Essential Research: 50-50

Another sedate result on voting intention from Essential Research, which finds more evidence of strong support for a royal commission into the banking sector.

This week’s fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research is once again at 50-50, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 42%, Labor up a point to 36%, and the Greens steady at 11%. Other findings:

• Essential conducted one of its occasional experiments where separate halves of the sample are offered different versions of the same question, in this case relating to a royal commission into the banking and financial services industry. The more straightforward version recorded 59% supportive and 15% opposed. The more elaborate version attributed the notion to Bill Shorten and noted the resistance of Malcolm Turnbull, and got 54% supportive and 21% opposed, with the partisan effect particularly pronounced in the case of Coalition voters.

• From five options on school funding, the most favoured involved a greater involvement for the federal government, with 49% in favour of it becoming the main funder of all schools and 27% opposed.

• Thirty-six per cent said kids these days have more opportunities than back in the day, against 30% for less opportunities and 21% for the same.

• Fifty-six per cent said retirees received too little support, versus 7% for too much and 24% for about right.

• Seventy-six per cent thought it harder for young people to buy a house than for their parents’ generation, and 55% thought it harder for them to find a job. The respective figures for easier were 7% and 17%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,061 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

Comments Page 5 of 22
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  3. fess

    paul Murray is not enamoured with Turnbull, but obviously someone within cabinet isnt either. This leak re the advertising had to come from there

  4. Every day this government does something inane.

    Can you imagine how a months and months election campaign is going to go when they can’t manage discipline from one day to the next now?

  11. So who leaked the govts post budget ad script to Sky?
    An Abbott loyalist obviously.
    That’s the other X factor in labor’s favour for the campaign – Abbott and his cronies doing to Turnbull what Rudd did to Gillard in 2010.
    Whiteanting.

  12. CTar1,

    Karen MacNamara not looking happy in Parliament today.
    And with good reason. Her arse is grass.
    No doubt that will be cheering C@tmomma up.

    Kinda sorta. I’m actually a resident of the seat of Robertson, represented by the bete noir of Alan Jones, Lucy Wicks. And, with such an ‘endorsement’ I’d say her time sitting on the Green leather might be coming to an abrupt end too!

    Plus, the candidates chosen by Labor are top drawer. The Chief Pharmacist of Wyong Hospital to run in Dobell and a Doctor’s Wife in Robertson. A real one! However she has also done a lot of good work in the local community with our Indigenous young people especially.

    We are hopeful but not over confident. The seats definitely have to be won from the Liberals.

  13. The Greens are preferencing the Liberal Party candidate in Batman. A person who, as Deputy Mayor of Darebin Council made sexist and bigoted remarks about a Labor Councillor.

    The Greens are grubs.

  15. C@tmomma
    Tuesday, April 19, 2016 at 10:16 pm
    The Greens are preferencing the Liberal Party candidate in Batman. A person who, as Deputy Mayor of Darebin Council made sexist and bigoted remarks about a Labor Councillor.

    The Greens are grubs.

    Your source for that? Link?

  16. The Greens are preferencing the Liberal Party candidate in Batman. A person who, as Deputy Mayor of Darebin Council made sexist and bigoted remarks about a Labor Councillor.

    Is that true?

  20. On Monday Sky News revealed the government will launch a post-budget advertising campaign promoting $16 billion in savings over four years .

    As Marius Benson said this morning about this, it’s small beer.
    $4B per year out of a federal Budget of about $400B is only 1%!

  21. geoffrey
    Tuesday, April 19, 2016 at 10:20 pm
    victoria

    can you cut and paste that australian article? the site has a subscriber paywall

    just put the text below into an incognito window, and click on the link when it appears. Do that for all the Australian links behind a paywall.

    jack-the-insider-poll-result-down-to-who-makes-least-mistakes

  22. geoffrey

    Poll result down to who makes least mistakes 18 comments | Permalink
    The great Hollywood detective character, Charlie Chan, would regard the 2 July election as posing three ‘possibility’ and if realised, two of those ‘possibility’ would draw the curtain on Malcolm Turnbull’s political career.
    The first possibility is the Turnbull government wins the election with a reduced majority.
    A Labor victory would see the Prime Minister wander off into the sunset, a pariah within his own party, a man who wanted to crash through but could only crash. Less likely but still possible is the prospect of a hung parliament with the Coalition turfed out and having to beg for the crossbenchers’ support to form a government.
    The inscrutable detective, lampooned in the 1960s sitcom Get Smart as the character Harry Hoo, would have also considered a fourth possibility: the Coalition would achieve the status quo or better in the Lower House but given the large swing towards the Coalition under Tony Abbott at the 2013 election, that seems unlikely.
    That the possibility of a Labor win is being seriously contemplated after the 2013 landslide Coalition win under Tony Abbott means things have gone horribly wrong for the government and Malcolm Turnbull is responsible for a good deal of the mess.
    Full column here.

  24. confessions,

    Is that true?
    Didn’t Kroger say that the Liberals in Victoria were in talks with The Greens to swap preferences and/or to put The Greens candidate before Labor on their HTV?

  25. The Greens are “preferencing” the Libs in Batman, C@t? Have they printed HTVs and started to circulate them, published ads in papers, or has someone just said something off the cuff, 7 weeks before the election happens? And even if it becomes official, they can’t direct preferences no matter how much party officials might like to think they can – and the Greens less so than other parties whose voters are more sheep-like. Mind you, depending on who the “Libs” have selected, it could be someone to the left of Feeney and who appeals to the Green voters of Coburg North, Brunswick and Preston more than right-wing-machine-man David. Or not.

  26. I am in the electorate of Batman. This is definitively not going to happen: I haven’t heard anything about it, nor has it been reported in the media. I don’t know what c@t is talking about.

  27. I read the JTI article. Apart from a very broad and ambiguous comment, I saw nothing to actually say that the Greens were preferencing the Liberal candidate over Batman (not that that would help in that electorate).

  28. C@t, the only media speculation about Greens preferences is issuing open tickets in ALP marginal seats. Is this what you’re talking about instead?

  29. And C@t Oliver Walsh is not the Illibs’ candidate for Batman. According to the Age 5 hours ago, he was thinking of nominating but has changed his mind – and has been sacked as Dep Mayor over his “Fat Nat” comment. You really are quick to leap to doom-laden conclusions. I’m prepared to bet $10 on Feeney holding his seat. Want to bet against him?

  31. I’m confused. What on earth does that article David Feeney linked to on Twitter have to do with Greens preferencing arrangements?

    I’m still yet to see a shred of evidence that the Greens are intending to preference the Liberals for Labor in any seat at all.

  32. Airlines,
    So The Greens are not thinking about preferencing the Liberal candidate before the Labor candidate in Batman on their HTVs? Or on the other hand, are they considering an Open Ticket HTV in Batman?
    What are the discussions that Kroger keeps talking about all about then?

  33. C@t, 10:38pm

    No, they are not thinking about preferencing the Liberals before Labor on their Batman HTVs. There is a potential for there to be an open ticket – though (as much as I am in favour of them) I doubt it as of now.

    Kroger’s discussions, I believe, relate to seats that are currently suburban ALP-Liberal marginal: Chisolm, Deakin, Corangamite etc. These seats are not Batman, and Batman is definitely not considered under the same guise as the above seats are.

  34. bemused,
    C@tmomma you have seized on mere speculation and reported it as fact.

    Normally I AM more circumspect, however, is it not the case that The Greens have targeted Wills and Batman as potential gains? Therefore, how do they expect to get there if not with Liberal preferences?

  36. This is whole article

    The great Hollywood detective character, Charlie Chan, would regard the 2 July election as posing three ‘possibility’ and if realised, two of those ‘possibility’ would draw the curtain on Malcolm Turnbull’s political career.

    The first possibility is the Turnbull government wins the election with a reduced majority.

    A Labor victory would see the Prime Minister wander off into the sunset, a pariah within his own party, a man who wanted to crash through but could only crash. Less likely but still possible is the prospect of a hung parliament with the Coalition turfed out and having to beg for the crossbenchers’ support to form a government.

    The inscrutable detective, lampooned in the 1960s sitcom Get Smart as the character Harry Hoo, would have also considered a fourth possibility: the Coalition would achieve the status quo or better in the Lower House but given the large swing towards the Coalition under Tony Abbott at the 2013 election, that seems unlikely.

    That the possibility of a Labor win is being seriously contemplated after the 2013 landslide Coalition win under Tony Abbott means things have gone horribly wrong for the government and Malcolm Turnbull is responsible for a good deal of the mess.

    Elections determine the longevity or otherwise of political careers. It is Liberal Party tradition that leadership positions become vacant after every election and nominations called for. In the event of electoral victory, the nomination process is a bit of a triumphal giggle but in the wake of defeat, there are bitter recriminations with careers abruptly terminated.

    Turnbull has rolled the big fluffy dice on a double dissolution. It is a huge gamble predicated on winning more than 75 seats in the Lower House and a less hostile Senate which in itself seems a pipe dream. Turnbull’s personal ambitions are now one and the same as the objectives of his party. It is his way or the highway for them all.

    The Turnbull Government has used the Building and Construction Industry (Consequential and Transitional Provisions) Bill 2013 as the double dissolution trigger. While everyone accepts there are manifest problems and criminality within the construction unions, notably the CFMEU, my belief is the bill was never designed to pass through the Senate.

    It was merely the trigger or as Barnaby Joyce put it yesterday, it required the Senate to “load the gun” for a dissolution of both houses of parliament. My tip is the bill will never again see light of day. Regardless of the election outcome, it is doubtful the Turnbull Government will have a majority in a joint sitting of both houses to make the bill law. It will go the way of Bob Hawke’s Australia Card where Hawke used it to pull a DD in 1987. After being re-elected with a reduced majority, the bill quietly slipped into ephemera.

    The Turnbull Government still has control of the agenda, has a budget to release and announcements to make, not least of all who, where and how the $50 billion will be spent on Australia’s new submarine fleet. In the often odd politics of the Turnbull government, the budget has been given secondary status. Voters would understand this budget would not be of the fistful of dollars type but a budget doesn’t have to be a grab bag of giveaways. It can cast a narrative and set the tone for a government. As it stands, the government seems to regard the Budget as a necessary evil.

    For all the downside for Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition, Labor has a mountain to climb of Himalayan stature. It must win 23 seats to win government in its own right and this is made more difficult with Labor heartland seats being under assault from the Greens.

    Seats like Batman (David Feeney) which was once the safest Labor seat in the country, Sydney (Tanya Plibersek) and Grayndler (Anthony Albanese) are potentially in play and if the Liberals preference the Greens in inner city Melbourne and Sydney seats, possibly with Greens preferences flowing back to the Liberals in the outer suburbs, Labor’s task looks almost impossible.

    Nationals’ leader and Deputy Prime Minister, Barnaby Joyce, too, has the fight of his life on his hands against Tony Windsor in New England. With preferences from the Greens and Labor, Windsor only needs to poll around 35 per cent of the primary vote to get over the line. In 2007 and 2010, Windsor polled 62 per cent of the primary vote — almost identical numbers in both elections. A lot has changed since then, not least of all Windsor’s support for the Gillard minority government in 2010, but it seems unlikely that around half of Windsor’s vote will desert him since he last went to the people.

    Some, including the Political Editor at Sky News, David Speers, think a long campaign could be a positive for voters who will get the chance to examine the policies across the board, major parties and minor parties, too, and make their decision. That would be true in an ideal world but Australian federal politics is far from that and trivia, apocrypha, stumbles and bumbles become the media talking points for the day.

    With this in mind, Turnbull’s greatest asset is Labor leader, Bill Shorten. For the first two years in the job Shorten was getting about like he was traipsing the stage on open mic night at the local chuckle hut, spitting out drab one liners. I often thought his speech writer was the same guy who wrote the gags inside Christmas crackers, so lamentable were they. He has been somewhat more disciplined in recent times but one wonders if the pressure of a long campaign might force Shorten to revisit his role as Labor’s Henny Youngman.

    Ultimately, the result will come down to who makes the least number of mistakes or according to one of Charlie Chan’s many aphorisms, “Tongue often hang man quicker than rope.”

  37. What do the Liberals care whether the Greens preference them in Batman or not? I suggest the skulduggery, if any, to which C@tmomma refers is more likely to involve a deal where the Greens run open tickets in marginal seats, and the Liberals preference the Greens in Batman.

  38. I, for one, am shocked – just shocked – at the implication that such a fine, upstanding gentleman as Micheal Kroger could possibly not be telling be the full truth.

  39. Airlines,
    Thanks for that.
    However, is it not the case that The Greens are targeting Batman and Wills as potential gains? How are they expecting to win them then, over and above the expected answer of having fantastic candidates? (And damn I wish I could insert a wink emoji here!)

  40. C@t, 10:41PM

    There’s no reason for the Greens to preference the Liberals, or for it to be included in any deal (thinking in the most pragmatic of mindsets): If the Liberals want to unseat the ALP, they will risk alienating a larger amount of the Green voting sphere, therefore making it less likely for the ALP to be unseated (as the Greens have a much higher vote in Batman than they do in, say, Corangamite), and the Liberals, in any case, would not benefit from a Greens preference to them as it’s much more likely that the Liberals finish 3rd than vice versa. Additionally, the Greens preferencing the Liberals would have a flow-on affect to the rest of the potential Greens voters, making them less likely to vote Green. The Liberals would be idiotic to push for this as a part of a deal and the Greens would be idiotic to accept it.

  41. C@tmomma
    Tuesday, April 19, 2016 at 10:41 pm
    bemused,
    C@tmomma you have seized on mere speculation and reported it as fact.

    Normally I AM more circumspect, however, is it not the case that The Greens have targeted Wills and Batman as potential gains? Therefore, how do they expect to get there if not with Liberal preferences?

    Best you quit before digging your hole deeper. You are posting rubbish.

  42. C@t, re your 10:41 – the Greens have a long history of talking up their chances in seats where they get 20% or so of the vote. Like Ryan (federal) and Mt Coot-tha (State) in Brisbane – they’ve been “about to win” for 8 years or so. And yes they won Melbourne (with 40% primary) and small pockets like Prahran and the Gabba ward in Brisbane, but they’ve got a long way to go before they win seats like Batman or Wills. But it would help if the ALP stopped putting up old Shoppies in places like that. Like I said, have a good sleep and stop being such a doom-sayer. (I would have said a Cassandra but she had a habit of being right, didn’t she?)

  44. Jack A Randa,
    I know, I know. lol
    However Mr Bowe has explained what will probably happen. Therefore may I now say, how can The Greens accept Liberal preferences in Batman when they will be coming from a Liberal candidate who is not a very nice person? (Does that make more sense?)

  46. Jack A Randa,
    The Labor candidate for Wills isn’t a former Shoppie is he? I thought he was a former advisor on International Terrorism?

  47. Ahah, ahah! I just typed semi-colon, dash, close bracket and the new Crikey software knows exactly what to do with it. 🙂

  48. C@tmomma
    Tuesday, April 19, 2016 at 10:50 pm
    Jack A Randa,
    I know, I know. lol
    However Mr Bowe has explained what will probably happen. Therefore may I now say, how can The Greens accept Liberal preferences in Batman when they will be coming from a Liberal candidate who is not a very nice person? (Does that make more sense?)

    You are going from bad to worse.
    How would the Greens reject preferences on ballots cast by any voters, be they Lib or anything else?

  49. No he may be ok but I was talking about Feeney as I think you know. Now here’s a smile for you to remind you we’re essntially on the same side 🙂

  50. C@t, 10:50PM

    Last election, David Feeney recieved preferences from Rise Up Australia and Family First. How can the ALP accept RUAP/FF preferences when they are coming from, well, people who associate themselves with RUAP/FF?

    Additionally, the Liberals have no endorsed candidate in Batman as of yet, and these comments would have completely destroyed Walsh’s chances of being preselected. We don’t actually know how nice of a person the prospective Liberal candidate is.

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