With nominations having closed on Friday and pre-polling opening tomorrow, there has been a frenzy of activity with preference negotiations:
• The Australian reports that Labor will not direct preferences in South Australia, and the Liberals will do likewise in South Australian seats safely held by Labor. The purpose of this is to clip the wings of the Nick Xenophon Team, and add some measure of credibility to Malcolm Turnbull’s and Bill Shorten’s insistence that they will not emerge from the election pleading for the support of cross-benchers in a hung parliament.
• In a similar spirit, Malcolm Turnbull has pulled rank on the Victorian Liberal Party organisation by announcing that the Greens will be placed behind Labor on all how-to-vote cards. This maintains a policy that was first adopted at the 2013 election, which slashed Liberal preference flows to the Greens from at least three-quarters to around a third.
• Labor’s part of this apparent bargain is that it will direct preferences to the Liberals ahead of the Nationals in the three-cornered contests of Murray in Victoria, and Durack and O’Connor in Western Australia.
News from the Victorian front:
• Daniel Andrews’ government in Victoria is at the centre of an ill-timed controversy over the state’s Country Fire Authority, which led to the resignation on Friday of his Emergency Services Minister, Jane Garrett, and the sacking of the board of the authority. At issue is a proposed enterprise agreement which would grant the United Firefighters Union powers over the management of the authority, such as it exercises over the non-volunteer Metropolitan Fire Brigade. The CFA board refused to sign the agreement on the basis that the Victorian Equal Opportunity and Human Rights Commission has ruled its effective bans on part-time work to be discriminatory. The issue is of heightened sensitivity in each of Victoria’s most marginal seats, since the boundary between the CFA and MFB zones runs well inside Melbourne’s suburbs, having been drawn in the distant past. Issues involving the CFA are acutely important in Corangamite, scene of the Surf Coast bushfires between Christmas and New Year; McEwen, which takes in some of the area affected by the Black Saturday bushfires of 2009; and La Trobe, which consists of urban fringe and semi-rural hinterland in Melbourne’s east. The issue is somewhat less pressing in the eastern Melbourne marginal of Deakin, but it nonetheless falls within the zone of the CFA. Corangamite, La Trobe and Deakin were the three seats won by the Liberals in 2013, and McEwen for Labor by a margin of 0.2% in the face of a 9.0% swing.
• In McEwen, however, the Liberals’ job is being complicated by their candidate. Chris Jermyn is back in the spotlight after Adam Gartrell of Fairfax provided a fascinatingly detailed account of his role in a social media project that emerged with nothing to show for $15 million in venture capital funding. The Liberal Party passed up an opportunity last weekend to disendorse Jermyn ahead of last Thursday’s nominations deadline.
• The Liberals are down a candidate in the unimportant northern Melbourne seat of Calwell, held for Labor by Maria Vamvakinou on a margin of 13.9%. This follows the resignation from the party of John Min-Chiang Hsu over a failure to declare a business interest on his preselection nomination form, namely an establishment that purports to be nothing less than the “best brothel in Frankston”. Since nominations close, Hsu will continue to be listed on the ballot paper as the Liberal candidate.
• After bowing out in Lyne at the 2013 election, Rob Oakeshott seeks to re-enter the fray in the seat of Cowper, which post-redistribution encompasses Port Macquarie, where his political career began in state parliament. Cowper is held for the Nationals by Luke Hartsuyker. Oakeshott says he would give Malcolm Turnbull “first go” at forming government if he again found himself holding the balance of power.
• Penrith councillor Marcus Cornish is running as an independent in Lindsay and directing preferences against the Liberal member, Fiona Scott. Cornish quit the Liberal Party in protest against the removal of Tony Abbott, and said Scott had “stabbed him in the back” by supporting Turnbull.
• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that Coalition internal polling has Tony Windsor’s primary vote in New England at just over 30%. The report says this would be “enough to topple the Deputy Prime Minister if preferences go Mr Windsor’s way”, but it’s difficult to say exactly how troubling the result would be for Barnaby Joyce without knowing his own primary vote.
• One parliamentarian and two candidates ran into trouble last week over Australian Defence Force guidelines against use of military uniforms in election campaigning. Andrew Hastie, who won the Canning by-election for the Liberals in September last year, refused to desist from using an image of himself in army fatigues on billboards that sold him as “not another politician”, which resulted in his dismissal this week from an army reserve unit. A similar threat has been made to Pat O’Neill, Labor’s candidate in the seat of Brisbane, and attention has been drawn to Labor candidate Mike Kelly’s use of such images in a pamphlet, which he claims to have been permissible by virtue of being “low key”. Fairfax reports that the ADF is considering asking the government to prohibit campainging in uniform under the Electoral Act.
• It has also emerged that Andrew Hastie did not declare his purchase of a home on March 27 before the dissolution of parliament in May 9, when parliamentary rules required he do so by April 24.
• Labor’s confidence about Herbert is said to relate to a promise made on May 10 to contribute $100 million to a 25,000 seat home stadium for the North Queensland Cowboys in Townsville.
• Barnaby Joyce has been able to shore up his position in New England this week by announcing $8.5 million in funding for a sports precinct in Tamworth, followed by a promise that the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority would be relocated from Canberra to Armidale. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that the latter initiative has displeased ACT Liberal Senator Zed Seselja and the National Farmers’ Federation, “which fears the valuable work done by the agency will suffer because many staff won’t go”.
• Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review dissects “$1.7 billion worth of relatively minor announcements” since the campaign began, including a series of major road announcements last Monday. This included $42.6 million in funding for an upgrade of the Hann Highway in north Queensland, which forms part of a direct inland route from Cairns to Melbourne, and is thus of particular interest in Warren Entsch’s electorate of Leichhardt. In Tasmania, the battleground seats of Braddon, Bass and Lyons were respectively promised roads funding worth $4.5 million, $3.0 million and $1.1 million.
• Sportsbet has responded quickly to the Liberals’ preference announcement by revising the Greens’ prospects downwards in all seats where it is thought to be competitive. In Batman, the payout on a Labor win has been slashed from $2.50 to $1.15, while the Greens are out from $1.50 to $4. The Liberals are now credited with favouritism in Murray, coming in from $2 to $1.50 while the Nationals are out from $1.70 to $2.50
• More generally, there has been fairly substantial movement to the Coalition on betting markets over the past week. On the Betfair exchange, the Coalition is in from $1.34 a week ago to $1.23, or from 75.2% to 81.3% in implied win probability terms. Labor is out from $3.85 to $4.80, or from 27.0% to 22.2%. In Sportsbet individual seat markets, both parties are now on $1.87 in Page, after Labor had $1.65 to $2.15 favouritism a week ago; the Liberals are in from $1.75 to $1.50 in Deakin, while Labor is out from $2 to $2.50; Peter Dutton is in from $1.35 to $1.10 in Dickson, with Labor out from $3 to $6; and Christian Porter is in from $1.20 to $1.01 in Pearce, with Labor out from $4.20 to $12. The chart below provides a measure of three agencies’ implied win probabilities for the election overall, derived from a composite of their odds on the Coalition and Labor.
2,118 comments on “Highlights of week five”
BUG1 – Thanks.
BUG1 – Indeed, the close correspondence of the polls before the Queensland election (referred to by William above) suggests that, rather than them ALL getting it right, they met in a pub somewhere and picked some figures, or they basically all took a polling average (so nobody looked stupid). Probably the latter.
jenauthor @ #2098 Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 6:11 pm
I think we should be wary of both.
A reminder the Abbott chaplains thing came into NSW schools to appease Fred Nile so Baird could get his privatisation of the electric poles and wires through.
That programme is harming the gay community by putting religion above human rights.
Channel 7 just mentioned a poll
I think Uhlmann is being too generous to the Coalition in WA, and I also think Queensland and New South Wales are very hard to call and that we will see some surprise swings on the night. Oh, and on News Radio he still couldn’t resist mentioning Griffith, though he begrudgingly admitted he thought Labor would win. Typical of comentators, he said he felt Labor were falling well short, but, “a week is a long time in politics, and there’s still two and a half weeks to go”. Talk about a bet each way!
Mark Riley just mentioned research on boring not showing polling figures sorry for any misleading it was 7’s intro not me.
Hindmarsh and Mayo?
If so I think that is the most likely result, but the poll in Elder does raise question marks about that seat and others.
I don’t think Labor can win Boothby, and it is going to be hard for NXT to win Boothby.
“USA needs to ban guns ASAP.”
Just 10 reasons it will never happen & that’s before the politics or the Constitution get in the way, its way too late for them. A horrible case of dependancy
Parkeelia is up on the ABC website for those interested.
I think Uhlmanns analysis seems a tad conservative. For example I would give Labor a good chance of picking up Brisbane and Page.
I would like to speculate on the following scenario.
A hung parliament,.
A LNP minority govt.
A challenge by Abbott to Turnbull.
Turnbull quits LNP & crosses floor.
A test of numbers.
An ALP minority govt.
‘So if you want to express a strong preference for the Greens or NXT or an independent, you have no choice but to deliver your vote up to the two majors.’
And this happens because we live in a democracy, and the majority of people vote for one of the two majors.
That’s not a dark conspiracy, or a blot on the system – it’s people making choices.
Just because the choice they make is not the one you would make does not make it wrong.
Once again LNP does what it allowed to do….
The Mandarin @TheMandarinAU
PM&C powerless on NBN Co boss Ziggy Switkowski’s breach of caretaker convention
Just watched the 7:30 item on the Lindsay focus group. They were disappointed by Turnbull, who they said hadn’t really done anything. When it came to Bill Shorten, focus group members simply parroted Liberal-Murdoch memes. They must get all of their information from the Daily Telegraph. There would be lots of voters across the country just like them.
“Just watched the 7:30 item on the Lindsay focus group. They were disappointed by Turnbull, who they said hadn’t really done anything. When it came to Bill Shorten, focus group members simply parroted Liberal-Murdoch memes. They must get all of their information from the Daily Telegraph. There would be lots of voters across the country just like them.
There is no question that Liberals scare campaign on debt has worked. I think the media have definitely alot to blame for not pointing out the debt has doubled under the Liberals.
Joe Hockey “We have to live within our means”. Oh yeah why don’t you practice what you preach wanka!!!!!
“JOE Hockey has defended his practice of claiming a $270-a-night taxpayer-funded travelling allowance to stay in a Canberra house majority-owned by his wife on the grounds that it is an entirely legitimate practice embraced by scores of Labor MPs.
The Treasurer has legitimately claimed $108,000 in travel allowance for 368 nights over the past four years including many nights for parliamentary sitting weeks where he has stayed at the Canberra house.”
It seems the Oz has finally discovered Parakellia – it basically runs the libs press release downplaying it.
The herald sun and daily telegraph are yet to inform its readers of this apparent scam. How they would scream if labor was doing this. How hard is it to report taxpayers dollars being directed by all lib MPs to a lib-owned fund that then donates to the libs and a former MP claiming it was a known scam?
This should be the end of the libs. it makes Bronnies helicopter trips look like a small transgression.
it’ll be interesting to see how Mal tries to get around it during the debate. I’ll bet he calls this and any criticism as negative mud slinging and claims he just wants to focus on their positive vision for the future. Shorten should be ready for that response. I think shorten’s response that the labor vision for a fairer future is better than hoping a $50 billion tax cut to corporations will somehow trickle down is what he needs to push.
And I am not happy that Kevin Bonham is stealing my calculations in his blog spiel about Grey.
“It can be calculated from the 2PP figures supplied (… in Grey) that Labor would obtain a 10.3% 2PP swing”
No hat tips. The cheek.
Hat tip to Funnyball who posted the same calculations just before I (independently) did.