Private polling round-up: Bass, Sturt, Mayo, Cowan

Privately conducted ReachTEL polls point to cliffhanger results in a number of key seats, as Liberal members struggle to fend off Labor in Western Australia and Tasmania and the Nick Xenophon Team in South Australia.

There should a lot of entertainment in store for poll watchers in the form of national polling over the coming days, and we’ve had a few appetisers over the night with scattered reports of privately commissioned electorate-level polling conducted by ReachTEL. Due caution must be allowed for the fact that some of the polls were conducted several weeks ago, and all were commissioned by left-of-centre concerns who might feel more inclined to publicise their poll results when they like what they show. With that in mind:

• The freshest of the batch is a poll crediting Labor with a 51-49 lead in the northern Tasmanian seat of Bass. This suggests a 5% swing against Liberal member Andrew Nikolic, who gained it with a 10.8% swing in 2013. The poll was conducted on Tuesday for GetUp! from a sample of 824.

• The Advertiser reports troubling numbers for the Liberals from South Australia in further polling conducted for GetUp! Christopher Pyne is credited with 41% of the primary vote in his seat of Sturt, compared with 21% for Nick Xenophon Team candidate Matthew Wright and 20% for Labor’s Matt Loader and 8% for the Greens. In Mayo, Liberal member Jamie Briggs is at 40%, against 23.5% for Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, 18% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. Either seat would be under threat from NXT on those numbers, provided their candidates were able to get ahead of Labor. The scale of the threat would also depend on whether the remainders include an undecided component, as is usually the case in ReachTEL’s electorate polling. If so, distributing the undecided would push the Liberal primary vote up high enough that they would most likely make it over the line, although only just. The Sturt poll was conducted on May 22 from a sample of 762, and the Mayo poll was on May 16 from a sample of 681.

• The West Australian reports a poll of the Perth seat of Cowan credited Labor’s Anne Aly with a 51-49 lead over Liberal member Luke Simkins, whose 7.5% margin has been pared back to 4.0% in the redistribution. The implied swing of 5% is actually at the low end of the Labor’s recent form in polling from Western Australia. However, this poll is showing its age a little, having been conducted on May 10 for the United Voice union from a sample of 731. The West’s report also relates that the Liberals’ internal pollsters, Crosby-Textor, have recorded a 6% swing to Labor in the new seat of Burt, which has a notional Liberal margin of 4.9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

465 comments on “Private polling round-up: Bass, Sturt, Mayo, Cowan”

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  1. simon katich @ #399 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 5:42 pm

    ‘fess, you have told me your dislike for Kahlua before. But I am not budging.
    Besides, I found 3 bottles of it from a long ago overseas duty free splurge so it simply must be drunk – and no-one else likes the stuff.
    I might try it on the cat tho’.

    I have a recipe for making your own if you want it. 😉

  2. Sometimes a certain amount of voters use the minor parties as a protest vote and then change to the main parties on the last day.If people are changing to Greens and NXT they probably are Labor leaning,so could easily switch back come polling day.It used to happen quite regularly in the UK.People used to switch to the Liberal Democrats as a protest vote,but would switch back when the crunch came to the general election.

  3. rod hagen @ #408 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 5:54 pm

    Bemused: “DTT, I know you are an ALP member, but the way you continue to espouse views that would be anathema to most ALP members are just amazing.”
    He’s far from a lone, bemused. I know many ALP members who say just the same thing. Sometimes I get the feeling you are trying to encourage them all to jump ship , too!

    I would prefer they stopped giving aid and comfort to Labor’s enemies.

  4. Autocrat – are you related to Oliver Wendell Holmes Sr, aka the “Autocrat of the Breakfast Table” and if so what is your preferred item of furniture…

  5. simon katich @ #423 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 6:05 pm

    Right, I have read up on Yahoo Answers and it seems alcohol (in small doses in diluted forms like wine, beer, and I assume Kahlua in milk) isnt going to kill my cat.
    Now, before you all go spare on me, whilst my cat is being quite annoying at the moment I will not feed it Kahlua. I dont want any grief from the kids if something does happen – like it falling off the deck or passing out in the fire or the like.

    A dog I used to have, a female German Short-haired Pointer, had quite a taste for beer.

  6. Ah bemused at “https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/06/03/private-polling-round-bass-sturt-mayo-cowan/comment-page-10/#comment-2408820”.

    If you are voter, rather than a party hack, what matters isn’t really so much whether your team “wins” an election. What really matters is the policy content that you honestly support getting up.

    I’ve little doubt more than a few alp VOTERS (and some decent members too) will be more than happy, if, post election, they can say “see, we are doing more on climate change” or “see we , aren’t bastards to refugees”, because a hung parliament means a tad more recognition of the left than, sans Green hung parliament requirements, would have otherwise been required!

  7. “Dio – re Sturt.
    Handshin got 41.5% primary vote in 2007. Loader currently polling very low 20’s.”

    Even though Matt is a good candidate, I suspect the ALP were always more interested in “blooding” him as a candidate to prepare him to win the state seat of Florey, to replace Frances Bedford (in 2018), than to actually win Sturt.

    Once it was apparent NXT were in with a chance, the ALP started pulling their punches in the seat in order to let NXT take a clear run at Pyne.

  8. I should add that I heard from someone very close to the action in SA that Sturt isn’t in the ALP radar this time.

    Hindmarsh is the seat where the resources are mostly going. The feelpinion is Wakefield, Port Adelaide, Makin, Adelaide and Kingston are pretty much as safe as houses this time and the major interest on the night will be in the Liberal seats where NXT is half a chance.

  13. simon katich @ #96 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 10:40 am

    KB
    so by your analysis its about a 3% swing against him? About consistent with the national swing? Or is there a redistribution clouding it?

    No redistribution in Tasmania. 2.5% against Nikolic by last-election preferences in that poll, so yes about consistent with national trend. Last-election prefs will be a bit rubbery given the demise of PUP but I would rather believe them than an 82.7% flow to ALP.

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