Highlights of week five

A mixed assortment of public holiday reading concerning the last week or so of the federal election campaign.

With nominations having closed on Friday and pre-polling opening tomorrow, there has been a frenzy of activity with preference negotiations:

• The Australian reports that Labor will not direct preferences in South Australia, and the Liberals will do likewise in South Australian seats safely held by Labor. The purpose of this is to clip the wings of the Nick Xenophon Team, and add some measure of credibility to Malcolm Turnbull’s and Bill Shorten’s insistence that they will not emerge from the election pleading for the support of cross-benchers in a hung parliament.

• In a similar spirit, Malcolm Turnbull has pulled rank on the Victorian Liberal Party organisation by announcing that the Greens will be placed behind Labor on all how-to-vote cards. This maintains a policy that was first adopted at the 2013 election, which slashed Liberal preference flows to the Greens from at least three-quarters to around a third.

• Labor’s part of this apparent bargain is that it will direct preferences to the Liberals ahead of the Nationals in the three-cornered contests of Murray in Victoria, and Durack and O’Connor in Western Australia.

News from the Victorian front:

• Daniel Andrews’ government in Victoria is at the centre of an ill-timed controversy over the state’s Country Fire Authority, which led to the resignation on Friday of his Emergency Services Minister, Jane Garrett, and the sacking of the board of the authority. At issue is a proposed enterprise agreement which would grant the United Firefighters Union powers over the management of the authority, such as it exercises over the non-volunteer Metropolitan Fire Brigade. The CFA board refused to sign the agreement on the basis that the Victorian Equal Opportunity and Human Rights Commission has ruled its effective bans on part-time work to be discriminatory. The issue is of heightened sensitivity in each of Victoria’s most marginal seats, since the boundary between the CFA and MFB zones runs well inside Melbourne’s suburbs, having been drawn in the distant past. Issues involving the CFA are acutely important in Corangamite, scene of the Surf Coast bushfires between Christmas and New Year; McEwen, which takes in some of the area affected by the Black Saturday bushfires of 2009; and La Trobe, which consists of urban fringe and semi-rural hinterland in Melbourne’s east. The issue is somewhat less pressing in the eastern Melbourne marginal of Deakin, but it nonetheless falls within the zone of the CFA. Corangamite, La Trobe and Deakin were the three seats won by the Liberals in 2013, and McEwen for Labor by a margin of 0.2% in the face of a 9.0% swing.

• In McEwen, however, the Liberals’ job is being complicated by their candidate. Chris Jermyn is back in the spotlight after Adam Gartrell of Fairfax provided a fascinatingly detailed account of his role in a social media project that emerged with nothing to show for $15 million in venture capital funding. The Liberal Party passed up an opportunity last weekend to disendorse Jermyn ahead of last Thursday’s nominations deadline.

• The Liberals are down a candidate in the unimportant northern Melbourne seat of Calwell, held for Labor by Maria Vamvakinou on a margin of 13.9%. This follows the resignation from the party of John Min-Chiang Hsu over a failure to declare a business interest on his preselection nomination form, namely an establishment that purports to be nothing less than the “best brothel in Frankston”. Since nominations close, Hsu will continue to be listed on the ballot paper as the Liberal candidate.

Elsewhere:

• After bowing out in Lyne at the 2013 election, Rob Oakeshott seeks to re-enter the fray in the seat of Cowper, which post-redistribution encompasses Port Macquarie, where his political career began in state parliament. Cowper is held for the Nationals by Luke Hartsuyker. Oakeshott says he would give Malcolm Turnbull “first go” at forming government if he again found himself holding the balance of power.

• Penrith councillor Marcus Cornish is running as an independent in Lindsay and directing preferences against the Liberal member, Fiona Scott. Cornish quit the Liberal Party in protest against the removal of Tony Abbott, and said Scott had “stabbed him in the back” by supporting Turnbull.

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that Coalition internal polling has Tony Windsor’s primary vote in New England at just over 30%. The report says this would be “enough to topple the Deputy Prime Minister if preferences go Mr Windsor’s way”, but it’s difficult to say exactly how troubling the result would be for Barnaby Joyce without knowing his own primary vote.

• One parliamentarian and two candidates ran into trouble last week over Australian Defence Force guidelines against use of military uniforms in election campaigning. Andrew Hastie, who won the Canning by-election for the Liberals in September last year, refused to desist from using an image of himself in army fatigues on billboards that sold him as “not another politician”, which resulted in his dismissal this week from an army reserve unit. A similar threat has been made to Pat O’Neill, Labor’s candidate in the seat of Brisbane, and attention has been drawn to Labor candidate Mike Kelly’s use of such images in a pamphlet, which he claims to have been permissible by virtue of being “low key”. Fairfax reports that the ADF is considering asking the government to prohibit campainging in uniform under the Electoral Act.

• It has also emerged that Andrew Hastie did not declare his purchase of a home on March 27 before the dissolution of parliament in May 9, when parliamentary rules required he do so by April 24.

Pork-barrelling:

• Labor’s confidence about Herbert is said to relate to a promise made on May 10 to contribute $100 million to a 25,000 seat home stadium for the North Queensland Cowboys in Townsville.

• Barnaby Joyce has been able to shore up his position in New England this week by announcing $8.5 million in funding for a sports precinct in Tamworth, followed by a promise that the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority would be relocated from Canberra to Armidale. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that the latter initiative has displeased ACT Liberal Senator Zed Seselja and the National Farmers’ Federation, “which fears the valuable work done by the agency will suffer because many staff won’t go”.

• Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review dissects “$1.7 billion worth of relatively minor announcements” since the campaign began, including a series of major road announcements last Monday. This included $42.6 million in funding for an upgrade of the Hann Highway in north Queensland, which forms part of a direct inland route from Cairns to Melbourne, and is thus of particular interest in Warren Entsch’s electorate of Leichhardt. In Tasmania, the battleground seats of Braddon, Bass and Lyons were respectively promised roads funding worth $4.5 million, $3.0 million and $1.1 million.

Betting markets:

• Sportsbet has responded quickly to the Liberals’ preference announcement by revising the Greens’ prospects downwards in all seats where it is thought to be competitive. In Batman, the payout on a Labor win has been slashed from $2.50 to $1.15, while the Greens are out from $1.50 to $4. The Liberals are now credited with favouritism in Murray, coming in from $2 to $1.50 while the Nationals are out from $1.70 to $2.50

• More generally, there has been fairly substantial movement to the Coalition on betting markets over the past week. On the Betfair exchange, the Coalition is in from $1.34 a week ago to $1.23, or from 75.2% to 81.3% in implied win probability terms. Labor is out from $3.85 to $4.80, or from 27.0% to 22.2%. In Sportsbet individual seat markets, both parties are now on $1.87 in Page, after Labor had $1.65 to $2.15 favouritism a week ago; the Liberals are in from $1.75 to $1.50 in Deakin, while Labor is out from $2 to $2.50; Peter Dutton is in from $1.35 to $1.10 in Dickson, with Labor out from $3 to $6; and Christian Porter is in from $1.20 to $1.01 in Pearce, with Labor out from $4.20 to $12. The chart below provides a measure of three agencies’ implied win probabilities for the election overall, derived from a composite of their odds on the Coalition and Labor.

2016-06-13-betting-markets

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,118 comments on “Highlights of week five”

Comments Page 2 of 43
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  1. You know what I’m wondering? In a land where everyone and their dog carries a gun, why didn’t anyone try to take out the shooter(s)?

    Because people who feel the need to carry a gun and invariably a bunch of insecure cowards. The people who they mainly shoot are themselves, or their small children accidentally shoot them, which is the purest form of Darwinism, or members of their own families. Sometimes, if they are feeling really brave, they’ll shoot some unarmed LGBTI people, but other people with guns? No.

  3. Labor’s NBN plan hits Turnbull where it hurts, posing big questions on FTTN
    Was wondering when this would come out. It will resonate.

  5. Did the bookies beat the pollsters in Queensland 2015, for instance?

    If I recall correctly they were tipping a Coalition win up until the very end. As was pretty much everybody else. Even Labor didn’t expect Labor to win that one.

    Hopefully the current situation will play out the same. At the very least, we need a hung Parliament. 3 years with a Turnbull government will be basically the same as three more years of Abbott.

  6. bushfire bill @ #49 Monday, June 13, 2016 at 9:42 am

    Many would see that death of the shooter as some kind of weird “closure”, almost evening the balance sheet.

    The lives of fifty gay people are somehow equivalent to the life of one unstable homophobic wife-beater?

    I guess in America, anything really is possible!

  8. Funny thing about cable.
    We have cable at ou home but most of the people in our street have been converting to ADSL2 (24Mbps) with Telstra. The more that convert the faster our cable speed connection – currently at 32MBps. So not only do we get fater than 24Mbps but will have an opportunity to upgrade easily to fibre in the future!
    When we mentioned our speed to a Telstra phone marketing person they agreed we would be best to stay with cable.

  9. Labor would be mad not to preference NXT in SA. Given the background of NXT candidates (mostly business related) it will take votes from Libs more than Labor. The quid pro quo presumably would be Libs preferencing NXT ahead of Labor putting some risk on Labor seats but much less than the devastation which is threatened to Libs in SA. And if Labor preferences Libs ahead of NXT that is equally a threat to Labor candidates as the rush to NXT is likely to be significant. That is exactly what happened in the Senate in 2013 with Labor reduced to 1 out of 6.

    If Labor cannot get a majority, getting a minority LNP or Labor govt depending on NXT and others is surely the next best option. NXT might be able to hold its group together but there is also the likelyhood of breakouts which would reduce the appeal of NXT in 2019.

  11. Booleanbach … that might be speedier for you, but dealing with Telstra is fraught with danger … the level of incompetence there is mind-boggling. Just ask BK. I wouldn’t deal with them unless they were the only telco available, and then I’d probably consider smoke signals first!

  12. Anyone who STILL thinks the ABC doesn’t have an anti-ALP bias should listen to two interviews she did this am ..one with Greg Hunt on the GBR ..the other with Jason Clare on the NBN..

    ..almost fell asleep while letting Hunt drone on ..and on ..and on, but constantly interrupted Jason Clare with mainly false assertions every few seconds..

    It was plain as dog’s balls!!

  14. The same people might like to explain why AM has given more than twice the number of interviews with coalition spokespersons than their ALP equivalents during the campaign so far.

    Once again as clear as dog’s balls!

  15. Markjs – I find Fran Kelly Lib friendly as well. I cannot stand journos who put their own views of the world into their conversation – its just basic professionalism to hide personal views. You also have to expect that someone who knows bugger all about the environment/GBR will have less to query on that topic than a topic like NBN which presumably even the most uninformed journo will have some basis for putting up queries.

  16. Maybe the new MD has told them all not to bother trying to hide it anymore. After all, none of the Murdoch media does.

  18. Courier Mail Front page “Field of Dreams” “Turnbull finally gives Thurston his stadium”. Rupert Murdoch doing everything he can to ensure victory to the Liberals.

  19. Fran Kelly is mentioned in dispatches quite often. Strangely she still has some fans here but her bias seems to shine through to me. At least with Amanda Vanstone you know what you get on RN. As silly as it may sound, despite her Liberal party connection, she does endeavour to be even-handed. FK slip of say “we” will form government when it looked like Abbott had talked the Indies over was just so obvious. But, I have had my opinions challenged about her in the past. One thing for certain, I am not alone in wondering about how much her political leanings intrude on her journalism.

  20. Even I’m saying the Media have been taking it easy on the Libs.

    Labor have run a very tight ship, compared to the Liberal shits fights every second day. Who screams at a constituent, in an election campaign and gets away with hardly a mention? It’s like the talking heads dont want to be proved wrong about how good Malcome has turned out not to be.

  21. Indeed. What can you say about a people who one day will be out protesting against universal health care, and the next day protesting for universal gun ownership.

    Well what I would like to say about it would be completely unprintable here. But I will settle for saying that I am so glad that I was born here and not in that disgraceful, plutocratic dog eat dog society.

  22. Why oh why didn’t Malcolm kill the NBN as an issue when he became PM. This, more than anything, show’s his fundamental stupidity. Now it is going to bite him on the arse big-time. There are two schemes out there now. People have to decide.

  25. Orlando Killer Worked For Company Transporting Illegal Immigrants Inside US; Was Interviewed By FBI 3 Times

    Orlando shooter Omar Mateen – who as we reported earlier was licensed as a security guard and also holds a firearms license – was employed by the US subsidiary of G4S plc, a British multinational security services company

    …Mateen who according to preliminary reports, had been on a terrorist watchlist, and who still managed to obtain weapons thanks to his various licenses and permits just last week, was employed by one of the world’s largest security companies.

    …the FBI first became aware of the suspect, Omar Mateen, 29, in 2013 when he made “inflammatory comments to coworkers alleging possible terrorist ties.

    … in 2014 the FBI conducted an investigation into possible ties between Mateen and an American suicide bomber. The FBI conducted another investigation, which included an interview with Mateen, but determined that the contact did not constitute a threat at that time

    …In 2015, after Moner Abusalha became the first American suicide bomber in Syria, the FBI investigated Omar Mateen’s connection to Abu-Salha. Abu-Salha went to the Middle East, trained, and returned to the Treasure Coast, specifically Vero and fort Pierce, to recruit. The FBI says he didn’t recruit anyone, but it’s possible he did have contact with Mateen.

    …despite his chequered history and his numerous FBI encounters, the Orlando Police just reported that he had managed to purchase firearms in just this past week.

    …swore allegiance to ISIS moments before the worst mass shooting

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-12/orlando-shooter-worked-security-company-which-tranports-illegal-immigrants-deep-insi

  26. Darn,

    The polls I referred to were a full page story by Sam Maiden in the Sunday Mail yesterday.

    Both polls ( Qld and NSW) were Reachtel full state federal polls commissioned by Getup.

    The Queensland poll had primary votes of Coalition 39.5, labor 32.5 , greens 10.5, others 9.3 and a undecided of 8.2.

    2PP of 51/49 to Coalition. How they arrived at that 2PP I have no idea but that was the result.

    The NSW poll also by Reachtel and commissioned by getup had no details but was mentioned by Maiden simply as 50/50 2PP.

    Cheers.

  27. Liberals’ preference ploy about strategy, not ideology

    Malcolm Turnbull’s decision to preference Labor ahead of the Greens helps his campaign to undermine the minor parties, but it also suggests Coalition strategists are increasingly confident they have the election in the bag.

    In putting Labor ahead of the Greens, and in some cases all but ensuring the election of Labor candidates, the Government is clearly unconcerned about losing its majority.

    It is concerned however about being beholden to a crossbench of minor party and independent MPs in the lower house.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-13/matthewson-the-liberals'-preference-ploy/7504294

  28. WTH! has providing funding for electric fences along riverbanks to keep cattle in got to do with helping save the Great Barrier Reef!?! Turnbull and Hunt’s ‘plan’ to ‘save’ the GBR is just pork-barrelling for farmers and Queensland Local Councils. Nowhere in his schpiel did I hear one word about limiting the causes of Global Warming, which is causing the most damage. It’s all more Concessional Loans, a few Solar Panels and electric bloody fences!

  29. Just read that the disturbing thing for the investigators in Florida is that all around them mobiles are ringing in the pockets of the dead, as relatives and friends try to contact them.

  30. The government and mostly all in it, are lazy spivs who understand implicitly that they don’t have to really work at anything approaching policy, or follow the same rules as everyone else because they will always be given a free pass by the powers that be.
    There might be a bit of criticism from the sidelines, but when it really matters they all fall into line. It’s no coincidence that the best selling Sat edition of the Independent. Always SMH was wall to wall Mal, complete with anti Labor editorial.

    This certain knowledge that they will be supported by the media no matter what, has made them lazier, more arrogant and more hubristic spivs than they would otherwise have been.

  31. Take with a pinch of salt ?

    ‘Leave’ Takes Shocking 19-Point Lead In Brexit Poll – “If It Happens, Gold Will Be The World’s Strongest Currency”

    The headlines go from bad to worse for the UK and EU establishment as yet another new poll this weekend, by Opinium, shows “Brexit” leading by a remarkable 19 points (52% chose to leave the EU against 33% choosing to keep the status quo).

    This result comes after 2 polls Friday night showing a 10-point lead for “leave” which sparked anxiety across markets. This surge in “leave” probability comes despite an additional 1.5 million voters having registered this week (which many expected to increase “remain” support).

    Further anger towards EU was exposed when former cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith warned that seven new prisons will need to be built in the UK by 2030 to cope with the rising number of migrant criminals (presumedly due to ‘staying’ in the EU). With market anxiety rising, as One River’s CIO notes, if Brexit happens, gold will soar.

    …Speaking last night Robert Oulds, director of the Bruges Group, said it was important to drive home the fact that a post-Brexit Britain will have a range of options which allow trade with the European Economic Area.

    … “This new poll shows there are a majority of voters who prefer an economic rather than economic and political arrangement with the EU. These include people who might otherwise have voted to remain in the EU,” he said.

    “Clearly we can be free, have more democracy and be better off if we ditch or cancel our EU membership, and join a Free Trade Agreement like the one people thought they were voting for in 1975.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-12/leave-takes-shocking-19-point-lead-brexit-poll-if-it-happens-gold-will-be-worlds-str

  32. adrian @ #66 Monday, June 13, 2016 at 10:04 am

    Maybe the new MD has told them all not to bother trying to hide it anymore. After all, none of the Murdoch media does.

    The new MD has probably told them they had better start auditioning for positions with other Murdoch outlets because she has been tasked with liquidating .the ABC.

  33. Yes, P1 that is probably a more likely scenario. Sad to say, apart from a few high quality shows such as Rake, I wouldn’t really miss it anymore.

  34. adrian @ #83 Monday, June 13, 2016 at 10:39 am

    Yes, P1 that is probably a more likely scenario. Sad to say, apart from a few high quality shows such as Rake, I wouldn’t really miss it anymore.

    The commercial FTA, cable and satellite broadcasters are just abysmal. The ABC may be weak, but it is still a notch above the others for general programming. For news and political reporting, they’re all equally disappointing. ABC music is great…indispensable. I’d miss that a great deal

  35. Doyley
    Monday, June 13, 2016 at 10:22 am
    Darn,

    The polls I referred to were a full page story by Sam Maiden in the Sunday Mail yesterday.

    Both polls ( Qld and NSW) were Reachtel full state federal polls commissioned by Getup.

    The Queensland poll had primary votes of Coalition 39.5, labor 32.5 , greens 10.5, others 9.3 and a undecided of 8.2.

    2PP of 51/49 to Coalition. How they arrived at that 2PP I have no idea but that was the result.

    The NSW poll also by Reachtel and commissioned by getup had no details but was mentioned by Maiden simply as 50/50 2PP.

    Cheers.

    Thanks very much for that Doyley.

    I would say they got to the 51-49 by using the allocated preferences of the minor parties.

    Those results, if accurate, would mean significant gains to Labor in both states, which to me seems unlikely. But I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed.

  39. In putting Labor ahead of the Greens, and in some cases all but ensuring the election of Labor candidates, the Government is clearly unconcerned about losing its majority.

    It is concerned however about being beholden to a crossbench of minor party and independent MPs in the lower house.

    How can the government be unconcerned about losing its majority in the House while at the same time being concerned about relying on minor parties and Independents in the House?

  40. trog sorrenson @ #57 Monday, June 13, 2016 at 9:53 am

    From here on in, all Bill has to do is refer to the “Abbott/Turnbull Government”.

    This would be to echo DiN. A rearward glance is not going to do it. Labor have to talk about a Shorten Labor Government. Instead of referring to the past, DiN would better serve Australia if he promised G support for Labor’s policies in health, education, the environment, banking and tax reform.

  41. Does Crikey sign you out automatically after 24 hours?

    It can. I’ve never been able to figure out the algorithm, but this morning I got signed out twice in 5 minutes. Rare, though, for it to be that frequent.

  43. nicholas @ #89 Monday, June 13, 2016 at 11:09 am

    In putting Labor ahead of the Greens, and in some cases all but ensuring the election of Labor candidates, the Government is clearly unconcerned about losing its majority.
    It is concerned however about being beholden to a crossbench of minor party and independent MPs in the lower house.

    How can the government be unconcerned about losing its majority in the House while at the same time being concerned about relying on minor parties and Independents in the House?

    Quite right. Turnbot is trying to protect Liberal candidates in his own safest seats. He will fend of the Nationals in 3-cornered contests, just as Labor will fend off the G’s. The G’s and the Nationals have a lot in common.

  44. I trust Waleed Aly will explain to the Citizens of the US that the shooting in Orlando has nothing to do with the Religion of Peace and that Extremist Islamic Terrorism is just an irritant that we focus far too much upon.

    Maybe he could visit and provide briefings in person.

    While he’s there he can explain why it is racist to highlight the negative aspects of a religion.

  45. Re: dave @ 10:34 am and the UK Brexit poll
    The best source for information on UK opinion polling is Britain’s nearest equivalent to Poll Bludger: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
    According to a post there only yesterday, the latest poll from Opinium was in fact REMAIN 51%, LEAVE 49%.

  48. Surely minor parties and Independents only cause difficulties for the government in the House if the government loses its majority.

  49. Makes you want to give up on America, doesn’t it?

    Saturday night in Orlando, a man armed with an assault-style rifle killed at least 50 people and wounded 53 others in a crowded nightclub. Six months ago, in San Bernardino, California, a man and woman armed with assault-style rifles killed 14 people and wounded 20 others. In 2012, in Aurora, Colorado, a man armed with an assault-style rifle killed 12 people and wounded 58 others in a crowded movie theater. Also in 2012, in Newtown Connecticult, a man armed with an assault-style rifle killed 28 people and wounded 2 others at an elementary school.

    One common denominator behind these and other high-casualty mass shootings in recent years is the use of assault style rifles, capable of firing many rounds of ammunition in a relatively short period of time, with high accuracy.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/orlando-shooting-gun-used-is-becoming-mass-shooters-weapon-of-choice-20160612-gphhwp.html#ixzz4BPxC2iCg

    You really don’ t know where to begin with the absolute stupidity of the gun ownership fetish Americans have.

    Just better to leave them to shoot each other and get it over and done with.

    One man with an assault rifle can kill 50 people in the blink of an eye. One spray of bullets around a crowded room and you can’t miss.

    Sure, apparently there was a single policeman there on official duty, but by the time he managed to recover from the shock and fright, get his act together, and fire back, all those people were dead.

    It’s crazy. It’s nonsensical. It’s idiotic, but the response is to have more armed people out there to counter the crazies.

    Just. Sick.

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