Leroy Lynch offers a reminder of a long lost Possum Comitatus post from budget time 2007, designed to address suggestions from certain elements of the media at that time that Peter Costello’s last budget (as it transpired) would finally kick off that long-awaited “narrowing” in Labor’s poll lead under Kevin Rudd. No evidence was found of consistent behaviour in polling at around budget time, but it strikes me that this matter is better considered on a case-by-case basis. So here’s a chart I’ve done showing how governments’ two-party poll ratings changed between a period from one month before each budget to one and two months after, based on trend measures of polling from the time (just Newspoll up the 2010 election, but BludgerTrack results thereafter). Many if not most of the big changes probably had little if anything to do with the budget (the Kevin Rudd leadership coup bounce in 2013, the carbon tax backlash in 2011, the unwinding of Kevin Rudd’s post-election honeymoon in 2008), but others (1993 and 2014 especially) very clearly did. Labor budgets are indicated in pink, Coalition ones in blue.
UPDATE: It occurs to me it might be a little more interesting if presented like this:
[Faine is on to multinational tax avoidance now. He says rich people will always find evasion and avoidance worth their while, it makes good business sense, he suggests the prime minister knows about managing his tax affairs from his business days.
The prime minister isn’t impressed.
Jon I have always paid tax in Australia. I’ve always paid a lot of tax. I don’t have a family trust. I’m very conservative in the management of tax affairs I assure you, and the innuendo you made there was unworthy.]
Turnbull now has no excuses for not showing us the tax returns he is so proud of.
Thanks Peter.
simon katich @ #92 Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 9:28 am
Simon
Hopefully trump will drag the repugs down with him
For anyone interested in what the budget means for science funding, this is from the press release by Science & Technology Australia (formerly FASTS).
From the Federal Budget Lockup
“It is no surprise that there is little new for science in tonight’s Federal Budget. After the announcement of the $1.1 Billion National Innovation and Science Agenda (NISA) last December, it was unlikely additional measures would follow.
Some measures include:
$110.5 million to Geoscience Australia to produce geographic modelling of mineral, groundwater and petroleum resources across South Australia and Northern Australia;
$15 million for a national carp control plan;
The Bureau of Meteorology will receive funding to maintain its supercomputer capabilities, with the total amount commercial-in-confidence;
The Great Barrier Reef Plan and Trust will get a $171 million boost, extending the program to make the reef more resilient;
$12 million for an extension of the Australian Astronomical Observatory, taking it out to 2019/20
(The CRC program is described as providing some of the savings to fund the AAO. The exact amount is not clear.)
Many members will be interested in the fate of the controversial higher education reforms of 2014/15 (full fee deregulation and a 20 per cent cut to funding per student place). The 20 per cent cut has remained in the assumptions that underlie the Budget. However, policy decisions have not been finalised on these and other significant higher education issues. Instead, the Government has issued a paper as part of the Budget. “Driving Innovation, Fairness and Excellence in Australian Higher Education” canvasses a wide range of issues and options, with policy determinations to be finalised by year’s end.
There will be initiatives of interest to members buried in the detailed Portfolio Budget Statements for individual Federal Departments. Direct links to all of these documents are included.
As usual we welcome any input, hints and useful intelligence as we continue to dig through the documents in the coming days.
Regards, Catriona Jackson, STA CEO. ”
A bit of info about STA: About Science & Technology Australia
Science & Technology Australia (STA) is Australia’s peak body in science and technology. Representing more than 68,000 scientists and technologists working across all scientific disciplines, STA is a respected and influential contributor to debate on public policy. Our mission is to bring together scientists, governments, industry and the broader community to advance the role, reputation and impact of science and technology across the nation.
I think Sales attacking Morrisson on 7:30 last night is an attempt to protect her dining companion Malcolm; and just maybe trying to show how touigh she is after all the commentary here and elsewhere about how biased she is towards the LNP.
This rich dickhead really thinks he’s going to win an election?
[Turnbull then has a question for the radio host.
Q: Are your kids locked out of the housing market?
Jon Faine:
Yes.
Malcolm Turnbull
Well you should shell out … and provide some inter-generational equity in the Faine family.]
Just what the tories ‘need’ to do ??
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-03/china-threatens-its-economists-and-analysts-only-write-bullish-reports-or-else
Oh, I do like this (sarcasm)- those corals will have to step up.
The headline of that article is “New Jobs Plan To Get 120,000 Young People Off The Couch, Trained Up And Into Work”. It perpetuates the myth that all (young) unemployed people are lazy slobs who are work-shy and and must be prodded to work. Doubtless that is the belief of “Cayman Island” Turnbull and “Prosperity Gospel” Morrison.
That Huffington Post article’s headline says what Turnbull/Morrison think –
I commented on the last but one thread that I had written to Dutton about his odious suggestion that asylum seekers were being encouraged to set themselves alight by the actions of refugee advocates. I said I would write to the Papal Nuncio in Canberra (email address: nuntius@nunciature.com.au) asking if he could suggest that the prominent refugee activist Pope Francis visit Nauru. I have now sent that letter:
Archbishop Adolfo Tito Yllana
Apostolic Nuncio to Australia
Your Excellency,
You will be aware of the desperate plight of asylum seekers who seek help from Australia and who instead are confined in prison-like places on Manus Island in Papua New Guinea or on Nauru. They are told by Australia that they have no prospect whatever of ever being allowed to come to Australia. They are being treated very badly and their spirits are being broken. This is a tragedy for all concerned: for the asylum seekers because their treatment is akin to torture; and for the Australian populace, because they are being desensitised and brutalised by a polity that is encouraging Australian voters to be nasty, selfish and uncaring.
His Holiness Pope Francis has shown very fine concerns for people in similar situations. I ask you, indeed I implore you, to convey a message to the Vatican to request His Holiness to intervene in this matter and to pay a visit to the asylum seekers on Nauru.
Nauru is a very long way from the Vatican and it would be a taxing journey for His Holiness. But it would make a very real difference. Something must be done about this awful situation.
Yours sincerely
Paul Hodgson
K17
Faine must have loved that response from Mal. How to win friends etc etc.
For as much as it is worth, I think this budget will disappear from public view as quickly as news about the last grand final win does. To that end this will probably suit the government.
What happened to the “Budget Crisis” the Libs were always banging on about? I notice the addition of $39 billion to the deficit is just a small comment in the corner of the page as it were.
The West editorial gives a limp response of wtte — “A Budget for its time” or similar. However, the last line is to challenge Bill Shorten to come up with something else/new as “Prime Minister in waiting” which is an interesting comment. I suggests the government has actually run out of any ideas and is waiting for the Opposition to come up with something/anything.
I wonder where consumer confidence will go after this? It is suggested the cut in the interest rate has more impact than the budget itself which speaks volumes I suppose.
kevin-one-seven @ #104 Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 9:47 am
………………………………………………………………………………………………….
K17 – Clearly the Faine’s need to take dopey joe’s ‘advice’ and get a high paying jobs as a starter.
The plebs get to ‘donate’ their labor via so called “internships”.
Sanders now ahead of Clinton in Indiana – after 30% counted.
TRICOT – The viciousness and inequity of some of its measures won’t disappear. They were entirely unnecessary in a pre-election polly-filla budget, which shows just how dumb these libs are.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/federal-budget/underwhelming-budget-piles-on-the-injustice-says-victorian-treasurer-tim-pallas-20160503-golmgu.html
When Jon Faine asked Turnbull this morning how his children are going to afford to buy their own place, the answer was that he might have to chip in.
Well back in the bizaro world of the USA
Trump has won Indiana. He is now pretty much certain to be the nominee. Nate Silver’s predictive capacities have i think taken a bit of a battering. Real Clear Politics seems more reliable.
When i lokked a bout three minutes ago SANDERS is winning.
However the really, really, really scary thing for democrats is the SIZE of the turnout. Trump is massivley beating Clinton in votes
Word wrap works on my iphone but not on a pc, go figure.
Dave ———– Hopefully trump will drag the repugs down with him
I am hoping for a decent Repug to run an independent candidacy.
Assuming such a beast exists.
A recent Rasmussen poll had Trump ahead of Clinton. The first such poll result. Its only Rasmussen (one of the least reliable and right leaning house effect) and its only one poll…. but….
Photos
Likes
Tweets
ABC Radio Melbourne
1m1 minute ago
ABC Radio Melbourne @774melbourne
PM tells Jon Faine “Are your kids are locked out of the housing market? You should shell out for them!”
https://soundcloud.com/774-abc-melbourne/prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-speaks-to-jon-faine-on-774-abc-melbourne …
With an added comment that he may be going for Senate.
Sanders still ahead. Not that it will help him much (sadly as I am a Sanders fan).
Mind you if I were a rational hard headed democrat i would be getting very, very, very twitchy right now. Ttump is going to be the nominee. He has proved himself a very effective campainger.
So here is my list of pluses and minuses re Hilary and Bernie
First Hillary
1. Hilary has more delegates
2. Hillary has experience in many, many areas
3. Hillary appeals to blacks and hispanics
4. Hillary has lots and lots of baggage which Trump will exploit
5. Hillary is not an expecially good campainer
6. A small but significant % of Sanders voters will just not bother to turn up for Hillary
7. There is a tiny (but real) chance Hillary will be indicted
8. A significant number of the white working class voters will prefer trump to Hillary
9. Polling shows Hillary with 4-7% less votes overall than Sanders, making her victory over trump not a certainty
Bernie
1. He will energise the voters and drag them out
2. He will draw some of the Trump voters
3. He is a socialist and that is a dirty word
4. He has not really been put to the fire test – ie not too much heat has been sent at him, so it is not entirely clear how he will cope.
5. Polling gives him a very clear lead over Hilary nationally
daretotread @ #216 Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 10:06 am
I’m not sure about that. He didn’t say Trump won’t get to 1237. He calculated a “most likely” of something less than that before the NY primary, but Trump has well out-performed his polls since then. At the time Silver also calculated a plausible path to 1237 if he did better than expected. I’m not aware of anything he got wrong given the data he had at the time.
victoria
Because all parents of kids wanting to get into the housing market must be rich enough to benefit from negative gearing so they can “shell out” for them.
If Clinton is not brought undone by the FBI email investigation then she will almost certainly get the Dem nomination.
The Dems (all of them – including Obama & Sanders) have a compelling interest in pushing their voters to get behind her because they can deliver an historic win of states, governorships and other Dem candidates that will serve the Democratic cause for decades to come.
The Greens have captured a key slice of the electorate, and their take is that it’s a massive let down.
You gotta laugh at the effects of the Green Kool Aid.
Lizzie
Yep. In any event. Why should kids require handouts from cashed up parents. Where is the incentive to make it on your own two feet?
So take that, you misty-eyed history lovers.
I love that the Channel 9 – ‘did you like the budget’ poll has the yes colored blue, and the no colored red. If you forget how to have opinions, you can always just click the button the color of the tie of the people you like.
Coming up after the election, the winning team will sing their team song.
Nate Silver a few minutes ago:
“Cruz is about to drop out of the Republican race, according to an array of well-sourced reporters on Twitter.”
Yep, Cruz is about to fall on his sword.
Trump v Cruz… hard to find a good guy in this contest.
William
An interesting feature of most of the US primary polls is that they seem to be within MoE for Clinton votes eg predicting 50% and she gets 48.5%, but about 5-8% below for Sanders.
I wonder if any of the folowing applies:
1. The last minute undecided all move as a block to Sanders
2. There is a “shy Sanders fan” effect
3. The polling methodology somehow does not capute enough of the Sanders voters
4. it is a turnout issue – more sanders voters make the effort to show up.
Have you any thoughts?
So Trump comes up trumps as Cruz forecloses
dtt
“However the really, really, really scary thing for democrats is the SIZE of the turnout. Trump is massivley beating Clinton in votes”
It’s Indiana.
Reports coming in that cruz is supsending his campaign.
President trump here we come!!!
How many US refugees can Nauru hold?
Cruz pulls out, sounding and looking like a broken down tele-evangelist.
Cruz gone
Sanders voters are more highly motivated than Clinton voters in the primary process. That’s one reason why Sanders does well in caucuses – it requires major commitment to attend a caucus.
In the general election, opposition to Trump will provide enough motivation to drive turnout from progressive and moderate voters.
Also, Palmer announced that he doesn’t want to face the embrassesment of going from 50.0001% of the 2CP vote to 2% of the first preference, for a 48% swing against him (possibly the biggest swing ever for someone who contested the seat, obviously, an independent who held a seat but didn’t recontest technically has more swing against them)
If its Trump as Potus and Cruz on the Scotus I am moving to Mars.
Wanted: A third candidate.
Here’s another one you should all like:
OK back to SAussie budget
I am not posting much because it si all a bit of a yawn
The medicare stuff is significant, but it will be still quite hard for Labor to stir people up about it.
bk @ #135 Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 10:46 am
😀
But, but Ted’s Dad assured him he was the Second Coming of Jesus Christ and born to be POTUS!
OMG I found something good in the budget!
That ridiculous School Chaplain program has been axed.
Tones wont like that at all.
How long before Donald Trump has Ted Cruz standing behind him on the lectern with dead eyes?
C@t – Dead eyes Cruz
No way. Cruz, despite all his faults, isnt a spineless slug like Christie.
Burke handled Alberici stupidity reasonably well on Lateline. Apparently she thinks that any bullshit that Cormann leaks becomes “actual” even though nothing has actually happened yet and we don’t know what “whatever reason” is. Absolutely pathetic.
“How is Labor going to fill the $19.5 billion hole that’s suddenly emerged, given your miscalculation on the proceeds of the tobacco taxes? ”
“Well, you said it was going to raise a certain amount. It’s actually going to raise $19.5 billion less.”
then she interrupts every time he refers to PBO
“I don’t want to run out of time and I’m sorry to interrupt you, but the question was: how are you going to fill that hole?”
“Are you not accepting that you said it was going to generate a certain amount of money but it’s actually $19.5 billion less? ”
“Your figures are $19.5 billion out for whatever reason.”
Finally
“So you don’t accept that we should be aligning ourselves more closely to the middle of the OECD range of company tax rates, which apply to all companies?”
Hey genius, how many of those OECD companies have a dividend imputation system? Australian shareholders effectively pay 0% company tax since 1987 so only foreign shareholders really benefit from a company tax cut.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2015/s4455406.htm
[The medicare stuff is significant, but it will be still quite hard for Labor to stir people up about it.]
Add it to the housing stuff, the education stuff, the environmental stuff, and the taxation stuff, and I don’t think that they’ll have any trouble at all. If we had a halfway reasonable media, in fact the govt would be stuffed.