Double dissolution election (maybe) minus nine weeks

To tide us over through a quiet spot, a closer look at the Australian National University’s latest survey on issues of public concern.

We’re about half-way between the weekly BludgerTrack and when I’m anticipating the next opinion poll, this being the period of pre-budget calm before the storm, and a new thread is wanted. So I’ve decided to hang this one off the latest ANUpoll survey, an exercise conducted by the Australian National University two or three times a year to gauge the public mood on a specific area of public policy, and track the salience of various issues over time. The subject of the latest instalment, which was conducted by phone from a sample of 1200 in February and March, is tax and equity in Australia. Among various findings on tax that would be familiar from those who follow Essential Research, the report also finds support for increased spending on social services at its highest level since the series began in 1987. The report also finds that, in spite of everything, 56% consider the existing system “moderately fair”, on top of another 4% for “very fair”, while 22% rate it “not too fair” and 18% “not at all fair”.

The survey also features regular questions in which respondents are asked to name the first and second most important political problems, out of a list that presently includes 27 options. To make this easier to interpret, I’ve condensed results into various categories, which are hopefully generally self-explanatory (particularly economy/budget, environment and better government – security/external covers wars, terrorism, defence and immigration, while services covers health and education and such). The progress of these results since 2008 is shown in the chart below.

2016-04-30-anupoll

From which a number of points are clearly worth noting. Concern about service provision mounted to giddy heights after the 2014 budget, but promptly returned to normal after Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister. The combined result for the various economic issues is at a low point in the latest survey, having peaked in the years immediately following the global financial crisis. Security/external and crime/society, which are largely conservative concerns, are on an upward trend. “Better government”, I’m guessing, was a popular response among Coalition supporters while Labor was in power, but is not a correspondingly popular choice for Labor voters now it’s the Coalition’s turn.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,251 comments on “Double dissolution election (maybe) minus nine weeks”

Comments Page 15 of 26
1 … 14 15 16 … 26

  1. victoria @ #660 Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 12:47 pm

    Gecko
    Ss briefly said. The contrast is stark. Bowen crisp and clear. Morrison foaming at the mouth

    I have to admit to being skeptical of Bowen at first. I think I once said on PB that he reminded me of a used car salesman and wasn’t confident he would appeal. But I’m pleased he has proven me wrong.

  2. I hope Hollande stumps up and pays the blood-debt while he’s here. Having a debt outstanding for a century is very poor form.

  4. vote1julia @ #670 Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 1:02 pm

    All this Greens bitchin’ is such a waste of energy. Greens this…Greens that,” It goes without saying they are not of the left.” Yet the whingers welcome Green Preferences. Well whingers be true to your convictions. Start a campaign “We don’t want or need Greens’ preference votes.”

    TODAY: Greens Vs Labor… behind William’s house, 4 o’clock. Bring a plate and bandages.

  5. lizzie @ #695 Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 2:05 pm

    It seems that the value of Telehealth was being extolled on ABC24. I thought that its success depended on a universal roll out of the original NBN.

    Not quite.
    Where high speed broadband is available, its full capabilities will be available.
    Otherwise a second or third rate service will be possible.
    But even the NBN as Labor intended only provided fibre to 93% of premises. In the more remote areas it would be satellite which provides a lesser service and in some areas not as remote but where, fibre to some premises was not feasible, if would be point-to-point wireless. Ask Don about that, but it will never be as fast as fibre.

  6. I don’t know of anyone who is looking forward to watching ScoMo’s Budget.

    I’m looking forward to him ankle tapping himself and the rest of the tories – he will to some degree I’m confident.

    Its a matter of how much.

  7. Gecko

    TODAY: Greens Vs Labor… behind William’s house, 4 o’clock. Bring a plate and bandages.

    And don’t worry if you miss it today … it will be on again tomorrow … and the day after … and the day after that … !

  8. gecko,

    TODAY: Greens Vs Labor… behind William’s house, 4 o’clock. Bring a plate and bandages.

    Huzza! I’ve been practicing my Death Stare!

    Um, er, wrong party. 😳

  9. vote1julia

    I am with you!
    Absolutely boring drivel but I guess some on here have nothing else to talk about.
    Will they not take preferences to Labor from the Greens?

  12. Meet the candidates for the seat of Fremantle:

    Over the next few weeks, the ABC will meet the candidates in the main WA battlegrounds, including the Liberal-held seat of Cowan and the new electorate of Burt.

    The Liberals hold 12 of the existing 15 WA lower house electorates, and Burt is also notionally Liberal.

    First, we head to the Labor heartland of Fremantle, where the sitting member, Melissa Parke, is retiring, and the Greens are talking up their chances.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-01/safe-seat-of-fremantle-expected-to-become-election-battleground/7373730

  13. Good afternoon all,

    Can anyone confirm that Morrison actually stated that the poor will not like the budget or was that just a individual interpretation of a Morrison comment.

    Big difference I think.

    Thanks in advance.

    Cheers.

  14. LOL!

    In the era of risk-averse politics, where controlling the message is paramount, one species has multiplied: the invisible candidate.

    The Liberals’ prospect for Fremantle, Sherry Sufi, would not be interviewed.

    The WA Liberal Party policy chairman was first approached about a month ago for an interview, but after numerous phone conversations, emails and texts, the party has instead put up West Australian senator Chris Back to tell the public what Mr Sufi stands for.

  15. Scott Morrison is a Hillsong-type ‘christian’ who somehow reads the gospels’ key themes as ‘Every man for himself’; ‘God rewards the selfish and bigoted with wealth’; ‘the poor deserve to be poor and should receive our contempt and no help because they obviously aren’t pious enough’; ‘your piety can be judged by how much you donate to out happy clappy church and how much pyramid selling of our merchandise you do’ (or how much your government gives to us after we donate to them). It is horrible that this US virus has got into the LNP. I preferred it when they were mainstream WASPs – CoE, Presbyterian and Anglican. The DLP micks, Calvinists and born again loons running the show are much scarier.

  17. MTBW @ #709 Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 2:35 pm

    vote1julia
    I am with you!
    Absolutely boring drivel but I guess some on here have nothing else to talk about.
    Will they not take preferences to Labor from the Greens?

    I feel sure that Labor would be more than happy to collect preferences from the LNP!

    😉

  20. Yup, Sco-Mo is going to give tax cuts to the well-off as an investment in growth. Everything he said in this interview suggests this is going to be a nasty budget. I wonder if Malcolm’s even seen it yet.

  22. PLAYER ONE – Sco-Mo says that Victoria isn’t getting $1 billion. Does he seriously think that will help the libs at the next election in Victoria? What a dolt.

  23. K17:

    I’m sure Turnbull is okay with everything in the budget. After all he supported their 2014 budget.

  25. K17

    PLAYER ONE – Sco-Mo says that Victoria isn’t getting $1 billion. Does he seriously think that will help the libs at the next election in Victoria? What a dolt.

    Another example of the “Mirabella” school of negative pork barreling?

  28. MTBW @ #724 Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 3:28 pm

    don
    I very much doubt that that will happen

    I see no reason why not. Certainly it is unlikely that the LNP would ever preference Labor on their HTV cards, but I can certainly see leakage to Labor from LNP voters in a three cornered contest between, say, LNP, Greens, and Labor.

    The Greens might be seen as a bridge too far in that particular case!

  30. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN @ #684 Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 1:33 pm

    JUST ME – Soaking the poor in this budget, particularly after the 2014 budget, is obviously nuts, because the electorate will not stand for it. But I have not doubt Morrison is quite capable of delivering such a budget (and boasting about it) because HE is totally nuts. A prosperity bible happy-clapping egomaniac. He’s going to wear his brutality as a badge of honour while our chickenhearted PM stands by and watches his Prime Ministership head for the S-Bend. Bring on Tuesday. I can’t wait. This is going to be a gas.

    Morrison is one of the most disturbing ministers of the Abbott era. Right down there with Dutton for people who should not be allowed anywhere near real power.

    Going to be an interesting budget, and delivery of same.

  34. Gee. Scomo totally rattled over the subs questions. I didn’t hear that stuff about the poor not liking the budget, but ScoMo sure made it sound like the only people he thought contributed anything to this country were middle class and above people.

  35. Steve777 @ #693 Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 2:00 pm

    The ‘warm wave’ continues in Sydney. It’s very warm and windy in Sydney’s West, with temps in the high 20s. Penrith (55km West of Sydney CBD) is on 29.4, a degree above its old record (data since 1995).

    Every month so far this year has been around 2 degrees above average in my neighbourhood. Add in the very low rainfall for those months, but still high humidity, and it’s air-con city.

  36. When I read from several sources that the subs are overpriced, I wonder how the Coalition can say “live within your means” with a straight face. It seems they didn’t get around to setting a budget for the purchases.
    In the current financial situation, a cautious householder would decide to buy fewer units with an option for more later on, but it seems the Coalition had a rush of blood to the head, labelled “save South Australia and Prissy Pyne” and just as they did with the TPP, they agreed to everything and damn the consequences.

    And it seems that ScoMo has adopted the phrase “peer review” because in this case he thinks it’s useful. 😀

  38. Re subs: defence spending is exempt from any need to ‘live within our means’, budget emergencies or ending of the age of entitlement. While right-wingers hate spending on health, education and especially social welfare (except strategically to garner votes), they firmly believe that we should spend more on the military and its hardware.

  39. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-01/herpes-to-eradicate-carp-in-murray-river-pyne-says/7373736

    Scientists at the CSIRO have spent years testing the virus in “the world’s most sophisticated high containment facility”, to determine whether it can effectively reduce carp numbers without harming other species.

    “It causes high death rates in common carp and in the ornamental koi carp,” the CSIRO website said.
    “No other species of fish, including goldfish, are known to be affected by the virus.”

    The virus first emerged in Israel in 1998, and rapidly spread across Europe.

  40. Fracking of shale oil fields in the US is causing a global surge of a gas that causes climate change and creates dangerous air pollution, according to new research.

    Levels of ethane in the atmosphere had been falling since the 1980s, but in 2010 a sensor in Europe picked up a surprise increase.

    The boom of fracking, a controversial process used to recover gas from within shale by fracturing the rocks, in the United States was viewed as the prime suspect.

    Now a single oil and gas field in North Dakota and Montana, the Bakken Formation, has been found to be emitting about 250,000 tons of the gas – about two per cent of the total produced worldwide.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/fracking-in-the-us-causing-global-surge-in-dangerous-gas-scientists-find-a7006311.html

  41. The Liberals appear to be buzzing around the DCNS Submarine contract like blow flies scouting a piece of meat in which to lay their maggots. Ms Defence Minister’s husband being the first cab off the rank before the ink was dry on the contract.

  42. Just Me @ #735 Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 3:47 pm

    Steve777 @ #693 Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 2:00 pm

    The ‘warm wave’ continues in Sydney. It’s very warm and windy in Sydney’s West, with temps in the high 20s. Penrith (55km West of Sydney CBD) is on 29.4, a degree above its old record (data since 1995).

    Every month so far this year has been around 2 degrees above average in my neighbourhood. Add in the very low rainfall for those months, but still high humidity, and it’s air-con city.

    It is cooler today, but yesterday it was 25.5 deg out my way when I went shopping.
    It seems the air-conditioning at the shopping centre is set by the calendar and not the thermometer. It was just oppressively hot and humid in the shops I entered with the heater apparently on the winter setting. I could not get out of there fast enough. 🙁
    What is it with these people? Apart from anything else it was costing them money.

  43. Just to clarify, I’ve watched that interview and Morrison didn’t say the words attributed to him about the poor not liking it. Where was that tweet quoted from?

  46. Bemused @ 10.30.

    Ah LGH it was, was it? I lost track of detail in the deluge of pathetic drivel. A sad case.

  49. Where was that tweet quoted from?

    This is why I get annoyed at guytaur’s indiscriminate posting of tweets by people you’ve never heard of. Normally they’re just crap tweeted to get retweets rather than inform.

Comments Page 15 of 26
1 … 14 15 16 … 26

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *