Double dissolution election (maybe) minus nine weeks

To tide us over through a quiet spot, a closer look at the Australian National University’s latest survey on issues of public concern.

We’re about half-way between the weekly BludgerTrack and when I’m anticipating the next opinion poll, this being the period of pre-budget calm before the storm, and a new thread is wanted. So I’ve decided to hang this one off the latest ANUpoll survey, an exercise conducted by the Australian National University two or three times a year to gauge the public mood on a specific area of public policy, and track the salience of various issues over time. The subject of the latest instalment, which was conducted by phone from a sample of 1200 in February and March, is tax and equity in Australia. Among various findings on tax that would be familiar from those who follow Essential Research, the report also finds support for increased spending on social services at its highest level since the series began in 1987. The report also finds that, in spite of everything, 56% consider the existing system “moderately fair”, on top of another 4% for “very fair”, while 22% rate it “not too fair” and 18% “not at all fair”.

The survey also features regular questions in which respondents are asked to name the first and second most important political problems, out of a list that presently includes 27 options. To make this easier to interpret, I’ve condensed results into various categories, which are hopefully generally self-explanatory (particularly economy/budget, environment and better government – security/external covers wars, terrorism, defence and immigration, while services covers health and education and such). The progress of these results since 2008 is shown in the chart below.

2016-04-30-anupoll

From which a number of points are clearly worth noting. Concern about service provision mounted to giddy heights after the 2014 budget, but promptly returned to normal after Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister. The combined result for the various economic issues is at a low point in the latest survey, having peaked in the years immediately following the global financial crisis. Security/external and crime/society, which are largely conservative concerns, are on an upward trend. “Better government”, I’m guessing, was a popular response among Coalition supporters while Labor was in power, but is not a correspondingly popular choice for Labor voters now it’s the Coalition’s turn.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,251 comments on “Double dissolution election (maybe) minus nine weeks”

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  1. Scott Bales Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 4:26 pm

    LNP still doesn’t get it.

    Boring beats Strong any day of the week. It’s why Anastasia beat Cambell.

    It’s why Shorten beat Abbott

    It’s why Shorten is beating Turnbull.

    It’s why Daniel Andrews is beating everybody.

    After the shitshow that is Auspol iin recent years, boring is good.

    Let’s face it, Howard won four elections. You don’t need charisma to win elections.

  2. Scott @ 4.26

    Maybe not boring as much as dependable. Or better yet, stable.

    I continue to be astonished that the Labor policy announcements to date regarding winding back tax concessions are declared by the commentariat to be courageous, etc. I agree with them and don’t think they should go any further. But they are certainly not courageous. It just shows how far the cause of obvious common sense tax reform has been debased by political grandstanding.

    Bowen and Shorten are deliberately underplaying the criticisms. And it’s working. Especially as Turnbull wastes his political capital fighting an absurd battle against winding back the excesses of negative gearing.

  3. C@tmomma @ #741 Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 4:25 pm

    The Liberals appear to be buzzing around the DCNS Submarine contract like blow flies scouting a piece of meat in which to lay their maggots. Ms Defence Minister’s husband being the first cab off the rank before the ink was dry on the contract.

    It’s the East-West link on high powered steroids.

  4. Why should ‘government spending as a share of the Economy reduce, it must!’, as Scott Morrison says?

  5. Lol, Scott Morrison proudly proclaiming that the government isn’t increasing the Deficit. BS Artist on steroids.

  6. Why should ‘government spending as a share of the Economy reduce, it must!’, as Scott Morrison says?

    Because it feeds their rhetoric of Labor high taxing big spenders. Stutchbury spent most of his time on Insiders this morning trying to reinforce exactly that point.

  7. bemused @ #748 Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 4:37 pm

    pritu @ #746 Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 4:32 pm

    Bemused @ 10.30.
    Ah LGH it was, was it? I lost track of detail in the deluge of pathetic drivel. A sad case.

    I couldn’t be bothered even reading it let alone responding. Terrible stuff.

    I tried to read a little last night because I thought that, as some people had responded, there might be some substance. Unfortunately, it was unintelligible gunk of the most incomprehensible kind. Track pad slide stuff.

  8. COTMOMMA – Did you notice that Scott said labor would be lifting taxes to pay for its spending commitments BUT they were unfunded. It’s one or the other Scottie Baby.

  9. How bloody funny is that!?! Scott Morrison criticising the Victorian government for ‘not spending $1 Billion on the East West Link’. A criticism, by the guy who has increased his government’s Deficit, of a government who has projected a $9 Billion Surplus!

  10. Given that the budget is in deficit, can anyone provide a list of what expenditure items are funded and which aren’t funded?
    No?
    Didn’t think so.
    It is just more nonsense like the even more nonsensical ‘fully costed’.

  11. C@tmomma @ #766 Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 5:12 pm

    ‘You don’t get the Budget back to Surplus by increasing taxes’ !?!

    It is a simple accounting identity.
    Revenue – Expenditure = Surplus/Deficit.

    If revenue > expenditure then surplus
    If revenue < expenditure the deficit
    Yo can arrive at the required end result by varying either or both expenditure and revenue.
    Why is there such a fetish about these simple facts?

  12. Noticed a comment about Sherry Sufi as the lib candidate for the seat of Fremantle.

    Sherry Sufi regularly gets articles up on the remains of the good? old Menzies House website.

  13. For an Economy just experiencing it’s first deflationary Cost Of Living figure last week, Scott Morrison is placing a lot of eggs in the ‘Growth and Jobs’ basket.

  14. bemused,
    Why does Scott Morrison have an Austerity fetish? Why does he believe that it is the job of government to lay waste to revenue streams?

  15. C@tmomma @ #773 Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 5:23 pm

    bemused,
    Why does Scott Morrison have an Austerity fetish? Why does he believe that it is the job of government to lay waste to revenue streams?

    An article of faith among Tories that all government expenditure, except for defence and a limited number of other items is intrinsically evil.

  16. lizzie
    Carp constitute 95% of the Murray Darling Basin fish biomass. If that suddenly goes to, say, 5%, the consequences could well be devastating for, say, Murray Cod. Quite unpredictable consequences, IMO.
    I can remember the pellucid waters of many a biodiversity rich water body pre-carp.
    It would be nice to think that these are retrievable.

  17. Sherry Sufi regularly gets articles up on the remains of the good? old Menzies House website.

    He is the Liberal party’s director of policy according to the ABC article.

    Interestingly of the three candidates profiled for Fremantle, only the Labor candidate comes from a worker’s background. Yes he’s an MUA employee, but only for the last year, the previous 30 being as a tradie on the wharf.

    The Liberal candidate is a hack and the Green candidate is a lawyer.

  18. Yesterday Sheridan wrote this. At the most basic level it is about Sheridan’s ally Abbott promoting Japanese subs versus Turnbull buying French subs. Other Murdoch writers are not happy either. Abbott may yet provide his helpful opinion on subs during the election campaign.

    Australia’s standing in Japan, our most important geo-strategic partner in Asia, is deeply diminished as a result of the decision to reject its offer to build 12 new submarines for us.

    On Monday the Turnbull government notified Tokyo, and on Tuesday it announced the successful bidder was the French firm DCNS.

    Japanese opinion of us, elite as well as public opinion, is bruised, tender and bitter as a result.

    Many Japanese believe Malcolm Turnbull kowtowed to the Chinese, folding under their unsubtle pressure. The Japanese also believe they were collateral damage in Turnbull’s intense hostility to Japan’s friend, Tony Abbott. These views may be completely unjustified but they are widespread.

    Some influential Japanese are even starting to publicly question Australia’s reliability as a strategic partner. There is a sense of Australia not being altogether a serious country.

    That important Japanese are saying these things in public ought to give Canberra the most serious pause for reflection.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/greg-sheridan/japan-sees-chinese-hand-in-decision-to-overlook-soryu/news-story/23c0bd008b06d77b5f3e8bdeee95265a

  19. C@tmummy
    Real disposable income has dropped for seven quarters in a row.
    The deflation thing is the -0.2% and I think that this may refer to the general value of money. I do not know. I am certain that some Greens economist can light the way on this one.

  20. citizen
    There is no doubt that the Abbott/Turnbull two-step has damaged relations with Japan. There is no doubt that the resurgent ultra-national militarist right was using Abbott as a stalking horse. Abbott walked straight into it.
    But the Liberals gave Abe the sucker punch.
    There is no doubt that the Japanese have a sort of manic fear of China. This could have something to do with the fact that they murdered, literally, millions of them in their imperial bastardry phase.
    IMO, while C5631 has pride of place in Yasukuni Shrine, and while Japanese ministers keep going to Yasukuni Shrine to worship the spirit of war criminals, the Japanese Government can go and get fucked with its hurt feelings.

  21. Boerwar,
    Boerwar @ #782 Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 5:33 pm

    C@tmummy
    Real disposable income has dropped for seven quarters in a row.
    The deflation thing is the -0.2% and I think that this may refer to the general value of money. I do not know. I am certain that some Greens economist can light the way on this one.

    So this magical ‘Jobs and Growth’ creation because the Liberals are all that and as envisaged by Morrison,s going to come from where if peoples’ disposable income has been falling for nigh on 2 years!?!

  22. C@t
    The economic plan is pretty well the same for both Labor and Greens: add to the population by large net migration.
    This skins current Australian inhabitants but creates the illusion of growth by way of building houses and units and filling them with consumerist crud.
    The Greens at least have a point of difference. They are gazumping both Liberal and Labor by encouraging millions of refugees to create ‘demand’ in Australia.

  23. C@t
    Have you considered that Martin might just be independent and assessing things based on his knowledge, experience and expertise?

  24. Player One,
    “Another example of the “Mirabella” school of negative pork barrelling?”
    Would that be “krop” barrelling?

  25. Boerwar
    Boerwar
    Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 5:45 pm
    C@t

    The economic plan is pretty well the same for both Labor and Greens: add to the population by large net migration.
    This skins current Australian inhabitants but creates the illusion of growth by way of building houses and units and filling them with consumerist crud.

    Yep it was the total basis of effing Abbott and HoJo’s great big promise to create a million or two jobs in however many years. Population growth would see to it without the pricks doing a thing about the economy.

  26. B.C.

    One of the graphs is “Proportion of people in occupations who negatively gear”.

    The only occupation I can see listed is Nurses, and it shows that over 90% of Nurses do not negatively gear. And for those few that do, their average tax benefit is a whopping $229.

    Compare that with doctors who negatively gear at about three times the rate of Nurses, and who get a benefit of between $3000 and $4000!

  27. lizzid
    lol
    The first burst of calici certainly created a stench problem. I imagine that hundreds of thousands (?) of tons of rotting carp might do the same for the pristine waters of the MDB.

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