Private polling round-up: Bass, Sturt, Mayo, Cowan

Privately conducted ReachTEL polls point to cliffhanger results in a number of key seats, as Liberal members struggle to fend off Labor in Western Australia and Tasmania and the Nick Xenophon Team in South Australia.

There should a lot of entertainment in store for poll watchers in the form of national polling over the coming days, and we’ve had a few appetisers over the night with scattered reports of privately commissioned electorate-level polling conducted by ReachTEL. Due caution must be allowed for the fact that some of the polls were conducted several weeks ago, and all were commissioned by left-of-centre concerns who might feel more inclined to publicise their poll results when they like what they show. With that in mind:

• The freshest of the batch is a poll crediting Labor with a 51-49 lead in the northern Tasmanian seat of Bass. This suggests a 5% swing against Liberal member Andrew Nikolic, who gained it with a 10.8% swing in 2013. The poll was conducted on Tuesday for GetUp! from a sample of 824.

The Advertiser reports troubling numbers for the Liberals from South Australia in further polling conducted for GetUp! Christopher Pyne is credited with 41% of the primary vote in his seat of Sturt, compared with 21% for Nick Xenophon Team candidate Matthew Wright and 20% for Labor’s Matt Loader and 8% for the Greens. In Mayo, Liberal member Jamie Briggs is at 40%, against 23.5% for Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, 18% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. Either seat would be under threat from NXT on those numbers, provided their candidates were able to get ahead of Labor. The scale of the threat would also depend on whether the remainders include an undecided component, as is usually the case in ReachTEL’s electorate polling. If so, distributing the undecided would push the Liberal primary vote up high enough that they would most likely make it over the line, although only just. The Sturt poll was conducted on May 22 from a sample of 762, and the Mayo poll was on May 16 from a sample of 681.

The West Australian reports a poll of the Perth seat of Cowan credited Labor’s Anne Aly with a 51-49 lead over Liberal member Luke Simkins, whose 7.5% margin has been pared back to 4.0% in the redistribution. The implied swing of 5% is actually at the low end of the Labor’s recent form in polling from Western Australia. However, this poll is showing its age a little, having been conducted on May 10 for the United Voice union from a sample of 731. The West’s report also relates that the Liberals’ internal pollsters, Crosby-Textor, have recorded a 6% swing to Labor in the new seat of Burt, which has a notional Liberal margin of 4.9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

465 comments on “Private polling round-up: Bass, Sturt, Mayo, Cowan”

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  1. Carey

    Loader is not running dead actually.

    If Labor isn’t running dead in Sturt, they are giving a very good impression of it.

  2. GG – Kahlua means sump oil in Tibetan.

    Have you tasted the alcoholic beverages of the Himalaya? I am sticking with Kahlua.

    Then again, once I got over the vomiting, Kumis grew on me.

  3. Jackie on The Drum has just done a complete job on the corrupt and talentless NSW Liberal Party, and Mal’s control of the campaign. Hope it gets quoted somewhere.

  4. Cable Internet joined up today using the Foxtel cable.
    Line speed was 0.7 yesterday (iiNet).
    Today line speed 35.

  5. Bemused: “DTT, I know you are an ALP member, but the way you continue to espouse views that would be anathema to most ALP members are just amazing.”

    He’s far from a lone, bemused. I know many ALP members who say just the same thing. Sometimes I get the feeling you are trying to encourage them all to jump ship , too!

  6. SK:

    Oh well, if it’s only going to be chucked out, I suppose someone has to take one for the team and consume it. I can be grateful it isn’t me!

  7. Putting out the garbage time

    “So LNP have released their one-page @NBN_Australia policy on Friday afternoon with no @TurnbullMalcolm in sight

    I wonder why?

    #notagile”

  8. Tom Koutsantonis ‏@TKoutsantonisMP · 1m1 minute ago

    BREAKING: NXT campaign manger & Senate candidate @Stirling_G admits to being a member of the Liberal Party

  9. Lizzie

    BREAKING: NXT campaign manger & Senate candidate @Stirling_G admits to being a member of the Liberal Party

    !!!!!!

  10. Bemused @ 5.15…You are pretty astute – well most of the time – and you may have missed my point here. I was not at all whinging abut the air time the three LNP fans got at the Writers’ Festival. I was making the point, obviously a bit too subtly, that bias is in the eyes of the beholder. My point was here was a crew of fully-paid-up RW journos having their say on the ABC. I don’t have any issues with this. I have read your many defences of the ABC when those looking for RW bias go to town here. I think, over the years, many of us can rattle off plenty of ABC programmes and presenters who lean to the left or right. My only comment about the ABC is that has become a bit more timid over the years. But then, with cuts to budgets always on the cards, who is surprised? The Tories in the UK are currently doing their best to bring the BBC to heel in a similar fashion ….cuts to budget and stacking of key committees with friends of the government.

  11. The Liberal Democratic Party of NSW Senator David Leyonhjelm considered entering an agreement to accept $500,000 from an Adelaide businessman in return for making him a lead Senate candidate for the party at the July 2 election.

    Fairfax Media has obtained leaked documents that propose a deal in which Roostam Sadri, a property developer and former abattoir owner, would hand over $500,000 on the condition he be placed in the No.1 position on the Liberal Democrats ticket.

    …The proposed deal has shocked electoral law experts George Williams and Graeme Orr, who described the document as “as blatant as it gets”.

    The two-part agreement, which was was drawn up in April, could contravene two anti-bribery provisions in the Commonwealth Electoral Act, according to Professor Orr, who wrote the 2010 book The Law of Politics: Elections, Parties and Money in Australia and did his PHD on electoral crime and bribery.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-cash-for-candidacy-leaked-documents-show-500000-offer-to-become-liberal-democratic-senate-candidate-20160603-gpazt5.html#ixzz4AV9ipuDH
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  12. Right, I have read up on Yahoo Answers and it seems alcohol (in small doses in diluted forms like wine, beer, and I assume Kahlua in milk) isnt going to kill my cat.

    Now, before you all go spare on me, whilst my cat is being quite annoying at the moment I will not feed it Kahlua. I dont want any grief from the kids if something does happen – like it falling off the deck or passing out in the fire or the like.

  13. Turnbull seems t be running an excellent line in weasel words lately.

    Moira Williams, from 350.org, said “this must finally be the nail in the coffin for the Adani Carmichael coal mine. There is no finance for it now, there is no appetite for it in Australia or globally and Mr Turnbull has confirmed that today.”

    Except that he didn’t. A spokesperson from the office of Prime Minister and Cabinet said Malcolm Turnbull’s “position is completely in line with what the Minister for Resources has said”. The Minister for Energy and Resources, Josh Frydenberg, has not ruled out public money being used to help develop Adani’s coal mine or others in the Galilee Basin.

    “As I have consistently said, the Carmichael project is a commercial operation and it needs to stand on its own two feet,” Frydenberg told the Courier Mail in October last year. But he went on to say that investment decisions under the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, “will be made by its independent board with the goal of putting in place key economic infrastructure that helps to develop the north”.

    Prime Minister Turnbull’s staff confirmed that there is still a possibility the Board could decide to assist in the construction of infrastructure linked to the Adani project.

    On hearing the news Dan Spencer said, “the Prime Minister really needs to come clean here. If he’s saying publicly there’s no funding for Adani, and his staff are staying different things, that’s not good enough.

    https://newmatilda.com/2016/06/03/green-groups-swallow-tricky-turnbull-line-hook-and-sinker/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork

  14. Queenslander!

    #ReachTEL Poll Seat of Longman 2 Party Preferred: LNP 50 (-6.9 from 2013) ALP 50 (+6.9) #ausvotes 

  15. dave:

    #cash4candidacy?

    These mirco party reps are total amateurs. Every good Liberal knows you hide your begging behind a solid, non-disclosable front.

  16. I know there are differences between Labor and the LNP re asylum seeker policies but can’t remember the exact details. Someone tried to tell me they were the same over a very liquid lunch but wasn’t sure of my facts. I do know that Labor was going to increase the refuge intake but can’t remember the rest. Can anyone enlighten?

  17. Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 2m2 minutes ago Canberra, Australian Capital Territory
    Recently expressed opinion, inter alia, that PUP in 2013 makes Longman look on paper a little safer than it is.

  18. Gee, truly, a “surge” back to 50/50? Thought the polls have been on or about this for weeks. BTrack on the money again?

  19. 7News ReachTEL

    2PP 50-50 (+2 to LNP since last week)

    Primaries
    LNP 41.5 (+0.4)
    ALP 34.9 (-1.6)
    GRN 10.1 (+0.5)
    NXT 5 (+0.7)

    PPM 55.6-44.4 to Turnbull (+0.7 to Turnbull)
    Who’s campaigning better? 48.1-51.9 to Shorten

  20. Bemused
    Out where I am everyone in the ALP (especially the ALP candidate) shares some if not all of my views. Of the ALP members I know I would not even be on the extreme “green side.”

    If it was on a scale of 1-10 say on how green are my fellow ALP members I would rank in the greenest 25% but not the greenest 10%. There is one nearby branch where I have friends known as the KGB (also an acronym for the suburb) but it is way to the green/left of me.

    I am not sure who you mix with in your Melbourne Branch but seriously I think that my views are a heck of a lot closer to the ALP membership than your are. Possibly in Melbouirnebecause of the stregth of the greens, more of the original ALP left have drifted to the greens so you get a skewed sample.

    As I think I have discussed before, the greens seem to differ quite a bit in their demographics. I may be way over generalising things but my impression is:
    Melbourne the Greens have collected what was once the Labor Left – the people who would vote for Tanner, but not Feeney. This is a pretty good description of my poplitical position
    Sydney: Still dominated by the hard socialist left – Hal Greenland and Lee Rhiannon – old warriors of the Vietname moratorium era..I think in Sydeny I would find it HARD to be well connected with Greens .
    Brisbane: The Greens here I think are very much more conservative than in Sydney. Always were. Always had some conections with the Liberals. They are however generally lovely people. Spent many, many hours on a booth with Larissa Water’s mother (I was in red, she was in green). Truly lovely person and not in the least dogmatic.

  21. darn @ #369 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 5:06 pm

    Regarding ReachTEL, I think there was a general perception last time that the primaries did not support the 52-48 headline figure. So a correction would seem most likely. I’m tipping 50-50. If it’s any worse than that, coming on top of the Essential dip, I think Labor could be in strife.

    Only if your defeatism were to take hold.
    Others, like Briefly and me will continue calmly campaigning for an ALP victory.

  22. Fess, if you vote Labor and they come first or second in your electorate on primaries and stay 1st or 2nd through the count, it doesn’t matter how you number the other boxes, whether holding your nose, standing on your hands, whistling Dixie, or whatever. Your vote will go into the Labor pile and stay there till they win or come second. Just number them all (or all but one) so the silly formality rule doesn’t getcha. Even in Melbun Ports it doesn’t matter whether you give your number 2 to (ugh) Libs or (shiver) Green. The Member for Israel will win on Green and Sexy preferences or possibly not, but your vote will stay in his pile and never be distributed. On the other hand if you were in Sturt or Mayo you’d really have to think.

  23. Lib primary up only 0.4% nothing to celebrate for them.Greens and NXT vote could easily come back to Labor.

  24. Bemused
    Friday, June 3, 2016 at 6:17 pm
    darn @ #369 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 5:06 pm

    Regarding ReachTEL, I think there was a general perception last time that the primaries did not support the 52-48 headline figure. So a correction would seem most likely. I’m tipping 50-50. If it’s any worse than that, coming on top of the Essential dip, I think Labor could be in strife.

    Only if your defeatism were to take hold.
    Others, like Briefly and me will continue calmly campaigning for an ALP victory.

    All power to you and briefly Bemused. You guys do a fabulous job.
    But give me credit for one thing. My prediction of 50-50 was correct.

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