Federal election live thread

Here is a thread for you to discuss events as they unfold. I’ll be providing commentary this evening on ABC Radio, together with Fran Kelly, Marius Benson and Sandy Aloisi, together with Senator Scott Ryan in the blue corner and Jenny McAllister in the red.

Usual story with exit polling: we’ve got Galaxy saying it’s 50-50 in selected marginal seats, but without knowing what those seats are, it’s very hard to say what that means.

UPDATE: Bug in comments relates what we need to know from Galaxy: 5.4% swing in SA, 3.9% swing in WA, 3.4% swing in Queensland, 3.2% in New South Wales, 3% in Tasmania, 2.9% in Victoria. And there’s a ReachTEL poll for Seven showing 51-49.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,912 comments on “Federal election live thread”

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  5. Not sure the partisans on either side predicting big wins for their mob and lamenting the absolute shocking state of the polling for not reflecting the mood in the street can crow, frankly.

    The polls called 50-50 +/-1 with an probable small LNP majority, and that’s what we’re going to get. Another victory for data.

  6. Brandis is pointing towards Labor about the Medicare text message, I am suprised that LNP will to go that far on defamation.

  7. Anthony once again reminding everyone that the current ABC numbers are based on predictions, not on actual numbers. He has just had a look at the raw numbers and quite a few seats will look a lot closer tomorrow.

  8. confessions @ #1746 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 12:43 am

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 6m6 minutes ago
    Pretty bleak when the Liberal hardcores that turn up for the party function don’t even realise when they’re supposed to clap on cue

    So tell us what your contribution was as supposed ALP member to the campaign?

  15. nicholashe: Penny Wong nails it again. Malcolm was negative and spoke to his party, Bill was positive and spoke to the country. #ausvotes #thisislabor

  17. Puff thats his son in law, James Brown, formerly of the Lowry Institute and now an Adjunct Associate Professor at Sydney Uni.

    Think also a former Army colleague of Crank

  23. Turnbull’s narcissistic traits have been triggered. The delusion will soon be replaced with rage. He’s so offended right now…

  24. Current Senate

    Tas: Lab 5, Lib 4, Green 2, Lambie
    NSW: Lab 4, Coal 5, Green 1, ON 1, LDP prob
    Vic: Lab 4, Lib 4, Green 2, Hinch, Last one could be Sex, Animal Lib, ON, or fuck nose
    QLD: Lab 4, LNP 4, Greens 1, ON 1, and the last two could go anywhere but LNP would be favoured to get 1
    SA: Lab 4, Lib 4, NXT 3, Green
    WA: Lab 4, Lib 5, Green 2

    Territories 1 Lab, 1 Lib each

    So:
    Lab 27
    Lib/Nat 26/27
    Green 9
    NXT 3
    ON 2
    Lambie
    Hinch
    and a few other odds and sods.

    So if the numbers stay around this (I’m assuming prefs going any which way won’t make them much of an influence) then Turnbull can basically go whistle re the chances of getting anything much through the Senate. It’s looking like a rotten Senate result for the government.

  25. I wish to add my thanks and congratulations to those very many PBers all over the country who actually fought the campaign …… door-knocking, on phones, doing HTVs.

    You did a magnificent job and this great result of putting the Waffler on toast is because of your efforts and the efforts of like-motivated supporters.

    I am proud to “know” you all.

  33. psyclaw @ #1776 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 12:51 am

    I wish to add my thanks and congratulations to those very many PBers all over the country who actually fought the campaign …… door-knocking, on phones, doing HTVs.
    You did a magnificent job and this great result of putting the Waffler on toast is because of your efforts and the efforts of like-motivated supporters.
    I am proud to “know” you all.

    Thanks Psyclaw, although I am humbled by the efforts of others.

  35. Seems to my uneducated mind that Antony Green’s explanation that all the ABC figures are based on projections devalues the whole thing somewhat
    Are goat entrails involved?

  36. outsider @ #1752 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 12:45 am

    Valedictory?

    ……………………………………………………

    He knows the knife in the back is coming – but not when.

    He even knows who will ensures it happens.

    But he has options – like the apartment on Central park NY or living in Tuscany or heaps of other places.

    The tories will cut him down now, when and as they see fit.

    So be it.

  40. Earlier Anthony Green said the ABC’s seat counts were based on their booth projections. He said that when they finish for the night they would revert back to AEC numbers and so the seat count would fall. That might be what some people are seeing.

  41. bemused @ #1759 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 12:46 am

    confessions @ #1746 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 12:43 am

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 6m6 minutes ago
    Pretty bleak when the Liberal hardcores that turn up for the party function don’t even realise when they’re supposed to clap on cue

    So tell us what your contribution was as supposed ALP member to the campaign?

    No response.
    An absolute fraud who does nothing except regurgitate the opinions of others and tries to pass them off as her own.
    Pathetic. An unbelievable numpty.

  42. Not a hope on those Durack numbers.

    Those AEC uncertain lists are where they aren’t sure who is #2 for 2PP. Grayndler is there and Albo isn’t in any danger

  43. Briefly @ 12.51am: I think you’ll find that the AEC’s category of “not yet determined” covers seats where they guessed wrongly about which two candidates should be included in the two-candidate preferred count at polling places. On the primary figures it looks most unlikely that the ALP could win Durack.

  46. Hello Mod Lib

    Hope that for old times sake you are lurking here to see the PB reaction to Turnbull’s true colours and abilities being well adjudicated on by the voters.

  49. Grey, on the other hand, could easily be a Liberal loss to NXT, if the ALP preferences flow tightly to the NXT candidate.

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