Galaxy: 54-46 to federal Coalition in Queensland

After a week spent splashing cash at marginal seats in South Australia and Tasmania, new polls arrive from Queensland and western Sydney to steady the Coalition’s nerves.

The Courier-Mail today brings the Coalition one of its most encouraging poll results in a while, crediting them with leads on federal voting intention in Queensland of 54-46 on two-party preferred, and 46% to 33% on the primary vote. This compares with 57.0-43.0 at the 2013 election, and primary votes of Coalition 45.7% and Labor 29.8%. The only seats a uniform swing of 3% would net for Labor would be the Rockhampton region seat of Capricornia (margin 0.8%), which Labor has only lost three times since 1961, and the northern Brisbane seat of Petrie (0.5%). The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday evening from a sample of 1176.

Also from Galaxy, the Daily Telegraph has electorate-level polling showing the Liberals leading 54-46 in Lindsay and by unspecified amounts in Gilmore and Reid, with 50-50 results from Banks and Dobell and a 51-49 lead for Labor in Macarthur, the scene of last night’s leaders forum. More precise figures on that will be available at some point, hopefully soon. The polls were automated phone surveys of around 500 respondents per electorate.

I’m aware at least one other big set of regional polling that will be with us this evening, so stay tuned for that one. Other news:

• The small sample of attendees at last night’s leaders forum came down 42-29 in favour of Bill Shorten over Malcolm Turnbull.

• Family First Senator Bob Day’s constitutional challenge against Senate election reforms got short shrift from the High Court in yesterday’s judgement, which said in reference to the plaintiff’s submission: “None of the above arguments has any merit and each can be dealt with briefly.”

• The government has maintained its recently developed interest in South Australia with a visit to the state yesterday by the Prime Minister, in which he committed to funding half of an $85 million rail project connecting Flinders University to the central business district, with a scheduled completion in late 2018. This helpfully runs through the electorate of Boothby, to be vacated at the election by Liberal member Andrew Southcott.

• Labor and Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie have attacked the federal and Tasmanian state governments over $22 million in grants from the Tasmanian Jobs and Investment Fund that were announced this week. Most of the money had been freed up by the demise of a proposed tourism visitors centre at the Cadbury’s factory in the northern Hobart suburb of Claremont, in Wilkie’s seat of Denison, but the bulk of the new projects were in the three marginal Liberal seats in the state’s north. The Hobart Mercury reports that $6.29 million has gone to Lyons, $5.55 million to Bass and $3.59 million to Braddon, compared with $3.6 million in Denison and $2.91 million in Labor-held Franklin.

• Some anonymous public-spirited individuals have put together an outstanding interactive data visualisation site through which you can explore disclosures of political donations.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

571 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. Turnbull keeps saying that his policies are folly funded, I can believe that about jobs and Growth because it’s all froth and bubble but how is he going to fund the huge tax cuts to the rich and big business, and by the way where is the 60 billion for Subs coming from.

  2. BK
    I expect you are working your magic at this minute, I always start my pollbludger day by reading your posts. I have to go now bu will check in later.

  3. I have just read CTar’s link to the BBC story about ‘Duncan’.
    Perhaps the early morning makes me sentimental, but my eyes filled with tears as I read it. “All he did was ask a question”.

  4. Difficult decisions by ABC producers. If someone is rejected on talk back because they are a boring, long-winded whinger, will they now scream discrimination because they also have an accent like, say, Matthias Cormann.

    Ms Guthrie’s predecessor Mark Scott and said one of his regrets from his 10 years in the job was that the ABC still did not reflect the ethnic diversity of modern Australia and women were under-represented on air.

    In his email, Mr Mason said ABC staff need to ask themselves questions such as: “Do we (however unconsciously) avoid using talent because they have a ‘difficult’ accent?”

  5. Lizzie

    the BBC story about ‘Duncan’.

    Everybody already knows the story but this article is so very well written I thought I’d put it up anyway.

  6. The poll of 1176 Queenslanders was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday night this week after both leaders began their campaigns in the state.

    Tuesday is light years ago. 🙂

  7. Lizzie
    Still here for the moment.
    It’s disgusting that a multi billion Medea organisation takes on a person on limited income simply because he asked a question. The fact that the Minister answering the question made a stupid reply that made Donald Trump look like Eisenstein is what it’s all about

  8. The Pathology labs rents are set by the Govt??? Weird but true.

    So Turnbull and Ley have funded pathology by reducing the rents of private landlords, I wonder what the REI will say?

  9. Murphy, last night. Unfortunately she is still pursuing the theme of ‘lucky Bill’.

    I think Shorten won this evening.

    More detailed thoughts from me shortly, but I’d score tonight to Bill Shorten. In part the Labor leader was lucky because the questions suited him and his campaign agenda – he got more opportunities to hit for the boundary – but he opened the shoulders, that’s the point.

    Malcolm Turnbull was immaculately prepared, and there were no stumbles, but he knew it wasn’t his night. He knew it.

  10. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. A monster collection for today!

    Will Baird’s nuclear option on council mergers have an effect on Turnbull’s electoral chances?
    Lenore Taylor puts it forward that the debate questions and Shorten’s answers gave him the edge.
    Malcolm Maiden writes that there are signs of a problem for Turnbull as reaction to the budget surface.
    Michelle Grattan with good reasoning on what Shorten won the debate.
    Mark Kenny reckons Turnbull’s best option it to hide in plain sight.
    Peter Martin exposes what it costs other taxpayers to support those who negatively gear.
    Just as the BMW brigade set up to campaign against it.
    Labor has already hit back at the real estate industry’s shrill objections.
    “In any ordinary circumstances, Malcolm Turnbull would be out selling last week’s budget. Instead, he’s on the hustings, largely ignoring it” writes Mike Seccombe in an excellent contribution.
    Paula Matthewson says the first week of the campaign went off the rails for Turnbull.

  11. Section 2 . . .

    Urban Wronski – The Coalition suffers a massive setback as the Turnbull show collides with reality.
    David Marr writes in detail about Shorten the man.
    Matthew Knott on The Debate.
    Michael Gordon says Turnbull is using Cameron’s (Crosby’s) “don’t get anyone excited” tactic for this campaign.
    Laurie Oakes says that Turnbull must address the issue of his substantial personal wealth. Google.
    Jacqui Maley with some interesting media analysis on the leaders’ favourability ratings.
    More from Maley who says that paying tax doesn’t make one’s opinion any more important.
    Dennis Shannahan says that Turnbull is steeled for a backlash against the Coalition’s superannuation policy. Google.
    And more for Google as Janet Albrechtsen writes that no amount of waffle can hide the retrospectivity of the super changes.
    Christine Wallace on how the Liberals are tapping The Greens’ power.
    The schools that could swing the federal election.
    George Christensen hasn’t been drinking his LNP trickledown Kool Aid.,8986
    The Panama papers link is not a good look for Turnbull says Nicole Hasham.

  12. Section 3 . . .

    Ross Gittins wonders how the budget really stacks up. Look at his last sentences.
    A thoughtful article from Paul Bongiorno on how Labor is trying to too the Q and A voter.
    A good read from Annabel Crabbe (for a change!)
    Hartcher on why the Greens like bad press.
    How Brazil, a once “darling economy” is crashing and burning.
    Warren Entsch hits out at Credlin.
    Adele Ferguson on 7-Eleven’s PR disaster.
    And lawyers for hundreds of its former employees are concerned that 7-Eleven might come the heavy on these people if their personal information is disclosed.
    Abbott’s Green Army has not been without its problems.
    Ann Summers says that MPs should take note of public opinion and decriminalise abortion.

  13. Lizzie

    Mustn’t make comparisons, must we

    I almost did. I put a sentence in and then decided to lose it just before posting.

  14. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    How we can expect to die has changed dramatically of the last 100 years.
    Will we ever get to see the redacted 28 pages from the 9/11 Commission?
    Religion’s role in the politics of envy.
    Cathy Wilcox and 7-Eleven’s determination to improve its practices.

    Ron Tandberg reckons that voters aren’t going to accept porkies this time.

    Cathy Wilcox with a ripper conflation of enforced council amalgamations and the problems of Thermomix.

    Pat Campbell has got preferences sorted out.

    A good one from Mark Knight. Have a look at the angry face in the crowd.
    Mark David and Turnbull’s “no slogans” tour.

    A lovely weekend laugh from David Rowe as he lines Morrison up.

  15. Wouldn’t it be fitting if there were some reciprocal justice meted out to News Limited journalists – if their most vulnerable aspects and embarrassing moments were compiled in a heavily publicised package?

  16. The latest Galaxy poll, one of many this weekend no doubt, should lower Labor posters expectations on this site that it is all over for Turnbull.
    The swing to Labor in QLD wouldn’t even bring back the once Labor stronghold of Brisbane.
    We all have to be realistic and clear-headed about this election.
    Having said that, I’m off this morning to Shorten’s rally at the Convention centre here in Brisbane. It may also be on ABC 24.

  17. Ordinary people ask questions of the leaders. The msm decides that the questions unfairly favoured one leader over the other. (Note the groupthink happening; in these difficult financial times, why do we have mulitiple journos when clearly only one is needed?)

    What are they claiming here? That the audience was an unrepresentative sample? That somehow it was all rigged?

    I have an alternative explanation – the people in the room talked about the issues people were interested in. If they’re not interested in the issues Turnbull is ‘good’ at, Turnbull is the one with the problem, not the people.

    The only commentators I heard last night who got this were Kristina Kenneally and Peta Credlin.

  18. The latest Galaxy poll, one of many this weekend no doubt, should lower Labor posters expectations on this site that it is all over for Turnbull.


    I agree. It reinforces my view that this is not Labor’s time. The 2019 election is the one that will return a Labor government IMO after the arse has completely fallen out of the Liberals ‘ flawed economic policies and is on display for all to see.

    I am just hoping that Labor can claw back at least ten seats this time around. But even if they don’t a 3.0 to 3.5 swing should open up a lot of LNP seats for harvesting next time when the bigger swing will be on.

  19. Zoomster

    I have an alternative explanation – the people in the room talked about the issues people were interested in. If they’re not interested in the issues Turnbull is ‘good’ at, Turnbull is the one with the problem, not the people.

    You’ve hit the nail on the head.

  20. Good morning all,

    Re the polls this morning,

    I think those who are already are casting Doom over the fate of the upcoming election should just take a deep breath. It is far too early to start crying just as it was far too early for dancing in the streets after several national polls released recently.

    We still have seven weeks to go and a lot will happen along the way. A three per cent swing in Queensland and in Sydney in the early stages of this campaign is a bonus as far as I am concerned.

    This will be a dirty campaign, fought each and very day in the electorates that count and will be a survival of the fittest. Nothing less should be expected.

    We are only at the end of week one, remember that.

    One interesting result to come out of the Queensland poll is on the question of ” which leader has the best plan for Queensland ? ”

    In a galaxy poll last November Turnbull had a 47 point lead over Bill. In this poll today the lead is down to 9 points.

    A long way to go but going into the second week of a campaign with a 3% swing to you is far better than a 3% swing away I would have thought.

    Out of small acorns big trees grow.

    Cheers to you all.

  21. If Kevin Bonham is right that labor has to battle a sophmore effect, then doesn’t a 3.5 per cent swing in 5 NSW marginals indicate labor is knocking on the door. And since that poll, Malcolm has done himself no favours out west. Still a long way to go.

    Re the Qld poll, are 2013 preference flows likely to replicate themselves this time around? Better or worse for labor.?

  22. The libs still have to hide their crap policies for another seven weeks while keeping Malcolm’s popularity aloft. Good luck with that.

  23. There are 7 weeks left, and surely Malcolm can’t campaign as poorly as he did this first week for the remaining 7!

  24. Just another thing before I ride off into the sunset for the day.

    Re the pathology issue.

    Turnbull was full of it last night talking up a ” agreement. ” We should remember how most of the announcements by this government have been more fluff than substance. I think we should wait for the detail and the response to this.

    I would be surprised if the labs are actually going to be jumping with joy.

    Remember the cuts to bulk billing are still there.


  25. That the audience gave the debate to Shorten is not mentioned by the ABC or Murdoch’s Adelaide Advertiser (which put Turnbull ahead on body language, dress, delivery and focus, as rated by ‘body-language expert Michael Kelly and Sydney fashion designer Donny Galella’).
    What a crock!
    There’s a lot more to come and the polls bode ill.

  26. It’s worrying that Queensland may once again lose this election for Labor. They were ruthless on Gillard in 2010, with 8 seats going back to the Liberals. And while Galaxy has not always got it right in the 2007 federal election they suggested Labor would only win a additional four extra seats in Queensland (they won ten), and they predicted the LNP would win the state election in 2009. I tend to believe that Labor is struggling in Queensland federally in the polling.

    Problem about Queensland it really rates the natural party of government state as Labor and the natural party of government federally as Liberal. It’s one of the factors that Campbell Newman completely underestimated when he became drunk with power after his landslide win in 2012.

  27. Thanks for the links BK
    What are they claiming here? That the audience was an unrepresentative sample? That somehow it was all rigged?
    Perhaps the Libs will ask for the next debate to be held at the Athaneum Club, at least there wouldn’t be many questions about child care.

  28. A long way to go but going into the second week of a campaign with a 3% swing to you is far better than a 3% swing away I would have thought.

    Out of small acorns big trees grow.

    If the three points was against the flow or against an otherwise stagnant background (in the Lib favour), I’d probably remain nervous. If Malcolm had shown in his public life a knack for doing well I might well be nervous. Malcolm has shown himself totally inept. There is still room for a shock, it is possible the tide has reached as far as it will go for labor and it is a knife edge result, but I don’t see any reason the trend we have seen over the last 6 months should stop.

  29. Thanks BK for today’s bumper edition. Much appreciated.

    I missed the debate, but caught up with Jon Faine speaking with the editor of the Herald Sun who this week have managed to master trash journalism.

    Worth listening to the exchange. i will link podcast for anyone interested. Faine was not impressed to say the least

  30. Will be interesting to see if the next “debate”..if there is one… scheduled in a more “upmarket” demographic so that the questions may better suit Turnbull. Would be interesting to see how Shorten would handle that. Suspect there would be more of the “you may not like this answer but its the answer you are getting because…..” which would be more aimed at the electorate rather than the immediate audience.

  31. The debate should give us all heart. It shows that Labor is focussing on the right issues, the ones which resonate with ordinary people; that Malcolm isn’t the silver tongue he’s been portrayed as; and that the media – however much they try and spin it for Malcolm – are increasingly recognising that Shorten has what it takes.

  32. TT

    Turnbull ahead on body language, dress, delivery and focus, as rated by ‘body-language expert Michael Kelly and Sydney fashion designer Donny Galella’

    ‘Commanding’ body language, they both wore suits, Turnbull talked down to the audience. Focus? Que?

    Nothing about Bill connecting with the audience, which was illustrated by the leaders’ different actions after the finish.

  33. Those Galaxy results in the NSW marginals look a lot closer than the way they were reported.

    It’s really going to come down to the campaign.

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