Federal budget: the morning after

As the government gears up to reverse its polling fortunes on the back of last night’s budget, a look at post-budget polling effects going back to the dawn of Newspoll.

Leroy Lynch offers a reminder of a long lost Possum Comitatus post from budget time 2007, designed to address suggestions from certain elements of the media at that time that Peter Costello’s last budget (as it transpired) would finally kick off that long-awaited “narrowing” in Labor’s poll lead under Kevin Rudd. No evidence was found of consistent behaviour in polling at around budget time, but it strikes me that this matter is better considered on a case-by-case basis. So here’s a chart I’ve done showing how governments’ two-party poll ratings changed between a period from one month before each budget to one and two months after, based on trend measures of polling from the time (just Newspoll up the 2010 election, but BludgerTrack results thereafter). Many if not most of the big changes probably had little if anything to do with the budget (the Kevin Rudd leadership coup bounce in 2013, the carbon tax backlash in 2011, the unwinding of Kevin Rudd’s post-election honeymoon in 2008), but others (1993 and 2014 especially) very clearly did. Labor budgets are indicated in pink, Coalition ones in blue.

2016-05-04-budgetbounce

UPDATE: It occurs to me it might be a little more interesting if presented like this:

2016-05-04-budgetbounce2c

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

732 comments on “Federal budget: the morning after”

Comments Page 2 of 15
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  1. In a nutshell………
    1m1 minute ago
    Rowan ‏@FightingTories
    Its a multi pronged approach : Give business cheap workers and Gov a low youth unemployment figure. #SlavesForTheDole

  3. How unsurprisement……..

    GP copayment by stealth in budget as government freezes Medicare rebate at $37 for six years, scripts to rise by $5.
    7:38 PM – 3 May 2016
    129 129 Retweets 24 24 likes

  5. Frednk

    And the Greens bite and chew on the hand of the party that can win government and does take an interest in the environment. In short the greens are now about the Greens not the environment.

    Bullshit. Read your own quote.

    Once again though, it is the inability of the renewable energy industry to tap into overwhelming consumer support, to advocate, to stand up to governments, and its willingness to appease, that results in it shooting itself in the foot – just as happened in negotiations on the renewable energy target.

    Labor should show leadership, not simply give up because a particular group fails to effectively advocate. Ultimately it is about saving the planet.

  6. For those interested, the SA Nuclear Fuel Royal Commission (aka Waste Dump RC) final report is due in the next couple of days. Will their be a mention of submarines? Those on the inside are certainly not telling me squat. My guess is – no.

  8. William: I’ve also been noticing on Firefox that words in comments appear to be broken in half across line boundaries. This seems to originate from the Cascading Style Sheets (CSS) instructions for the page. Take out “word-wrap:break-word;” and “word-break: break-all;”, and things are back to normal.

  10. Not expecting this budget will have much impact on polling. Almost everything was teased or leaked before budget day anyway and didn’t seem to have much impact on polling.

    There will be some good press for the Liberals for their genuine attempt to improve some things, such as super tax breaks and profit shifting, even though the amount they changed is way short of necessary.

    There will be an increasing amount of bad press as long as ScoMo continues to abuse maths so badly:
    Phrasing a 3 billion cut to education as a 1 billion increase because they originally wanted to cut it by 4 billion.
    Phrasing a 3000 employee cut to the ATO as a 1000 rise because they originally wanted to cut it by 4000.
    Announcing ‘new’ funding for Melbourne/Sydney metro that was guarenteed since 2014.
    Using average wage of a full time employee in situations where anyone with brains uses median wage of all employees.
    Claiming that gdp growth next 3 years will be 4.5, 5 and 5.5%.
    Leaving billions in cost cutting on the books from Abbott’s 2014 budget, which have no chance of passing through the senate before the 2019 election.

    The media are a bit slower than us Pollbludgers on noticing this sort of thing, but even they are starting to call them out on a few of these.

    Ultimately, I feel the budget adds to the impression of Turnbull as someone who wants to be PM but only to reach the top of the corporate ladder, and without any real direction now he is in the position.

  11. Trog, I am not surprised you can’t see my point. Enjoy the biting and chewing. Labor will be in government delivering a % of something and the greens will no doubt continue arguing for 100% of nothing.

  12. Lizzie
    Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 8:29 am
    The examples of internships in the budget papers are for ‘waiting tables’ and ‘working in a supermarket’

    Obviously the start of brilliant careers.

    These are the two industries where Fair Work Australia has found the greatest number of employees being exploited.

  13. Ultimately, I feel the budget adds to the impression of Turnbull as someone who wants to be PM but only to reach the top of the corporate ladder, and without any real direction now he is in the position.

    The Seinfeld PM leading a Seinfeld government produces a Seinfeld budget. Totally consistent.

  15. From Chris Bowen:

    This budget fails to set Australia up for the future — by cutting services, cutting infrastructure, cutting skills and education. In the budget tonight:

    An extended GP Tax by stealth
    Cuts to schools
    Cuts to Medicare
    Cuts to families and pensioners that will increase the cost of living
    Cuts to higher education
    Tax cuts for multinationals
    Cuts to veterans’ hospitals
    But of everyone, Australian families are the biggest losers tonight:

    Individuals who earn the most will get a double tax cut – someone on $1,000,000 will get a $16,715 tax cut tonight while three quarters of Australian taxpayers receive absolutely nothing.
    A couple with a single income of $65,000 with three children in primary school are $3,034 worse off a year – and receive no tax cuts.
    A single mother with an income of $87,000 with two children in high school is $4,463 worse off per year as a result of tonight’s budget.
    Finally, the Liberals have done very little about repairing the budget:

    Tonight’s budget forecasts higher taxes than at any time while Labor was in government.
    It confirms the Government has lost control of the deficit – it has tripled the deficit in three years, while debt continues to grow.
    At the same time, the budget confirms unnecessary spending, including the Government’s new $1,000 baby bonus.

    A new baby bonus?!

  19. [
    Scott Bales
    Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 8:47 am
    …
    Claiming that gdp growth next 3 years will be 4.5, 5 and 5.5%.
    ]
    Has the growth in the australian economy every been 5.5%; in the 60s it got close to 5% but never over. The kool aid would have to be strong to believe that.

  20. Comment from the Guardian:
    [So if I am a small business, say a coffee shop, I could get $10K from the government to have free labour, after a week’s barrista training, for nine weeks, I bet those nine weeks will also include wage free Sundays. Oh and at the end of it I give the kid the boot and get another free one.]

  21. I was over at the Guardian and saw this quoted from Turnbull in his interview with Fran Kelly re asylum seekers in detention on Nauru:

    Fran, the misery that many of those people are in, the mental anguish that many of them are in is something that we sympathise with, we grieve for them.

    Words fail me.

  22. Re the daily telegraph portraying Morrison as Superman, the paper copy is over the top.
    It has a semi transparent wrap around, that shows Morrison in a suit as Clark Kent, then when you turn it to see the actual front page, he is suited up in budgie smugglers and cape.
    How much it would cost I don’t know.

  23. Frednk

    Labor will be in government delivering a % of something and the greens will no doubt continue arguing for 100% of nothing.

    I’d get to a vet Frednk. Your conjunctivitis may indicate psittacosis.

  25. At the same time, the budget confirms unnecessary spending, including the Government’s new $1,000 baby bonus.

    Really? One for Malcolm, one for ScoMo and one to look after you in your old age, because the government won’t.

  26. John Reidy

    I have seen front pages of the other murdoch papers somewhere on twitter. It seems as if the daily tele has been the most favourable to team Turnbull and co

  31. Re slave labour policy………

    Likes
    Tweets
    Rowan
    3m3 minutes ago
    Rowan ‏@FightingTories
    Current employment rules are 3 months trial period – With award wages – Malcolm was asked who’d train them, he had NO idea, said Jobactive

  32. http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/labor-says-advocates-abandoned-arena-so-it-will-too-38358

    Labor’s decision to stop defending ARENA means there is nothing left to stop legislation being passed to confirm that $1 billion of funding will be removed – to the horror of the Greens, and the renewable energy industry and developer of new technologies.

    It could be that Labor is using this as an excuse and is putting ARENA into the too hard basket. It stinks of political expedience. What, might one ask, will Labor do is they don’t get into power and the Coalition pushes through the legislation to slash the ARENA cuts. It beggars belief that Labor would agree.

  34. peter murphy @ #56 Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 8:45 am

    William: I’ve also been noticing on Firefox that words in comments appear to be broken in half across line boundaries. This seems to originate from the Cascading Style Sheets (CSS) instructions for the page. Take out “word-wrap:break-word;” and “word-break: break-all;”, and things are back to normal.

    Peter – those changes you suggest need to be made at moderator or Crikey IT level ? or on individual PC’s etc ?

  35. Yep….
    CFMEUWA
    10h10 hours ago
    CFMEUWA ‏@CFMEUWA
    Turnbull and his LNP take us down the path of USA style interns- code for another form of cheap labour open to rorting #auspol #CFMEU

  36. John Reidy
    #55 Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 6:51 am
    I agree any post budget bounce is on a case by case basis, my guess is at most a 1point gain in 2pp in the next round of polling. After that reality.

    Any other guesses ?

    The LNP will lose 2PPV …anything from 30 to 80 basis points.

  38. AM this morning showed what Labor is up against.
    Morrison first up, mouthing slogans, platitudes and half truths, talking all over the interviewer, Brissenden, who then generally gave up on that particular line of questioning.

    Next up Shorten, articulate, persuasive and relaxed. However Brissenden’s continual interruptions were not talked over and had the effect of disrupting the flow of the interview, making Brissenden sound like an advocate for coalition talking points.
    Despite all this I thought that Shorten did very well.

    Next for ABC balance they had Jennifer Westacott spruiking the budget for all it’s worth.

  41. VICTORIA – Thanks.

    JR – I’m with Briefly. This budge is stinking up the place already. Malcayman is sitting in Canberra in his bespoke suit and silk undies telling most Australians they are useless bludgers who don’t deserve any tax break. Genius. I haven’t even got onto the nasties like the internships, etc etc.

  42. Jo ..citizens win
    ‏@chickenlittle31
    Jesus!! PM on @774melbourne. He literally will not admit that those on actual average or low income cannot put more into super #Budget2016

  43. “Peter – those changes you suggest need to be made at moderator or Crikey IT level ? or on individual PC’s etc ?” I don’t have any funny plugins on my computer; I’m using a bog standard Firefox installation on Windows 7. So I reckon it is a Crikey IT / Webmaster problem.

  44. Dave, Nate Silver is cautiously predicting Trump will get the 1237 delegates he needs before the convention.
    ——————————–
    As our delegate calculator suggests, the combination of a big win in Indiana and uncommitted delegates from Pennsylvania and other states should be enough to put Trump ahead of the 1,237-delegate mark, even if he encounters a few bumps in the road later on…

  45. Two things are obvious: the talking heads in the Coalition have been studiously learning how to talk so fast and over any interviewer in an attempt to prevent people seeing the holes in their policies. Morrison, Cormann and Malcolm have all been doing it. The term ‘verbal diarrhea’ has found a new meaning.

    The detail that was not stated in the speech last night was all the ‘bad news’ for the vulnerable and less well off, I expect in the hope that nobody will notice. The welfare cuts etc. weren’t mentioned at all. And it will take the media, and those who speak for the vulnerable, who’ll need to make their own voices heard over the coalition talk-festing.

    I also suspect, that any ‘positives’ they’re currently stressing will be be forgotten by the electorate quite soon.

  49. What a great place the world would be with Trump as POTUS, Turnbull as PM, Cameron as UKPM, Kim Jong Un as dear leader….

  50. There is also survey re budget. Good or bad………

    weighed in on Scott Morrison’s “mediocre” first Budget during an awkward exchange with the treasurer on the TODAY show this morning.

    “Just by the by Treasurer, the Opposition Leader’s been bagging the hell out of you during that whole interview,” co-host Karl Stefanovic told Mr Morrison following an interview with Lisa Wilkinson.

    Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/05/04/08/03/budget-2016-shorten-weighs-in-on-morrison-budget#HbLxjsHAKumgTH6Y.99

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