Highlights of week five

A mixed assortment of public holiday reading concerning the last week or so of the federal election campaign.

With nominations having closed on Friday and pre-polling opening tomorrow, there has been a frenzy of activity with preference negotiations:

• The Australian reports that Labor will not direct preferences in South Australia, and the Liberals will do likewise in South Australian seats safely held by Labor. The purpose of this is to clip the wings of the Nick Xenophon Team, and add some measure of credibility to Malcolm Turnbull’s and Bill Shorten’s insistence that they will not emerge from the election pleading for the support of cross-benchers in a hung parliament.

• In a similar spirit, Malcolm Turnbull has pulled rank on the Victorian Liberal Party organisation by announcing that the Greens will be placed behind Labor on all how-to-vote cards. This maintains a policy that was first adopted at the 2013 election, which slashed Liberal preference flows to the Greens from at least three-quarters to around a third.

• Labor’s part of this apparent bargain is that it will direct preferences to the Liberals ahead of the Nationals in the three-cornered contests of Murray in Victoria, and Durack and O’Connor in Western Australia.

News from the Victorian front:

• Daniel Andrews’ government in Victoria is at the centre of an ill-timed controversy over the state’s Country Fire Authority, which led to the resignation on Friday of his Emergency Services Minister, Jane Garrett, and the sacking of the board of the authority. At issue is a proposed enterprise agreement which would grant the United Firefighters Union powers over the management of the authority, such as it exercises over the non-volunteer Metropolitan Fire Brigade. The CFA board refused to sign the agreement on the basis that the Victorian Equal Opportunity and Human Rights Commission has ruled its effective bans on part-time work to be discriminatory. The issue is of heightened sensitivity in each of Victoria’s most marginal seats, since the boundary between the CFA and MFB zones runs well inside Melbourne’s suburbs, having been drawn in the distant past. Issues involving the CFA are acutely important in Corangamite, scene of the Surf Coast bushfires between Christmas and New Year; McEwen, which takes in some of the area affected by the Black Saturday bushfires of 2009; and La Trobe, which consists of urban fringe and semi-rural hinterland in Melbourne’s east. The issue is somewhat less pressing in the eastern Melbourne marginal of Deakin, but it nonetheless falls within the zone of the CFA. Corangamite, La Trobe and Deakin were the three seats won by the Liberals in 2013, and McEwen for Labor by a margin of 0.2% in the face of a 9.0% swing.

• In McEwen, however, the Liberals’ job is being complicated by their candidate. Chris Jermyn is back in the spotlight after Adam Gartrell of Fairfax provided a fascinatingly detailed account of his role in a social media project that emerged with nothing to show for $15 million in venture capital funding. The Liberal Party passed up an opportunity last weekend to disendorse Jermyn ahead of last Thursday’s nominations deadline.

• The Liberals are down a candidate in the unimportant northern Melbourne seat of Calwell, held for Labor by Maria Vamvakinou on a margin of 13.9%. This follows the resignation from the party of John Min-Chiang Hsu over a failure to declare a business interest on his preselection nomination form, namely an establishment that purports to be nothing less than the “best brothel in Frankston”. Since nominations close, Hsu will continue to be listed on the ballot paper as the Liberal candidate.

Elsewhere:

• After bowing out in Lyne at the 2013 election, Rob Oakeshott seeks to re-enter the fray in the seat of Cowper, which post-redistribution encompasses Port Macquarie, where his political career began in state parliament. Cowper is held for the Nationals by Luke Hartsuyker. Oakeshott says he would give Malcolm Turnbull “first go” at forming government if he again found himself holding the balance of power.

• Penrith councillor Marcus Cornish is running as an independent in Lindsay and directing preferences against the Liberal member, Fiona Scott. Cornish quit the Liberal Party in protest against the removal of Tony Abbott, and said Scott had “stabbed him in the back” by supporting Turnbull.

Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that Coalition internal polling has Tony Windsor’s primary vote in New England at just over 30%. The report says this would be “enough to topple the Deputy Prime Minister if preferences go Mr Windsor’s way”, but it’s difficult to say exactly how troubling the result would be for Barnaby Joyce without knowing his own primary vote.

• One parliamentarian and two candidates ran into trouble last week over Australian Defence Force guidelines against use of military uniforms in election campaigning. Andrew Hastie, who won the Canning by-election for the Liberals in September last year, refused to desist from using an image of himself in army fatigues on billboards that sold him as “not another politician”, which resulted in his dismissal this week from an army reserve unit. A similar threat has been made to Pat O’Neill, Labor’s candidate in the seat of Brisbane, and attention has been drawn to Labor candidate Mike Kelly’s use of such images in a pamphlet, which he claims to have been permissible by virtue of being “low key”. Fairfax reports that the ADF is considering asking the government to prohibit campainging in uniform under the Electoral Act.

• It has also emerged that Andrew Hastie did not declare his purchase of a home on March 27 before the dissolution of parliament in May 9, when parliamentary rules required he do so by April 24.

Pork-barrelling:

• Labor’s confidence about Herbert is said to relate to a promise made on May 10 to contribute $100 million to a 25,000 seat home stadium for the North Queensland Cowboys in Townsville.

• Barnaby Joyce has been able to shore up his position in New England this week by announcing $8.5 million in funding for a sports precinct in Tamworth, followed by a promise that the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority would be relocated from Canberra to Armidale. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that the latter initiative has displeased ACT Liberal Senator Zed Seselja and the National Farmers’ Federation, “which fears the valuable work done by the agency will suffer because many staff won’t go”.

Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review dissects “$1.7 billion worth of relatively minor announcements” since the campaign began, including a series of major road announcements last Monday. This included $42.6 million in funding for an upgrade of the Hann Highway in north Queensland, which forms part of a direct inland route from Cairns to Melbourne, and is thus of particular interest in Warren Entsch’s electorate of Leichhardt. In Tasmania, the battleground seats of Braddon, Bass and Lyons were respectively promised roads funding worth $4.5 million, $3.0 million and $1.1 million.

Betting markets:

• Sportsbet has responded quickly to the Liberals’ preference announcement by revising the Greens’ prospects downwards in all seats where it is thought to be competitive. In Batman, the payout on a Labor win has been slashed from $2.50 to $1.15, while the Greens are out from $1.50 to $4. The Liberals are now credited with favouritism in Murray, coming in from $2 to $1.50 while the Nationals are out from $1.70 to $2.50

• More generally, there has been fairly substantial movement to the Coalition on betting markets over the past week. On the Betfair exchange, the Coalition is in from $1.34 a week ago to $1.23, or from 75.2% to 81.3% in implied win probability terms. Labor is out from $3.85 to $4.80, or from 27.0% to 22.2%. In Sportsbet individual seat markets, both parties are now on $1.87 in Page, after Labor had $1.65 to $2.15 favouritism a week ago; the Liberals are in from $1.75 to $1.50 in Deakin, while Labor is out from $2 to $2.50; Peter Dutton is in from $1.35 to $1.10 in Dickson, with Labor out from $3 to $6; and Christian Porter is in from $1.20 to $1.01 in Pearce, with Labor out from $4.20 to $12. The chart below provides a measure of three agencies’ implied win probabilities for the election overall, derived from a composite of their odds on the Coalition and Labor.

2016-06-13-betting-markets

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,118 comments on “Highlights of week five”

Comments Page 42 of 43
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  1. Political Alert
    2m
    Political Alert‏ @political_alert
    Nationals Senator Barry O’Sullivan has called on @RealBobKatter to resign over this ‘murder advertisement’ #ausvotes

  2. Re homophobia and Islamophobia: I think that the LGBTI (LGBTQI?) strategy of drawing these two phobias together in public debate is a shrewd one.
    However, let’s not get carried away with equivalence here: Islam, as it is practised throughout much of the world, is highly problematic in terms of women’s rights, homosexuality, freedom of expression, minority rights, etc, etc.
    Islamism poses a significant threat to the lives of innocent people around the world and needs to be dealt with aggressively by security and police services has rocks in their head. I don’t think anyone can reasonably suggest that the LGBTQI community represents any sort of significant threat to anyone other than to homophobes in their own warped minds.

  3. Pretty easy way to get rid of a jury you perceive not to be favourable

    [The first trial of Roger Rogerson and Glen McNamara was aborted in July last year after McNamara’s then barrister Charles Waterstreet made a reference to Rogerson “killing two or three people when he was in the police force”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/how-barrister-charles-waterstreet-caused-rogerson-mcnamara-trial-to-be-aborted-20160602-gp9uov.html#ixzz4BdCthsXN
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook]

  4. RUPERT – ” Malcolm, you are either with US ????? ….. or kiss your arse goodbye ….
    Malcolm – Bring it on, Rupert Baby …….

    Can the last person please turn off the lights as you leave ……

  5. Bug1
    Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 5:29 pm

    I’ll go with that too. They had a 53-47 for the ALP and were scared of being ridiculed. And since conspiracies are more fun if you embellish them… it turns out it’s not a rogue 🙂

  6. lizzie @ #1923 Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 3:55 pm

    ScoMo cherrypicking the truth again to make his point.

    The central theme of what Mr Morrison described as the “hard-hitting” television ad is that two ALP candidates standing in 2016 previously ran for the Greens, including Anne Aly, the counter-terrorism expert running in the winnable Western Australian seat of Cowan.
    The ad claims she “stood for the Greens at the 2007 election”, even though she quit as a candidate before the election.
    But there was one critical piece of information left on the cutting-room floor when the 42-second ad was put together: The lead National Party candidate in Western Australia, Kado Muir, has stood for the Greens in every state and federal election since 2004.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-scott-morrisons-greening-labor-attack-ad-omits-a-vital-piece-of-information-20160615-gpjkho.html

    There’s a point there, but is that for the Federal Nats or WA Nats? Some don’t consider WA Nats to be part of the Coalition.

  7. If Labor voters want to vote for Hinch over the Greens, they’re going to have to actually do so. The “preference” deal is occurring at the same time as Labor feints towards the left on a whole lot of other issues. The party is all over the shop on this stuff, a victim of Greens Derangement Syndrome. Labor volunteers despise this sort of game-playing and feel that Labor and the Greens should exchange votes as two progressive parties, should simply refuse to hand them out (the same goes for any dodgy Greens tickets, such as the one preferencing Fred Nile’s party in NSW).
    ….
    The Senate has become more expressive of democracy; the House remains a machine system, combining single-member electorates, compulsory voting and an exhaustive preferential system. In all but a dozen (at most) of the 150 seats, you have to eventually vote for either Labor or the Coalition for your vote to count at all. So if you want to express a strong preference for the Greens or NXT or an independent, you have no choice but to deliver your vote up to the two majors.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/06/15/rundle-the-travesty-of-our-democracy/

  8. Colton
    “Oh, and for someone who is/was so quick to bag other politicians eg Gillard so regularly your advice actually means shit to me.
    So typical of a green supporter. Dish it out but cry like babies when any criticism comes their way.”
    Lovely language from you and I don’t mind the Greens you really are a precious petal aren’t you.

  9. Re Eden-Monaro: It’s a funny seat, with different regional voting patterns each election. Somewhat surprisingly (given the likely impact of an Abbott Government on the regional economy), the Queanbeyan booths swung quite strongly to Hendy in 2013, as did the Snowy and the northern coastal area of the electorate, but the southern coastal area less so.
    As expected, the regional economy has struggled under the Abbott-Turnbull Government (albeit most of the cuts to the public service were actually made by Gillard and Swan and only took effect under Abbott). So will Queanbeyan now swing back to Labor? And what about the South Coast, with its large population of retirees?
    Personally, I wouldn’t be all that surprised if Eden-Monaro stayed with the Libs, even under a hung parliament scenario. But, if the national swing is big enough to install Labor as a majority government, one would expect Eden-Monaro to be swept up in that.

  10. I like Lenore Taylor’s final line in her story about Morrison’s ad campaign v greens

    “shows it’s a lot closer than we think”

  11. meher baba @ #2053 Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 5:37 pm

    Re homophobia and Islamophobia: I think that the LGBTI (LGBTQI?) strategy of drawing these two phobias together in public debate is a shrewd one.
    However, let’s not get carried away with equivalence here: Islam, as it is practised throughout much of the world, is highly problematic in terms of women’s rights, homosexuality, freedom of expression, minority rights, etc, etc.

    I call BS. Development correlates to the lack of ANY religion in politics, including christianity. There are, and have been, fiendish christian-based hate groups that are just as opposed to womens rights, homosexuality, freedom of expression, minority righes, etc, etc.
    You want to group all islam together? I do the same with ALL religious groups. I don’t compare the red-ones to the green-ones, and think, I like the red-ones, because I’ve always preferred that colour.

  12. raaraa @ #2058 Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 5:41 pm

    Anne is Morrison’s worst nightmare…a mother, a scholar, an activist, an energetic advocate for youth and education, industrious, scrupulous, caring, dedicated…and a Muslim, sometime-G and now a Labor leader promoted by the left of WA Labor…

    I better go and make some phone calls for her!

  13. Matt Bevan on common sense (and it’s use by Trump, Hinch, Turnbull and Bernardi). I’ve actually been thinking The Common Sense Party would be a good name if I wanted to stand for the Senate. I’m sure I would pick up a fair number of the RWNJs.

  14. Briefly: “The point…surely not lost on you….is to support release from phobias wherever we find them. This is a project to be pursued within and between all the cultures. It’s not so much “shrewd” as self-evident.”
    Not lost on me at all. But, unlike many, I have read the Koran from cover to cover (in an English translation, I must confess) and some of the other major Islamic texts as well. Like the Judeao-Christian Bible, Islamic holy texts are awash with many phobias, prejudices and, to be brutally honest, some seriously nasty, vicious stuff directed towards people who don’t toe the doctrinal line being put forward.
    It’s not a level playing field here. I have no problem with anything LGBTQIs want to do which involves consent between adults. But I have a lot of problems with most of what Islamists want to do to me and my family and friends. It’s not a phobia or a prejudice to be worried about Islamism: it’s a real threat.

  15. nicholas @ #2061 Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 5:46 pm

    Labor volunteers despise this sort of game-playing and feel that Labor and the Greens should exchange votes as two progressive parties

    Not this volunteer. I will of course do as I’m asked. But were it left to me, I would eschew preferring the G’s. They are “progressive” only in the same way the LNP are “reformers”.

  16. meher baba @ #2070 Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 5:53 pm

    Islamism: it’s a real threat.

    It’s not Islamism, it’s religion, period. There are just as many obscene directives in the bible as there are in the Koran. Have a browse through Leviticus some time.
    Stop with the Islamophobia. If you want to fix things closer to home, how about you put your effort into addressing the institutional child-raping that continues to be MO of the christian religion. The solution is to separate ALL religion from government, not just Islam.

  17. BUG1 – Oh, I get it. The result looks rogue on Monday, so they put it on the backburner and wait until mid-week while they give it a good old massage.

  18. briefly @ #2067 Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 5:51 pm

    raaraa @ #2058 Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 5:41 pm
    Anne is Morrison’s worst nightmare…a mother, a scholar, an activist, an energetic advocate for youth and education, industrious, scrupulous, caring, dedicated…and a Muslim, sometime-G and now a Labor leader promoted by the left of WA Labor…
    I better go and make some phone calls for her!

    That article was posted by lizzie. Give the credit to her.

  19. Privi Izumo: “You want to group all islam together? I do the same with ALL religious groups. I don’t compare the red-ones to the green-ones, and think, I like the red-ones, because I’ve always preferred that colour.”
    I too don’t like any religious groups (although, as you might expect, I have a soft spot for some gentle forms of Indian mysticism).
    I would draw a parallel to football louts: all football louts are appalling, but the English football louts are consistently the most numerous, violent, racist and objectionable.
    All organised religions are also pretty dreadful, but the one whose adherents are currently out there in force saying they want to kill me and people who think like me, and have actually carried out this threat in a major way in many different countries now, are Muslims.
    So, yes, I’m more bothered about Islamists (who are far from representing the majority of Muslims but are nonetheless a strong force in the world) than I am about any form of Christians, Jews, Buddhists, Hindus, etc, etc. And so are the overwhelming majority of people in the Western world right now. With good reason.

  20. Well the Uber poll was interesting. Started with a woman saying her favourite politician was Malcolm Turnbull for bucking the party line on Climate Change. Turns out she will be voting Labor.

    It shows how much voters really don’t know what is going on.

  21. There hasn’t been much comment on Ausdavo’s very interesting observations above about the likelihood that many die-hard liberals just might not vote or will vote informal at the forthcoming election. I can think of at least one Lib I know who I very strongly suspect just won’t vote. It is going to be fascinating.

  22. meher baba @ #2070 Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 5:53 pm

    MB, if you feel threatened you might best express and respond to this by showing solidarity for those within Islam that stand against violence and hate. This is more likely to help than deploying stereotypes. I think, if we examine it, we can deduce that “islamism” is a construct of the fearful. We can disable fear by naming it and posing the alternatives: hope, strength and courage.

  23. To be totally honest, I’m not fussed whether or not we get Morgan as I really don’t consider it reliable. In two days we will no doubt get a Reachtel and an Ipsos, then on Sunday or Monday night a Newspoll. Throw in some possible seat poling and we’ll get a clearer picture of where things are heading. I agree with a comment above though; that ridiculous greening of Labor ad tells me it’s close, very close, which I suspect anyway.

  24. meher baba @ #2075 Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 6:00 pm

    So, yes, I’m more bothered about Islamists (who are far from representing the majority of Muslims but are nonetheless a strong force in the world) than I am about any form of Christians, Jews, Buddhists, Hindus, etc, etc. And so are the overwhelming majority of people in the Western world right now. With good reason.

    In Australia, my child is more likely to be raped by a christian priest, than to be blown up by a radical muslim.

  25. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 5:07 pm
    STEEL BLADE – Are you saying that, despite the advertised odds on a labor win, if I tried to lay some money the betting sites might not take that bet?
    wrt ‘skinners’? No, not all. What I’m saying is that the theory of making a book very rarely happens in practice. The theory says that whichever horse wins this race (LNP or LAB), the bookie will make the same guaranteed profit. In practice tho, Sportsbet may be facing a large loss on LNP and a big win on LAB simply because no punter of substance wants LAB at any price. And just because punters keep coming for the favourite doesn’t mean the bookie will keep winding it in endlessly. He might bet back with another bookie or simply wear the loss, waiting for the day that the favourite loses and then he cleans up big time. I have seen plenty of ledger sheets where the bookie stood to keep the lot if any of a half dozen horses won the race. Of course when the favourite gets up, it is painful, and as a bookies clerk you don’t make eye contact with the boss.

  26. Privi Izumo

    My favorite bible nasty is the one where if a husband cannot beget a child from his wife, his wife should ‘submit’ to the brothers or fathers of her husband … can’t remember where exactly, but it part of the Moses stories (who is also a hero to Muslim faith).

  27. Kevin-One-Seven: Newspoll used to delay releasing their poll so it could be used to get maximum news value. Its not a very scientific approach to releasing data. The data becomes secondary to the reaction it provokes.
    It remains to be seen what Morgan is upto, but regular releases promote trust in the process IMO.
    A lot of pollsters ‘tweak’ their process to try and get it right on election day, because they can use the actual results to validate their methods. Usually it happens on the last poll, Morgan has one more scheduled.

  28. I too read the Uhlmann thing on ABC. He scores 80-66 to the LNP-Labor and does not mention the Indies once. I think he might be 5 seats to light on and which could go either way.

  29. “It’s not Islamism, it’s religion, period. ”
    I generally don’t disagree.
    “There are just as many obscene directives in the bible as there are in the Koran. Have a browse through Leviticus some time.”
    The Books of Joshua and Revelations are probably the worst. (I’ve read the Bible from cover to cover as well.)
    “Stop with the Islamophobia.”
    How is it Islamophobia for me to suggest that I am fearful of Islamists wanting to kill me and people who think like me? It’s the truth.
    “If you want to fix things closer to home, how about you put your effort into addressing the institutional child-raping that continues to be MO of the christian religion. ”
    This comment seems to me to be far more prejudiced than anything I have said about Islam.
    “The solution is to separate ALL religion from government, not just Islam.”
    That’s currently the case in most countries in the world, except for Britain (notionally), Vatican City and quite a few Islamic states (and, arguably, North Korea, if, like me, you consider Juche to be a form of religion ).

  30. This is what we need not this g vs l bullshit:

    Guardian Australia
    2m
    Guardian Australia‏ @GuardianAus
    Rob Oakeshott ‘uplifted’ after poll shows large swing against Nationals

  31. Say for example (and on topic) the UFU in Victoria gets a pay rise from Labor, then the unions then collect higher union fees and can then make larger donations to labor?

    They can try, and i’m a bit surprised they haven’t already. But, the Parakellia thing is about rorting and then laundering taxpayer funds which is quite a different issue from unions BOOOO!

    They have been caught out doing the agile and innovative thing……just in a bad way.

  32. Briefly
    Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 5:36 pm
    rewi @ #2040 Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 5:27 pm

    Uhlmann’s got the LNP on aggregate losing just ten seats:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-15/breakdown-of-where-both-parties-stand-by-state/7513614

    His maths are as good as his journalism.

    I don’t see anything wrong with his maths. However without including any thoughts on SA it is rather pointless to use the headline figure. I think the Coalition will lose Hindmarsh to Labor. NXT could win Mayo but I would think they are probably only to get 1 or 2 seats not 5 as was speculated earlier today. They are more likely to win 0 than 5 in my view.

  33. Meter – I suspect you’ll find it’s Russian “hooligans” who are the dangerous ones these days. English football is too expensive for the yobs who used to be the trouble makers.

  34. meher baba @ #2087 Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 6:06 pm

    How is it Islamophobia for me to suggest that I am fearful of Islamists wanting to kill me and people who think like me? It’s the truth.

    That is the text-book definition of Islamophobia.
    You need to start looking at statistics some time.
    You are more likely to get murdered by your significant other than to come to any other violent end in Australia. If you’re a woman, that ratio is obscenely high. You are more likely, by several orders of magnitude, be raped by a christian priest than be killed by an islamic extremist.
    Just quit it. Stop spreading the hate.

  35. Meher Baba
    Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 5:48 pm
    I will go the opposite. Eden-Monaro will fall, but there is a good chance it will lose the coveted title of most bellwether seat in the land.

  36. Parakeelia has been leading on News Radio. Really hope this takes hold. The key with things like this isn’t necessarily whether voters understand the inns and outs of what is going on and how, it is whether the story plays in to peoples’ perceptions, hardens opinions etc. Remember, not that many votes really have to change to bring about a change of government.

  37. To be honest Meher, while I have read and dissected some of the Koran and much of the Bible (as well as the Nag Hamadi/Egyptian belief systems etc etc.) they are all used as an excuse for someone who is prone to violence (or prone to be beguiled by violent power hungry types) to commit their violence.

    Really, we should be wary of violent people not religions.

  38. MB

    I started this conversation commenting on a court decision. You don’t like the planning decisions by a council. Go vote. Thats democracy.

    I have a problem with there being so many churches no matter what the faith. To me it would make more sense for shared facilities to cut down car parking etc.

    However the reality is that is not going to happen and you have to treat Islam equally as any Christian or Bhuddist or what ever religion in planning terms.

    All the fears you talk about are security fears applicable just as much for gay people with the Christian hate groups like Fred Nile who unlike the Islam hate mongers has the offical position of being an MP.

  39. “Scott Morrison should focus on his day job as Treasurer rather than his night time job as amateur Youtube producer.”

    Zinger!

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