Noteworthy developments since my last federal election post 24 hours ago:
• Ahead of the High Court’s ruling on Senator Bob Day’s challenge to the constitutionality of Senate electoral reform, to be delivered at 10am today, Jeremy Gans at the University of Melbourne portends its rejection. Gans notes the court has failed to issue orders in advance of written reasons, as it likely would have done if its ruling was anything the Australian Electoral Commission needed to know about.
• Another, less publicised election-related High Court challenge met an unsuccessful conclusion last night, with the rejection of a bid to keep the electoral roll open beyond its scheduled close of 8pm on Monday. The challenge sought to build on the High Court’s ruling during the 2010 campaign which invalidated Howard-era amendments that closed the roll to new enrolments on the evening the writs were issued, and to updating of addresses three days subsequently.
• A report by Rick Wallace of The Australian talks up Labor’s prospects in the Liberal-held outer Melbourne seat of Dunkley. The seat is being vacated with the retirement of Liberal member Bruce Billson, who narrowly retained it through the Rudd-Gillard years and bequeaths a 5.6% margin to the new Liberal candidate, Chris Crewther. According to Labor sources cited in the report, “one recent sample of a tracking poll in the southeast Melbourne seat had the ALP in front 52-48 per cent after preferences” – though based on what I know of tracking polling, the sample in question would have been about 200. Nonetheless, the Prime Minister is taking the seat seriously enough that he campaigned there yesterday. Notwithstanding Labor’s apparently strong show in this seat, the report also relates that concerns remain about the Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce, where Labor is losing sitting members with the retirements of Anna Burke and Alan Griffin.
• The Australian’s report also says the Nationals are “increasingly optimistic” that their candidate for the seat of Murray, state upper house MP Damian Drum, will win the rural seat of Murray, which is being vacated with the retirement of Liberal member Sharman Stone. However, Labor is said to be dangling a carrot before the Liberals by offering to direct preferences to their candidate ahead of Drum, in exchange for the Liberals dropping their plans to preference the Greens ahead of Labor in the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills.
• Labor has a new candidate for Fremantle following the disendorsement of Maritime Union of Australia organiser Chris Brown, who failed to disclose past convictions on his candidate nomination form. The national executive convened yesterday to replace him with Josh Wilson, deputy mayor of Fremantle and a staffer for the seat’s outgoing member, Melissa Parke. Brown won the initial preselection through the support of the Left unions on the party’s state executive, despite Wilson defeating him by a 155-110 margin in the ballot of the local membership. On Tuesday it emerged that Brown had spent convictions dating from his late teenage years for assaulting a police officer and driving under the influence. Brown claims to have raised the matter with party officials in April, only to be told spent convictions did not have to be disclosed (although the question on the nomination form is whether the prospective candidate has “ever been found guilty of any offence”). He also claimed his contact with the police officer arose accidentally while he was defending himself from an unprovoked attack by three assailants, and said the court had recognised mitigating circumstances when it gave him a good behaviour bond. I had a lot more to say about this in a paywalled article in Crikey today. One of the issues dealt with was the notion that Labor’s troubles might cause the seat to fall to the Greens, despite their modest 11.9% share of the vote in 2013. While the Greens were sufficiently strong in the immediate vicinity of Fremantle to win the state seat at a by-election in 2009, support for the party is a good deal lower on those parts of the federal electorate not covered by the state seat. This is indicated by the map below, which shows federal boundaries in red and state boundaries in blue, with numbers indicating polling booth locations and the Greens primary vote.
• Labor’s national executive has signed off on its Senate preselections today, capping a process that has produced two particularly contentious outcomes: the return of Don Farrell in second position in South Australia, and the sixth placing given to incumbent Lisa Singh in Tasmania. In turn:
New South Wales: 1. Sam Dastyari (Right), factional powerbroker and former general secretary of the state party branch, who filled the casual vacancy created when his predecessor as general secretary, Matt Thistlethwaite, moved to the lower house seat of Kingsford Smith at the 2013 election; 2. Jenny McAllister (Left), former party national president and technical director of a civil engineering firm, who came to the Senate in May last year in place of John Faulkner; 3. Deborah O’Neill (Right), member for the Central Coast seat of Robertson from 2010 until her defeat in 2013, who filled Bob Carr’s Senate vacancy in November 2013; 4. Doug Cameron (Left), former Australian Manufacturing Workers Union national secretary who was elected from number two in 2007 and 2013; 5. Tara Moriarty (Right), state secretary of United Voice.
Victoria: 1. Kim Carr (Left), leading figure in the Victorian Left, elected from number two in 1993 and 1998, and number one in 2004 and 2010; 2. Stephen Conroy (Right), an ally of Bill Shorten’s in the dominant sub-faction of the Victorian Right, who filled a casual vacancy in 1996, held top position in 1998, then second position in 2004 and 2010; 3. Jacinta Collins (Right), a former official with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association who entered the Senate in 1995, lost her seat from the number three position at the 2004 election after the party’s preference deal with Family First backfired (ironically, given her renown as a social conservative), won it back from top position in 2007, and held second position in 2013; 4. Gavin Marshall (Left), former Electrical Trades Union official who entered the Senate in 2002, and had top position in 2013; 5. Jennifer Yang (unaligned), scientist and former mayor of Manningham who unsuccessfully sought preselection for the lower house seat of Chisholm, and ran for the state seat of Mount Waverley in 2014; 6. Louise Persse (Left, I assume), former national secretary of the Community and Public Sector Union.
Queensland: 1. Murray Watt (Left), Maurice Blackburn lawyer and state member for Everton from 2009 until his defeat in the cleanout of 2012, who last year defeated incumbent Jan McLucas to win the Left’s endorsement for top position on the half-Senate ticket; 2. Anthony Chisholm (Right), former party state secretary who last year won Right endorsement to succeed Joe Ludwig after he announced he would not seek another term; 3. Claire Moore (Left), who was first elected in 2001 and held second position on the ticket in 2001, 2007 and 2013; 4. Chris Ketter (Right), former state secretary of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, who was first elected from top of the ticket in 2013; 5. Jane Casey, who I can’t tell you much about, except that she’s fron Mackay.
Western Australia: 1. Sue Lines (Left), former assistant national secretary of United Voice, who filled Chris Evans’ Senate vacancy in May 2013; 2. Glenn Sterle (Right), former Transport Workers Union organiser, elected from number two in 2004 and 2010; 3. Pat Dodson (unaligned), indigenous leader and former Roman Catholic priest, anointed by Bill Shorten to fill Joe Bullock’s Senate vacancy in March, which he eventually filled a fortnight ago; 4. Louise Pratt (Left), state upper house member from 2001 and 2007, elected to the Senate from top of the ticket in 2007, then relegated to what proved to be the losing proposition of number two in 2013; 5. Mark Reed (Left), director of campaigns and communications at United Voice.
South Australia: 1. Penny Wong (Left), the Leader of the Opposition in the Senate, first elected from top of the ticket in 2001, relegated to number two in 2007, and promoted to number one only after a backlash against Don Farrell’s initial preselection win in 2013; 2. Don Farrell (Right), former state secretary and national president of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union, elected to the Senate from number one in 2007, then voluntarily bumped to number two in 2013 (see above), from which he was unexpectedly defeated; 3. Alex Gallacher (Right), former state secretary of the Transport Workers Union, elected from top of the ticket in 2010; 4. Anne McEwen (Left), former state secretary of the Australian Services Union, elected from number on 2004, re-elected from number two in 2010, and now shunted to number four to accommodate Farrell; 5. Michael Allison (not known), network controller for SA Power Networks and delegate for the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union.
Tasmania: 1. Anne Urquhart (Left), former state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, first elected from number two in 2010; 2. Helen Polley (Right), former staffer to Premiers Jim Bacon and Paul Lennon, first elected from number two in 2004, re-elected from number two in 2010; 3. Carol Brown (Left), who filled a casual vacancy in August 2005, was elected from number two in 2007, and re-elected from number one in 2013; 4. Catryna Bilyk (Right), a former state political staffer, elected from number three in 2007 and number two in 2013; 5. John Short (Left), state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union; 6. Lisa Singh (Left), elected to the state lower house in Denison at the 2006 election, defeated in 2010, and elected to the Senate from third position in 2013, then contentiously dumped to fourth position at the half-Senate preselection in June last year.
Australian Capital Territory: 1. Katy Gallagher (Left), the territory’s Chief Minister from 2011 until her resignation in 2014, when she resigned pending her transfer to Senate in March 2015 on the retirement of Kate Lundy.
Northern Territory: 1. Nova Peris, former Olympic hockey player and sprinter, who was installed as candidate at the 2013 on the insistence of then Prime Minister Julia Gillard at the expense of the incumbent, Trish Crossin.
Truffles’ grandchildren mentioned twice DRINK! DRINK !
Turnbull only promising to stop the Debt growing by 2019/2020. Sheesh!
Spiers: “When will the debt be paid off?” Huh? Who do we need to pay?
Turnbull not so agile on the same question, a stuttering stream of numbers in an era of public faith at rock bottom.
The jury will be out on this one for most swinging voters
Turnbull should have chosen to talk last, seems he is being poorly advised.
Will Shorten defend Labor record or ignore that attack and use the precious last minutes to deliver a positive agenda-setting statement?
“Grandchildren” DRINK !
Bushfire Bill
Friday, May 13, 2016 at 8:15 pm
“Labor has a Black Hole $62 billion”?
It was only $16 billion a week ago!
The size of the “Labor black hole” varies and is inversely proportional to how well Turnbull is travelling.
Bingo, went with the stump speech rather than the rebuttal. Excellent
I know I am biased but surely nobody could call Turnbull close to a winner.
In depth comment from Ch9 news in Perth re the debate……….”Whose winning….?
After showing the small interchange on NG, Ch9 has decided this debate was too pedestrian and “there is still a long way to go to the election”. So, lock stock and barrel about 2 minutes here in Perth on this event on Ch9. Simple conclusion there were no “gotchas” and Ch9 gave it up as any kind of worthwhile news event.
Bill said he was happy to talk to people afterwards. I think Mal was forced to nod at that.
Great, couldn’t have gone better for Labor
I wonder what the wider impact of that will be, if much at all?
The closing scene was telling. Bill Shorten went along the front row, then along the sides, shaking as many hands as possible.
Malcolm Turnbull shook hands with just one or two ‘important’ people.
Rua:
Reckon Mumble will call it for Mal, for whatever that’s worth.
So…where are those bludgers who were emphatic, were loudly and repeatably insistent…. that Shorten was a *Dud*……..
They have gone quiet and are rarely seen these days…..
Labor haven’t won, yet…..but we are well and truly in with a good chance.
Ruawake
Agree it would be very hard to spin that performance as a win. Daily Telegraph will probably have to just run with Shorten “failed to land a knockout blow” or something.
Taxpayers who negatively gear cost the bulk of other taxpayers an average of $310 per year, a new analysis of Tax Office data shows.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/election-2016-what-negative-gearing-costs-other-taxpayers-310-per-year-20160513-goubz7.html#ixzz48WwKbsHA
Turnbull wasn’t bleeding from the ears – so he must have won.
confessions @ #665 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 8:24 pm
Which is why I give his opinions zero to no credence at all.
Good night everyone. I’m exhausted!!
‘Britney” Speers declares Shorten a winner “on points”
Had a chuckle at the end – Malcolm standing in the one spot, letting people come to him, whilst Bill worked the room.
Interesting that one person from the audience thought Shorten was more open and honest. This is a situation where the “vibe” is very important
Have SKY posted their “result”?
Murphy calls it for Shorten.
What I would be interested to know is how much talk time each speaker had. My impression was Malcolm had more time and more opportunity to rebut.
I knowI’m too biased to be able to tell you performed best….I like Shorten..mistrust Turnbot…not a good commentator
I’m willing to admit initial misgivings about Shorten, mainly in terms of presentation. Anyone watching that debate would agree those misgivings would have to reconsider their initial impression
It doesn’t matter who won or not. The reality is that hardly anyone watched tonight’s debate outside the rusted on political tragics like us.
From what I saw, the town hall format definitely disadvantages Turnbull who is clearly used to presenting to corporate types in a swish corporate environment with fancy catering and beverages and good ole corporate boys he can exchange back slaps and ‘what are the peasants doing haw haws’ with. He looks out of place in a community forum, probably because he’s rarely had to do these types of events.
Bill is doing very well
All good Jimmy, have a good night mate.
Paul Kelly, the jowly gravitassed one cogitating soon.
Wonder if he will be wearing his burgundy shirt.
The only criticism I would make of Shorten is that his answers were not responsive enough to the question asked , he would continue on talking points, I think this was a conscious decision to get the lines across and avoid mistakes.
Still a good performance.
Mal flash fried before being thawed properly.
Shorten 1, Turnbull 0.
Will he be available for the next game?
There is a salient feature of the -ve gearing argument that is never mentioned. Whenever first-home buyers are unable to compete with a -vely geared investors, the investors gain or retain tenants. -ve gearing concessions do not reduce rents. They increase the demand for rental housing largely without altering the supply of housing. The system ensures the supply of tenants is higher than it otherwise would be and exerts upward pressure on rents.
His Eminence Paul Kelly declares Bill “Sharper and crisper and better related to people” Pencil Neck Hartcher declares probably a draw but likely a Shorten win.
Shorten wins quite a few points simply because both he and Turnbot appear alongside each other as equals – as applicants and respondents to the same group of people – with no trimmings or officials to prop them up.
Shorten also played on fairness a lot….this is always a Labor advantage. As well, the themes mostly settled around health, education and tax. These are also Labor’s home-ground.
Turnbot did not make any errors, was energetic and projected some warmth…but Shorten will come out in front I reckon.
42 more likely to vote for Shorten, 29 for Turnbull, 29 undecided – so Kelly dismisses this debate as unimportant.
42 to 29 Shorten of those who’ve left the room
Hartcher seems to be setting a very high bar for Shorten. Given that it was 42 29 29 in favour of Shorten I think says it all.
zoomster @ #689 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 8:46 pm
That is a very good result for Shorten. I thought Turnbot was about as good as could be…and yet he still lost.
Turnbull’s attempt to scare-campaign on the banks majorly backfired when the audience spontaneously agreed with the proposition that banks are criminals. That shows that Turnbull and the Liberals are simply out of touch. This is why the ABCC BS won’t work – people are angry with big business, not unions. Furthermore, I expect “living within our means” to disappear from the lingo as Labor continues to point out the inherent contradiction between corporate tax cuts and voters’ desire for stronger health and education.
Turnbull managed to avoid barfing his dinner all over the audience, so this debate wasn’t a negative for him. But the themes raised are hostile to Turnbull and the Liberal Party. They offer fear, uncertainty and doubt on health, education and welfare, while trying to sell the public measures that help the top end of town. It’s never been a more dangerous time to be a Liberal – hence the removal of Liberal from most campaign posters.
fess
The debate in itself might not be important – although it will set the mood for the media over the next few days – but it is an indication of relative performances by the leaders over the campaign.
I might be a bit naive but I actually respect Turnbull for going into that style of debate, to be depicted as equals as someone above noted, as of course it really should be in a fair fight.
Can’t help thinking that Abbott would have slimed his way out of having to face Shorten using every trick he could think of.
Shorten also has the advantage of being able to go to topics that are forbidden territory for Turnbot….climate change, direct action, renewables, the plebiscite, the banks RC….he has a lot more to say than Turnbot, who has just one tune.
Jimmy Doyle that banking moment was gold, even Turnbull had to accede to it in the same way he did when he got laughed at for saying they don’t have factions. On the back foot for sure
Abbott would have done a much better job than Turnbull in this format. I had to laugh at Paul Kelly trying to put lipstick on Turnbull’s pig.
My opinion was that Shorten was nervous and had some problems. Possibly a bit too prolix and off-topic at times. Talking points featured too much. Breathing wasn’t the best.
Turnbull was his usual waffly self. He seems to think that a politician just just make motherhood statements and rely on the poll image to get them over the line.He sounded like someone who thought he had it in the bag. Which he doesn’t.
For punters expecting Shorten to have maggots crawling out his nostrils and his ears, a Union thug to the end, they would have been disappointed.
A slight win for Shorten. And I think he’ll do better once he gets his debating techniques and his nerves in check.
This lady had nerves too. It’s an inspiring YouTube video of what can happen when no-one expects anything of you.
https://youtu.be/YvgEyfdIO-o
Don’t laugh. This BB advising youse watch a Reality TV clip. I do have my soft spots.
Briefly @8.39
Despite the likely positive impact of their NG policy on tenants as well as first home buyers, Labor’s Amanda Rishworth got a bit spanked by Andrew Lamming on 7.30. Amanda is not very good at cutting through.