Federal election live thread

Here is a thread for you to discuss events as they unfold. I’ll be providing commentary this evening on ABC Radio, together with Fran Kelly, Marius Benson and Sandy Aloisi, together with Senator Scott Ryan in the blue corner and Jenny McAllister in the red.

Usual story with exit polling: we’ve got Galaxy saying it’s 50-50 in selected marginal seats, but without knowing what those seats are, it’s very hard to say what that means.

UPDATE: Bug in comments relates what we need to know from Galaxy: 5.4% swing in SA, 3.9% swing in WA, 3.4% swing in Queensland, 3.2% in New South Wales, 3% in Tasmania, 2.9% in Victoria. And there’s a ReachTEL poll for Seven showing 51-49.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,912 comments on “Federal election live thread”

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  1. Rossmcg

    Thanks for your 12.57am mentioning Abetz.

    My mind had not turned to Abetz all night and now it has. I feel joy.

  2. Those who think Malcolm’s “angry speech” is anomalous are not familiar with his behaviour whilst a merchant banker.

  3. b.c. @ #1791 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 12:56 am

    Earlier Anthony Green said the ABC’s seat counts were based on their booth projections. He said that when they finish for the night they would revert back to AEC numbers and so the seat count would fall. That might be what some people are seeing.

    …………………………………………..

    Antony runs his own algos from AEC data based on his years of experience, but this election was different – in many ways

  4. Antony Green’s projections aren’t always infallible.
    I expect Turnball will fall over the line, but it’s hardly stable government when half of his own party can’t stand him, the Senate will be more belligerent than the last one, and he won’t get anything contentious through a sitting of both houses.
    Shorten has enhanced himself, whether he wins or loses.
    The biggest booby prize goes to our dear media pundits, with the exception of course of William and a few others.

  6. Rossmcg @ 12.57am: Mr Nikolic seems to have made a point of behaving like a bully towards community members who disagreed with him. In a bigger State such things would probably sink without a trace, but Tasmanians have a way of noticing and remembering such things, especially since the Hare-Clark system used at State elections really forces them to focus on the personal characteristics of candidates. I was please to see that Mr Nikolic got his comeuppance.

  10. Briefly: I hope Anne Aly gets up, I wouldn’t want to think she loses because of that grubby campaign waged by Keenan and News Ltd.
    Great win for Matt Keogh by the way in Burt, that boy has some potential based on his appearance tonight on the ABC

  14. Briggs, Nicolic, Abbott’s “the Sexy One”, Karen McNamara, Natasha Griggs, Hendy …… there is much to celebrate.

  16. Wong was spot on when she said Shorten’s speech was for the country and MT’s for the partyroom. Talk about chalk and cheese.

  17. ratsak Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 12:51 am

    Current Senate

    Tas: Lab 5, Lib 4, Green 2, Lambie

    Not looking so good for Singh unfortunately, unless she picked up a lot of below the line votes

    WA: Lab 4, Lib 5, Green 2

    But looking good for Pratt.

  18. Bloody awful speech by Turnbull. We wuz robbed. Bad Unions. Honestly guys, I can still win this. You’ll all get your $50bn of public funds.

    That wasn’t a PM, that was a man pleading for his job, or, at least, to keep it until all the votes are counted.

    Incidentally, I got a text purporting to be from Malcolm Turnbull. I’m fairly certain he didn’t send it personally so I’ll be getting in touch with the AFP shortly.

  20. @Ratsak
    Your analysis is based on early figures before Greens/Progressive strong BTL votes and it’s impossible to know how the preference flows will play out, but if your prediction is right at 36 Labor+Greens in the Senate, that’s a blocking majority, right?

    If that kind of result plays out, Liberal government would not be feasible.

    Keep an eye on that total number as the Senate results unfold. Very interesting.

  21. Government in this situation is a poisoned chalice anyway. If Turnbull wants 77 seats minus a Speaker, with this Senate, he can have it. He won’t be able to do a single thing and will be undermined by half of his party. Best for Labor to solidify behind Shorten even further and wait 6 months and win a landslide.

    Night all. Well done today!

  23. Can NXT overtake Labor with prefences in Sturt and make it a LIB – NXT 2PP?
    I don’t see it happening myself but others have mentioned it.

  24. phoenixgreen @ #1821 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 1:05 am

    @Ratsak
    Your analysis is based on early figures before Greens/Progressive strong BTL votes and it’s impossible to know how the preference flows will play out, but if your prediction is right at 36 Labor+Greens in the Senate, that’s a blocking majority, right?
    If that kind of result plays out, Liberal government would not be feasible.
    Keep an eye on that total number as the Senate results unfold. Very interesting.

    WRONG. Greens are not progressive. They are LNP accomplices.

  26. And one before I go…

    Kieran Gilbert. 8.00pm last night. “Coalition won’t lose their net seat count”

    Night!

  27. Howdy folks.

    Just back from packing up my polling booth (Wakefield, SA).

    AEC gave nominal TCP as Labor vs Liberal, but on the night it was clearly Labor vs NXT.

    Labor are so far ahead here, Nick won’t be threatened, but I think we need to keep an open mind about Barker and Grey, regardless of what the “results” might be saying now.

    I suspect over the next couple of days, once a full preference count is done, NXT will not only get ahead of Labor in said seats, but overtake the Libs on preferences.

    Turnbull may have been a tad enthusiastic to call the result as a majority LNP government. Long way to go yet, Malcy boy!

  28. So based on the AEC numbers, as it stands, this is what the tally basically is:

    Coalition: 73 Seats
    Labor: 71 Seats
    Greens: 1 Seat
    NXT: 1 Seat
    And Wilkie, McGowan and Katter.

    Unsure about Grey though, it might either go Liberal or NXT.

  29. These guys should really say what they think and not beat around the bush —

    Andrew Bolt urges ‘disaster’ Turnbull to quit

    Bolt calls for Turnbull’s resignation

    In an extraordinary outburst, journalist Andrew Bolt calls for Malcolm Turnbull’s resignation, while Peta Credlin weighs in.

    Right-wing firebrand Andrew Bolt has called on Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to resign and accused him of being a disaster, leaving the Liberal Party in ruins and treating the conservative base “like dirt”.

    Bolt, a favourite blogger and commentator of the Coalition’s right flank, said Mr Turnbull could not “seriously claim that this result is better than anything

    former prime minister Tony

    Abbott could have achieved”.
    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and wife Lucy after casting their votes in Sydney on Saturday.

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and wife Lucy after casting their votes in Sydney on Saturday. Photo: Edwina Pickles

    As recriminations began following the government’s disappointing performance, Peta Credlin, former chief-of-staff to Mr Abbott, also predicted trouble ahead, telling Sky News “there’ll be a lot said about that in the next couple of days and I’ll say it then”.

    “You assassinated a Liberal prime minister, Tony Abbott, who’d won an election by a huge margin,” Bolt said, using his blog to directly address the Prime Minister on Saturday night.

    “You promised to do even better than him. You then treated the Liberal base like dirt, smashing it with a huge super tax, refusing to speak to conservative journalists, repeatedly humiliating Abbott.”
    Conservative columnist and broadcaster Andrew Bolt has demanded Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull resign.

    Conservative columnist and broadcaster Andrew Bolt has demanded Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull resign.

    “You have been a disaster. You betrayed Tony Abbott and then led the party to humiliation, stripped of both values and honour. Resign.”

    Later, in an extraordinary performance on Sky News, Bolt went on to lash Mr Turnbull for delivering “a miserable, miserable return for that investment”, and said he should resign to avoid the inevitable “blood-letting”.

    “This is a disgrace, for what he’s done to Tony Abbott. This is all he’s got left? The man should resign,” Bolt said.

    “He’s got no authority within the party. He’s trashed the brand, he’s got no mandate for change. You think the Liberals will just say that’s fine? This is just a disgrace, it is absolutely a disgrace.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/australian-federal-election-2016-andrew-bolt-urges-malcolm-turnbull-to-quit-20160702-gpx6tl.html

  31. Not looking so good for Singh unfortunately, unless she picked up a lot of below the line votes

    Labor is sitting on 4.45 quotas in the AEC current indicative count. Even without a strong BTL vote Singh would be 95% certain on those numbers to be on of the last few to hang on with less than quota. You would expect Singh to have a better BTL vote than most. She’ll be back for another 3 years.

    38 is a blocking majority. Without NXT Turnbull goes no where. With him Lab + Greens only need a couple of the rag tag bunch to block.

  32. chinda63 @ #1828 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 1:10 am

    Howdy folks.
    Just back from packing up my polling booth (Wakefield, SA).
    AEC gave nominal TCP as Labor vs Liberal, but on the night it was clearly Labor vs NXT.
    Labor are so far ahead here, Nick won’t be threatened, but I think we need to keep an open mind about Barker and Grey, regardless of what the “results” might be saying now.
    I suspect over the next couple of days, once a full preference count is done, NXT will not only get ahead of Labor in said seats, but overtake the Libs on preferences.
    Turnbull may have been a tad enthusiastic to call the result as a majority LNP government. Long way to go yet, Malcy boy!

    Grey looks really unknown but I think Pasin kept his PV too high for anything to happen.

  34. phoenixgreen @ #1821 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 1:05 am

    @Ratsak
    Your analysis is based on early figures before Greens/Progressive strong BTL votes and it’s impossible to know how the preference flows will play out, but if your prediction is right at 36 Labor+Greens in the Senate, that’s a blocking majority, right?

    No, a blocking majority would be 38 seats.
    But it would be a 1-seat improvement on what they currently have.

  35. Malcolm Turnbull: “pretty pathetic” according to Laurie Oakes. “It was an angry, bitter speech.”
    Indeed. This is gonna get ugly
    #ausvotes

  37. I’m calling Grey for NXT. As Penny virtually snorted to Antony, “you’re assuming a significant leakage of Labor prefs to the Libs?”

    No, neither am I.

  38. Speaking of the Senate, if the number of senators from Labor, the Greens and NXT is 39 or larger; then Labor should try to form government in the lower house.

  39. I would have liked to know what % of Labor preferences in Grey the NXT candidate would need to sneak home. 85% is probably doable.

  40. millennial @ #1829 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 1:11 am

    So based on the AEC numbers, as it stands, this is what the tally basically is:
    Coalition: 73 Seats
    Labor: 71 Seats
    Greens: 1 Seat
    NXT: 1 Seat
    And Wilkie, McGowan and Katter.
    Unsure about Grey though, it might either go Liberal or NXT.

    ……………………………………….

    Not so. Those numbers are incorrect.

    This is what EAC says –

    AEC saying LNP 68 v LAB 70
    Other 5, To Be Determind 7

    http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-20499.htm

  41. ratsak @ #1838 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 1:15 am

    I’m calling Grey for NXT. As Penny virtually snorted to Antony, “you’re assuming a significant leakage of Labor prefs to the Libs?”
    No, neither am I.

    If you put a gun to my head and told me I must make a call I would go with NXT as well, but it is unclear what will happen.

  42. Night all.
    Going to bed to sleep the the sleep of the saved & thankful.

    Australian Labor, never give up, never give in.

    Well done everybody

  44. ratsak Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 1:12 am

    Labor is sitting on 4.45 quotas in the AEC current indicative count. Even without a strong BTL vote Singh would be 95% certain on those numbers to be on of the last few to hang on with less than quota. You would expect Singh to have a better BTL vote than most. She’ll be back for another 3 years.

    Singh is number 6 on the ticket isn’t she?

  45. Night all

    Will make an effort to watch Insiders tomorrow to hear how our esteemed CPG predicted this outcome. Cough cough

  46. I also reckon Pyne will be relying on postals. Probably has enough to get home, But it sure looks to me that it isn’t a Lib v Lab 2pp count, and then it’s going to be tight.

  47. b.c. @ #1780 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 12:54 am

    I haven’t watched Turnbull’s speech. I’m not sure if I should hunt it down on Youtube or not.

    If you’ve listened to his pressers for the past 2 weeks, this is pretty much the same.

    Hell, it’s probably what the Libs have been telling their faithful the whole time.

    The stuff he brought up reminds me of what this person I know in my community always says about Labor, and he’s often associated with O’Dwyer.

  48. dave @ #1841 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 1:18 am

    millennial @ #1829 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 1:11 am

    So based on the AEC numbers, as it stands, this is what the tally basically is:
    Coalition: 73 Seats
    Labor: 71 Seats
    Greens: 1 Seat
    NXT: 1 Seat
    And Wilkie, McGowan and Katter.
    Unsure about Grey though, it might either go Liberal or NXT.

    ……………………………………….
    Not so. Those numbers are incorrect.
    This is what EAC says –
    AEC saying LNP 68 v LAB 70
    Other 5, To Be Determind 7
    http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-20499.htm

    I know that 7 are yet to be determined. However, 6 of those seats have candidates with primaries above 42% (and in the case of Durack and O’Connoer, additional National votes to accompany the Liberal’s), which suggests that no other candidate will be able to sneak in through preferences.

  49. Thanks again to PBers for being the best place to be informed, away from our pathetic MSM.
    And to posters like Briefly who not only talks the talk but walks the walk for the ALP

  50. I’d like to see Labor win in every election but that’s not going to happen. If Labor have to lose an election every once in a while then this might be a good one to lose. Over the next couple of years the LNP with an unhelpful senate will see their credentials as the great economic managers shot down in flames with much of the trashing coming from their own side.

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