There should a lot of entertainment in store for poll watchers in the form of national polling over the coming days, and we’ve had a few appetisers over the night with scattered reports of privately commissioned electorate-level polling conducted by ReachTEL. Due caution must be allowed for the fact that some of the polls were conducted several weeks ago, and all were commissioned by left-of-centre concerns who might feel more inclined to publicise their poll results when they like what they show. With that in mind:
• The freshest of the batch is a poll crediting Labor with a 51-49 lead in the northern Tasmanian seat of Bass. This suggests a 5% swing against Liberal member Andrew Nikolic, who gained it with a 10.8% swing in 2013. The poll was conducted on Tuesday for GetUp! from a sample of 824.
• The Advertiser reports troubling numbers for the Liberals from South Australia in further polling conducted for GetUp! Christopher Pyne is credited with 41% of the primary vote in his seat of Sturt, compared with 21% for Nick Xenophon Team candidate Matthew Wright and 20% for Labor’s Matt Loader and 8% for the Greens. In Mayo, Liberal member Jamie Briggs is at 40%, against 23.5% for Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, 18% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. Either seat would be under threat from NXT on those numbers, provided their candidates were able to get ahead of Labor. The scale of the threat would also depend on whether the remainders include an undecided component, as is usually the case in ReachTEL’s electorate polling. If so, distributing the undecided would push the Liberal primary vote up high enough that they would most likely make it over the line, although only just. The Sturt poll was conducted on May 22 from a sample of 762, and the Mayo poll was on May 16 from a sample of 681.
• The West Australian reports a poll of the Perth seat of Cowan credited Labor’s Anne Aly with a 51-49 lead over Liberal member Luke Simkins, whose 7.5% margin has been pared back to 4.0% in the redistribution. The implied swing of 5% is actually at the low end of the Labor’s recent form in polling from Western Australia. However, this poll is showing its age a little, having been conducted on May 10 for the United Voice union from a sample of 731. The West’s report also relates that the Liberals’ internal pollsters, Crosby-Textor, have recorded a 6% swing to Labor in the new seat of Burt, which has a notional Liberal margin of 4.9%.
Dio – re Sturt.
Handshin got 41.5% primary vote in 2007. Loader currently polling very low 20’s.
Stephen Long on “The strange modelling used to sell company tax cuts”. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-03/long-the-strange-modelling-used-to-sell-company-tax-cuts/7473480
Great work.
Fizza’s contribution to the Arts.
The Prime Minister’s Monty Python Dead Parrot Contest for dead things that really aren’t.
Or is it live things that are really dead.
ken mcneill @ #18 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 8:35 am
Dark energy. Ugh. The most odious physical theory I’ve ever heard. I think Brian Schmidt should return his Nobel prize and apologize, then go back to the drawing board and find out where he went wrong.
The Guardian has an interesting opinion piece “We’re now witnessing the tragic decline of David Cameron”. If one were to replace “David Cameron” with “Malcolm Turnbull” there is an eerie similarity with the current situation in Australia.
For example,
“on issues from disability benefits to trade union rights to schools, Downing Street is already littered with U-turns and tactical retreats”
and
“Despite having managed to unexpectedly win an election outright, his government’s latest legislative programme amounts to precious little: as Michael Portillo elegantly put it two weeks ago: ‘After 23 years of careful thought about what they would like to do in power … the answer is nothing’”.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/02/tragic-decline-david-cameron-end-tory-leader
Lol Team Player Abbott…
And the fools on PB need to look at the real enemy, you guys are still fighting your own wars!!
raara
i am just going on an article about diect instruction where SRA got a mention
briefly @ #199 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 1:19 pm
For either the Greens or Laborites to claim to have moral superiority would be hypocritical. In Senate tickets of the past, they both put a multitude of other parties (and possibly the Libs) ahead of NXT’s second and subsequent candidates.
Citizen…precisely. The LNP believe in doing as little as possible. The absence of policy is not accidental. It reflects their basic beliefs, which are that the State cannot do anything useful and therefore it’s pointless trying. This really means that LNP “Government” is a sham. They want to do much, much less than has been done in the past.
But it is almost impossible to sell “much, much less” to an electorate that actually wants more services and investment and expect competence and value for money too.
The Tories have to adopt the politics of deception. They are very good at it.
It it’s both Labor and the Greens interest to preference Tone Windsor above the other in New England.
Election campaign hits halfway point
ELECTION CAMPAIGN: FIRST HALF REPORT CARD
* Turnbull: Marginal seats in western Sydney and Brisbane have received the lion’s share of the prime minister’s attention, but he’s also done two swings through regional Queensland, popped in to northern Tasmania and shown his face briefly in Perth, Adelaide, Darwin, Melbourne, the NSW south and central coasts and Victoria’s Great Ocean Road.
* Shorten: Began his tour with a week in regional Queensland, which he has since revisited, but has also focused on western Sydney and Brisbane with some stints in northern and central NSW, Geelong, Adelaide, Perth, Melbourne, Darwin and northern Tasmania.
WHAT HAVE THEY FOCUSED ON?
* Turnbull: The PM’s focus has been talking up corporate tax cuts and his innovation plan to drive jobs and growth.
* Shorten: The opposition leader says extra spending on education and skills will boost the economy, while the $50 billion the government wants to spend on a corporate tax cut could be better spent on health and other services.
LINES OF ATTACK
* Turnbull: A Shorten government has a “spendometer” that would put the economy at risk, along with Labor’s changes to negative gearing, no tax breaks for business and union bosses strangling jobs.
* Shorten: Turnbull has disappointed voters by not standing by his principles on climate change and same-sex marriage and letting the Abbott conservatives and the Liberals’ corporate backers rule the roost.
WHAT ARE THE POLLS SAYING?
* Polls give Labor a slight edge in two-party terms, but drilling down to seats it appears the Turnbull government could hold on despite losing a net 10 to 12 seats out of their current 90.
* The Senate will remain in minority, with Greens and independents holding the balance of power.
WHAT’S THE MOOD?
“If there are any baseball bats out, they are inflatable ones that don’t actually do too much damage.”
– Independent senator Nick Xenophon talks down a change of government.
“They put them to sleep last night.”
– Nine Network’s Laurie Oakes on the first formal leaders’ debate.
“This is not an election where it’s the top half of the cup versus the bottom half of the cup. Malcolm Turnbull has decided to back the very top, the froth of the cappuccino.”
– Labor campaign spokesman Tony Burke.
“He has an inspirational self-made background and he’s got to disable Labor’s attack by telling his story rather than let them define him.”
– Peta Credlin, Tony Abbott’s former chief of staff, backpedalling on her description of Turnbull as “Mr Harbourside Mansion”.
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/election-campaign-hits-halfway-point/news-story/7d34f3b021cf69681f31606fce1a6571
An important difference between the old SRA Lab stuff and “Direct instruction” (SRA style – there are other DI approaches) is that there is more teacher-student interaction in the latter, but both are highly programatic, which works in some situations, but is less so in others.
zoidlord
[ And the fools on PB need to look at the real enemy, you guys are still fighting your own wars!! ]
It is possible to have more than one enemy, and to fight more than one battle at a time.
RaaRaa…
The G’s have to decide whether to help defeat the Liberals and, quite likely, help bring down the worst Government in post-war history. Or, alternatively, whether to help sustain them in office.
We will soon see what they choose to do.
20 years ago, the majors, including the Liberals, agreed to defeat One Nation by putting them last on their HTVs. This was an easy decision for some to make and a difficult one for others. Nevertheless, it was an agreed position and it worked. What will the G’s do now? Will they take a position that is contrary to their own immediate interest? Or will they help defeat the Liberals?
‘BOTH ARE JERKS’: What Aussies really think about election
HALFWAY through a mammoth eight-week campaign, you might think the politicians would be doing a reasonable job of getting their messages across to Australia.
“They’re all the same to be honest,” he added. “I think they’re just wasting our money going around doing all this when they should be running our country.”
Anecdotally, it seems Mr Turnbull might have the edge, but no one’s thrilled by the idea of either potential future government.
Lawyer Alan Richardson, a 43-year-old from Victoria, laid some of the blame with the public. “Australians are very apathetic,” he said. “I’ve given up on Australians.”
http://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/what-voters-really-think-of-the-federal-election/news-story/bd048e72b57cdb1fc60124a3691d6e68
WarrenPeace
Will the G’s treat NXT in the same way as they treat Windsor?
BRIEFLY – the NBN is the paradigm example. The Libs just flat-out DON’T believe in it. So it’s easy for them to justify to themselves building a shitty NBN.
Turnbull’s got his rictus grin going on again. It looks as though he’s doing this press conference at gunpoint. “Smile, Malcolm! You’re so happy right now! Smile, or I pull the trigger!”
Player One Friday, June 3, 2016 at 1:39 pm
zoidlord
[ And the fools on PB need to look at the real enemy, you guys are still fighting your own wars!! ]
It is possible to have more than one enemy, and to fight more than one battle at a time.
*********************************************
Law Of Warfare not to fight on 2 Fronts at the same time – as Adolph Hitler did
The fact that Hitler’s Germany had to fight a two-front war — in the west, against the U.S., the U.K. and other allies, and in the east against Russia — played a critical role in that country’s defeat, and without it, the course of the war may have been different. In short, the Germans could not sustain assaults from the U.S., U.K. and their allies in the west and the Soviet Union — the predecessor to Russia — in the east after D-Day.
Chinese banquet for my sixtieth. Does that make me a Chinese Dragon for the day?
🙂
The Reef is dying – maybe not tomorrow, but soon. Since both Coalition and ALP have pussyfooted around the problem, should we all vote Green to save it? I don’t think that would fix it. We urgently need a whole of government effort. The same as in regard to Climate Change.
Hopeless.
Sigh.
I see Colton posting praise on Clinton.
There is another poll out showing a close race in California between Clinton and Sanders. This time its a highly rated pollster albeit a very small sample and large undecideds.
“As for your characterisations of Labor as some Rightist conspiracy” – Briefly, you really must learn to read – read all the words and put them together to get the sense out of them, making inferences where necessary but not leaping to crazy conclusions. I did NOT say Labor is some Rightist conspiracy. I DID say it has a well-disciplined right wing (in which incidentally a tame-cat union that does dirty deals with major corporations plays a leading role). And you’ve just said it again _ “the G’s have to decide” as if they can tell their voters what to do. They can’t – we are all individuals, the Labor Right less than most and the Greens more than most. Break free of your pre-programming and start to realise that a lot of other people already have done so. And best wishes on the campaign trail – you’re on the right (ie left) side even if you’re often so wrong.
So Talcum is still considering another debate … frightened methinks
[PhoenixRED
Friday, June 3, 2016 at 1:40 pm
‘BOTH ARE JERKS’: What Aussies really think about election]
This is the old MSM standby – a pox on both their houses. As nobody in the MSM is apparently permitted to say that Malcolm is a dud, it is necessary to say that both Malcolm ad Bill are duds. It’s called balanced reporting.
Sadly Puff if you’re 60 this year it makes you a monkey. But the Chinese have a lot of respect for the wiliness of monkeys so it’s not all bad. [I on the other hand am a Golden Dragon which would make me feel pretty special – if I believed in any form of astrology!]
Loader is not running dead actually.
They are going for the long shot of trying to make it a three-way split and hoping Loader gets 2nd then pulls sufficient preferences.
Unlikely to succeed and it might be revised to a “run dead” strategy in the near future but there is a desire to try and win the seat.
I add that this comes from the mouths of both the campaign manager and the 2010&2013 Labor candidate for the seat – both of whom I am personally acquainted with (on a level where they are honest about outlooks.)
Mayo, OTOH, I am reliably informed Labor is definitely running dead in favour of NXT.
The conspiracy theories about the Greens preferencing against Xenophon is a bit bizarre. They could plausibly preference either NXT or Labor, but would be sensible to run open tickets since it’s a matter about which Greens voters may well disagree – ousting Liberals is always a good result, but if I were in SA voting for a Xenophon anti-penalty-rater over a Labor candidate would leave a bad taste in my mouth.
The Germans would probably have lost if it had only been a one front war with the USSR. The USSR had far more men, and women, available to fight. They also had greater access to resources, especially oil.
I think I heard a statistic that it took the USSR three months to produce as many T-34 tanks as Germany produced Tiger tanks in the entire war.
The war might have lasted longer without the UK and US, but I think Germany would have lost in the end.
Citizen, it’s not just the MSM standby, there are a lot of ordinary people out there who do think that way. They haven’t bloody been paying attention (especially during the Work Choices (for Bosses) vs Fair Work saga) but sadly they do think that way. And whenever Labor tries to say they’re for the people and for equality the C-turds start the “war on business” cry. Up to now it’s scared Labor off, but maybe Bill is going to stick to his guns and emphasise the difference. Maybe Briefly can even play his part and stop obsessing about the Greens???
“TT
[I shall be disgusted if either the ALP or the Greens preference the Libs ahead of NXT.]
I can’t see Labor doing it; that would make it more likely that the Libs form a majority government. Labor is running dead in Sturt and are clearly hoping X will knock off Pyne.”
Unless Labor has to use it as a chip to keep Batman. Sorry but Labor is in the business of winning seats and the Liberals might fold in on the Greens-Liberals preference deal in Batman if they think Pyne or Briggs will lose.
Xenophen is not that admirable. He is a former member of the Liberal party and also hasn’t ruled out supporting the ABCC. I wouldn’t trust him with a Liberal government with the balance of power even if you paid me.
I’m a rooster, which I’m sure is unsurprising to some of you.
Raaraa: Xenophon ceded any claim to solidly deserving left preferences in 2013 by running Stirling Griff because of his views on penalty rates and ties to the business lobby. This was hardly a Steve Fielding/David Risstrom situation: while Bob Day is obviously worse than Griff on social issues, there’s not that much daylight between them that I’d judge any party for going with deals that might get actual lefties elected.
citizen Friday, June 3, 2016 at 1:53 pm
[PhoenixRED
Friday, June 3, 2016 at 1:40 pm
‘BOTH ARE JERKS’: What Aussies really think about election]
This is the old MSM standby – a pox on both their houses. As nobody in the MSM is apparently permitted to say that Malcolm is a dud, it is necessary to say that both Malcolm ad Bill are duds. It’s called balanced reporting.
****************************************************
I still go back to my theory that 35% ALWAYS vote LNP – 35% vote ALWAYS ALP ( like us tragics ) No Matter What …… and the 30 % left either vote for Greens, Others ……. and a certain % of that 30% don’t give a flying fuck about politics, Fizza or Bill …… unless it DIRECTLY affects them ( get cut off Centrelink, lose some benefit etc ) – and sadly its those in that % – who don’t give a toss unless – that wins or loses elections for either main party ….
Will everyone (Rebecca, most recently, but all of you) please stop talking about the Greens “preferencing” anybody? First, it would give all my old English teachers the screaming heebies. Secondly, as someone quoted above, whomever the Greens recommend on their HTVs gets just a few % of the vote more than if the recommendation went the other way. Thirdly, repeat after me – WE. ARE. ALL. INDIVIDUALS!
Let’s be honest, the reef in it’s current form is not going to survive. Even if we pull out all stops the warming that’s already locked in place will be terminal to much of it. Some of the southern parts might survive, but that’s it.
The only hope really is research that might identify, or modify species, of coral that can survive the warmer temperatures. That’s probably going to take some serious money. I think it’s also the area the ALP is proposing to fund.
BC, if it was a one-front war, the NAzis would have had plenty of resources (no blockade in the West). Further, never under-estimate the immense capacity of Soviet generals to get their men killed. They were brilliant at it.
And for those that think that the ABC is a nest of leftie radicals…caught the latter part of a program on RN with Savva, Van O and Kelly (Paul) all sometime contributors to the Oz newspaper, discussing a topic along the lines of “Leadership and the Oz Electoral System”. Apparently, this was recorded just recently at the Sydney Writers’ Festival or some such. Most of the time was spent ruing the lost years of the Abbott leadership and what coulda, shoulda, woulda have happened if Abbott had been able to transition to becoming a “leader”. They all kind of admitted that Abbott did not have what it took (now there is a surprise) but I almost choked when they all agreed that Abbott really, really was a “humble man”. Anyway, three Liberal Fan Club Members with their own, uninterrupted gig on good old Auntie. I suppose this is the ABC being even-handed. I think they should give Bolt a gig once a day, at say round 5 pm, to provide his considered opinion? I think that would about take care of the “bias” shrieks from the the LNP as far as the ABC is concerned.
Hands up them that think the MSM are bigger jerks
Has Greens Senator Whish-Wilson changed his views on penalty rates?
Hint: No he hasn’t.
Xenophon has changed his position on penalty rates, and I say good on him.
Jack A – i reckon im literate in english as well as politics. your charactetisations of labor are wrong. they are matched by the assumptions you make about the g’s being “left”. obviously, they suppose they are “left” and congratulate themselves for it. of course, they are no more than self-assembling decoys that tend to serve the objects of the libs.
in sa they will have to choose whether they are for themselves or for the defeat of the worst government since the 1930’s.
Sportsbet – Labor now favourites in Cowan. Actually, Labor favourites to pick up 3 in WA(Cowan, Burt, Hasluck), and in Swan, Labor and the Libs tied on 1.87
Xenophon – he’s more centre right than centre left, isn’t he?
why I suspect he’d side with Turnball in a balance of power situation
B.C. Friday, June 3, 2016 at 1:58 pm
The Germans would probably have lost if it had only been a one front war with the USSR. The USSR had far more men, and women, available to fight. They also had greater access to resources, especially oil.
********************************************
I think the Russians would not have survived without ALL the equipment the Allies UK/US sent to replace all their own equipment that was lost to the Germans :
In total 4 million tonnes of war materials including food and medical supplies were delivered. The munitions totaled £308m (not including naval munitions supplied), the food and raw materials totaled £120m in 1946 index. In accordance with the Anglo-Soviet Military Supplies Agreement of 27 June 1942, military aid sent from Britain to the Soviet Union during the war was entirely free of charge
In total, the U.S. deliveries through Lend-Lease amounted to $11 billion in materials: over 400,000 jeeps and trucks; 12,000 armored vehicles (including 7,000 tanks, about 1,386 of which were M3 Lees and 4,102 M4 Shermans); 11,400 aircraft (4,719 of which were Bell P-39 Airacobras)[40] and 1.75 million tons of food.
Roughly 17.5 million tons of military equipment, vehicles, industrial supplies, and food were shipped from the Western Hemisphere to the USSR, 94% coming from the US.
Between June 1941 and May 1945, Britain delivered to the USSR:
3,000+ Hurricanes
4,000+ other aircraft
27 naval vessels
5,218 tanks
5,000+ anti-tank guns
4,020 ambulances and trucks
323 machinery trucks
2,560 Universal Carriers
1,721 motorcycles
£1.15bn worth of aircraft engines
600 radar and sonar sets
Hundreds of naval guns
15 million pairs of boots
PhoenixRED
It has become clear in this election that if the ALP want to have a majority in the HoR (which they do) then they need to win over both the LNP and the Greens.
The father-in-law of Turnbull labelled Abbott a weather-vane on global warming in 2009. What does that make Malcolm in 2016, then? A meteorological bureau?
There are many dilemmas for preferencing in SA. The best outcome short term might be for Greens to run open tickets recommending either NXT or Labor ahead of Libs in seats where NXT might unseat Libs. But in seats where NXT might unseat Labor which could include most Labor seats (Port Adelaide,Wakefield, Makin, Adelaide and Kingston) Greens should advise preference to Labor then NXT. That’s not an easy message to sell and can be confusing.
All the bigger parties fear NXT – hence their decisions to all preference against X in the 2013 Senate election. Sometimes the long term view is to take a hit today in the hope that NXT will be less likely to be around in future. Hasn’t worked so far with X getting support because the biggies are ganging up on him.
And for Labor or Greens – if they think NXT is bound to support Libs in a minority govt – is it better to support them now and hope NXT get belted for supporting Libs – or is it to work with them in now in the hope of winning over NXT supporters later.
And off course getting the message right in order to attract Senate preferences and hence surplus from all the other parties is a tricky balancing act. Keep tuned.
Wont be long until the 83% that arent in unions realise thats why they are not getting pay rises.
player one @ #104 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 10:54 am
Please check now.
I’ve put a test in now so they can add and subtract that 2nd comment box as much as they like now.
cccp Ver 5.46