Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Coalition drops a point on the Essential Research rolling average, while further questions record an across-the-board drop in confidence in a range of public institutions since last year.

The latest Essential Research fortnightly rolling aggregate result has Labor’s lead back to 52-48 after two weeks at 51-49, with the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10% and the Nick Xenophon Team down one to 3%. Other questions find an across-the-board decline in trust towards a range of institutions since the question was last posed in October. At the top of the list are state and federal police, followed by the High Court and the ABC, while political parties take the wooden spoon, followed by business groups, state and federal parliaments, religious organisations and trade unions. A series of indicators involving personal wellbeing were reported as having improved over the past 50 years, while job security and political leadership had become much worse. A question on trust in handling personal information found either a lot of trust or some trust for security agencies (51%), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (46%) and banks (45%), compared with 20% for social media sites.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,806 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 29s29 seconds ago
    #Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 41 (0) ALP 36 (0) GRN 9 (0) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m2 minutes ago
    #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 50 (0) ALP 50 (0) #auspol

  3. Bridget McKenzie yet another hopeless National but Dai Le is impressive. Shame she is a Lib. Rowan Dean is …well… Rowan Dean.
    Douggie and Larissa Waters doing well.

  4. No change. That’s amazing! After the spectacle of a precarious parliament on the brink of no confidence and the scalp of an opposition front bencher, no change. Evened each other out perhaps?

  5. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-turnbull-trails-shorten-with-coalition-and-alp-in-tie/news-story/30cf1b393b8511a89152e71a718235f9

    The Australian 10:31PM September 12, 2016
    Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

    Malcolm Turnbull reaches his ­one-year anniversary as Prime Minister with a worse approval rating than Bill Shorten and his government tied at 50-50 with the ­opposition.

    Despite Labor’s calamity last week with the forced resignation of prominent senator Sam Dastyari from its frontbench, there has been no gain for the Coalition according to the latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The ­Australian. The poll of 1680 voters, surveyed from last Thursday to Sunday, shows no change in the past fortnight in the primary vote for the major parties, with the ­Coalition remaining on 41 per cent, Labor on 36 per cent, the Greens at 9 per cent and minor parties and independents at a combined 14 per cent. Based on preference flows from the July election, the two-party-preferred vote is unchanged at 50-50.

  6. sohar @ #2752 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 10:36 pm

    So still 50-50 in Newspoll. Nothing much changed over the two weeks since the last one.

    I always assume there is a couple of weeks, maybe more, of a lag in events showing their effect.
    So I see this poll as reflective of how things were a couple of weeks ago.
    I expect the next one to start showing up last weeks disasters.

  7. c@tmomma @ #2705 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 9:44 pm

    Nicole,
    In Unity is strength
    Which is why I am surprised you have done no more than a metaphorical stamping of the feet. Or, have you reached out to all the other little fishes and organised a co-ordinated approach to protest? Over and above persistently bringing it up at your ALP Branch meetings, that is?

    I am already joined with others. Why would I split off? You digress and ignore how big this is. There is nothing that can demonstrate a lack of consensus better than a clear and undeniable unwillingness by a large proportion of people to comply and fill out the Census as directed. Be that through not completing names and addresses, filling it out wrong, delaying until the last minute or just not completing it. Nothing can compare to this in sending a loud and clear message to the ABS. They will have no other choice then but to fall back on their contingency plans. Song comes to mind.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wos-dDxpJlQ

  12. Rowan Dean is a disgrace, his comments re gay marriage at the end of Q&A were ordinary at best more likely intentionally divisive and ignorant.

    Interesting comment from the Nat that she would wants the plebiscite to be binding – they did not take that to the election

  13. Labor will not support funding for the yes, no campaigns.

    Therefore , if the Libs tie the funding to the plebiscite legislation it will not pass.

    Cheers.

  14. TPOF yeah I got the feeling that although most people strongly disapproved of Dastayari, once he resigned the air went completely out of public interest in the story

  15. Malcolm Turnbull reaches his ­one-year anniversary as Prime Minister with a worse approval rating than Bill Shorten and his government tied at 50-50 with the ­opposition.

    Has the Malcolm Experiment failed then? 😀

  17. jamesmassola: Breaking: cabinet proposal is for each side of the #SSM marriage plebiscite – the yes and no campaigns – to receive $7.5million each
    SenatorWong: Taxpayers to fund the hate campaign on top of the non-binding plebiscite. Turnbull’s capitulation goes on & on & on twitter.com/jamesmassola/s…

  18. Cat, we have approximately 20, 000,000 adults in Australia. 15% of them is 3 million people.

    If we end up with 15% of households where no adult in that house has completed a Census, that will be about a 3 million people strong protest. You show me a protest that large anywhere else. That does not even include all of those who are filling it in late, have missed names and addresses or filled it out incorrectly. Yet Cat, you think a street protest or occupying the ABS would be stronger than that? Hardly. This is big.

  22. Senator Penny Wong ‏@SenatorWong 8m8 minutes ago
    Senator Penny Wong Retweeted James Massola
    Taxpayers to fund the hate campaign on top of the non-binding plebiscite. Turnbull’s capitulation goes on & on & on

  23. scoutdog @ #2762 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 10:46 pm

    Rowan Dean is a disgrace, his comments re gay marriage at the end of Q&A were ordinary at best more likely intentionally divisive and ignorant.
    Interesting comment from the Nat that she would wants the plebiscite to be binding – they did not take that to the election

    Lecturing GLBTIQ people on which position is in their interest is utterly revolting and paternalistic. Dean is like those older white men who declare there are no greater opponents of racism than them, but ……

    I don’t know who Dean was trying to appeal to in that closing peroration, but it was not people in the GLBTIQ community.

  24. nicole @ #2768 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 10:53 pm

    Cat, we have approximately 20, 000,000 adults in Australia. 15% of them is 3 million people.
    If we end up with 15% of households where no adult in that house has completed a Census, that will be about a 3 million people strong protest. You show me a protest that large anywhere else. That does not even include all of those who are filling it in late, have missed names and addresses or filled it out incorrectly. Yet Cat, you think a street protest or occupying the ABS would be stronger than that? Hardly. This is big.

    Nicole, you are a legend in your own mind.
    The census will be completed, one way or another, and the nation will move on.

  26. The attitudes of the panelists was revealed in the response to the video question from the National Senator’s brother.

    Larissa Waters and Doug Cameron were outstanding

  27. doyley @ #2769 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 10:53 pm

    TPOF,
    I would not be surprised if a lot of people were simply asking, ” Who, or what, is a Sam Dastyari ? ”
    Cheers.

    In my opinion, a lot of people are seeing the issue confirm their low opinion of ALL politicians. Certainly the exceedingly fine distinction that has been argued in regard to Senator D will be lost on the public, who will say ‘a plague on all your houses’.

  29. Dean is like those older white men who declare there are no greater opponents of racism than them

    I posted last night those MPs fighting 18C and the vast majority of them are old white males.

  30. “A year ago, Mr Turnbull cited the fact Tony Abbott had lost “30 consecutive Newspoll surveys” as a reason for launching his successful challenge. In the 20 Newspoll surveys taken since the leadership change, the Coalition has won nine, Labor has won four and seven have been tied.”

    I guess you could say that it is 11 Newspolls since they won one, nineteen to go…

  32. TPOF,

    A very very good point. Yet the tin ear liberals continued with it today. But that was no real surprise as they are simply a opposition in waiting with nothing else to offer.

    Cheers and a good night go all.

  35. bemused @ #2753 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 10:37 pm

    Bridget McKenzie yet another hopeless National but Dai Le is impressive. Shame she is a Lib. Rowan Dean is …well… Rowan Dean.
    Douggie and Larissa Waters doing well.

    I have recorded it. I never knew Doug Cameron was on. I will have to watch it now. Is Rowan being a rude git trying to talk over Larissa and Doug? He seems to like to talk over the ladies more. Larissa must be fending him off good by the sounds. I wish Terri Butler was on. She does really well fending off the RWNJ’s.

  36. Paul Bongiorno
    Paul Bongiorno – Verified account ‏@PaulBongiorno

    Why should taxpayers fund the Yes and No case. It’s supposed to be an opinion poll not a manipulation?
    11:58 PM – 11 Sep 2016 from Canberra, Australian Capital Territory
    192 RETWEETS218 LIKES

  37. davrosz: Lachlan Murdoch more rightwing than any Australian politician, says Mitchell. Wow. #lateline

    Wow indeed with the likes of Hanson Bernadi et al in our Federal Parliament

  39. nicole @ #2785 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 11:08 pm

    bemused @ #2753 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 10:37 pm

    Bridget McKenzie yet another hopeless National but Dai Le is impressive. Shame she is a Lib. Rowan Dean is …well… Rowan Dean.
    Douggie and Larissa Waters doing well.

    I have recorded it. I never knew Doug Cameron was on. I will have to watch it now. Is Rowan being a rude git trying to talk over Larissa and Doug? He seems to like to talk over the ladies more. Larissa must be fending him off good by the sounds. I wish Terri Butler was on. She does really well fending off the RWNJ’s.

    Dean was relatively subdued tonight, partly as Tony Jones gave the call to Dai Le or Bridget McKenzie rather than Dean for the conservative POV.
    I thought it was a reasonable show.

  41. bemused @ #2774 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 10:56 pm

    nicole @ #2768 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 10:53 pm

    Cat, we have approximately 20, 000,000 adults in Australia. 15% of them is 3 million people.
    If we end up with 15% of households where no adult in that house has completed a Census, that will be about a 3 million people strong protest. You show me a protest that large anywhere else. That does not even include all of those who are filling it in late, have missed names and addresses or filled it out incorrectly. Yet Cat, you think a street protest or occupying the ABS would be stronger than that? Hardly. This is big.

    Nicole, you are a legend in your own mind.
    The census will be completed, one way or another, and the nation will move on.

    So the ABS was lying then in their PIA when they said they would fall back on their contingency plans in the event of a loss in public trust? Is that what you are saying? Should I not believe them?

  42. That information about the plebiscite was a leak. Another one where Turnbull is also reported telling how important it was not to let the details leak.

  45. Re the plebiscite funding decision I wonder
    a. Was there any bargaining, was $7.5M per side the result of a ‘split the difference ‘ compromise, how was the figure determined?
    b. What else was decided, the question, timing?
    c. How long did it take -6hours? Like last time?

  46. I thought it was a reasonable show.

    I was thoroughly unimpressed. Why was the Labor guy so dead-set against donations reform? If you have to change the Constitution to make it clear that freedom of financially-backed political speech applies only to natural persons and not legal-fiction entities like corporations and unions, then change the bloody Constitution and make it happen.

    Maybe we can all vote on that in February in lieu of the SSM plebiscite after Labor votes it into oblivion?

  47. MarkDiStef: Newspoll, net satisfaction

    Post spill
    Gillard +19
    Turnbull +18

    Wk 1 parliament
    Gillard +15
    Turnbull -18

    Wk 2
    Gillard + 7
    Turnbull -19

  48. The net sats are a killer for Turnbull.
    If he hasn’t got the backing of his party and isn’t PPM together with his parties policies on the nose where does he go from here?

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