Essential Research and Roy Morgan have both reported over the past few days, in accordance with their usual weekly and fortnightly schedules, giving BludgerTrack a completed weekly cycle’s worth of polling results to play with. The results indicate no real change on last week, with the recent ReachTEL, Essential and Morgan results exciting the aggregate neither collectively or individually. ReachTEL and Essential in particular recorded less week-on-week movement than their headline figures might suggest. The seat projection has ticked a point in favour of Labor, the gain coming off Tasmania in response to a fairly radical result in the Morgan breakdown this week. The only new data on leadership ratings since last week is from Essential Research, and it’s strengthened the impression that Malcolm Turnbull’s polling plunge has levelled off at a net value of zero, while slightly blunting Bill Shorten’s recent trend upswing.
Polls:
• Today’s Essential Research records an unusual two-point shift to the Coalition on the fortnightly rolling aggregate, reversing its 51-49 deficit from recent polling. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 41%, Labor is down two to 35%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is up one to 4%. A monthly reading of leadership ratings finds Malcolm Turnbull up one on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten respectively steady on 34% and up one to 44%, and Turnbull leading 40-27 as preferred prime minister, down from 43-28. The poll finds a reasonable level of awareness about politics and the election, at least from their own sample, in that 77% corrected identified it as being held in July, 50% knew it would be for all seats in both houses, and 64% were able to identify Scott Morrison as Treasurer. This week’s component of the online survey involved 1007 respondents, polled from Thursday to Sunday.
• The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has the Coalition up a point to 37.5%, Labor down half to 32.5%, the Greens down 2.5% to 13% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 5%, and otherwise remains remarkable for the size of the non-major party vote. The headline respondent-allocated two-party measure has Labor leading 51-49, down from 52.5 last time, but the shift on previous election preferences is more modest, from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5. The poll release also informs us that the Nick Xenophon Team was recorded at 26.5% in South Australia, ahead of Labor on 25%, with the Liberals on 31%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3099.
• Roy Morgan has a poll, sort of, from the Victorian seat of Indi, which Sophie Mirabella seeks to recover for the Liberals following her defeat by independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. However, the result is compiled from the entirety of its face-to-face surveying in the electorate since the 2013 election, and the voting intention result relates only to the generic question on party-based voting intention, so its finding that the Coalition has a 51-49 lead over “independent” is unlikely to mean very much. In recognition of this, the Morgan release mostly focuses on most important issue results.
Preselections:
• Labor has preselected Malarndirri McCarthy, member for Arnhem in the Northern Territory department from 2005 until her unexpected defeat in 2012, to replace Nova Peris as its Northern Territory Senate candidate. McCarthy prevailed from a field of five indigenous women, including Ursula Raymond, former chief-of-staff to Peris; Denise Bowden, chief executive of the Yothu Yindi Foundation; and Cathryn Tilmouth, a former ministerial adviser. Amos Aikman of The Australian reports McCarthy and Raymond respectively had backing from the Left and the Right. McCarthy has lived in Sydney since 2012, where she has worked for NITV and SBS, and her membership of the party had lapsed.
• The New South Wales Liberal Party has finally resolved the order of its Senate ticket, putting hard Right incumbent Connie Fierravanti-Wells at number four and centre Right newcomer Hollie Hughes to the unlikely prospect of number six, number five being reserved for the Nationals. The top three positions have gone to Marise Payne, Fiona Nash of the Nationals, and Arthur Sinodinos. Retired major-general Jim Molan, who was heavily involved in the government’s efforts against unauthorised boat arrivals, could only manage seventh place. The decision was made at a meeting of the state executive held after objections were raised about an earlier process of “faxed ballot” sent through by email.
Prognostications:
• Troy Bramston of The Australian reports Labor sources saying the party has “all but given up hope” of David Feeney retaining Batman from Alex Bhathal of the Greens, and that Anthony Albanese is under serious pressure in Grayndler. Labor is “almost certain” Tanya Plibsersek will be returned in Sydney, and “quietly confident” about Peter Khalil retaining the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills, which would be threatened if the Liberals directed preferences against Labor. However, it is noted that polling young inner-city voters is difficult, invoking Labor internal polling before the New South Wales state election which wrongly pointed to Labor wins over the Greens in Newtown and Balmain.
• James Massola of Fairfax reports the seats of greatest concern to Coalition strategists are Barton, Dobell, Lindsay, Robertson, Eden-Monaro and Macarthur in New South Wales, Dunkley and La Trobe in Victoria, Petrie and Capricornia in Queensland, Lyons in Tasmania, and Solomon in the Northern Territory. However, they remain hopeful of picking up the Melbourne seats of Bruce and Chisholm, both of which are set to be vacated by sitting Labor members. Labor strategists are said to be keen to add to their list of potential gains Hasluck and Burt in Western Australia, Hindmarsh in South Australia, Banks, Paterson and Page in New South Wales, Braddon in Tasmania, and Bonner in Queensland. Cowan in Western Australia is curiously absent from either list, and it’s unclear if the Liberals weren’t counting Paterson on the basis that it’s a notionally Labor seat after the redistribution, as indeed are Barton and Dobell.
Miscellany:
• The latest campaign car crash victim is Chris Jermyn, the Liberal candidate for the highly marginal Labor-held seat of McEwen on Melbourne’s northern outskirts. Jermyn and some supporters gatecrashed Bill Shorten’s visit to a health centre in Sunbury, but Jermyn evidently hadn’t reckoned on being asked basic questions about health policy by a News Corp journalist at the event, which he proved unable to answer. Jermyn refused to answer questions posed to him as he left the event, saying: “This is why I hate journalists.” The seat is held for Labor by Rob Mitchell on a margin of 0.2%.
• Former Australian Idol host James Mathison is running against Tony Abbott in Warringah. Mathison’s pitch seems to be that Abbott’s deep conservatism leaves younger social liberals in the electorate with no one to vote for.
Nicholas
Thanks for the links – so far I like the concept.
But still wonder if this wouldn’t cop criticism (like the work for the dole) that some of the work may be busywork or could encroach on private sector work or be abused.
I see that is partly addressed in the docs but still I think safeguards don’t always totally eliminate things going awry?
Overall I am up for that concept but even still would like the private sector to be unlocked a little bit more via wage subsidies (direct to employees or employers), supplemented by policies that address cost of living factors. More private sector employment as well as more government sector employment is a win-win in my eyes.
There will be no such thing as low paid jobs. They will be done by robots.
Society will have to pay everyone a basic amount, even if they choose to do nothing.
Robots and other technologies, such as recombinant medical, genetic, materials etc combined with very low cost energy will push productivity through the roof and make this feasible.
That is if we don’t blow up the global ecosystem first. Still, I suppose if that happens, there will always be a few survivors left to inherit all the goodies.
matt31 @ #1095 Thursday, June 2, 2016 at 8:53 pm
Maybe a tracking poll exercise
trog sorrenson @ #1106 Thursday, June 2, 2016 at 9:23 pm
Weird.
The IPA comparing Turnbull to Sanders at this stage of the respective Australian and US election processes brings a clear insinuation of internal party division
What do you call a rabbit with a bent dick?
Fucks Funny.
Phonebanking this afternoon and evening…many calls to the good people of Cowan. As usual, calls reached a scattering of Libs, the incoherent and the numb. But far more numerous were the responses of working people feeling the effects of years of nil income growth and increased charges for utilities and health insurance; people living with the anxiety of reductions in penalty rates, working hours and job security; and recurring hostility to the WA Government. This latter sentiment is very readily conflated by voters with resentment of the Federal Liberals, suggesting that many voters will express their anger with Barnett by voting Labor on 2 July. These voters were invariably pleased to hear from WA Labor…invariably happy to think we may win a seat from the Liberals!!
The volunteer effort is really starting to pick up as well, with plenty of experienced volunteers and lots of new recruits on hand too. All in all, we will be able to say that if we fall short in WA, it will not be for the want of effort.
…oh…almost forgot….the nastiest comment heard from a voter came from a stray Lib, who denounced “all-you-green-lefties” in no uncertain terms and then went on to praise Christian Porter as a great servant of the people…
All in all…several hours very well spent…
Trog
You mention the ecosystem.
Renewable energy, computers robotics – they all rest on finite available resources, that get ever more energy intensive to reach (peak oil, peak lithium, peak etc).
Whether there is enough resources to supply enough energy and enough robots etc to provide enough for all I think is not settled.
In fact, I have seen seasoned researchers and scientists conclude that technological advances are not, and will not be sufficient to produce quality for all. That overall as dense and readily available resources have already been consumed we have already reached our peak resource and energy throughput and it will reduce year on year from here reducing our overall capacity faster than technology increases it. Technology after all still being beholden to the laws of thermodynamics and physics.
Workers paradises have been predicted after many technological advancements and never came to be. I don’t think robotics will prove any different.
LGH
Some good points. I think energy is the key, but realise that renewables also take energy to manufacture. We need to decouple energy and resource consumption from growth. This may sound impossible, but think of digital products. They can be endlessly duplicated at almost zero cost.
Have to go – goodnight
ah stupidcun…er cupidstunt.
Just wanted to say that.
Ironic that people in marginals are being bombarded by pollsters but those of us actually interested in polling are on a drip feed. 18 hours 23 minutes to the Reachtel. Not that I am counting or anything…
boerwar @ #1057 Thursday, June 2, 2016 at 7:52 pm
another superb effort
New Reachtel polls show Pyne and Briggs under serious threat in Sturt and Mayo respectively.
Primaries:
Mayo: Briggs just under 40, NXT on 23.5, ALP 18, Greens 10
Sturt: Pyne 41, NXT on 21, ALP 20, Greens 8
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/new-polls-show-jamie-briggs-and-christopher-pyne-in-real-battle-to-hold-their-seats-from-xenophon-challengers/news-story/8d063cc0456f3b8f1415cb9f5ae13f99
Last week Ghostwhovotes posted reachtel to twitter at 1:06AM on Friday morning.
Not that im counting either.
Pyne would be a good scalp to get
I see Labor back out to $3.55 on Sportsbet. Meh! Big mover has been Page into $1.65 favourite for Labor now. I think the Newspoll city/regions breakdown would be the influence there. A few more people putting pressure on the NXT odds in Mayo. Has Briggs been seen in public anywhere in recent times?
kevin-one-seven @ #1085 Thursday, June 2, 2016 at 8:35 pm
Seriously, that would be a bad look. Shorten would look like he was politicizing the issue.
sykesie @ #1164 Thursday, June 2, 2016 at 11:41 pm
Will the G’s favour NXT or Labor in Mayo and Sturt? In other words, will they set out to topple the Libs even if this means helping their rivals for the B-o-P, NXT?
Will the G’s help defeat the Libs?
Will one of the Professional G’s that post here enlighten us?
norwester @ #1167 Thursday, June 2, 2016 at 11:45 pm
In how many seats is LAbor the favourite @ sportsbet?
FWIW, I don’t have a home phone (two mobiles) but I have never even once been polled, ever.
I would say Mayo and Sturt are close to the edge of oblivion if those numbers are repeated on polling day. Less than 40 primary would be death I reckon. 85% Preference flow from greens and labor wouldn’t be a surprise. On the numbers given, my back of the envelope calculation suggests Briggs would be gone and Pyne lineball.
sykesie @ #1164 Thursday, June 2, 2016 at 11:41 pm
On those numbers the Greens and others’ prefs will decide those seats. Only one poll for each seat so far. I prefer to see 3 polls for a specific seat all saying more or less the same thing before I have that much confidence in them, but the incumbent primaries in Sturt and Mayo are well into the danger range for Pyne and Briggs. Excellent.
Pyne in particular is a big fish in the Libs world so expect to see some more public polling there in a week or two. Cut the air with a knife chez Pyne tonight LOL.
briefly @ #1169 Thursday, June 2, 2016 at 11:50 pm
Will the G’s favour NXT or Labor in Mayo and Sturt? In other words, will they set out to topple the Libs even if this means helping their rivals for the B-o-P, NXT?
Will the G’s help defeat the Libs?
Will one of the Professional G’s that post here enlighten us?
Well that’s the rub, isn’t it. Are they going to skip to the right of the ALP, and support more right-leaning candidates over the ALP. The answer to that question surely shows their true colours.
There’s the question for the greens that should be front an centre to every one from now on. Are the Greens going to preference NXT over the ALP? That will truly show which side they’re on.
More NXT preference will leak to LNP than from any other party, so in terms of defeating LNP the best scenario is if it comes down to NXT vs LNP
briefly @ #1170 Thursday, June 2, 2016 at 11:52 pm
I make it 66 with 3 equal. There are quite a lot of seats with Labor between $2 and $2.50. It looks like the broad view in the market is that some of those seats could fall, but not enough info to know which ones. The market appears likely to react to specific seat polling pretty quickly and if that theory is correct then the odds for NXT will tighten in Sturt and Mayo in the next day or so.
bug1 @ #1176 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 12:13 am
Agreed. On those numbers NXT is the only party that can take out Briggs and Pyne. Ironic that if Greens pref to Labor there it appears more likely to save those two than to defeat them. If I were in one of those seats I’d be awfully tempted to vote strategically. There looks to be a real chance for these two to be turfed out of parliament.
celebrating my 60th today. damn, where did that time go?
“Labor is leading the two-party preferred race in Liberal MP Andrew Nikolic’s northern Tasmanian seat, according to a new ReachTel poll.
The survey of 824 residents across the electorate of Bass, conducted on Tuesday, found Mr Nikolic received top billing with 44.1 per cent of first preference votes.
But on a two-party preferred basis Labor candidate Ross Hart tipped the scales with a narrow margin: 51 per cent to 49 per cent.”
http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/06/03/00/10/narrow-margins-for-nikolic-in-bass-poll
Guessing not much solace for Libs in Boothby right now based on those other SA polls. New England must also be pretty close. Turnbull clinging to the barest seat margin now. Pressure mounting.
PTMD: i hope it didnt all go hitting refresh waiting for a poll
puff, the magic dragon. @ #1179 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 12:45 am
Happy birthday Puff
bug1 @ #1180 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 12:46 am
More good news…
Thanks Bug1
Puff, The Magic Dragon.
Celebrating my 60th today. damn, where did that time go?
I know the feeling !
I made a note on a messy spreadsheet i have that Bass was polled earlier and alp was 49%, so its a good sign.
Interesting regarding Mayo and Sturt.
TBH, I’d also like to see what the situation is like in Port Adelaide as well. Also, I’d really like to know if there is any traction for NXT in Barker (something about that seat’s 2013 numbers makes me interested in it and its NXT potential.
Hmm. That’s now two polls that have shown a swing in Bass. This one a bit more than the first. Could be game on there after all. No wonder Turnbull looks stressed and Morrison carrying on more and more like a pork chop. They really are in strife.
If libs are going to have to start sandbagging frontbencher seats thats going to suck a bit out of their campaign.
bug1 @ #1186 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 12:59 am
Likewise. That’s two now with 3 and 5% swings. Looks like it is in play.
Bug1, What did you make of the Newspoll 5 capitals vs the rest differential?
I put a lot of it down to the ALP being on the nose last time, with Cattle farms, and the Carbon tax was huge issue for farmers as well. A lot of that anger has subsided.
This time dairy farms are suffering, Katter was firing them up a few weeks ago at a Melbopurne rally mentioning they “keep voting for the same people and expecting a different result” there might be some resentment about missing out on so many FTA, but they did get mentioned with the china FTA.
So ALP is going better because previous anger against them has dissipated and new anger at LNP
And even though farmers are a minority politically, their wellbeing has a big psychological effect on the cities they surround, so farmers concerns do weight on people who live in smaller cities.
Bug1, Yep I reckon it is also tradies and micro businesses in the regions that are feeling the pinch. This government despite its platitudes has been a disaster for many rural economies.
The key question for both Mayo and Sturt will be the extent to which Green preferences push Labor past NXT, if at all. Labor cannot win either of those seats, but if NXT can stay ahead of them for second, Labor preferences will almost certainly secure a NXT win.
The Green how to vote, and the Green voters adherence to them, is going to be very, very interesting.
If those polls are right, of course.
teh_drewski @ #1195 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 1:35 am
Exactly.
Will the G’s help to unseat Liberals if this assists NXT? NXT are G-rivals for the B-o-P. Will the G’s help NXT? Or will they help the Liberals?
They could most help Labor by helping to defeat the Liberals. Will they do it?
Happy Birthday Puff 🙂
norwester @ #1184 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 12:52 am
Nicolic received 47.85% of the PV in 2013. The 2PP was 54.05 in the Liberal’s favour, being a 10.78% swing from 2010, according to the AEC.
If a 5% swing is on in Tasmania, Labor may gain the three Lib-held seats, Lyons, Braddon and Bass. If this occurs, the Libs could expect to lose…
Tas = 3 to Labor (Bass, Braddon, Lyons)
SA = 3 to NXT (Mayo, Surt, Boothby)
SA = 1 to Labor (Hindmarsh)
WA = 4 to Labor (Burt, Hasluck, Cowan, Swan)
NT = 1 to Labor (Solomon)
If Labor win their notionally-held seats in NSW as well, then the LNP will have lost their majority even without the loss of further seats in Victoria, QLD and NSW. It’s no wonder the LNP have gone to pieces.
I have no direct experience of sentiment in other States, but such an outcome would match the wishes of the voters of WA, who very clearly hope to change the Government.
happy birhday Puff from Greece, you are just entering your prime of life.
There are 5 seats in NSW and QLD that would change hands on a swing of 3% or less. These seats are Page, Robertson, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro and Banks (NSW); and Capricornia and Petrie (QLD). If Windsor also wins in New England and the G’s win Batman, and the results in the above post also hold, the House will be comprised of:
LNP = 71
Labor = 70
G =2
NXT = 3
Katter = 1
McG = 1
Wilkie = 1
Windsor = 1
If Labor could win any 6 of the 9 next-most marginal seats, all susceptible to change on further swings of 1% or less, it will govern with a majority: Stirling, Deakin, Reid, Macarthur, Pearce, Gilmore, Bonner, Corangamite, LaTrobe.
Four weeks out, it’s looking like the Liberals will certainly lose their majority and that a change to a majority Labor Government is at the very least a viable possibility.