The only new poll this week was the weekly Essential Research, owing to the poll glut last week and the Anzac Day public holiday on Monday. The Essential result was an eye-opener, with the normally sedate series lurching two points in favour of Labor, who have opened up a 52-48 lead. The primary votes are Coalition 40% (down two), Labor 39% (up three) and Greens 10% (down one). Other questions found 40% approving of a double dissolution election, up one from two weeks ago, with opposition up four to 28%; 42% expecting the Coalition to win compared with 28% for Labor; 35% saying Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership has made them more likely to vote Coalition, compared with 23% for less likely; and 67% saying they would view their vote as one in favour of the party they supported, compared with 21% saying it would be against the party they opposed. On next week’s budget, respondents anticipated it would be good for business and the well off, bad for everyone else, and neutral for the economy overall. The poll also found that 45% would sooner see Helen Clark as secretary-general of the United Nations compared with 21% for Kevin Rudd.
Single Essential Research results tend not to knock the BludgerTrack poll aggregate off its axis, but this result was forceful enough to drive a half-point shift on two-party preferred, which tips the balance in favour of Labor. However, the gains from last week to this have tended to be concentrated in states where they are of little use to Labor on the seat projection, which only ticks one point in their favour through a gain in New South Wales, leaving the Coalition with the barest possible absolute majority. That would be a little less bare if I started crediting Clive Palmer’s seat of Fairfax as a Liberal National Party gain, which I really should have been doing since a Galaxy poll of the seat in January credited Palmer with 2% of the vote. I’ll implement that one next week. Nothing new this week on the leadership ratings.
Other news:
• The WA Liberal Party’s state council has endorsed Matt O’Sullivan as the party’s candidate for the new seat of Burt in the southern suburbs of Perth, formalising its overturning of a local party ballot three weeks ago. O’Sullivan is closely identified with mining magnate Andrew Forrest, as the chief operating officer of his GenerationOne indigenous youth employment scheme. The earlier ballot was won by Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor who had backing from the Christian Right. Storer defeated O’Sullivan with 13 votes out of an eligible 25, but the state council ruled three weeks ago that the number of preselectors was insufficient, and that it would take matters into its own hands.
• The Central Western Daily lists four candidates for Saturday’s Nationals preselection in the rural New South Wales seat of Calare, to be vacated at the election by John Cobb: Andrew Gee, the state member for Orange; Alison Conn, a Wellington councillor; Sam Farraway, owner of the Hertz franchise in Bathurst; and Scott Munro, a butcher and Orange councillor.
• The Blue Mountains Gazette last week reported that a ReachTEL poll conducted on April 19 for the NSW Teachers Federation had Liberal and Labor tied in the Blue Mountains seat of Macquarie, which Louise Markus holds for the Liberals on a margin of 4.5%. Markus has secured the Liberal preselection for the seat after the withdrawal of a challenge by Sarah Richards, a local party branch president.
• It escaped my notice four weeks ago that The Australian had ReachTEL results commissioned by the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union from the Liberal-held Adelaide seats of Hindmarsh and Sturt. Results in the report are incomplete, but they appear to credit Christopher Pyne with a 5% margin in Sturt, down from 10.1% at the 2013 election, and also have the Liberals leading in the difficult seat of Hindmarsh. Only modest support was recorded for the Nick Xenophon Team, at 14.5% and 11% before exclusion of the undecided. A good deal has happened in the month since the poll was conducted, with Coalition support continuing to plummet nationally, and the government this week seeking to staunch the flow in South Australia specifically by committing to have the $52 billion submarine construction project built in the state. I have also obtained ReachTEL polling conducted early last month for The Australia Institute, which has the Nick Xenophon Team’s support in South Australia at 16.1% in the House of Representatives and 24.8% in the Senate – keeping in mind that polls like this have form in overstating the distinctions between House and Senate results (or at least, they did before the Senate vote went haywire in 2013). There are also Queensland results inclusive of the parties of Clive Palmer, Glen Lazarus, Nick Xenophon and Jacqui Lambie, which have their Senate support ranging from 1.6% (Lambie) to 3.4% (Xenophon).
And what we really all want is for James Ashby to ensnare Christopher Pyne, eh?
[
C@tmomma
Friday, April 29, 2016 at 8:21 pm
…
If anyone can decipher what Laundy was on about I would really appreciate it.
]
If your running a business; the cost of money (interest) is tax deductible. Owning rental properties along with other assets is a possible business. Rich people run businesses.
I think that was the argument
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN @ #800 Friday, April 29, 2016 at 8:33 pm
I’d love to see a few of those involved in all of this do some jail time.
Mind you Mr Plod seem to be be in slow motion, but the final outcome of it all ?
Three or four lashes with a wet lettuce?
Hard to have much confidence.
victoria
With the Slogan Bogan having “slept” so long with the AFP and the links he would have forged os it coincidence that at a time like this the Ashby crap is on the go again and it seems heating up ?
ajm @ 799,
I hope so. However you know what the Lieberals are like. They will repeat something long enough and loud enough for some people, maybe enough, to be convinced.
[FMD. So we peasants are not good enough for The Magnificence. Too stupid and vapid to realise his greatness. ]
Someone here, I wish I could remember who for the proper credit, once observed that Turnbull is the type that shows up often in transactional situations, wows the room, ‘closes the deal’ and what actually happens is someone else’s problem. Essentially like a door to door salesperson without cooling off or refund periods.
I assume Coorey was in awe of ‘programmatic specificity’ and amazed and openly praising Gillard and her ministers for their detailed, nuance policy, and never ever got caught up in the moronic ‘carbon tax’ side show for idiots.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN @ #800 Friday, April 29, 2016 at 8:33 pm
His employer may have had some input to his timing. She has a few old scores to settle.
Haven’t read the Coorey but the bits qhoted here suggest it is quite forlorn. “Nuance and detail” is exactly what Turnbull has lacked. Thought bubbles thrown out one day and withdrawn the next… Apparently we are to trust his lazy common sense.
Poroti
It is all rather curious. Brough is resigning at election, so curious as to why Ashby wants to clear his name.
Laundy is another ultra rich Lib. Hoteliers. Not well liked by some in this electorate, but unknown to most.
At this end of the electorate, Angelo Tsirekos is a much respected mayor. He is standing for ALP pre-selection – not sure when the ballot is.
Sky News Australia
21m21 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
.@chriskkenny says border protection and climate policy will be THE issues this campaign #viewpoint http://snpy.tv/1UlfdsU
frednk @ #802 Friday, April 29, 2016 at 8:36 pm
Only rich people could come up with that argument by way of an attack. However, it was something I noted back when Turnbull began arguing his case against Labor’s NG policy that he kept referring to people and their businesses. Except then he was saying that they WOULDN’T be able to behave as they do now with the current NG policy settings!
Funny what the realisation that it is actually the little people that are hurting with the current policy that may be the ones to tip his government out and so he has gone into reverse to make his Anti NG argument appeal to them.
What a cynical bunch of Tories they are!
The theory that Abbott is pulling strings in the AFP is a nice one poroti. Hopefully Pyne is lined up for the campaign 😉
victoria @ #811 Friday, April 29, 2016 at 8:43 pm
……………………………
So……..Unions Boo!
Is so last month ?
Lets see how many time the fear theme changes 🙂
jenauthor @ #810 Friday, April 29, 2016 at 8:42 pm
Pre-selection still not decided?
Well if I ever had any doubts about NSW ALP being stupid, they are now resolved.
Victoria has had the candidates all resolved for some months now.
Speaking of which has Wyatt Roy been out and about of late?
Soo… Manus/ border protection is falling apart and the Great Barrier Reef is dying because of tory failure or negilence and they want to make these isssues *THE* issues of the election.
Pour the kool aid. Schooners of the stuff and get a boat race going.
Thank God, Micallef’s back just in time for the DD
[Well if I ever had any doubts about NSW ALP being stupid, they are now resolved.
Victoria has had the candidates all resolved for some months now.]
And briefly comes close to being the only smart person in the WA branch and even they are pretty well setup, with some excellent candidates. I have noticed at least one clown in a winnable marginal, but for WA Labor just one is a massive improvement.
I think someone here was singing the praise of failed team carpenter coach Rita Saffioti this morning, if it was you briefly it puts a first question mark against your otherwise excellent judgement.
Vic, does Kenny think Abbott is still PM? Good luck to them. This mob are too worried about “nuance” to control an agenda 🙂
Turnbull giving ‘nuance and detail’? What crap! We’ve had policies popping into then out of existence like virtual quantum particles; we had everything on the tax table, to be removed as different groups got upset. Tax was the big thing, then it was ‘union thugs’. The ABCC was all that will stand between us and economic ruin. In between, there was some vacuous blathering about ‘agility’ and ‘innovation’.
Now we’re talking about…boats and carbon tax horror. The Liberals are now gearing up with their media allies for a traditional Coalition scare campaign, Turnbull as Abbott-lite, but without the virtue of brevity.
Well, why would it be otherwise? What can the Government do? Campaign on its record? Hardly. Mabe campaign on its plans for Australia’s future. No, they’re ballot box poison (refer the 2014 Budget). So it’s FUD all the way, again.
Question
He knows Turnbull is PM cos he will be interviewing him…….
Sky News Australia
51m51 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
.@chriskkenny joined by @TurnbullMalcolm this Sunday 8pm AEST #Viewpoint http://snpy.tv/1NZu3yH
[Soo… Manus/ border protection is falling apart and the Great Barrier Reef is dying because of tory failure or negilence and they want to make these isssues *THE* issues of the election.]
I honestly think climate change is a loser for the libs, one they think is a winner, sweet. There are very few idiots these days who still fall for the idiotic rubbish the LNP idiot deniers use.
On the other hand, it seems there are lots of Australians really comfortable and happy with murder, rape and physical and mental abuse of non-anglos, by our Government and those paid by our Government, so i’m not sure border protection isn’t a net plus for the LNP.
Vic, but that’s not until Sunday, THE issue of the campaign will have changed by then.
Juicy tips and budget leaks seemed to have dried up as well.
Nuanced it the latest….
Only a matter of time until Gen Wenck is involved. Again.
Question
Too true
Question
Not so much “pulling strings” but you know how “networking” goes. Abbott should have made more than a few connections and heaven forbid over a cleansing ale he mentioned a few things he’d like to see happen.
Anyway, +1 that it would be oh so good to see Pyne in the cross hairs.
@playerone
Dont play ignorance..
You said that police still need warrent what I posted clearly says otherwise, you are following what the justice department has said which is defending the court.
Oh, I’m sure it’s all above board poroti… I wish them well 🙂
pedant @ Friday, April 29, 2016 at 8:00 pm
You’ll note I said I’m liking her at the moment. Her letter deserved praise and I gave it.
[Juicy tips and budget leaks seemed to have dried up as well.
Nuanced it the latest….
Only a matter of time until Gen Wenck is involved. Again.
]
My emails today suggested the budget gets locked down at noon on Sunday, but until then every can and is moving like a nightclub when you’ve had way too much too drink.
The noon Sunday deadline will probably then require a couple of cigars, some extra Cayman islands investments and bottle of wine that costs more than the average Australian house. They would have learned public celebration after delivery of the budget is uncool.
The conservatives/ radical right in the anglophone world really do hate evidence-base policy:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/17/britains-scientists-must-not-be-gagged?CMP=share_btn_tw
Nathan Rees told her exactly what she was getting into, and she dove in head-first.
zoidlord @ #828 Friday, April 29, 2016 at 9:05 pm
You have misread the article.
[You’ll note I said I’m liking her at the moment. Her letter deserved praise and I gave it.]
There are far to many that need to put politicians into a white hat or a black hat, and are mentally and maturity ill-equipped to either sense grey or to allow facts to switch the hat. Like with the Rudd Gillard wars when their simple little minds are forced to move someone from a white hat to a black hat, and they lack any shade between, the pain of the situation causes all sorts of irrationality and hate.
Douglas and Milko @ #832 Friday, April 29, 2016 at 9:27 pm
They do ideology with large dollops of vested interests.
For breakfast, lunch and dinner and every chance in between.
It is also their utter Achilles heel, which costs them and us all over and over again.
Plus it fools too many of ordinary people far too much of the time.
Tug ya forelock as get in step, ya all.
First dog is a good one. Apologies if already posted.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/ng-interactive/2016/apr/29/youre-never-more-than-30-minutes-away-from-the-most-exciting-time-to-be-an-australian
Never been a more exciting time to do a scare campaign on carbon pricing.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-has-started-early-20160429-gohx1z.html
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
.@chriskkenny says border protection and climate policy will be THE issues this campaign #viewpoint http://snpy.tv/1UlfdsU
Given that it is still over two months until the (presumed) election, THE issues of the campaign have probably not even been mentioned yet.
[Never been a more exciting time to do a scare campaign on carbon pricing.]
If I was Malcolm I’d be doing a soft on terror boat people hugging scare campaign.
Re the occasional references to Wenck: of course in Downfall we only see that he didn’t break through to Berlin as Hitler was hoping/fantasising, but what he did achieve was to keep the lines to the west open for a few days so that people could get captured by the Yanks rather than by the Russians. I’m wondering what analogous act of heroism someone could do for the Libs as they undergo their Downfall.
True.
But it may blow up big time as well.
Election time is the ideal, almost only time to put a blowtorch on the belly of the body politic and in the AS situation, PNG in particular, who knows how and if that gets ‘resolved’.
Add in PotatoHeads lack of competence and it gets worse.
What could go wrong ?
“Events dear boy, events”
WWP,
For a while there, under our new Mal-nificence, many would point to how, if nothing else, the “tone” had improved. He can try… It won’t work… He’s no Abbott.
This sounds interesting….
Dr Sally
Dr Sally – @slsandpet
@mackaysuzie Check out the SMH tomorrow. I have it on good advice an MP is about to get a bollocking
11:49 PM – 28 Apr 2016
1 LIKE
[WWP,
For a while there, under our new Mal-nificence, many would point to how, if nothing else, the “tone” had improved. He can try… It won’t work… He’s no Abbott.]
I agree, unless there is magic in the budget I think all else fails, I just think a boat people / soft on terror campaign is his best shot, and his least embarrassing loss.
I understand WWP.
I have run out of advice for Turbull, he seems to be the master of shooting himself in the feet. I’m surprised he can still walk.
Jack A Randa @ #841 Friday, April 29, 2016 at 10:04 pm
Isn’t the whole analogy ridiculous false hope and its use, sarcasm ?
The election is not *yet* won or lost, but the cats are well and truly amongst the pigeons.
All that sneering of Shorten might, might bite them in the bum?
Vic, going by the date, shouldn’t that story have come ot today?
I wonder if Labor could get away with saying that, if Turnbull’s cities plan has any good bits in it, they will shamelessly steal them, as Labor loves good ideas wherever they come from, and anyway, some of it is similar to stuff they’ve previously proposed.
Unlike some people who reject, on instinct, any idea that comes from the other side of politics, even if was previously their own proposal.
It does seem that it’s one (the only?) area left for Turnbull to be himself.
[I wonder if Labor could get away with saying that …]
They could highlight that Labor believes in public transport, in trains, and in communication that is essential too cities but also brings the regions and cities together, a real FTTP NBN, that Labor is not opposed to good Public/Private coinvestments but doesn’t believe that they are worth any price …
Take the core of the cities crap of Cayman’s Mal as always key labor and mock the rest.