Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A new poll suggests Bill Shorten did a lot better out of the election campaign than Malcolm Turnbull, and finds a mixed response to the new Senate electoral system.

The latest result from the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds the Coalition down two points on the primary vote to 39%, but with Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred unchanged. Labor and the Greens are both unchanged, at 36% and 10% respectively. There are some interesting findings in the supplementary questions:

• Malcolm Turnbull is rated by 30% as best to lead the Liberal Party, down nine since March, with Julie Bishop up four to 16% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%.

• Conversely, Bill Shorten has done very well out of the election campaign, with 27% rating him best to lead Labor, up 12% since March, while Tanya Plibersek is down two to 12%, Anthony Albanese is down three to 11%, and Chris Bowen is down to 3%.

• Thirty-seven per cent say the found Senate voting more difficult under the new system compared with 19% for easier; 20% found the outcome more democratic, 15% less democratic, and 39% that it made no difference.

• The current state of the Australian economy is rated by 30% as good, 26% as poor and 41% as neither; 33% as heading in the right direction and 35% in the wrong direction; 27% as likely to improve over the next 12 months, versus 41% for worse.

• Fifty-five per cent said they would support a national ban on greyhound racing, versus 27% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,599 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. daretotread @ #2095 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 1:50 pm

    Bemused
    History!!!
    Kennedy and his brother were asassinated. Reagan was seriously injured in an assassination attempt. These were both in my lifetime, so I think that it a gun culture such as the USA, assassination of an unpopular president is always a possibilty.
    I was however largely if not completely joking which should have been blleding bloody obvious.

    I did not mean to refer only to that post.
    There is just a consistent tendency through your posts to leap to the most extreme interpretations / conclusions as should have been conveyed by my using the word ‘always’. By focusing on just one post you are evading the more general question.

    BTW, I am still waiting to find out about the ‘Peach Movement’. Rebellious orchardists?

  2. nicole @ #2047 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 11:29 am

    lizzie @ #2044 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 11:10 am

    The United Nations has found that Australia’s immigration detention regime breaches international law, amounting to arbitrary and indefinite detention, and that men, women and children are held in violent and dangerous conditions.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jul/25/ferrovial-staff-risk-prosecution-for-managing-australian-detention-camps

    And now we have another three years of a government who does not give a rat’s ass about such things. I wonder if there is any hope that Turnbull might take UN condemnation a little more seriously than Abbott. One can only hope.

    Almost makes you wish Rudd would succeed in his quest to be UNSecGen, doesn’t it?

  3. Seems that people are beginning to wake up to the reality of spiv city under Baird’s development at all costs rule.

  4. Not sure if this has already been posted.

    Victorians do not want “a harmful public vote” on gay marriage, Premier Daniel Andrews has claimed in a strongly worded letter to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull calling for a free vote on equality.

    And Mr Andrews has not ruled out pursuing state-based reform if the federal parliament fails to act on marriage equality.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/samesex-marriage-plebiscite-premier-daniel-andrews-attacks-malcolm-turnbull-20160724-gqcu45.html

  5. daretotread @ #2100 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 2:01 pm

    Meher
    I really hope you are right.

    I’d prefer never to find out.
    Meher, as I made clear the comparison between Hitler and Trump is not in regard to specific policies; it is in regard to those around thinking that what they say they will do might be horrible, but they won’t really do it. And your post has the same rationale. My point is that the risk is not worth taking, given the potential consequences if the risk eventuates.

    For what it’s worth, I can’t get the thought out of my mind that Trump’s whole candidacy started out as a massive publicity stunt that got completely out of hand as the more extreme and ridiculous he became, the more support he got in the primaries. If his rise was made into a movie, nobody would believe it was not a satire.

    Nevertheless, I come back to the same point. The risk is too great.

  7. Bemused

    I write long posts. i spend far, far too much time here as it is. proof reading is a very low priority. i expect people with brains can figure it out, the others do not matter to me much.

    Sorry to all you pedants out there – I value you skills at proof reading byt i have them not.

  8. Leroy
    Mike Baird’s Coalition government in NSW has surrendered most of its huge lead over Luke Foley’s troubled Labor Party, state-based polling from Essential Research shows.

    Sale of ” polls & wires” should be significant issue at next state election, that & the unfolding light rail debacle

  9. TPOF

    Take a look at the almost universally hideous people who ran against trump. When Jeb Bush is the most moderate you know you have a problem.

  11. Leroy….
    Unless Packers mum kicks in with another huge donation to buy more air rights off Baird for James’s little aparment tower pretending to be a casino

  12. daretotread @ #2107 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 2:10 pm

    Bemused
    I write long posts. i spend far, far too much time here as it is. proof reading is a very low priority. i expect people with brains can figure it out, the others do not matter to me much.
    Sorry to all you pedants out there – I value you skills at proof reading byt i have them not.

    Oh I get it. You want people to decode your gibberish. That was a relatively minor point but your spell checker should pick up most things.

    Now back to my question about there being a consistent tendency through your posts to leap to the most extreme interpretations / conclusions? Care to respond?

  13. sceptic @ #2108 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 2:12 pm

    Leroy
    Mike Baird’s Coalition government in NSW has surrendered most of its huge lead over Luke Foley’s troubled Labor Party, state-based polling from Essential Research shows.
    Sale of ” polls & wires” should be significant issue at next state election, that & the unfolding light rail debacle

    Not being in NSW, I am not as up to date on state issues, but I don’t think you will find many Victorian voters who think privatising gas and electricity was a great idea. Labor should go in hard using the Victorian example.

  14. briefly @ #2090 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 1:40 pm

    daretotread @ #2079 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 1:10 pm
    Well…on the face of it, if material circumstances explained everything, things should be improving in American life. Unemployment has fallen a long way, underemployment is also declining, albeit slowly. As well, per capita incomes have begun to grow again. Home ownership rates are picking up and personal consumption spending has been improving.
    So while economic factors must be a factor, they explain neither the pity nor the rancour that Trump has elicited.
    American discourse is aboutoppression. Black and Latino Americans certainly do experience systemic and violent oppression on a continental and lifelong scale. “Black Lives Matter” is a visible and meaningful response to this. The Trump slogan “Make America Great Again” invokes the past. It is not only nostalgic. Its implicit premise is “loss”. It contains the proposition that a past greatness has been lost together with the assurance that the loss will be redeemed. Loss can take many forms and arise from all kinds of causes, but is nearly always a source of grief. That’s the feeling I get from America. It is experiencing a collective grief. If you’re feeling bereaved then, naturally, redemption is a powerful pitch. This is Trump’s offer.
    If bereavement is the underlying theme…what is it that Americans feel they have lost? If they experience betrayal it is because they have lost trust in each other and in their republic. If they feel self-pity, they have lost their sense of security. If they feel angry, it is because fear has displaced hope.
    On an interesting note, I saw a stat the other day that indicated Americans are becoming notably less likely to hold a religious affiliation. This is a good thing, for mine, but is also consistent with their disillusionment.

    When I hear “Make America great again” or “Make America safe again”, I think of that commonly used saying “Back in the good old days.” Seems it is this sentiment his campaign is appealing to. Also didn’t Hitler use a similar technique in Germany? I’m pretty sure he did.

  16. The rise of Trump has only accentuated feelings of powerlessness and anxiety among many. His success looks like a failure of democracy and yet is nothing but an example of American democracy at its most disruptive, most outspoken and most febrile. In one sense, it is totally remarkable that a grass-roots/populist democratic expression has seized the Republican Party, the party of inherited wealth, conformism and entrenched privilege. Even so, this is all very perplexing for the democrat. Democracy is supposed to protect the people from the despot, not deliver them into the hands of tyranny, which is what Trump represents for those who fear him. De Tocqueville had a few things to say on this matter 250 years ago.

    Trump is, doubtless, a reflection of his country. And America is, of course, a deeply divided society. The divides are many but above all they are racial and they have violent expression. In this context, it makes perverse sense for their democracy to choose an outspoken bigot as a leader – a leader who will attempt to use force against the readily objectified outsiders. This has the appearance of the possible election of a president by a lynch mob. If this turns out to be the case, we will conclude that enough has changed in America since Salem.

    For those Americans who believe in both the institutions of their republic as well as the claims they have as equal citizens – claims on which their democracy is founded – the prospect of Trump must be a call to action. Somehow, America has to face its own demons in the coming election. I’ve always been an optimist about America. I feel less so today.

  18. Bemused

    As i have noted here many times, I do not have a spell checker on this site. It disappeared in a cloud of smoke one day and I have no idea how to get it back. Yes i have tried all the obvious things.

  20. Hmmmm

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/eric-abetz-applauds-great-call-for-crackdown-on-muslim-immigration/news-story/8675e9d23692c3ec6abd459876f16ce0

    I don’t know about you, but if my great uncle had been a leading Nazi and ‘the hand that signed the paper’ on 10,000s of French Jews, Gypsies/Roma, and other ‘undesirables’, I’d we really wary about being seen endorsing the sorts of policies and rhetoric that led to uncle Otto’s job. I wonder of the gay staffer is also calling for ex-Nazi Calvinists to be banned, as from what I’ve seen their kids can be pretty rabid and anti-gay too. he is a vile excuse for a human. ISIS attacks in much of the west seems to be a mental health and marginalised losers issue more than any organised terrorist cells. this talks of banning will marginalise muslims already here. then we’ll get to internment. and then what?

  21. meher baba @ #2097 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 1:52 pm

    Without in any way wishing to resort to Godwin’s law, I have to say I think comparisons between Trump and Hitler are completely ludicrous.
    Hitler’s Lebensraum agenda was an expansive, militarily aggressive policy which was a threat to all of Europe and, consequently, to the entire world.
    Trump, on the other hand, is something of a throwback to old style US Republican “isolationism”. He wants to greatly reduce the US military presence around much of the world, and draw the nation back from its self-appointed role as “world policeman”. He wants to make peace with Russia and try somehow to resolve the Israel-Arab conflict.
    One exception to this is that he wants to continue to make war against Islamic extremists in the Middle East. But that’s what the US has been doing for 15 years. Trump isn’t proposing to do anything new, simply to do it better. Like he is going to somehow stop illegal immigration from the south and Muslim immigration from all over. How is he going to do these things? He doesn’t know any better than we do: as I said the man is a snake oil salesman.
    And the fact that Trump is first and foremost a salesman also means that I’m not particularly frightened by the thought that he will soon have his finger on the red button. He’s not at all a lunatic: he’s very clever and calculating. I reckon his current mindset goes something like this.
    1) I’m going to keep banging on about all the problems that most bother people: Muslims, illegal immigrants, law and order, unresolved wars in the Middle East, diminished employment opportunities in the rust belt areas of the US, middle class anger.
    2) I’m going to continue to paint very ambitious, big picture solutions to all these problems. The scoffers will scoff, but I built the Trump Tower and did all sorts of other amazing things,. so the public will have faith in me.
    3) If I win, I’m certain to find that many of my promises are going to be really difficult or even impossible to implement. But everyone knows that I’m the sort of guy who’s nimble on his feet and continually looking for the next new hustle, so I’ll be able to keep them all on board as I keep searching for solutions.
    This is the “value proposition” (to use Trump-like language) that Trump is putting to the American people. It’s not “vote for my platform” or “vote for my party”, it’s very much “vote for me”. And not because I’m an authoritarian figure, but because I’m the smartest guy in the room and therefore, while you might not feel that you can trust everything I say, you can trust me to do my best to solve your problems.
    It’s a throwback to an old style of politics that was common in both the US and many other places (including Australia) in the 19th and early 20th centuries, and is still popular through much of the third world. It involves picking on a large, dissatisfied constituency and telling them “If you vote for me, I’ll take care of you.” It’s a highly materialistic and pragmatic form of politics.
    Hitler’s politics, on the other hand, was idealistic and universalist, bordering on the millenarian. Trump is nothing like that at all.

    Some very good points you make there Meher. There ARE many differences. As to Godwin’s Law, I am a bit of a rebel where that law is concerned. I think that regardless of how many or how great are the contrasts, there is no reason why we cannot compare regardless. It is not inconceivable that people are going to explore and use some tactics and techniques used during that period because they were so effective, ie. garnering support and propaganda techniques. Also I am rather fond of that old George Santayana quote: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” That is why I think such reflection and discussion should continue. Prevention is always better than cure.

  22. [BTW, I am still waiting to find out about the ‘Peach Movement’. Rebellious orchardists?]

    I wondered too – is it what happens if you eat too much slightly under-ripe stone fruit?

  24. daretotread @ #2118 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 2:34 pm

    Bemused
    As i have noted here many times, I do not have a spell checker on this site. It disappeared in a cloud of smoke one day and I have no idea how to get it back. Yes i have tried all the obvious things.

    You browser will have a spell check either as part of it or available as an add-in.

  25. The other huge problem with phonetc spelling is dialect.

    Wat will all those wee Scortish lussies rite as they go bi the carstle. Not to mentyon fesh and cheps in NZ.

  26. It’s amusing to drop in here at the moment.

    A certain sect seem to be having a big falling out.

    Scrolling is a required skill.

  28. sustainable future @ #2122 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 2:41 pm

    BTW, I am still waiting to find out about the ‘Peach Movement’. Rebellious orchardists?

    I wondered too – is it what happens if you eat too much slightly under-ripe stone fruit?

    A possibility I hadn’t considered, but quite alarming. 😆

  29. daretotread @ #2098 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 1:59 pm

    Briefly
    I will not argue with your stats

    …and yet you try to invent some anyway.

    The problem you have is that, for example, employment in auto-making has been rising again. The picture you’re drawing is not accurate. Working people are still tending to vote Democratic, regardless of their racial heritage. The Red States, where Trump will be strongest, are not the one-time manufacturing giants. Some of these, including, especially, Ohio, will be swing States this time, but then they have always been swing States.

    There is a lot more to this election than the disaffection of cranky, ageing white males who used to work in manufacturing back in the 1980s and 90s.

  31. PhoenixRed
    “That’s one reason I dislike moves to change spelling to make it more phonetic.”

    Excellent point. Given that modern English is drawn from a variety of languages, you can usually tell the origin of a word from its spelling. “Phonetic” and “phoenix” are obviously Greek, because they retain ‘ph’ (from Greek letter phi). Latin had ‘f’, so words like ‘firm’ and ‘fabulous’ show their Latin roots. (Sometimes words took detours along the way; ‘fantastic’ originally came from Greek, but was Latinised quite late to replace ‘ph’ with ‘f’ – although both ‘phantastic’ and ‘fantastic’ were in English usage until the 20th century.)
    Then again, I can see the benefits of a phonetic language for non-native speakers. When I was in Turkey, how a word was spelled told me how it should be pronounced. When Kemal Ataturk transliterated Turkish from Arabic to a Western alphabet in 1928, the written Turkish language became phonetic.

  36. Briefly

    I am rather more inclined to trust MichaelMoore on the way the manufacturing workers will vote than you. But hey!! You are omnicient.
    The issues re auto workers are more than JUST emplyment – it is wages and security that matter too.

  39. bemused

    What browser do you use?

    Don’t waste your time. I posted explicitly for the poster multiple times on how to turn on spellchecking in Firefox.

    Scroll past the drivel.

  41. ctar1 @ #2139 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 3:03 pm

    bemused

    What browser do you use?

    Don’t waste your time. I posted explicitly for the poster multiple times on how to turn on spellchecking in Firefox.
    Scroll past the drivel.

    Maybe she will succumb to my great personal charm in the delivery of the message. 😛

  42. barney in saigon @ #2115 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 2:30 pm

    phoenixred @ #2050 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 11:34 am

    Why isn’t phonetic spelled the way it sounds?

    That’s one reason I dislike moves to change spelling to make it more phonetic.
    You lose the etymological information that the spelling contains.

    In any case, whose pronunciation do you use to construct the ‘improved’ spelling?

    Mine or yours? The people from Oxford or those from Ireland? Those from Michigan or those from Alabama? The people from Karachi or those from New Delhi?

    I well remember my first staff meeting at a new school the day before school opened a very long time ago.

    We had a young male teacher fresh from the US, very, very bright, with a shock of long, prematurely greying, frizzy hair, sticking out all over his head rather like Einstein’s, and he was a double major in Physics and English.

    On staff we had an English Head of Department who thought she knew everything.

    The new US teacher said to the headmistress ‘Excuse me ma’am, can you tell me the schedule (he pronounced it ‘skedule’) for opening day?’

    The English HOD interrupted in a condescending way,
    ‘Shedule!’

    To which the physics/english bod said, instantly,
    ‘Oh yeah? Where did you go to shool?’

    Still cracks me up, and it is the sort of retort you usually think of as you leave the room, or in the still watches of the night.

  43. Kim Beazley on Sky last night…..some excerpts……and a good observation re Trump
    Sky News Australia
    18h18 hours ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Kim Beazley says he was ‘very impressed’ by Bill Shorten’s campaign #sundaylive http://snpy.tv/2akaY0z

    Sky News Australia
    18h18 hours ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Kim Beazley says recent Senate voting reforms were ‘tailor-made’ for the election of @PaulineHansonOz #sundaylive http://snpy.tv/2akbHii

    Sky News Australia
    18h18 hours ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Kim Beazley says the Trans-Pacific Partnership is ‘very important to economic progress in the region’ #sundaylive http://snpy.tv/2akczDF

    Sky News Australia
    18h18 hours ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Kim Beazley says @realDonaldTrump ‘has never seen an authoritarian he didn’t love’ #sundaylive http://snpy.tv/2a9vr7S

    Sky News Australia
    18h18 hours ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Kim Beazley says there is ‘a whole lot of baloney’ spoken about the Trans-Pacific Partnership #sundaylive http://snpy.tv/2aarmRA

  44. don @ #2142 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 3:07 pm

    barney in saigon @ #2115 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 2:30 pm

    phoenixred @ #2050 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 11:34 am

    —
    The new US teacher said to the headmistress ‘Excuse me ma’am, can you tell me the schedule (he pronounced it ‘skedule’) for opening day?’
    The English HOD interrupted in a condescending way,
    ‘Shedule!’
    To which the physics/english bod said, instantly,
    ‘Oh yeah? Where did you go to shool?’
    Still cracks me up, and it is the sort of retort you usually think of as you leave the room, or in the still watches of the night.

    Had to read that three times before I homed in on the spelling of the key word.

    Good one Don. 😀

  47. victoria @ #2143 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 3:08 pm

    Kim Beazley on Sky last night…..some excerpts……and a good observation re Trump
    —
    Sky News Australia
    18h18 hours ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Kim Beazley says the Trans-Pacific Partnership is ‘very important to economic progress in the region’ #sundaylive http://snpy.tv/2akczDF
    —
    Sky News Australia
    18h18 hours ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Kim Beazley says there is ‘a whole lot of baloney’ spoken about the Trans-Pacific Partnership #sundaylive http://snpy.tv/2aarmRA

    Just shows Beazley is not always right.
    The TPP is a dog. Labor should oppose it.

  48. bemused @ #2137 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 2:59 pm

    daretotread @ #2135 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 2:51 pm

    Firefox
    I will not shift to Chrome because it led to virus issues.

    Chrome will not cause virus issues any more than any other browser.
    Here is a good starting point for you.
    https://support.mozilla.org/en-US/questions/1102214

    I much prefer Chrome, but there are some sites I use on a semi-regular basis which are unusable on Chrome. For example, I can only access my ISP provider on Firefox.

    When I try to get to Google ads on Firefox, Chrome goes round in ever decreasing concentric circles.

    And Chrome is developed by google, as you know.

  49. dtt

    ‘Having come to power at the time of greatest US stregth, the Clintons may not be fully aware that the world has changed and the policies that worked in in 1994 are treacherous today.’

    Yes, because the two of them have been hiding in a basement without access to any forms of communication since 1994.

    A pity neither (or both) of them weren’t active in the international sphere at this time. Imagine if Bill had acted as some sort of quasi American Ambassador, sent by George Bush to help sort out diplomatic messes, or Hillary had been, say, Secretary of State.

    Then they might know something about the international scene since 1994…

  50. daretotread @ #2136 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 2:56 pm

    Briefly
    I am rather more inclined to trust MichaelMoore on the way the manufacturing workers will vote than you. But hey!! You are omnicient.
    The issues re auto workers are more than JUST emplyment – it is wages and security that matter too.

    Michael Moore is a movie director, so is naturally the go-to source for commentary on Trump and everything else. In America, as elsewhere, life can be expected to imitate art. I believe Moore is from a district in or near Flint, Michigan. In this case, his childhood neighbourhood is a social and economic wasteland. The trouble is, such places are not where Trump draws his support.

    These days, manufacturing represents only a relatively small part of the US economy, an even smaller share of employment though is generally still well-paid; and is not located in those States where Trump can be expected to do best. These States have never been manufacturing strongholds. Trump’s voter base tends not only to be whiter and older than the Democratic base, it is also notably wealthier. It’s all a lot more complex than it first appears to be.

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