Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Coalition drops a point on the Essential Research rolling average, while further questions record an across-the-board drop in confidence in a range of public institutions since last year.

The latest Essential Research fortnightly rolling aggregate result has Labor’s lead back to 52-48 after two weeks at 51-49, with the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10% and the Nick Xenophon Team down one to 3%. Other questions find an across-the-board decline in trust towards a range of institutions since the question was last posed in October. At the top of the list are state and federal police, followed by the High Court and the ABC, while political parties take the wooden spoon, followed by business groups, state and federal parliaments, religious organisations and trade unions. A series of indicators involving personal wellbeing were reported as having improved over the past 50 years, while job security and political leadership had become much worse. A question on trust in handling personal information found either a lot of trust or some trust for security agencies (51%), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (46%) and banks (45%), compared with 20% for social media sites.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,806 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  3. One dark, stormy night,
    Not a star was in sight,
    And the north wind came
    Howling down the line.
    There stood a brave engineer
    The wreck of the number nine featuring Malcom (call me hank) Turnbull.
    Key of G. 🙂

  4. Ratsak

    Same old “‘X’ has got questions to answer”.

    The problem with our Press is that they don’t know what the ‘questions’ are.

  9. Murphy’s column in the Guardian is one of the better ones, she asks

    [
    Malcolm Turnbull is on the record supporting change to disclosure rules, so why not take control of the issue?
    ]

    I think we know the answer to that.
    The PM is incapable of decisive action on anything substantial.

  10. Lizzie
    Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 5:18 pm
    Remember this in May 2016?

    Companies linked to Chinese conglomerate Yuhu Group made a donation to then trade minister Andrew Robb’s fundraising entity the day the trade deal was clinched.

    Chinese money has become so important to Australian political parties that, at a recent glitzy fundraiser, Victorian Liberal president Michael Kroger made sure there was an interpreter to translate the auction.

    Donors with strong links to China contributed $555,000 to the two major parties and fundraising entities in Victoria, a Fairfax Media analysis of Australian Electoral Commission data for 2014-15 reveals.

    At least three donors failed to disclose their contributions to the Australian Electoral Commission.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/chinese-interests-play-an-increasing-role-in-australian-and-political-donations-20160517-goxl8b.html

    So, essentially the Lib/Lab dominated parliament is a Chinese funded cartel.

  11. Shorten, with help from Di Natale, subjects Turnbull to a little pressure:

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is under pressure to reform political donations amid revelations a Chinese donor paid a debt for Labor’s Sam Dastyari.

    Both Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and Greens leader Richard Di Natale have written to Mr Turnbull calling for his support to change the rules, including a ban on foreign donations.

    Labor has promised to introduce legislation “as soon as practicable” to force disclosure of donations over $1000 – down from the current $13,200 – and ban donation splitting between branches of parties.

    It also wants to prohibit anonymous contributions above $50 and stop foreign donations entirely.

    “With the majority of Australians and the 226 senators and members of parliament in support of donation reform, it is paramount that you as prime minister support reform,” Mr Shorten wrote on Tuesday.

    The Labor leader also requests support to ask a parliamentary committee to look into “real time” disclosure of political donations and whether limits should be imposed on candidate contributions.

    Senator Di Natale also wrote to Mr Shorten, offering to work constructively with both parties to bring about changes.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/labor-greens-write-to-pm-over-donations/news-story/5de2ee3870e4ca1abe766a47a5be39e1

  12. Duterte is IMO different from Trump.
    President Duterte’s behaviour is pretty well entirely consistent with what candidate Duterte promised.
    Further, candidate Duterte’s promises were coherent and consistent.
    The reason that Duterte currently enjoys a 93% popularity rating is that he is making a direct and practical difference to the lives of poor pilipinos y pilipinas.
    They are already safer and they know it.
    There is neither coherence nor consistency in Trump’s views.


  13. Doyley
    Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 4:15 pm

    The same calls were made for Bill Shorten to stand down in a previous MSM frenzy led by Fairfax.

    Bill Shorten is doing the right thing standing by Sam D.

    Cheers.

    Exactly
    Kill Bill had a nice ring to it: what should this little effort be called?

  15. Labor has promised to introduce legislation “as soon as practicable” to force disclosure of donations over $1000 – down from the current $13,200 – and ban donation splitting between branches of parties.

    Just as I said he would days ago when this whole stupidity broke. The Libs are imbeciles for going after Dastyari. It just has given Shorten the absolute perfect opportunity to Govern from Opposition (again).

    Turnbull’s fucked. He can’t agree with Shorten because that just makes him look weak and pointless, not to mention the fact the party isn’t going to give up all that non-disclosed and foreign lucre without one hell of a fight.

    But he can’t disagree either now that he and his front bench have dived head first saying foreign money is teh Evil and Dastyari has to be sacked for exceeding the disclosure rules, not just following them.

    Judgement to Turnbull is as much a stranger as shame is to Pyne.

  16. Brandis doesnt resign over his diaries is another example.

    Has any Australian Attorney General lost more court cases than Brandis…. a total goose

  17. I don’t think Mr Bean should be demoted etc but promotion should be a long way off for him.
    I still don’t understand how any Senator can ask a business exec to pay for their travel overspend. It shows really bad judgement.

  24. Alice Workman retweeted
    RN Drive
    32m32 minutes ago
    RN Drive ‏@RNDrive
    2/ @Tony_Burke: … he was going to dedicate his media conference to whichever Labor member of parliament might be in trouble…back home?

    Alice Workman retweeted
    RN Drive
    33m33 minutes ago
    RN Drive ‏@RNDrive
    1/ @Tony_Burke: Could you imagine John Howard being at an international conference and deciding …

  25. The myth of Cassandra
    In Greek mythology, Cassandra was one of the princesses of Troy, daughter of Priam and Hecuba. According to the Myth, Cassandra was astonishingly beautiful and blessed with the gift of foreseeing the future. Her curse was that no one believed her, a fact that weighed heavily on the destruction of Troy during the Trojan War.

    I expect that others have posted about this myth.

    The non-myth story is that of Mr. Malcolm Bligh Turnbull who although always wrong is destined to be always believed to be correct.
    Another aspect of this modern day tragedy is that many, ordinarily rational citizens, continue to believe in a manner reminiscent of religious fervour.
    There is no know cure for this illness at present although some believe that removing funding from Medicare may be a cure. 🙄

  26. Bemused Comrade

    There should be the usual vampire movie tonight on SBS or one of the other high number junk channels …. they put one on every other night.

    In case you’re wondering, I won’t be watching it!

    And BTW I will not be having toast and sardines for breakfast tomorrow.

    And if you’ve got time, please tell me all what’s been going on on PB today …. I have been busy and I haven’t got the time to go over past pages!!!!

  28. Serial offender:

    Obama joins a long list of people whose mothers’ purity have been called into question by Duterte, including Pope Francis, Philippine bishops and a murdered journalist, as well as the drugs traffickers who are the main targets of his domestic law and order policies.

  30. Hmmm,
    Good grief, their ABC has been going hammer and tongs on Sam Dastyari, every news bulletin, every major news analysis – AM, The World Today, Pm.
    You’d think there might be something they needed to distract the population from, such as the deeply divided gov’t. Wot!

  31. The one non-partisan comment I will make about Sam Dastyari’s actions is that he must have had a brain snap, unusual for him, to have even contemplated asking a Chinese-Australian company owner to pay a debt for him. That must be the dumbest thing he has EVER done.

    Because it left the door open for the Liberals to trawl back through his history and dig up a connection to…Craig Thomson! Apparently the same go-to Chinese-Australian guy currying favour with BOTH major parties as a result of their policies to encourage overseas students to study in Australia and the opening up of the education sector to private training colleges. So he was asked to contribute to Craig Thomson’s legal bills, which he did, apparently.

    What it certainly shows is that the Coalition do NOT like being publicly humiliated by the Labor Party in parliament and they will come after you with fangs bared if it happens. As well as the bloodhounds in the media.

    You don’t even have to have done anything wrong, specifically, if the aroma around you can attract a few flies, so to speak.

    So the Coalition went for it hammer and tongs today. ‘The NSW Disease has infected the Federal Labor Party’; ‘sleaze’; ‘seduced’; ‘Shanghai Sam’.

    Still, let them have their Pyrrhic victory because Bill Shorten will win the war to starve them of funds.

  35. ‘Hmmm,
    Good grief, their ABC has been going hammer and tongs on Sam Dastyari, every news bulletin, every major news analysis – AM, The World Today, Pm.
    You’d think there might be something they needed to distract the population from, such as the deeply divided gov’t. Wot!’

    Indeed, PM seemed to devote half of the program to it, complete with Turnbull intoning gravely from OS, as if this was the greatest ever transgression known to man.

    Can’t wait for 7.30 to go completely overboard.

  36. I wonder if LNP stupid enough to ban chinese political donations?

    Not to worry. The Liberals will set up dummy Australian “foundations” that generous-minded Chinese donors keen to foster Australian democracy can contribute to.

  44. diogenes @ #143 Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 7:38 pm

    C@T
    Sammie also had a $40,000 legal fee paid by a Chinese businessman. It’s not like it’s a one off event. It’s a pattern.

    That was incurred on behalf of the Labor Party as a result of having to destroy Julia Gillard campaign material prepared for the 2013 election. If you are going to make accusations, it would be nice if you were a cut above the Liberal Party.

  45. OF THE 1%, BY THE 1%, FOR THE 1%
    By possible Clinton Secrtary of the Treasury , Stiglitz
    ….…… The top 1 percent have the best houses, the best educations, the best doctors, and the best lifestyles, but there is one thing that money doesn’t seem to have bought: an understanding that their fate is bound up with how the other 99 percent live. Throughout history, this is something that the top 1 percent eventually do learn. Too late.

    http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2011/05/top-one-percent-201105

  46. William, if you’re about, do you have any idea why gravatars are disappearing? Or why the blog won’t let me post, intermittantly?

  47. monica lynagh @ #146 Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 7:43 pm

    William, if you’re about, do you have any idea why gravatars are disappearing? Or why the blog won’t let me post, intermittantly?

    It seems to be all the “default” gravatars that are disappearing. Those who have uploaded their own seem to be ok. No idea why, but it may be unrelated to Crikey.

  48. [In 2014, Senator Dastyari declared that Yuhu Group – a subsidiary of a state-linked operation based in China – helped settle a legal matter for him.

    In the declaration filed on November 20, Senator Dastyari wrote “support for settlement of outstanding legal matter”.]

  50. You don’t seem to notice, Diogenes, that not only does Sam declare the gift, but he alsogives a truthful reason/i> for it.

    What he is being pressured for is obeying the rules, well within time, and stating the truth.

    This is, apparently, not permitted behaviour.

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