There should a lot of entertainment in store for poll watchers in the form of national polling over the coming days, and we’ve had a few appetisers over the night with scattered reports of privately commissioned electorate-level polling conducted by ReachTEL. Due caution must be allowed for the fact that some of the polls were conducted several weeks ago, and all were commissioned by left-of-centre concerns who might feel more inclined to publicise their poll results when they like what they show. With that in mind:
• The freshest of the batch is a poll crediting Labor with a 51-49 lead in the northern Tasmanian seat of Bass. This suggests a 5% swing against Liberal member Andrew Nikolic, who gained it with a 10.8% swing in 2013. The poll was conducted on Tuesday for GetUp! from a sample of 824.
• The Advertiser reports troubling numbers for the Liberals from South Australia in further polling conducted for GetUp! Christopher Pyne is credited with 41% of the primary vote in his seat of Sturt, compared with 21% for Nick Xenophon Team candidate Matthew Wright and 20% for Labor’s Matt Loader and 8% for the Greens. In Mayo, Liberal member Jamie Briggs is at 40%, against 23.5% for Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, 18% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. Either seat would be under threat from NXT on those numbers, provided their candidates were able to get ahead of Labor. The scale of the threat would also depend on whether the remainders include an undecided component, as is usually the case in ReachTEL’s electorate polling. If so, distributing the undecided would push the Liberal primary vote up high enough that they would most likely make it over the line, although only just. The Sturt poll was conducted on May 22 from a sample of 762, and the Mayo poll was on May 16 from a sample of 681.
• The West Australian reports a poll of the Perth seat of Cowan credited Labor’s Anne Aly with a 51-49 lead over Liberal member Luke Simkins, whose 7.5% margin has been pared back to 4.0% in the redistribution. The implied swing of 5% is actually at the low end of the Labor’s recent form in polling from Western Australia. However, this poll is showing its age a little, having been conducted on May 10 for the United Voice union from a sample of 731. The West’s report also relates that the Liberals’ internal pollsters, Crosby-Textor, have recorded a 6% swing to Labor in the new seat of Burt, which has a notional Liberal margin of 4.9%.
What does a chicken say when you wave a lettuce leaf in front of its face?
Chicken sees a salad.
The TurdBurgler has blanket NRL including front page. Looking closer, one finds:
– Bill Shorten ‘stumbles’ trying to explain renewable energy costings
– Peta Credlin provides running commentary on the Lying Waffle, should wrap himself in the flag apparently
– Warren Mundine surfaces bagging his former party
– the bubbling superannuation victims amongst the Liberal base are not happy chappys
I had no idea that this was true.
Turnbull is demeaning himself in cuddling up to the Corgi and his Conservative dreams.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-captured-headlining-fundraiser-at-cory-bernardis-conservative-foundation-20160602-gpaekk.html
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Lenore Taylor says that Morrison has lost credibility with his claims that Labor is waging a war on everything. She wasn’t at all impressed by it.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/02/election-2016-scott-morrison-strains-credibility-with-claims-of-a-labor-war-on-everything
Turnbull in danger of catching fleas from laying down with this mob.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-captured-headlining-fundraiser-at-cory-bernardis-conservative-foundation-20160602-gpaekk.html
Labor gives Michelle Guthrie a blistering welcome over the ABC Vote Compass.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-labor-in-stoush-with-abc-over-vote-compass-20160602-gpa4xc.html
Laura Tingle says that once again an election boils down to tax. Google.
/opinion/columnists/laura-tingle/election-2016-once-again-it-comes-down-to-tax-20160601-gp9g7m
Dan Andres has got himself into a real fix with the CFA issue. It is not going to end well.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/firefighters-union-close-to-victory-on-cfa-pay-deal-20160601-gp9kvn.html
Sky News might want to review its contract with Bronny.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-its-still-not-for-now-bronwyn-bishop-remains-tightlipped-in-carcrash-tv-interview-20160602-gpaehl.html
A major seniors’ lobby has warned the Coalition of the red hot anger that exists over super and pension changes.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/02/pension-changes-coalition-warned-of-red-hot-anger-election
The case against religious exemptions.
https://newmatilda.com/2016/06/03/bigotry-in-the-name-of-god-the-case-against-religious-exemptions/
Michelle Grattan, according to Latika Bourke, got some interesting stuff out of Abbott in along interview.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-tony-abbott-vows-to-be-useful-and-stand-up-for-conservative-positions-next-term-20160602-gpagnk.html
Here is the Michelle Grattan piece on the Abbott interview. It includes the transcript.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-in-conversation-with-tony-abbott-60392
Section 2 . . .
David Wroe gets into Turnbull and Morrison over their very poorly timed use of war metaphors.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/war-and-repatriation-scott-morrison-and-malcolm-turnbull-in-staggering-display-of-oblivious-timing-20160602-gpa4p8.html
Turnbull’s father-in-law Tom Hughes QC told him Abbott was a lunatic and that it was a catastrophic decision for the Liberals to elect him as leader. Google.
/national-affairs/making-lunatic-abbott-lib-leader-a-folly-hughes-wrote-to-turnbull/news-story/1b5df3df20769b5d2e85f513cc07d59d
“View from the Street” considers a breakaway by Bernardi and Abetz.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-could-cory-bernardi-go-independent-after-the-election-20160602-gpa64l.html
We should turn up the heat on Turnbull after he has failed the public on SSM writes Jonathon Ireland.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/turnbull-fails-public-by-caving-in-to-neocons-on-same-sex-marriage-plebiscite,9061
Jennifer Hewett asks where is industrial relations, the reason for the DD, in this election campaign? Google.
/opinion/columnists/industrial-relations-missing-in-action-in-the-campaign-20160602-gpa9d7
Jess Irvine wonders what will cross people’s minds when they vote.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/if-turnbull-or-shorten-are-the-answer-whats-the-question-20160602-gp9vqj.html
How will Turnbull’s $48.2b corporate tax cut be funded?
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/q-how-will-the-turnbull-governments-corporate-tax-cut-be-funded,9059
It’s time to put jail in the agenda for rip-off artists.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/jail-needed-to-protect-consumers-from-scam-artists-government-told-20160602-gp9ylu.html
Just what is it with our unquenchable thirst for bottled water?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/nick-earls/whats-with-our-unquenchable-thirst-for-bottled-water/
Stephen Koukoulas fact checks ABC Fact Checker.
http://thekouk.com/blog/abc-fact-check-bias-incompetence-a-misunderstanding.html
Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner
Australia’s real lifters and leaners.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/australias-real-lifters-and-leaners,9060
Tim Flannery on the plight of the Great Barrier Reef.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-great-barrier-reef-is-losing-its-adjective-and-its-our-fault-20160602-gp9qsh.html
Ron Tandberg on Morrison’s use of war metaphors.
Andrew Dyson on the political outlook for Turnbull and Shorten.
Ron Tandberg joins the protests with some nice work.
David Pope uses a story on the trendy deconstructed coffee craze to have a dip at Morrison.
David Rowe visits the mattress factory with the Turnbull team. Even the rat is there.
Mark Knight hits the spot with the problem Dan Andrews is having with the CFA.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ee9578b2b753bbf225ad9814fbda2794?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
And the SmearStralian reverts to type. It’s target for smearing with unsubstantiated innuendo and claptrap? Well Mr X himself. Enjoy the next few week Nick, having the garbage-can-ruffling goons at the Smear give you the Rupert trade marked treatment. Today’s installment:
– Property Scandal for Xenephon
– X Factor puts Trade Deals at Risk
For balance, they have an Exclusive with Tom Hughes QC, Lucy Turnbull’s father who quite perceptively and persuasively argues that Tony Abbott is a ‘lunatic’.
–
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-great-barrier-reef-is-losing-its-adjective-and-its-our-fault-20160602-gp9qsh.html
Looking at the polls in SA, it looks like if a Green or Labor voter wants to unseat the Lib member, they’ll have to preference NXT above Labor or Green.
Good morning all,
The Libs have now moved on to distributing a 2011 video of Bill Shorten talking up the 1% company tax cut labor tries to legislate at that time. Trying to show up his ” hyprocracy”.
Desperate measure I would think. This should be a gift for labor.
They can argue that the budget cannot handle it now, priorities are important and labor is on the side of health, education etc rather than 50 billion in tax cuts to big business. It writes itself. Says to me the Libs are a bit desperate.
BTW, the tax cut did not get through the senate anyway as it was opposed by the liberals and the greens. Hyprocricy writ large.
Go for it labor.
Cheers.
Thanks BK.
Nice detail featuring the Finance Minister in David Pope’s cartoon. And in Rowe’s, is that just a generic mafia movie or in reference to an actual movie? Looks familiar…..
That was based on the Mining Tax, if I recall.
And they should also show the Business Council talking the tax cut DOWN at the time. They had their chance for a tax cut years ago and blew it.
Thanks BK
Why is the environment such a fizzer with the average yokel voter in Australia?
There is “white hot anger” over some minor super changes, yet nothing, nothing when it comes to the plight of the Barrier Reef?
Interesting story of a Liberal turned Green. But where would his second preference go?
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/03/former-liberal-candidate-for-brisbane-joins-greens-saying-hes-ashamed-of-party?CMP=share_btn_tw
Xenophon will get my second pref in Mayo ..so I feel my vote won’t be wasted in what was a safe Liberal seat, and may even help to rid us of the odious Briggs ..Greens will be preferenced last..
[And the SmearStralian reverts to type. It’s target for smearing with unsubstantiated innuendo and claptrap? Well Mr X himself.]
I’m not a big X fan, and I think South Australians are looking to lock down dumbest state in Australia with their support for him, but what news does with their ‘campaigns’ is disgusting and I cannot believe Murdoch has so much power he got over his little problem in the UK, which should have been a disaster that ended him. Shows those with money are largely above the law.
Happy 60th Puff!
I usually demand a recount on my birthdays 🙂
An interesting article today on abc.net.au news concerning dark matter, dark energy and the expansion of the universe.
Perhaps these invisible energies explain the rapidly expanding amount of political bullshit at present.
Listening to Tony Burke on am leads me to suspect Labor will be ramping up it’s attack on Turnbull’s ‘Fraudband’ debacle ..lot’s of people apparently complaining FTTNode is worse than ADSL..
..hope Labor go hard on this as it’s become a major talking point on social media..
How the LNP, not Labor, wrecked the budget
https://westernsydneywonk.wordpress.com/2016/05/26/forget-the-pundits-budget-papers-show-coalition-not-labor-wrecked-the-budget/
‘Listening to Tony Burke on am leads me to suspect Labor will be ramping up it’s attack on Turnbull’s ‘Fraudband’ debacle ..lot’s of people apparently complaining FTTNode is worse than ADSL..’
Yep and then link that to the economy – the main thing that defines the LNP is the old economy and their war on innovation.
Wrong people tp put in charge when transitioning beyong a minim boom.
“THE LNP’s WAR ON INNOVATION”
Try this one for out!
Two equally useless bastards, Turnbull and Briggs together in Mount Barker at 9:00 am.
Murdoch will portrayNick Xenophon as the Huey Long of the Australian South.
From a purely political point of view I’m beginning to wonder if Shorten would have been better served by attending the ceremony for the fallen soldiers. There is widespread criticism of both he and Turnbull for not being there.
A countervailing argument put by Price and Bolt and one or two others, is that without Turnbull there as well it would have been seen as a cynical move on Shorten’s part. It has also been suggested that Shorten was probably not invited and could not go anyway.
I actually agree with those who have said that it was appropriate for the GG to represent the government. But it still would have been interesting to see how it played out if Shorten had attended.
Thats a bad result for Greens in Mayo. Down to 10% from something like 17% in 2010.
The distribution of the 10% undecideds is interesting but in 2013 there was 11% for others (FF and Palmer).
Labor at 18% is within MOE of last election (esp if you distribute the undecideds). So I am holding with my assertion NXT isnt getting ALP votes but getting disaffected Lib voters – admittedly at least partly at the expense of them going to the ALP.
All said, NXT at 23% in Mayo is seriously bad news for Briggs. Cant imagine Sharkie being too supportive of a ALP minority government tho’.
I don’t think you just “attend” those kinds of functions. Turning up uninvited would have been seen as gatecrashing… and would have been.
More to the point: why wasn’t Turnbull invited? And if he was, why didn’t he go?
It may have been something to do with the Caretaker provisions, of course. Perhaps the families didn’t want the matter to be sullied by pollies vying for election.
Let us be thankful, whatever the reason. Turnbull’s No Show gave us the opportunity to see the full madness of the Coalition campaign, which is increasingly becoming more akin to a Reality TV promo than a rational discussion of issues.
Thanks for the warning Trog!
Yes, Tony Burke was very impressive on AM. The Labor front bench is so far ahead of its LNP counterparts it isn’t funny.
A bit like certain jokes…
Trog, 9am local time?
Thats probably early enough to be safe for them. It can get pretty grizzly there for a blue ribbon ruler type if they arent careful. Tunrbull will feel like he is back in Wyong.
Does it really make any difference? Wouldn’t a second preference to the Greens for example and a third preference to NXT end up with NXT anyway, providing that the NXT primary was above that of Labor. Or am I just hopelessly confused?
Just read a really interesting article about peak (demand not supply) oil coming as soon as the mid 30’s.
One thing I had no idea of, is Chinese electric vehicles. Your new electric vehicle might be a great wall not a tesla.
[BYD projects China’s EV market will double in size this year, and again next year, and once again in 2018. That would mean China’s EV sales would blow past one million vehicles a year within three years.
“If China gets moving on electric cars then that would automatically lower prices and have a favorable ripple effect across the whole world,” as one auto expert has said. That is exactly what drove the exponential explosion in solar power worldwide this decade.]
“Looking at the polls in SA, it looks like if a Green or Labor voter wants to unseat the Lib member, they’ll have to preference NXT above Labor or Green.”
Not much chance of Labor preferences being distributed ahead of Greens ones on those numbers, so their voters’ preferences won’t matter.
But Mayo at least is shaping up as an unusually clear case of strategic voting under preferential voting. Greens voters, with a true preference of 1. GRN 2. ALP 3. NXT 4. LNP risk having NXT distributed before ALP and thus getting LNP elected, and would be better of voting an ‘incorrect’ preference of 1. GRN 2. NXT 3. ALP 4. LNP.
darn @ #25 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 8:49 am
I don’t think it’s a big deal that neither attended. It’s just the right wingers who are getting their knickers in a twist. And Shorten played it well by not going on his own. He had nothing to gain and a lot to lose by being misrepresented as playing politics.
So briefly did you just hand me a Anne Aly flyer at Bassendean station?
If so you are a lot younger than I thought!
Red white and blue shirt?
Graphs comparing decline in public perception of Fizza mark 1 & mark 2.
The 2PP will be along directly. The “structural 2PP” (a syphological term) should be around 53/47 to Labor.
http://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/approval-decline-of-turnbull-mark-1-and-turnbull-mark-2-in-synch/news-story/47a7cadbe08c95463d5720419d296a14
Darn..
Of course it makes no difference ..except to make me feel better …Greens need to be destroyed just as much as the R/W of the Libs..
Oh wow, wouldn’t it be wonderful if Briggs AND Pyne lost their seats!
And happy birthday to Puffy.
Martin B,
I am not in Mayo, but did a quick calc and agree with you. I would strategically put NXT second whether voting ALP or Green. I do not think ALP or Green are likely to take the seat, and I would definitely prefer NXT to Liberal. However, I do think NXT will be generally more supportive of the Libs
Simon
Yes -according to Jai’me’s website.
A good chance for some PB’ers or others to welcome Fizza to Mt Barker.
Simon K
I have to admit that avatar of your’s gives me a laugh every time I see it. I guess I’m just easily amused.
Was there some deeper meaning in choosing the fairy – a longing for a return to childhood perhaps – or are you just easily amused too?
Trog Sorrenson @ #13 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 8:17 am
Two main reasons, I think:
1. Most voters, when they think of the environment, aren’t looking solely at the benefits of preserving it. Rather, they look at the costs as well – specifically, the economic costs of government intervention of the environment. (Think job losses, higher taxes, etc.)
2. Superannuation is a lifetime commitment and a daily concern to practically everybody, and is potentially worth up to millions of dollars for some people. Thus, any changes to super (however minor) is going to get national attention. The environment, on the other hand, isn’t anywhere near the level of intrusion into people’s lifestyle that super does. So not as many average voters are going to get upset over it. (Even though they totally should.)
And speaking of the GBR specifically, considering that most average voters rarely move from place to place, and don’t live in the places where the ecology and economy is directly tied to the GBR; it’s hard for an average voter to get upset over something they’ve rarely ever seen.
lefty e @ #21 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 8:40 am
Stop the Notes!
Darn, I am easily amused.
The fairy is Nanny Plum (I am not a fairy). Nanny Plum is a crack up of a cartoon character from Ben and Holly’s Little Kingdom and I watch it with my children whenever I can. I am not sure which of us laughs the most.
Good Morning
Happy Birthday PUff!!
I see the polling has done their best to lift your spirits today with that news about SA and Tas. 🙂
Trog, I cant make it to Mt Barker, and I think I would have missed them going under the pedestrian bridge over the freeway at Crafers. Drat!
Millenial
I get that. My question was rhetorical.
One cause is a lack of political leadership. I’ll bet that if the GBR was in Germany, a lot more would have been done and earlier.
political_alert: Labor has announced a $44 million ‘Tasmania Tourism Infrastructure Fund’ https://t.co/cpXFaKVwGu #ausvotes
Heh @ Autocrat