There should a lot of entertainment in store for poll watchers in the form of national polling over the coming days, and we’ve had a few appetisers over the night with scattered reports of privately commissioned electorate-level polling conducted by ReachTEL. Due caution must be allowed for the fact that some of the polls were conducted several weeks ago, and all were commissioned by left-of-centre concerns who might feel more inclined to publicise their poll results when they like what they show. With that in mind:
• The freshest of the batch is a poll crediting Labor with a 51-49 lead in the northern Tasmanian seat of Bass. This suggests a 5% swing against Liberal member Andrew Nikolic, who gained it with a 10.8% swing in 2013. The poll was conducted on Tuesday for GetUp! from a sample of 824.
• The Advertiser reports troubling numbers for the Liberals from South Australia in further polling conducted for GetUp! Christopher Pyne is credited with 41% of the primary vote in his seat of Sturt, compared with 21% for Nick Xenophon Team candidate Matthew Wright and 20% for Labor’s Matt Loader and 8% for the Greens. In Mayo, Liberal member Jamie Briggs is at 40%, against 23.5% for Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, 18% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. Either seat would be under threat from NXT on those numbers, provided their candidates were able to get ahead of Labor. The scale of the threat would also depend on whether the remainders include an undecided component, as is usually the case in ReachTEL’s electorate polling. If so, distributing the undecided would push the Liberal primary vote up high enough that they would most likely make it over the line, although only just. The Sturt poll was conducted on May 22 from a sample of 762, and the Mayo poll was on May 16 from a sample of 681.
• The West Australian reports a poll of the Perth seat of Cowan credited Labor’s Anne Aly with a 51-49 lead over Liberal member Luke Simkins, whose 7.5% margin has been pared back to 4.0% in the redistribution. The implied swing of 5% is actually at the low end of the Labor’s recent form in polling from Western Australia. However, this poll is showing its age a little, having been conducted on May 10 for the United Voice union from a sample of 731. The West’s report also relates that the Liberals’ internal pollsters, Crosby-Textor, have recorded a 6% swing to Labor in the new seat of Burt, which has a notional Liberal margin of 4.9%.
Adrian
So you have direct experience with the goodness of the NSW Teachers Federation and/or teaching, and are now a lawyer.
Possible but rare.
My brief is an ex schoolie.
Well, I was a nurse and now am a lawyer – from one of the most respected to one of the least professions….
[ Basically, no supplies, few troops, few weapons and the Soviets were well dug in. Indeed, Stahel says that, as a result the Germans had already lost the war. ]
There is something to that argument. From my readings of various accounts it seems that the German Govt were also trying to implement the objective of depopulating the areas they had over run. Part of that was instructing the army to live off the land to some extent and use up local food supplies food supplies. No food for the population would starve them over the winter. What it did mean though is that when they failed to win a quick victory, they did NOT have the extensive logistics apparatus they needed in place to supply their own troops. From the personal accounts of Germans who fought on the Eastern front i have read, a consistent theme is hunger and sickness during the long retreat.
That is consistent with other histories that have to do with why the Germans were really, never in a position to invade England. Maybe if they had won the Battle of Briton they would have had a go, but as with the campaign in the east its very dubious as to if they had the logistics capability to support it. And after they had invade Russia there is NO way an invasion of Briton was going to happen.
Even the Allies, with the full resources of the USA involved had to wait until 44 to have a realistic chance of invading Europe, and that was only after “practice” runs in North Africa and Sicily. Full on amphibious operations are hard, risky and ridiculously logistics intensive.
All cycles back I think to a failure of the German top leadership (in a very vicious, autocratic system) to objectively understand their total “machines” limitations, and the bad decision making that follows that.
briefly
I still just do not get what you mean. In SA, if the Greens do the thoroughly moral thing and preference Labor, they will push Labor ahead of NXT and give victory to the Libs in those seats where Liberals are the vote leader. If they preference NXT, then it will help secure NXT victory, but would be seen as quite a tricky move, especially if they did some sort of NXT Green preference swap. However it would help to secure an ALP victory. However if they preference NXT in Labor seats they will be seen tpo be nasty sellouts.
Surely their safest strategy is no not issue preferences.
dtt
Only according to Vote Compass. I have actually taken time to read many of the Green policies, and I disagree with a lot of them.
daretotread @ #303 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 3:40 pm
Do the greens have the intestinal fortitude to put the libs last, or are they really just interested in playing political ‘who me?’ games for power.
Sorry to bump a question i asked before but does anyone know….
Has Mal the Lord High Great Communicator of Wentworth agreed or not to grace the “Peoples Forum” in Brisbane next week with the balm of his wisdom and oratory skills??
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8Yf5B6GbYk Good story about the war
imacca:
I believe he’s still thinking about it.
As to WW2, a couple of people have mentioned the weather but nobody has given it the emphasis it deserves. The Russians have said that in 1812 and 1942 they had an extra General by name of General Winter. See the average Januray temperatures map here – http://www.mapsofworld.com/world-maps/average-temparature-january-enlarge-map.html I have seen others that make it look even more dramatic – every few degrees of longitude you go east it falls another 10deg F (6deg C). Nobody in western Europe – nobody even in Poland – has any idea what winter temperatures can be like until they visit/invade Russia! An army would have to do exercises high on the Alps in January to get prepared – and then they’d have to be able to imagine endless plains with that weather instead of just a few mountain ridges. Of course it affects the Russians too, but they expect it, year after dreary year and have the clothing for it. It has tended to catch invading armies by surprise. Excusable in the case of Napoleon because I don’t think anyone had printed atlases of world weather back then, but dummmmb in the case of Hitler.
IMACCA – German soldiers basically had to march (not ride in a truck) about 800 kilometres from the polish border to reach Moscow. Most of their supplies were carried on horse and cart or useless trucks (about 100 different versions!) that used useless roads (mostly unsealed). The trains were the wrong gauge etc etc and the lines had to be relaid. It was a miracle they got as close to Moscow by October/November as they did. The only thing that kept the German Army going was their tactical genius on the battlefield. They really were the best.
It’s also very clear that the German plan was to basically liquidated 40 to 50 MILLION people West of Moscow (they weren’t going to be fed) and populate the land with German settlers.
Privi
Yes Option 4 might be a decent Greens strategy, but I guess that would be just as true of Labor. Maybe the greens and labor could do a deal like that in SA.
Trouble is that BOTH parties want Liberal preferences in the inner city of Sydney and Melbourne.
The reality of NXT, from Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey:
I’m staggered that Greens voters would switch to NXT. Unless they were only voting Greens in order to avoid voting for a major party, and now there is a viable minor party alternative, have jumped ship.
The Western Allies might well have been able to take Berlin if they chose (I think Montgomery was also keen). Instead they concentrated their attack further south. As to why you would need to ask Eisenhower. I think I’ve read the theory that the Russians really wanted to take Berlin and Eisenhower was happy not to take the casualties. Here’s Wikipedia’s take: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Allied_invasion_of_Germany#Eisenhower.27s_plans
Worth a Read
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/younger-voters-are-revolting-with-good-reason-20160601-gp94fw.html
Confessions
If you look at the Senate data you will see that the greens vote has two components. A solid core of 5-10% who are Greens voters and are pretty committed PLUS a “plague on both houses” set of voters who will swing to the flavour of the month party. In 2010 it was Green, in 2013 it was PUP, this year it will be NXT or Lambie.
IMACCA
“We have had many proposals about another leaders’ debate and we have already done one with Sky News, as you know. We’ve done one at the Press Club which was carried by the ABC and by Sky News. There are other media organisations that have presented other proposals and we are considering them. ”
Mal couple of hours ago
Oh, yes, the other reason the Germans got so close to Moscow was the monstrous ineptitude of Stalin and his clown-shoes generals. They were the absolute pits. Stalin only won the war because he had 20 million brave troops to feed into the meat-grinder (which he did with great alacrity).
Privi, like Briefly, you haven’t been paying attention. It doesn’t matter much what the Greens say on their HTV tickets because Green voters have a habit of deciding for themselves. Can you imagine that – making your own decisions, instead of doing what some authority figure tells you to do? If not, do some mind exercises until you get there.
And Briefly, yes I’ll be doing my bit as the day draws closer, though it will involve Getup HTVs rather than Labor. Think they may actually help Labor get votes from the “both parties are the same” drongoes more than ones labelled Labor.
Tweet from Mark Riley – latest REACHTEL poll shows a swing from the last one, but to who? And, a key minister surprisingly in trouble.
Wonder who that could be……….Dutton? Pyne?
The punters over at the once reasonable Guardian are getting a bit antsey.
Ever since Ms Taylor took over as political editor at The Guardian, we have been exposed to these Murdoch tabloid’esque ‘headlines’ … and stories aping the ‘dirty diggers’ tabloid driven agenda, such as this one!
As the LNP/IPA takes a dive in the polls, the desparation of pro-LNP journo hacks, their clear bias, becomes even more obvious and shrill!
The ‘group think’ of the gutless ‘Canberra Press Gallery’ grovellers raises its ugly head, here, there, everywhere in the MSM!
jenauthor @ #161 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 12:32 pm
In my younger days, I made the mistake of assuming that someone who have a lot of things in common with me and who work with me might have the same political views. Could not learn that quickly enough.
Evan
Much as it would cheer me I am not getting much of an anti Dutton vibe, although the candidate against him is very well known. No body is getting out an about much just now. the ONLY signs I see are bloody Family First.
Last Reachtel was 48 – 52 to Labor. So a further swing would be a boil-over. Hard to expect. But if a minister is in trouble!
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN Friday, June 3, 2016 at 3:53 pm
Oh, yes, the other reason the Germans got so close to Moscow was the monstrous ineptitude of Stalin and his clown-shoes generals. They were the absolute pits. Stalin only won the war because he had 20 million brave troops to feed into the meat-grinder (which he did with great alacrity).
********************************************************
I once lived next door to a lovely German family – Dad was Walter who was a member of the Hitler Youth who got posted out to the Easter Front in the latter days when the Germans were in retreat. He told me many vivid stories of his times but he said he was assigned to a machine gun company and said when the Russians attacked it was a human wave as wide as the eyes could see …….. they were burning out gun barrels what seemed like every 15 seconds – killing hundreds but they just kept coming – he still had nightmares – and tears in his eyes – recalling it. He managed to get back to Berlin and was eventually captured ( so luckily he said ) by the Americans – who stole his chronometer and family ring ……
Pretty much a swing to the Fibs obvious by Rileys comment.Lets hope 51-49 Lab.
Given the Riley tweet, 50/50 2PP again and Pyne in strife.
We’re just in the doldrums phase of this campaign( which was always going to happen), and the real action will start in a week or so
No Wow from him this week.
PHOENIX – The Germans were just amazed at the toughness of the average Russian soldier. They deserved much better than their generals.
Back on WW2, I understand the West-East German border had been pretty-much decided at the Tehran conference and Ike was honouring the agreement by conquering the Germs only in the parts pre-assigned to the west.
jack a randa @ #318 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 3:54 pm
Oh, I understand alright. The greens voters are generally not-engaged to that level, and really don’t know what the greens actually stand for. And when I mean stand, I mean, stand as in ‘stand against an emissions trading scheme’ which is exactly what they’ve done in the past.
So their prognostications are really just politics as usual. They say one thing, and another. If they were actually interested in getting rid of the libs (politically) they’d place them last. It shows nothing more than the disconnect between the political arm of the greens, which has a striking similarity where it counts to the libs, and the people who vote for them, who 80% of the time, don’t even listen to what they say.
it appears Katherine (with a K ) murpharooo and lenore T, have ?? dedicated a late
70″S hit to their much loved poster pin up boy. the one the only Malcontent (the tosser) turdball.
LOve to love ya Baaabyyy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5AztWseIdU
It must be confusing to be G. Sometimes the claim is they are just like Labor. At others the claim is that Labor and the Libs are the same.
The truth is there is Labor. And there are those who hope to defeat Labor
Seems likely Vogon Poet. Not expecting good news this week.
TomTitTot Alcibiades2016
16m ago
2 3
The editor who was keeping a good control of Guardian Australia was recalled to the UK. Ever since the throne is passed over to Lenore, Guardian Australia has dropped down a cliff.
The only ministers I can think of would be Pyne, Dutton and Joyce, unless the polling for Julie Bishop is suddenly bad in WA
51-49 to Labor I’ll take.
More intrigued by the other poll.
regarding reachtel can it be a swing if your already leading .
so expect lnp have clawed some back.
Can’t tell whether you’re agreeing or disagreeing with me there, Privi…
Mr Money – I think Riley is saying that there has been “movement” from the last poll. But the question is whether that “movement” could be to 47. I think that’s too much to ask for.
@ MrMoney – yes, people would use the term swing to describe 52 -> 53 and for 48 -> 49.
I too expect LNP have clawed some back, but only because it would be more consistent with the 49-51 polling that has been consistently occurring for weeks. 53-47 is wipeout territory and I don’t think the past week has been enough to cause that.
Evan
Christian Porter? Kelly O’Dwyer?
[ There are other media organisations that have presented other proposals and we are considering them. ”
Mal couple of hours ago ]
Ta Vogon. So……Mals shopping for the best protection deal then.
[ But the question is whether that “movement” could be to 47. I think that’s too much to ask for. ]
Its is a dragons birthday though? Perhaps the doGs will smile on us??
SCOTT – Then again, the libs went full maddie this week, as if something has spooked them. I’m gonna bank a 47 (and you can’t take it off me!).
Or to put it another way, self-delusion is cheaper and healthier than taking drugs.
From Shorten’s Facebook page:
briefly @ #215 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 1:39 pm
I don’t quite understand where you’re going with this.
My understanding is that unless anything changes, both Labor and the Greens will put the Liberals behind the Greens and/or Labor preferences.
The question of where NXT preferences will go will be decided by the either state parties, but IMO, it would be strategically best for both Labor and Greens to preference NXT above Greens and/or Labor.
I just don’t see how it would be beneficial for Greens or Labor to recommend Libs above any of the other parties I’ve mentioned.
It must be confusing to be Labor. Sometimes the claim is they are just like the Greens. At others the claim is that Greens and the Libs are the same.
The truth is there is the Greens. And there are those who hope to defeat the Greens
“A solid core of 5-10% who are Greens voters and are pretty committed PLUS a “plague on both houses” set of voters who will swing to the flavour of the month party. In 2010 it was Green, in 2013 it was PUP, this year it will be NXT or Lambie.”
Or, increasingly Sex. There’s also an even smaller group of ‘Libs for Forests’ voters who will never vote ALP but occasionally see the Greens as a decent place to park a protest vote against the LNP.
lizzie @ #222 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 1:45 pm
Agree completely. Needs to be a multi-partisan approach. Without that, any one side can succeed in taking action only to have it undone after a few terms.