Private polling round-up: Bass, Sturt, Mayo, Cowan

Privately conducted ReachTEL polls point to cliffhanger results in a number of key seats, as Liberal members struggle to fend off Labor in Western Australia and Tasmania and the Nick Xenophon Team in South Australia.

There should a lot of entertainment in store for poll watchers in the form of national polling over the coming days, and we’ve had a few appetisers over the night with scattered reports of privately commissioned electorate-level polling conducted by ReachTEL. Due caution must be allowed for the fact that some of the polls were conducted several weeks ago, and all were commissioned by left-of-centre concerns who might feel more inclined to publicise their poll results when they like what they show. With that in mind:

• The freshest of the batch is a poll crediting Labor with a 51-49 lead in the northern Tasmanian seat of Bass. This suggests a 5% swing against Liberal member Andrew Nikolic, who gained it with a 10.8% swing in 2013. The poll was conducted on Tuesday for GetUp! from a sample of 824.

• The Advertiser reports troubling numbers for the Liberals from South Australia in further polling conducted for GetUp! Christopher Pyne is credited with 41% of the primary vote in his seat of Sturt, compared with 21% for Nick Xenophon Team candidate Matthew Wright and 20% for Labor’s Matt Loader and 8% for the Greens. In Mayo, Liberal member Jamie Briggs is at 40%, against 23.5% for Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, 18% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. Either seat would be under threat from NXT on those numbers, provided their candidates were able to get ahead of Labor. The scale of the threat would also depend on whether the remainders include an undecided component, as is usually the case in ReachTEL’s electorate polling. If so, distributing the undecided would push the Liberal primary vote up high enough that they would most likely make it over the line, although only just. The Sturt poll was conducted on May 22 from a sample of 762, and the Mayo poll was on May 16 from a sample of 681.

• The West Australian reports a poll of the Perth seat of Cowan credited Labor’s Anne Aly with a 51-49 lead over Liberal member Luke Simkins, whose 7.5% margin has been pared back to 4.0% in the redistribution. The implied swing of 5% is actually at the low end of the Labor’s recent form in polling from Western Australia. However, this poll is showing its age a little, having been conducted on May 10 for the United Voice union from a sample of 731. The West’s report also relates that the Liberals’ internal pollsters, Crosby-Textor, have recorded a 6% swing to Labor in the new seat of Burt, which has a notional Liberal margin of 4.9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

465 comments on “Private polling round-up: Bass, Sturt, Mayo, Cowan”

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  2. D & M

    [ On the other hand, they are having a lot of pressure put on them to retire, even though they cannot afford it. So, commonly, they will go onto a transition to retirement plan, lasting say three years. The university may put more into their super, so that by the end of the three years they can afford to retire, pay off their mortgage, and not need to draw the old age pension. Once you sign that contract, there is no going back. So, these people will be significantly worse off. ]

    I agree with what you wrote, but what makes you think this problem is restricted to universities? It can affect almost any workplace, including the self-employed who often find their income decreasing significantly as they approach retirement. In addition, anyone on a wage who is nearing retirement and gets decent financial advice will initiate a TRIS simply because of the tax benefits (but of course a lot of people may not realize this).

    So these changes will potentially affect many more than just a “small percentage”. It is just that most people who will eventually be affected don’t understand the significance of the changes yet. And most of them are not “rich” – they are middle income earners with modest superannuation balances.

    I agree the government could reduce the impact by “grandfathering” these changes – but they have ruled that out (I think they simply don’t want to admit they made such a howling error in the first place!). But in any case, the bigger impact will be on people who are still a few years away from even thinking about their retirement.

    When they realize what they missed out on, they will roundly curse this government!

  4. Blast! CCCP is broken again. I wish the gerbils would stop messing about with Crikey. They are not improving anything (I still can’t log in properly) – they are just making life more difficult for everyone.

  7. Imagine how many old video statements that Labor could find in the Parliament by the Fibs.Just the lies on the carbon tax alone would be never ending.

  9. Sportsbet now has Labor favourite in Page(Labor 1.63, Coalition 2.20) – it’d be nice to have Janelle Saffin back in parliament.

  11. “Imagine how many old video statements that Labor could find in the Parliament by the Fibs.”

    AM had an old interview or speech by Shorten supporting a company tax cut, but Tony Bourke destroyed the attempt at a gotcha with ease.
    The more the electorate hears of both Labor economic spokesman the better, as Bowen and Bourke complement each other perfectly.

    Feeling slightly more confident about the forthcoming polls…

  12. How about the trio of Pyne, Briggs and the rather odious MP for Bass all losing on July 2?
    Sweet, from a partisan point of view

  13. NBN – Labor hopefully has a big policy announcement coming. Sounds like it’d work a treat in Tassie and regional Australia as a whole

  16. Barnaby Joyce doing so well at this kids debate
    lanesainty: Joyce: As a father of four daughters & surrounded by women in my office, I am very concerned with gender equity #kidsdebate

  17. lanesainty: Joyce jokes that gender equity goes the other way.
    Mod: How’s that?
    Joyce: I lose every debate in my house 5-1
    #kidsdebate

  19. P1@102
    [I agree with what you wrote, but what makes you think this problem is restricted to universities? It can affect almost any workplace, including the self-employed who often find their income decreasing significantly as they approach retirement. In addition, anyone on a wage who is nearing retirement and gets decent financial advice will initiate a TRIS simply because of the tax benefits (but of course a lot of people may not realize this).

    So these changes will potentially affect many more than just a “small percentage”. It is just that most people who will eventually be affected don’t understand the significance of the changes yet. And most of them are not “rich” – they are middle income earners with modest superannuation balances. ]

    Thanks for this input. I thought other would be affected, but was not sure. If you were self employed and had reached your preservation age, then it would make a lot of sense to try and spend 5 years building up your super balance. Especially if you were a concreter or similar, when you would find it hard to work full time into you 70s. Although, some people can do it, I suspect that worn out knee joints etc. may make it hard for many.

    So, it is not that the Libs only thought Labor voters would be affected. They just stuffed-up, and do not want to be seen to back down, feeding the incompetence meme.

  22. Mayhem in Stirling this morning.
    The scrum is in town for a little while it seems. And there are some unhappy local business owners who dont like their customers getting pushed and shoved as the scrum winds its way around.
    Some happy shoppers in Woolies tho – getting some happy happy snaps of the lovely couple.
    https://www.instagram.com/p/BGLHWZ-y5a5/

  28. Looks like Jai’me and Fizza went to Stirling where the hoi poloi are a little more upmarket and predictable.

  29. “Got to say it again. Brilliant presser from Mr Shorten.

    Ramping up the attack on economic credibility”

    Must be all part of the cunning two election strategy revealed by the brilliant Mark Kenny, Guytaur.

  30. Ah, Nick X, slum landlord. Who woulda thunk it. A lib through and through (who sucked the punters in with a ‘no pokies’ scam)

  32. History is repeating itself for Malcolm Turnbull and it is not a pleasant return journey for the Liberal leader.
    Mr Turnbull’s personal rating with voters as Prime Minister is declining at a pace matching his popularity collapse as Opposition Leader, an analysis by Newspoll pollster David Briggs shows.
    And graphs plotting the two Turnbull manifestations have come together at the same low point with 11 per cent more voters questioning his performance than praising it.
    The marking down of Mr Turnbull as Prime Minister is likely to be more about disappointment than hostility towards him, and there could be a reservoir of faith in the electorate that he will come good.
    The two terms of Turnbull: in red (opposition leader in 2009) and now as PM (blue). Image: Supplied
    The two terms of Turnbull: in red (opposition leader in 2009) and now as PM (blue). Image: SuppliedSource:Supplied
    Pollsters see a difference between Mr Turnbull’s problems and the animosity towards former Premier Campbell Newman at the Queensland election, and the anticipated rejection of former Prime Minister Tony Abbott had he taken the Liberals into this Federal Election.
    One interpretation of the decline it is a reaction to the “wishy-washy” tax debate earlier this year when a number of options were raised and shot down, leaving voters wondering whether Mr Turnbull operated on conviction.
    He is hoping to counter that during the election campaign by presenting “the plan” for a strengthened economy, hoping voters will see it as a sign of strong leadership.
    But the low approval figures would be a considerable concern for him and his election campaign planners.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/approval-decline-of-turnbull-mark-1-and-turnbull-mark-2-in-synch/news-story/47a7cadbe08c95463d5720419d296a14

  33. Interesting article in SMH mentioned in previous thread:

    “Labor is furious with the ABC over its Vote Compass website, arguing it misrepresents the ALP’s position on election-deciding policies including penalty rates and boat turn-backs.
    New ABC boss Michelle Guthrie has been sent a blistering letter by Labor national secretary George Wright demanding the website stop using party logos, return data provided and publish a prominent statement noting the ALP “does not believe it is an accurate representation of our party’s positions”.

  34. thought Fran and Michelle might be a smidgen critical of Morrison but no, it was a masterstroke evidently. Why? cos it exposed Labor’s lack of a pathway to growth! WTF – no mention that Malc’s so called plan only delivers a miniscule improvement at a massive cost. Ladies and Gentlemen the fix is in.

  37. Turnbulls father in law labelled Tony Abbott a lunatic. That didnt take much of a deduction. As Keating said a few years ago “the resident nutter on their side”.

  38. Trog
    He apparently went to Hahndorf first to see some schoolkids. Then to Stirling.
    A safe town for him to be but there were some obvious planting of friendlies. Many happy to shake his hand.
    The nearby Crafers booth often runs 50-50 2PP so its not completely a blue ribbon area.

  40. Adrian, the ABC is infested with G’s and Libs – operators who go out of their way to mimic G & Lib opinion and present it is as authentic news…hopeless….I’ve long since ceased relying on them.

  41. Briefly
    Not in this part of Mayo. But I would be interested in BK’s reply for how Sharkie is campaigning out in the sticks.
    😉

  42. Briefly
    Sharkie has a lot of corflutes around and she did start early with meet and greet BBQs in many towns throughout Mayo. I’ll be catching up with her ex F-i-L this evening.

  45. SK…if T is to win he has to campaign among the Labor-friendly too. These voters have been leaving the Libs in large numbers. The Libs cannot win simply by holding their core support – the 33-5-7% who make up the base. They ned to lift their PV above 42-43%. They need Neutral and Labor-minded voters to do that. Their problem is they have nothing to offer these voters. They have only negative messaging – messaging that simply shuts down voter attention.

    They have also basically run out of time. They cannot re-invent themselves in a few days during an election campaign.

  47. Briefly
    “Adrian, the ABC is infested with G’s and Libs – operators who go out of their way to mimic G & Lib opinion and present it is as authentic news…hopeless….I’ve long since ceased relying on them.”
    What rubbish ! You are making a fool of yourself!

  49. Thanks BK and SK…corflutes help….what really makes a difference is person-to-person campaigning. Their chances will depend on just how much of this they can do and how good it is….will obviously be close…:)

  50. It is a ‘no brainer’for teachers to enter into transition to retirement as soon as the mortgage is paid off and the kids are gone. Many of them vote liberal as they see themselves as middle class aspirational achievers. It wouldn’t take much more than an attack on their super to have them come back to where they belong and vote Labor. My strong feeling is that the government is wrong on their numbers and many soft Liberal voters may be motivated to swing on this issue.

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