There should a lot of entertainment in store for poll watchers in the form of national polling over the coming days, and we’ve had a few appetisers over the night with scattered reports of privately commissioned electorate-level polling conducted by ReachTEL. Due caution must be allowed for the fact that some of the polls were conducted several weeks ago, and all were commissioned by left-of-centre concerns who might feel more inclined to publicise their poll results when they like what they show. With that in mind:
• The freshest of the batch is a poll crediting Labor with a 51-49 lead in the northern Tasmanian seat of Bass. This suggests a 5% swing against Liberal member Andrew Nikolic, who gained it with a 10.8% swing in 2013. The poll was conducted on Tuesday for GetUp! from a sample of 824.
• The Advertiser reports troubling numbers for the Liberals from South Australia in further polling conducted for GetUp! Christopher Pyne is credited with 41% of the primary vote in his seat of Sturt, compared with 21% for Nick Xenophon Team candidate Matthew Wright and 20% for Labor’s Matt Loader and 8% for the Greens. In Mayo, Liberal member Jamie Briggs is at 40%, against 23.5% for Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, 18% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. Either seat would be under threat from NXT on those numbers, provided their candidates were able to get ahead of Labor. The scale of the threat would also depend on whether the remainders include an undecided component, as is usually the case in ReachTEL’s electorate polling. If so, distributing the undecided would push the Liberal primary vote up high enough that they would most likely make it over the line, although only just. The Sturt poll was conducted on May 22 from a sample of 762, and the Mayo poll was on May 16 from a sample of 681.
• The West Australian reports a poll of the Perth seat of Cowan credited Labor’s Anne Aly with a 51-49 lead over Liberal member Luke Simkins, whose 7.5% margin has been pared back to 4.0% in the redistribution. The implied swing of 5% is actually at the low end of the Labor’s recent form in polling from Western Australia. However, this poll is showing its age a little, having been conducted on May 10 for the United Voice union from a sample of 731. The West’s report also relates that the Liberals’ internal pollsters, Crosby-Textor, have recorded a 6% swing to Labor in the new seat of Burt, which has a notional Liberal margin of 4.9%.
The airhead journos only ask questions that are relevant to whats in their shitty newspapers on that day.If a subject is not in their Liberal propaganda rags on that day then you can bet your bottom dollar it wont be asked about.
DTT: “I smiled at the “SRA Reading Laboratory”, and recalled my childhood experience.”
Ah, the old SRA Reading Laboratory! It was all the rage at French’s Forest Primary in 1961. My memory of it is that it was great fun for us highly competitive, strong reading, “top five” kids in the class, and seen as a bore / opportunity to do your own thing, etc etc. by just about everyone else.
My mum, who was teaching a remedial class at the same school at the same time, hated it.
For all the criticism of the ABC, I’d take them anyday over Sky or talkback radio.
I guess people here want the ABC to be 100% pro Shorten all the time, but that’s not the role of a national broadcaster, to be partisan towards either side of politics.
The average ABC viewer or listener hopes they are objective and present all viewpoints fairly
Trog,
there are large areas of Crafers and Stirling that is a lower economic demographic than the perception. Many bought up here before housing prices went up – even now there are houses going for under $600K with reasonable land in a leafy suburb 20minutes commute from the city.
I may have twinkle toes but do not own any golden shoes.
For bemused:
Woman goes to see her doctor:
Doc, I’m getting married for the 4th time, so I need a full medical to check that I’m in top shape.
After the medical the doc says:
Lady, you’re in perfect health, but I don’t get it, you’ve been married three times, and you’re still a virgin!
Well, you see doc, my first husband was a psychiatrist, and he just wanted to talk.
My second husband was a gynecologist, and he just wanted to watch.
And my third husband was a electrician, so he always arrived late.
But my new husband is a lawyer, so I’m bound to get screwed!
Told by the owner of a busy dress shop in Leura, when she learnt of my profession…
Whew. I thought the GBR was in danger, but Fizza, in the Hills today, tells us it’s not.
Thank Christ for that.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-protesting-nemo-finds-malcolm-turnbull-and-criticises-great-barrier-reef-action-20160603-gpaq21.html#ixzz4ATkHL8XA
Simon
Yes, I used to live in Crafers too.
Sadly I was not able to drag it up to my level and had to leave.
And maybe they saw me coming but Turnbulls scrum was accompanied by at least 6 heavies that I was able to count.
“I guess people here want the ABC to be 100% pro Shorten all the time, but that’s not the role of a national broadcaster, to be partisan towards either side of politics.”
No, no, no, and no.
We want decent, impartial journalism that does what it supposed to do.
I’m sure that nobody expects such a ludicrous proposition as 100% Shorten.
Take note Universe. We want some happy polling for Puff’s birthday!!
I love how people say “many of them do” this or that … without much foundation. In the 4 schools I worked in most of my colleagues whose behaviour suggested they vote ALP – however I rarely come across people who tell me outright who they vote for.
Soft Option
[ My strong feeling is that the government is wrong on their numbers and many soft Liberal voters may be motivated to swing on this issue. ]
I agree. Morrison stuffed up big time – which is why the government are so desperate to divert attention from it.
Briefly and Privi, on the last thread you were saying things like “the Greens have a chance to show their true colours in Mayo and Sturt”. I suppose there will be some interest in seeing what the Greens officials and candidates say on their HTVs. I won’t be at all surprised if they issue “open tickets” which you will take as evidence of some sort of dastardly deal – but of course it’s the most sensible and democratic thing any party can do – leave it to voters to (shock, horror) make up their own minds.
But whatever is on the HTVs, what you never seem to get is that Green voters are not the same people as Green party members and officials – and unlike the Labor Right, they are not (further shock and horror!) a disciplined force. When the Greens do issue HTVs showing preferences, a lot of voters disregard them – Messrs Bowe and Green have the stats somewhere. As I see it, they come in two main flavours – those who think Labor has drifted so far to the centre that on some issues it has drifted into the right’s space and should be pulled back, and those who would fit happily into Liberals for Forests. The latter think the Libs are far too unconcerned about the environment but otherwise share the traditional “Liberal” fear of those nasty Union leaders, and general unconcern for the rights of workers (listen to Pete Sellars at 2:20 here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uw15MsGlxuc ). So the first group instinctively give prefs to Labor and the second to the Coal-party, regardless of what an HTV might or might not tell them. And there are 2-3 times as many of the first group as the second group (again, the psephos’ site have details).
So – as Martin B (and someone else) has pointed out, if NXT are coming second, they’ll probably win on Labor prefs and if Labor are second, NXT prefs will probably split and give the victory to the Conservaturds. So a Green voter whose main aim is to get rid of Briggs or Pyne should prefer NXT ahead of Labor – devious but strategic. And put the Liberals last.
Keep up the good work on the streets and phone banks Briefly, but do get a bit less distracted by the Greens – their main “colour” is indeed green and after that some (most) are red and some (fewer) are blue and there’s nothing you or I or even their party leaders can do about it. And keep remembering the real enemy is the so-called “Liberal” Party and Mr Harbourside Mansion.
Evan Parsons
[ I guess people here want the ABC to be 100% pro Shorten all the time, but that’s not the role of a national broadcaster, to be partisan towards either side of politics. ]
Nobody expects the ABC to be pro-ALP. But just being a little less blatantly biased toward the LNP would be nice.
Maldemort lying again …
[ “Can I tell you, on the reef, just to be deadly serious about it. It was on the ‘watch list’ under Labor, it is now off the ‘watch list’. It’s not enda– it’s not regarded as endangered,” the Prime Minister said, referring to the government’s $400,000 lobbying effort to keep the world heritage site off the list. ]
How does he get away with this?
Jack A Randa
Good post!
Fran Kelly always has that vacant look, as if she has trouble digesting facts that are not part of her programming.
Great post jack
Yes the greens will issue open tickets in SA I assume. To do anything else would open too many battles. if they suport NXT then we will see Labor screaming about the nasty Greens, but if they support Labor thaey will probably cause Liberals to win, which will still have them being hated by Labor on the grounds that they helped the Liberals. Open ticket is much safer.
Although in SA a NXT/Green deal would make a bit of sense strategically provided the Greens get senate preferences.
Trog
[ Fran Kelly always has that vacant look, as if she has trouble digesting facts that are not part of her programming. ]
I’m a fairly regular RN listener, but I gave up on Fran Kelly a few elections ago. How she keeps he job is a mystery to me (actually, no it isn’t).
trog sorrenson @ #167 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 12:41 pm
Your radio reception must be awesome.
“When the Greens do issue HTVs showing preferences, a lot of voters disregard them – Messrs Bowe and Green have the stats somewhere.”
Actually most voters from all parties don’t follow HTVs religiously: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/09/do-australians-follow-how-to-votes.html
Bowe and Green assess the difference between Greens showing preferences, and issuing open tickets to be worth 2.5% and 3% of the Greens vote respectively.
X currently making all the same excuses Feeney did – it will be interesting to see how the media treats him.
Adrian
So you have direct experience with the goodness of the NSW Teachers Federation and/or teaching, and are now a lawyer.
Possible but rare.
My brief is an ex schoolie.
A primary vote of 18 to 20% in SA probably isn’t a great look for Labor. X looks like being the second party in SA.
It’s great being a liberal campaign manager. You just click your fingers and half the press in this country attacks some poor bastard and savages him to death – and I don’t even like X.
DTT
I’m not sure that you were saying that SRA program was an example of Direct Instruction, or just reminiscing.
If you were, nothing could be further from the truth.
Autocrat
Yes, and I can also register certain frequencies through my skin. You need to just open your soul to the universe.
Or watch Fran on Insiders.
“So you have direct experience with the goodness of the NSW Teachers Federation and/or teaching, and are now a lawyer.
Possible but rare.
My brief is an ex schoolie.”
Well you need to be broaden your horizons. And you might note that I said that the Federation was the collective voice of its membership back in the day. Goodness doesn’t come into it.
Nowadays its lost most of its authority, and from what I hear a lot of younger teachers don’t bother joining.
And I could be an electrician….
I’m not. After that demoralising Essential poll I am waiting with some trepidation for the next lot. If they show any kind of a swing back towards the Liberals at this stage that could make things very difficult.
Good one Trog!
I have had very little contact with Fran, but she does strike me as a very dopey gal. Looks like she’s ripe for deprogramming.
Adrian
My experience was that the union had very little authority to begin with. It was certainly far, far weaker than the Victorian branch.
Thanks. This is what I am thinking. Where the TPP has a potential of being Lib vs NXT, Green and Labor preferences going straight to NXT will have a better effect of unseating a Lib. If at any point Green or Labor end up above NXT, the NXT preferences are just as likely to go to Lib than to Green or Labor.
Was a ‘schoolie’ for over 20 years BTW. At the time of Mettherill, I remember him visiting the country town (city?) where I worked, and his incompetence managed to mobilise a large section of the otherwise conservative teaching workforce to demonstrate against his visit.
Also remember Federation hiring trains for country teachers to attend demos in Sydney.
It takes a special kind of incompetence to mobilise largely conservative employees to give up a day’s pay to attend a demonstration, but Metherill managed it.
I shall be disgusted if either the ALP or the Greens preference the Libs ahead of NXT.
Abbott provides some helpful advice to Turnbull, Kroger & co regarding LNP/Greens deals:
[Tony Abbott has described himself as a team player and recommended the Coalition not preference the Greens, claiming they would destroy the economy and Australia’s national security.
Abbott made the comments in a wide-ranging interview with the Conversation’s chief political correspondent, Michelle Grattan, published on Friday.
Abbott also said same-sex marriage was “unthinkable” until recently but he would respect the outcome of a plebiscite on the issue.
Asked whether the Liberals should preference the Greens in battles with Labor in Melbourne seats Batman and Wills, Abbott said it was a matter for the party organisation.
But he said “as a general rule I think that more responsible parties should be preferenced ahead of less-responsible parties and for all the Labor party’s faults it is, in the end, the alternative government and heaven help us if the Greens were ever the alternative government”.
“So, you can probably draw a conclusion from that if you want,” he told Grattan.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/03/team-player-tony-abbott-says-coalition-should-not-preference-greens
Sorry, my previous comment at #184 is a respond to Martin B’s comment at 33.
Everywhere, PUT LIBERAL LAST.
‘Adrian
My experience was that the union had very little authority to begin with. It was certainly far, far weaker than the Victorian branch.’
Yes, that’s largely right. It was never the hotbed of radicalism or obstruction that some conservative commentators have claimed. Nowadays it’s largely rolled over…
Trog, you must be Billy from the Valleys – one of my favourite people! See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIBCPAWUEKM The more I play it the more it becomes my favourite Roger Waters or Pink Floyd album.
Trog
There is a tiny, tiny piece of Mal’s brain that remembers that he should try to tell the truth, then he remembers the Monkeypods and Greg Hunt, and loses it altogether. The stress of this double life will kill him if he’s not careful.
“How does he get away with this?”
I take it that’s a rhetorical question P1?
What a great speech by Hillary Clinton.
Once again showing that she is heads and shoulders above Sanders and particularly Trump.
That speech shows why she will destroy the incoherent and crazy Trump in the presidential election.
Jack A Randa
Cool.
Evan Parsons; Their job is to be non-partisan, and they have changed since Malcom Turnbull had words with them.
So was the ABC non-partisan before or after the political interference ?
Lizzie
TT
[I shall be disgusted if either the ALP or the Greens preference the Libs ahead of NXT.]
I can’t see Labor doing it; that would make it more likely that the Libs form a majority government. Labor is running dead in Sturt and are clearly hoping X will knock off Pyne.
Jack A Randa
#163 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 12:35 pm
Jack A…
The G’s have a decision to make. NXT are their chief rivals for power. For the G’s, life would be easier if NXT were not a political force. But NXT also rival and may displace the Liberals in some seats in SA. If the G’s really want to defeat the Liberals, they will favour NXT. If they put their sectional interest first, the G’s will favour the Liberals. So it will be interesting to see what choice they make.
As for your characterisations of Labor as some Rightist conspiracy……you are completely mistaken. Completely, totally, profoundly, abjectly mistaken. It is simply the case that most of us in Labor are sick to death of the G’s. This does not mean we are of the “Right” any more than it means the G’s may claim to be of the “Left”.
Don’t agree, Psyclaw at https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/06/03/private-polling-round-bass-sturt-mayo-cowan/comment-page-4/#comment-2408504 The SRA “Reading Mastery” stuff and other ‘Direct Learning” program stuff is certainly more highly elaborated than the old SRA language lab was, but it follows essentially the same principles. A US pre-packaged, highly scripted, but individually “rated” approach using behavioural methodology in both cases !