Leroy Lynch offers a reminder of a long lost Possum Comitatus post from budget time 2007, designed to address suggestions from certain elements of the media at that time that Peter Costello’s last budget (as it transpired) would finally kick off that long-awaited “narrowing” in Labor’s poll lead under Kevin Rudd. No evidence was found of consistent behaviour in polling at around budget time, but it strikes me that this matter is better considered on a case-by-case basis. So here’s a chart I’ve done showing how governments’ two-party poll ratings changed between a period from one month before each budget to one and two months after, based on trend measures of polling from the time (just Newspoll up the 2010 election, but BludgerTrack results thereafter). Many if not most of the big changes probably had little if anything to do with the budget (the Kevin Rudd leadership coup bounce in 2013, the carbon tax backlash in 2011, the unwinding of Kevin Rudd’s post-election honeymoon in 2008), but others (1993 and 2014 especially) very clearly did. Labor budgets are indicated in pink, Coalition ones in blue.
UPDATE: It occurs to me it might be a little more interesting if presented like this:
NOTE: Comment pagination is the right way up now, so make your way to the end of the last page.
Okay, here’s the situation comments-wise. Everything here is working fine until comments pagination kicks in, at which point the comments pages appear in the wrong order, and you get taken after commenting to an old page rather than the new one. This is not so much a bug as me and the site designer working at cross-purposes, which should be resolved one way or another today. Normally comments pagination kicks in after 50 comments, but to forestall the issue I currently have it set at 300. Sorry if that means you’re scrolling too much, but the alternative would be worse. If we do get past 300 before I’m on hand to do anything about it, comments will then break down into page one and page two. What you need to do to get to the latest comments is go to the bottom of page one – not page two. Thanks in advance for your forbearance.
Your efforts are appreciated, William.
Reverse order comments are fine for Twitter, but quite unsuitable for a discussion blog, with long comments, like PB.
Morning all, in response to the question above the figure of 500,000 affected by the 80,000 income tax change refers to income earners in the 80-87k band who be back on the lower marginal rate
From the SMH 25% of tax payers earn over 80,000.
Kenny and Hatcher in the SMH call the budget ‘restrained’, and politically smart.
A bit like what they said in 2014.
(sorry 3Rd posting of this over the site).
Tim Costello
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/tim-costello/a-budget-is-not-just-a-financial-document-its-a-moral-one_b_9802644.html?utm_hp_ref=australia
I agree any post budget bounce is on a case by case basis, my guess is at most a 1point gain in 2pp in the next round of polling. After that reality.
Any other guesses ?
William, Firstly just wanted you to know how much I appreciate the effort you have put in over the years. I’m an expat aussie trying to stay in touch and outside the ABC site at election time (and Anthony Green’s excellent digestion of multiple sources of data) your site has been my ‘goto’ for years without feeling a need to register and comment. I have done so now simply to point out that this new Crikey site (beta or not) is probably the ugliest web site I have visited for years. I’m viewing on a laptop yet it formats like a mobile phone, with no margin scaling for my viewport. Honestly, if you just set up your own independent WordPress site with even the most bland vanilla skin it would look so much better and I for one would follow it…. Not your fault I know, but please, please get out of this shambles….
JR – How can Kenny and Hartcher call this “politically smart”. It gives money to the well-off and corporations and hands the bill to the rest of the population. Be very surprised if the Govt gets any boost at all. Could well be the opposite.
They don’t see it as a pre election budget but responsible.
Also it does enough to blunt Labor.
– My interpretation of their columns not my opinion.
This is getting ridiculous! Now words are being split at the end of a line without any punctuation at all, making comments virtually unreadable.
John Reidy @ 6:48am, Don’t forget that everybody in the range of 87k – a gazillion also benefit by that 7k band, plus the 2k defecit tax removal.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. As expected there is a fair bit to wade through this morning. (And William gazzumped me again! 🙂 )
Will the reduced interest rate and the ungrandfathered changes to superannuation push more money into the overheated housing market? Maybe a good dose of negative gearing and CGT tax change is required.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-super-and-negative-gearing-20160503-golfbm.html
Ross Gittins says this budget is political. As soon as Morrison opened his motormouth last light that was quite apparent! The last two sentences sum things up nicley.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-forget-jobs-and-growth-this-was-political-20160502-gojr0h.html
Peter Martin has a very good look at what’s underneath the budget.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-the-coalitions-call-for-an-act-of-faith-20160502-gojr4k.html
In a typically well researched article Greg Jericho gives all the graphs that matter to the budget. There are some heroic assumptions underpinning the out years.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/04/australian-budget-2016-the-graphs-you-need-to-see
Michael Gordon says now the budget has been delivered it’s over to the “Great Persuader” to sell it.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-its-delivered-and-now-its-time-for-malcolm-turnbull-the-great-persuader-to-sell-it-20160502-gojpwd.html
In a pretty lightweight contribution Peter Hartcher describes the budget as an Abbott detox. But what about all the 2014 nasties that are still in it?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-peter-hartcher-comment-20160501-gojpma.html
Here’s Lenore Taylor’s take on the budget.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/03/scott-morrisons-budget-is-unusual-but-not-for-the-reason-he-thinks-it-is
Tony Wright says it’s a budget designed to be forgotten in two days.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-designed-to-be-forgotten-but-remembered-when-necessary-20160502-gojq2w.html
Jess Irvine looks at some of the budget’s idiosyncrasies.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-pennies-for-the-rich-while-smokers-cough-up-more-20160502-gojrcm.html
Section 2 . . .
Michelle Grattan is unconvinced.
https://theconversation.com/morrison-pushes-a-plan-not-a-cash-splash-58767
Bad news in the budget for aged care.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/03/aged-care-funding-nursing-homes-cut-federal-budget
There is no respite in this budget from the hard times the government has been giving the Australian Public Service.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/budget-2016-no-respite-from-hard-times-for-public-service-20160503-1nvpx4.html
“View from the Street” gives Dutton another well aimed serve.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-so-wait-are-we-closing-our-detention-centres-20160503-gol5xy.html
Dave Donovan on how Morrison is counting on the trickledown effect.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/treasurer-scott-morrison-counting-on-the-trickledown-effect,8949
Matt Wade on how the intern scheme is open to exploitation by the spivs.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-1000-intern-scheme-worthy-but-risky-20160503-1nvrgp.html
Alan Stokes with a great piss take on ScoMo’s 30 minute infomercial.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/scott-morrisons-budget-infomercial–but-wait–20160430-goixnt.html
Which of the tax measures will Labor accept asks Latika Bourke.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-which-scott-morrison-tax-cuts-will-labor-accept-and-reject-20160503-golipb.html
Could you BLAME Leigh Sales getting a bit toey with Morrison last night?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/leigh-sales-grills-scott-morrison-on-730-in-first-postbudget-interview-20160503-golhis.html
75% of taxpayers will miss out. And they will face big cuts in the future. There’s a lot to work on for Shorten.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-government-skews-prudent-tax-cuts-to-higher-income-earners-20160502-gojs2b.html
Section 3 . . .
Who is to blame for our high health care cost? The government or the doctors?
http://www.afr.com/business/health/hospitals-and-gps/debate-is-the-turnbull-government-or-the-ama-to-blame-for-public-health-mess-20160502-gok2mq
Nauru – We do not need to behave like a stupid and brutal nation.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/03/tragedy-on-nauru-we-do-not-need-to-act-like-a-stupid-and-brutal-nation
How to make Dutton just a bad memory.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/what-can-we-do-about-peter-dutton,8948
Only in (Republican) America!
http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-links-ted-cruzs-father-with-jfks-assassin-ahead-of-indiana-primary-20160503-golir4.html
The Parramatta Eels implode in a big way. All self-inflicted.
http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/audio-recordings-of-board-meetings-at-centre-of-parramatta-eels-salary-cap-findings-20160503-gol82i.html
Hello hello! Mesma’s squeeze has been looking at sensitive security documents. Google.
national-affairs/foreign-affairs/julie-bishops-partner-david-panton-sparks-security-query/news-story/ad4baa1ce6aa5001137afa53a6346ab1
Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner
Cathy Wilcox with a great character assessment.
More good work from Cathy Wilcox.
Ron Tandberg with the $50m retraining scheme in the wake of the collapse of auto manufacturing.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html?selectedImage=1
A good effort from Pat Campbell.
OUCH! Mark Knight holds up a mirror to the government.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/be6b7db8711dfa6cafe7019991cb95c1?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
A nice little picture of Abbott.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/cbd4129f74863ab9f2e7f47b9e686586
David Rowe takes us into the budget kitchen.
Rowe breaks out the cigars.
From Rowe as Morrison started his budget speech.
https://twitter.com/FinancialReview/status/727430241539346432
First Dog on the Moon passes a harsh judgement on the budget.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/ng-interactive/2016/may/03/if-this-budget-was-a-tomato-in-a-shop-you-would-leave-it-there-it-is-a-bad-tomato
Send a message to Malcolm.
Apparently the Daily Telegraph front page depicts Morrison as Superman. I’m almost beside myself when considering the difficulty of Labor’s task contending with that sort of propaganda.
Bring on the dissection, there must be some errors that call their “economic management” into disrepute, because it seems that everyone is touting tax cuts for “middle income earners” (top quartile are the middle apparently) and “small businesses” (turnover of $1,000,000,000)
Apparently there is no need to cost or hypothecate funding for anything in the out years, oh unless it’s Labor health and education policies it seems.
And no one is batting an eyelid.
Morning all. The coverage of the budget is what it deserved; Leigh Sales is correct. Despite the “budget emergencies lies of the government in opposition, they have no intention of reducing the deficit to the level they inherited ($30 billion) in the next three years. Promises beyond that are an entire second election campaign away, so worth nothing. Even then, they are based on dubious growth forecasts as Greg Jericho correctly pointed out. With education and infrastructure spending that is a decline in real terms per capita, it will be pure luck if the economy grows as fast as projected.
Ironically, their only genuine reform of the night, o super concessions, has been criticised by their “aspirational” (i.e. greedy) support base. Labor should vote for the super reforms, not the rest.
From the Guardian:
[The prime minister has bestowed his first interview this morning on the Seven Network. Host David Koch notes people are going to get sick and tired of the jobs and growth mantra. Nobody will get tired of having a job or the economy growing, the prime minister says.
Koch points out there’s zip in this budget for folks in the middle.
Malcolm Turnbull:
There’s stronger economic growth.]
Good grief.
Some would call this salesmanship. I wouldn’t.
[The prime minister is now in the Radio National studios with Fran Kelly, who wants to know how the budget is going to get the government re-elected. This is a long term plan, Malcolm Turnbull says, this is a plan for the future.
Q: The government is still very much trying to get out from under the 2014 budget which was tagged as unfair. You put fairness as one of the tests of this budget. If fairness is the test, why is it fair to deny those on the lower wage … why is it fair to deny them a tax cut?
Malcolm Turnbull:
Let me make it clear, Fran, everybody benefits from stronger economic growth and jobs.]
[Labor, Malcolm Turnbull says, is setting itself up for a war with business, for some kind of class warfare.]
When you’ve got to talk about class warfare, you’ve already lost the argument. Ta, ta, Malcolm.
That’s the type of war of envy, the politics of envy which absolutely stands in the way of aspiration and enterprise and growth.
Still confused as to whether this is part of a budget-only thread or a continuation of the main discussion thread.
Also, text is wrapping mid-word it appears.
The trickle down theory of economics is well to the fore this morning. I note that some commentators are calling it a ‘clever’ budget. A new definition of ‘clever’, I think.
“Labor, Malcolm Turnbull says, is setting itself up for a war with business, for some kind of class warfare.”
That is pretty ironic from a government that is proposing to give a tax break only to those on incomes over $80K, and “small” businesses with turnovers up to $1 billion, while still continuing with massive cuts to education and health funds to States.
Malcolm sounds vary vary tired; and he hasn’t even fired the starting gun; poor Malcolm still has to run the race; he is still trying to hurd the cats ; Dutton has left the plantation. Shorten and his team are all fired up, pointing in the right direction; ahead in the polls and ready to go.
Raaraa
When William posts “New Thread”, it means this is the new main thread.
The unemployment rate is below 6%, sure the real rate is higher and a lot of people would like to work more but jobs and Christopher’s Pynes seat, is that the government’s priorities now?
It isn’t going to be enough against an organised opposition.
Good morning post Budget Bludgeteers!
A few observations and thoughts from the wider world (well, just the radio and morning shows ‘Sunrise’ and ‘Today’, actually 😀 )
* Malcolm Turnbull being interviewed by Kochie was asked where are all the ‘Jobs and Growth’ going to come from? Especially as Kochie had read the Budget graphs and Unemployment is projected to only go down a little bit and Growth to only increase a little bit?
Turnbull came straight out and said the Services sector is where the Jobs and Growth are going to come from! Or should that be the, ‘Serfices Sector’?
* On ‘Today’ Bill Shorten came up with a killer line, which Karl Stefanovic agreed with, “Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery”.
* Marius Benson, gimlet-eyed about politics as ever, echoed William’s poll sentiments above and said that the Budget will likely not produce a poll bounce and anyway, with a 50+ day campaign ahead where anything can happen, that that is the more likely determinant of electoral success going forward.
* Seems like a pretty large voting demographic, in the New Mums of Australia, are ‘Not Happy, Scott & Malcolm!’ with the deferral of Scott Morrison’s much-trumpeted Families and Child Care package to the almost Never Never of 2018.
* The Environment movement said the $100 odd Million to The Great Barrier Reef was simply a token gesture.
So, basically the Budget has come down to token gestures and attempts to calm the horses, plus use money out of the Budget for the Coalition to have issues that they have perceived are important to the electorate neutralised and for them to be able to talk about them in a positive way, as if they cared.
Finally, I was just calculating how well you would have done out of the Budget if you were Malcolm and Lucy Turnbull, or their neighbours in Point Piper.
Very well, it seems.
*You would be getting the Deficit Levy lifted.
*A Tax Cut for likely earning >$87000 a year. Or
*A ‘Small Business’ Tax Cut as you would likely be the proprietor of a ‘Small Business’ of < $10 Million in Turnover per year ( or you would be down to the Accountant today seeing how you could split one into smaller entities if it was bigger to take advantage).
* You can now tap Centrelink for young unemployed youth to work at your 'Small Business' for free, for the 'experience', in a never-ending taxpayer-funded spigot of bodies and likely, money to take them on.
Nice work if you can get it. For the Businessman and woman anyway.
A leadership FAIL from Labor.
Labor says advocates abandoned ARENA, so it will too
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/labor-says-advocates-abandoned-arena-so-it-will-too-38358
It will be interesting to see how the Adelaide Advertiser reports the budget. (I avoid reading it on taste grounds). Normally it is pro-Liberal even by Murdoch press standards. But the fact is there is no new infrastructure money for SA in this budget, and the subs money does not actually start flowing for several years, while there is a severe local job crunch now. Good luck Chris Pyne! Have a good day all.
We don’t get our kids educated; we don;t get a helath system that works but we get trickle down economics.
morning all
I was listening to Tony Delroy on ABC radio last night. He invited callers to give their thoughts on the budget. Every call was highly critical. One lady said that the liberals and coalition can go and jump in the ocean. Lol!
SOCRATES – No money for Qld either. Any state that didn’t sign up to the recycling boondoggle gets zip.
And a big thank you BK for today’s budget reports
Malcolm just said he will only be $300 a year better off. If that is right, either:
1. He is lying; or
2. He doesn’t pay enough income tax to pay the deficit levy ($180,000 a year)
For anyone interested in Emma Alberici interview with Cormann last night
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/
Barnaby’s face was beaming when “lots and lots more dams” was announced. I assume it was one of his recommendations.
From the GG, Google:
/budget-2016/budget-2016-live-coverage-the-reaction/news-story
And the articles conclusion
And the Greens bite and chew on the hand of the party that can win government and does take an interest in the environment. In short the greens are now about the Greens not the environment.
And I dont much like the sound of the annoucement of young unemployed people doing internships, susbsidized to the tune of $4.00 per hour.
lizzie @ #33 Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 8:17 am
Those dams are just going to be gigantic holes in the ground with no water in them!
Dutton has three official press secretaries, the most of any minister other than the PM.
Gee, it must be hard work, sending out “no comment” all day.
Heh. Heh. 🙂
Mr Denmore @MrDenmore · 11h11 hours ago
#Budget2016 forecasts defence spending to rise in real terms by 8.3% over the next 4 years; education spending flat.
It’s not a ‘Clever’ Budget. It IS a ‘Clever Dick’ Budget.
Yesterdays announcement by the RBA will put around $20 a week in to the hands of those in the mortgage belt (provided the Banks pass on the full 0.25% rate cut and Commonwealth has already moved overnight).
As good as a Tax cut?
Looks like a do-not very much Budget buttressed by a stimulatory RBA. Given growth figure projections (2.5%) there is already talk of another cut in the next couple of months.
Josh Taylor
✔
@joshgnosis
I counted 24 “jobs and growth” logos on the signs during the budget press conference. It’s the new flag.
Obviously the start of brilliant careers.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/heres-how-many-times-scott-morrisons-budget-speech-used-the-catchphrase-jobs-and-growth-2016-5
(Some good Twitter reactions in the story)
Lizzie
And you have to ask. Why is an internship required in these types of businesses and why does the taxpayer have to subsidize payment? This is a handout to business to employ slave labor
I must live on another planet than ScoMo. Perhaps it’s just as well.
The budget is actually about “Jobs and Growth”
It is about Malcom and Scot preserving their jobs and their supporters growing their wealth.