The first Western Australian state voting intention result from Newspoll since the end of last year finds Labor increasing its two-party preferred lead over Colin Barnett’s Liberal-Nationals government from 53-47 to 54-46, with Labor steady on 42% of the primary vote, the Liberals and Nationals down two points to 40% and the Greens up one to 11%. Barnett’s personal ratings are at a new low, with approval down two points to 31% and disapproval up four to 58%, while Labor leader Mark McGowan’s already strong ratings are further improved, with approval up four to 51% and disapproval down four to 28%. McGowan now holds a 46-32 lead as preferred Premier, up from 41-36 last time. Unusually, the polling period is March to May, which I believe reflects a determination not to incorporate any polling from before Stephen Smith’s abortive leadership in March in the result. The previous result was compiled from polling conducted in the final quarter of 2015.
William, is it uncommon for an unpopular State Government to hurt the Federal Party’s voting intentions in the same State?
I wouldn’t have thought so, Millennial. The Labor government that was voted out in New South Wales in 2011 continues to do so to this day.
I’m surprised it’s only 54-46 at this point.
William, do you mean the unpopularity of state Labor in NSW hurts the fortunes of federal Labor?
Yes, that’s what I was trying to say.
Assuming a 13pp uniform swing based on this polling, it looks like a reversal of the pendulum.
I guess it is stating the obvious that the two-term LNP government is a very tired one and I suspect, regardless of the the goings on in Canberra, Barnett is in some degree of trouble. Interestingly, with the State election light years away in political terms there could well be, if Labor should get back in Federally, something for the LNP to bash come next year. The tough part for the Libs at the Federal level, is that the WA electorate may chose to use the July 2 election to hit the LNP brand. As I seem to remember when Labor was in power in NSW and Federally, the cry from some was that is was the Labor “brand” which was the problem. I think big Kimbo bemoaned the fact that while – at one point in history – there were Labor State governments all across the country, he could not crack it at the Federal level. Mind you, the LNP were also in the same position with only Campbell Newman as any kind Liberal in office.
I guess some will have worked out the chances of an old government seeking a third term making the grade. I doubt whether Colin Barnett has the stomach for much more.
I think it is a good time for the LNP to hand over the reins to the ALP in WA and let them work out how to reduce the debt they have been so critical of and pay for everything including their beloved Metronet with such a poor GST share and low commodity prices.
Good morning all,
I am sure many other posters here will disagree but I really fail to see how the Fremantle incident will gave much impact on labor or the electorate.
A similar situation happened up here in Queensland after the state election. A newly elected labor member of a newly elected labor government was found to have not disclosed his previous criminal history. Even though the history related to his youth he was expelled from the party and he now sits on the cross bench.
The whole incident was handled quickly and surgically by the Premier and there was no negative feedback at all.
In simple terms it had to be done. It was not about the convictions, people do things in their youth they regret, it was the fact he had not disclosed. The simp,e fact was he had to go.
Now re Freemantle, the candidate has to go for the same reason. It is not the convictions it is the fact he did not disclose.
Before we all start to hyperventilate perhaps we should wait and see how it unfolds and how labor frames the situation.
A union labor argument over a situation like this would not be a major issue in my opinion especially as labor has not tried to cover it up but has been prepared to act.
If the coalition get into it then I find it hard to see how a possible argument of union thuggery will fly especially as labor is being proactive and disendorsing the candidate.
If the coalition try then good luck with that.
As well, who knows what little secrets are flying around among liberal candidates out there.
I am sure Bill Shorten had weighed things up and we should just wait and see.
I cannot see how a bit of union huffing and puffing and argy bargy over this will hurt labor given that according to the Libs labor is supposed to be in bed with violent militant unions. In this case the optics to me are labor is standing up to the MUA.
As well, this change in candidate may well benefit the labor vote in Freemantle, but I will leave that up to locals to analysis.
If the greens try and jump on this then it will be simple to remind voters that it was they who were hammering the selection of the labor union candidate as a bad thing a few weeks ago.
My uninformed opinion anyway but I really think we may be over blowing this whole thing and at the very least it will be a neutral issue and at best,a small positive in Freemantle for labor.
We shall see.
Cheers.
CC
Not so much “handing over the reins” but the collapse of a tired LNP nag. I will be interested, when push comes to shove, what those political harlots, the Nationals will do and who they will get into bed with if it is tight. However, I take your point. It is all a matter of priorities I guess – fancy footy stadium versus schools and hospitals, Betty’s Jetty versus improved roadworks, token gestures of more ‘faster’ buses versus a cohesive and workable transport system….these and other more useful expenditures might be the go for a change. The Barnett government had lots of public works to finished either started under the previous Labor government and/or funded from Federal funds – such as spaghetti junction on the way to Terminal 1. I guess too, to take a leaf out of the Liberal election manual, Labor will have to clear up the what? 38 billion debt mess left after the Liberals leave office. What was the figure of the surplus Labor left after Carpenter….$3…$4 billion? I forget the actual figure. Of course we all know that Liberal debt is ‘good’ debt whereas Labor debt is ‘bad debt – or so the conservatives kid themselves.
Could be long election night if we’re waiting on WA seats to decide the outcome.
CC
Its a truism that whoever wins an election has the same economy to start with.
Much as I have a lot of sympathy for Royalties for Regions, a Labor government in WA may not have that limitation. That could help them to implement some of their capital proposals. I note the timeline for Metronet is infinitely elastic and undefined. Not much of a promise, really.
WA budget must be interesting. 🙂
I cannot believe the absurd bus lane from Ellenbrook to nowhere. Nearly $50 million a complete and total waste of money and for what? Do they think they can win west swan? Surely they wouldn’t spend $50 mill to help return Frank Alban in Swan Hills? Most useless person ever to sit in the WA Parliament.
Hmmm I cant remember the relevant boundary changes maybe that is the key to the absurd $50 mill waste.