Galaxy: 53-47 to Liberal in South Australia

Labor’s primary vote crashes in South Australia, amid an electoral landscape transformed by the Nick Xenophon Team and a recently published draft redistribution.

The Advertiser today carries a poll of South Australian state voting intention from Galaxy, which records the Liberals with a two-party preferred lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on the result that failed to deliver them victory at the election in March 2014. However, the two-party vote is becoming difficult to parse in what now looks like a three-party system, with primary votes showing the Liberals on 35%, Labor on 27% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 22%, with the Greens on 7% and Family First on 5%. Personal ratings indicate Premier Jay Weatherill’s gloss has entirely worn off, with 14% rating his performance good, 41% fair and 37% poor, but Opposition Leader Steven Marshall does little better, respectively at 11%, 40% and 36%. The two leaders are tied at 31% on the question of preferred premier, compared with Weatherill’s lead of 37% to 27% at the last such poll in February. The poll was conducted last Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 869.

This is an opportune time for me to finally mention the recently published draft redistribution proposal. The Liberals have once again been disappointed in their hope for a set of boundaries that fully compensates for the mismatch between votes and seats that has now cost them two elections in a row, although the redistribution is broadly favourable for them overall. The Labor-held seats of Elder and Mawson have been made notionally Liberal, but the reverse has happened in Fisher, which Labor spectacularly won at a by-election in December 2014 after the death of long-serving Liberal-turned-independent member Bob Such. The seat has been transformed by the absorption of the Labor stronghold of Morphett Vale, and its name is to be changed to Hurtle Vale. Other name changes are Ashford to Badcoe, Napier to King, Mitchell to Black, Bright to Gibson and Goyder to Narungga. Submissions in response to the draft, of which there were a great many, closed on Friday, and can be perused here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Liberal in South Australia”

  1. Labor still in with a big chance even if they lose 53-47.
    Health and Families SA are killing Labor as well as the It’s Time factor, but the Libs are so inept that they aren’t seen as attractive alternative.

  2. The non-NXT state parties in SA might be justified in some happiness that SA has a no more than 3-months outside Parliament for Ministers rule in is contitution, so Senator Xenophon cannot rule from the Senate. Their Commonwealth counterparts may not be so happy his vote cannot be dragged down by state government factors.

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