Essential Research: 50-50

Another sedate result on voting intention from Essential Research, which finds more evidence of strong support for a royal commission into the banking sector.

This week’s fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research is once again at 50-50, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 42%, Labor up a point to 36%, and the Greens steady at 11%. Other findings:

• Essential conducted one of its occasional experiments where separate halves of the sample are offered different versions of the same question, in this case relating to a royal commission into the banking and financial services industry. The more straightforward version recorded 59% supportive and 15% opposed. The more elaborate version attributed the notion to Bill Shorten and noted the resistance of Malcolm Turnbull, and got 54% supportive and 21% opposed, with the partisan effect particularly pronounced in the case of Coalition voters.

• From five options on school funding, the most favoured involved a greater involvement for the federal government, with 49% in favour of it becoming the main funder of all schools and 27% opposed.

• Thirty-six per cent said kids these days have more opportunities than back in the day, against 30% for less opportunities and 21% for the same.

• Fifty-six per cent said retirees received too little support, versus 7% for too much and 24% for about right.

• Seventy-six per cent thought it harder for young people to buy a house than for their parents’ generation, and 55% thought it harder for them to find a job. The respective figures for easier were 7% and 17%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,061 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  2. The article that best describes how the NSW contingent of the CPG is this one by Alan Stokes: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-needs-a-big-win-or-well-all-lose-20160418-go9iwp.html

    That column was what prompted me to write that post about angry Fairfaxians pissed off that Malcom had effed -up their dream of a new Sun King. It WAS a shocker, wasn’t it?

    It was written from the point of view that all normal people would welcome and celebrate a Malcolm victory, so we should all hope he defeats the forces of darkness etc. etc.

    The wonderful thing for Bill Shorten is that these buggers don’t give him the chance of a snowflake in Dante’s inferno of winning.

    What they do NOT realize is that anyone who can win control of the AWU – with all the thuggery and theatened biffo from opponents that would entail – is a pretty tough customer. I don’t think Turnbull has won an election that wasn’t rigged in his life, while Bill Shorten has been threatened by experts.

    Turnbull’s ever-diminishing circle of fanboiz see only the elan, the panache, the savoir-faire. The slick suits and the million dollar smile. They don’t see the empty vessel within the thin veneer of civility. Turnbull can be as rough as guts when he wants to be, but he does it behind closed doors. No-one can be quite sure whether he strangled that cat or not. Or just what he said to Brendan Nelson.

    The point is: Turnbull cracks, Bill Shorten doesn’t.

    We now have 75 days in which to witness the inevitable implosion (followed by explosion) of Malcolm Turnbull. Putting on the airs and graces of one-to-the-manor-born will not cut it. It might be a resurrection of the Caymans (does anyone believe Labor doesn’t have someone digging deep on this very case?), or it might be his merchant banking adventures. Turnbull does not have the cojones for a long campaign. Bill plays the long game well.

    It can only get worse for The Enlightened One from now on, in.

  4. Nicholas: No, that’s far too simplistic.
    In the first instance what matters is 2PP, and if there’s a substantial Other vote then those preferences will count too. As a second-order matter the 2PP will be very different between different states, and some states have far more seats in play than others.
    The plausible paths to victory for the ALP generally involve an improvement in NSW and QLD, and at least holding the line elsewhere.

  5. ” Hmm so the Senate found something to get on with. How inconvenient for the government ”

    Efficiency, as well as innovative and agile behavior. Mal should be pleased.

    but if course he is a genius so he would have seen this coming. 🙂

  6. George Brandis:
    “Now, senator Carr, you are the one who says the science is settled. I don’t. I’m aware there are a number of views about the two questions – the nature and the causes of climate change. It doesn’t seem to me that the science is settled at all. But I’m not a scientist. I’m agnostic, really, on that.”

    Satirist:
    “Now, Senator Brandis, you are the one who says your logic is settled. I don’t. I’m aware there are a number of views about the two questions – the nature and the causes of your logic. It doesn’t seem to me that your logic is settled at all. But I’m not a logician. I’m agnostic, really, on that.

  9. Ann Sudmalis’ days as federal member for Gilmore could be numbered after the Liberal MP signed a petition stating she would vote against her own party at the next state election.

    The petition, which Mrs Sudmalis signed at a public meeting in Nowra on March 10, called on the Baird government to abandon plans to merge Kiama and Shoalhaven councils.

  11. Meanwhile in the senate…….

    Stephanie Anderson ‏@stephanieando
    Hanson-Young: People deserve to know how many millions of dollars has been pumped into this company that has links to offshore tax havens

    Stephanie Anderson
    14m14 minutes ago
    Stephanie Anderson ‏@stephanieando
    Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young says the government must reveal these documents before 9.30am on Thursday #auspol

    Stephanie Anderson
    15m15 minutes ago
    Stephanie Anderson ‏@stephanieando
    Back in the Senate, politicians have backed a motion ordering the government to table all contracts it holds with Wilson Security #auspol

  12. So the ‘moderate’ Brandis has swallowed the crap about the Science of Climate change not being settled, it’s not just the party’s right wing*. He must feel a proper goose for having supported Howard’s ETS and later the one negotiated between the Turnbull-led Opposition and the (first) Rudd Government. The Liberals are beholden to the fossil fuel industry and effective action on climate change in Australia is off the menu until they can be booted. They might as well save a couple of billion by dropping the risible ‘Direct Inaction’ and declare their determination to do nothing.

    * these days it’s probably more correct to speak of the Liberal Right Wing and Far Right Wing. They have long since vacated the Centre.

  13. Prettyone might have a point really

    Just have one massive Royal Commission into governance, tax and finance in all institutions public and private. Have it report on back with some legislative possibilities to eradicate corruption in all its forms.

    It would take a lot of courage but gee this country would be so much stronger for it

  15. Labor needs to win 20 seats minimum to win office. This would take them to 75, and presumably Bandt would support them (I guess there’s also a decent chance that Wilkie, McGowan and Windsor, presuming they win, would also offer support). The various redistributions have seen Paterson (where sitting member Baldwin is retiring anyway), Barton and Dobell become notionally Labor, so let’s assume that Labor holds those, and so that leaves 17 seats needed. So where will those seats come from?

    Numerous people have noted that WA seems poised to swing back to Labor, so let’s say 2-3 seats (to wit, Burt, Cowan & Hasluck, and possibly Swan) there, maybe Hindmarsh in SA, Solomon in NT, 1-2 in Victoria (out of La Trobe, Deakin & Corangamite), and 1-2 in Tasmania (out of Bass, Braddon and Lyons).

    This gives us in the region of 5-10 seats before we get to the marginal-rich states of NSW & Queensland. A 4.5% swing in Qld would likely net Labor 5 seats (Bonner, Brisbane, Petrie, Capricornia and Forde), and a similar swing in NSW would bag about 7 seats (Lindsay, Robertson, Reid, MacArthur, Page, Banks, and Eden-Monaro.

    So 17 seats is very do-able, and 20+ is quite possible.

  16. Karen MacNamara not looking happy in Parliament today.
    And with good reason. Her arse is grass.
    No doubt that will be cheering C@tmomma up.

  17. Thanks, William, re the recommendations. Numbered comments and smaller font welcome. Also on my Windows 10 the ‘Leave a Reply’ ‘Older Comments’ and ‘Newer Comments’ labels overlap with the comment box.

  18. More unintended consequences of Turnbull’s grand plan:

    [The Senate committee inquiries are both highly embarrassing to the government, and would not have eventuated if not for Malcolm Turnbull’s decision to recall parliament for extra sittings to consider reinstating a tougher building industry regulator.

    The Senate has also brought forward Senate estimates hearings to 5 and 6 May, after the budget on 3 May.

    The estimates hearings may further complicate the government’s plans to pass the budget then announce a double dissolution before 11 May because they will reduce the amount of time to consider the budget bills.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/19/labor-gets-support-for-senate-inquiry-into-associated-entities-targeting-sinodinos

  19. With the Government and Opposition are now running neck and neck in the polls, change is well and truly on the cards.

    However, most of the power and nearly all of the money in this country, not to mention the mainstream media, are in the Government’s corner. In order retain office, with all this powerful backing, there is no tactic, trick, smear or lie too low or too egregious to which the Coalition parties won’t stoop. If defeat looks likely as the big day draws near, they’ll be like cornered rats.

    Labor needs to do a lot of ‘war gaming’, try to identify where things might go wrong, be on the lookout fot traps and wedges, and generally strategise to fight an asymmetrical war.

  20. However, most of the power and nearly all of the money in this country, not to mention the mainstream media, are in the Government’s corner.

    Labor has won from Opposition before. The influence of the media, in particular, has been overstated and is losing its power at a rate of knots. I keep coming back to the fact that this is the most useless, pointless, unproductive and politically incompetent government of my lifetime. No Government even half that bad has ever won an election and I cannot see it happening now.

    We are at the point where the budget simply cannot have enough in it to be convincing to swing voters and is very likely to be a rushed, poor quality controlled job that will leave the government very exposed in the lead up to the election.

    Even this supposed ASIC beef up. Labor can point out that it was only happening because Labor has set the agenda with the banks Royal Commission and the Government is playing catch-up. They claim that ASIC already is more capable than an RC to sort out the banks, but at the same time they are rushing to pour millions of dollars back into it and promising to beef up its powers. In an election of trust (as Turnbull is wont to portray it) Labor will ask whether an ex-banker like Turnbull will do anything if he wins the election or will he fold to the pressure of his erstwhile colleagues?

  23. if I sit well back at stretched arms length – I can read the comments without my reading glasses….

  25. I rest my case.

    No less than Steve Price and Andrew Bolt on 2GB AGREE WITH ME that Michaelia Cash’s voice is the dead spit of Effie Stefanides.

  26. Sounds like fun. 🙂
    [Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    On Sky right now Alan Jones is shoving Sinodinos under a microscope and showing everyone a myriad of tiny germs crawling around.]

  28. Q&A is normally always pretty mind-numbing, despite the tweets to the contrary running across the screen all night, but last night it was particularly poor. Probably the worst I’ve ever seen. The deck certainly seemed to be loaded further to the right than usual. Hewson was the only saving grace.

  29. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-19/lnp-and-crossbench-mps-unite-to-push-bill-to-increase-parliament/7339054?section=qld

    [It could be third time lucky for the backers of a push to expand the size of Queensland’s Parliament to match the growth in the state’s population.

    Independent MP Rob Pyne has voted with the LNP and Katter’s Australian Party MPs to allow a debate this Thursday on a new Electoral (Improving Representation) and Other Legislation Amendment Bill.]

  33. Gradually navigating my way around the new site. All seems to be working well with my JAWS screen reading software so far.

  34. The Government gives back the funds it ripped out of ASIC. They andtheir banking mates really really don’t want a banking Royal Commission. What better reason to have one:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/backbenchers-confront-malcolm-turnbull-over-banks-as-pm-confirms-july-2-election-20160419-go9ro8.html

    TPOF is right about Labor setting the agenda, but my my comment above stands. The LNP and their backers will fight dirty, very dirty. They’ll also throw billions overboard if needed to get themselves out of a hole, like Howard did in 2001 before the Tampa hove over the horizon. Labor needs a counter strategy.

  35. Stoke’s article was actually quite interesting. He’s a disillusioned Malcolm-lover who basically says: unless you think Turnbull is going to win handsomely, don’t bother. I think a lot of voters will take the don’t bother option.

  37. This is hilarious!

    Sky News Australia
    14m14 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    ‘This is the election ad that they want you to pay for to help sell their budget’. Paul has the full script #pmlive http://snpy.tv/22Kq9jT

  38. k17
    [ I think a lot of voters will take the don’t bother option.]
    I think also that the Greens and indi’s will not have an easy time of it.
    People’s views seem to be that this time they have to chose between the Libs or Labor.

  43. Victoria

    Thanks for the post of the Liberal Party ad at our expense. What a foolish thing for them to do. There is a difference between ramping up Government ads in an election and actually running them in a one week period between the budget and the date that the PM has already announced that he will go to the GG to seek a DD for a 2 July election.

    Everyone, even some quite thick people, will either work out that it is an election ad for the Liberals paid for by us or will get it as soon as someone tells them. And in a world where the Liberals are forever banging on about waste, it cannot play well.

    Every day this government does something inane. And another Tampa won’t save them, because if something like that did happen again they would screw up the response to that too.

  47. Looks like Penny Wong managed to snooker Turnbull’s “brilliant strategy in the Senate today. An inquiry into NSW dodginess and a demand that Arfur Seenodonors present himself.

  50. Try again:

    Caught by the new thread thingy again:
    From the previous thread, once more with feeling:

    APCs were originally combinations of aspirin, phenacetin and caffeine that were developed in Germany by Beyer before WW1, but formed the basis of the fortunes of the nascent Australian pharmaceutical industry during and after WW2, when the German patents could be ignored. APCs were mass produced and sold over the counter, particularly to the largely female factory workforce during the war.

    Thanks very much for that. A relative’s mother was in a factory, a refugee from Europe after WWII, arrived in Oz about 1950, and it was normal for all of the female workers to have an APC (or two?) at morning break, lunch, and afternoon break. They said it kept them going.

    I am interested in the caffeine part. I drink very strong turkish coffee, maybe three or four cups, or more, in the morning, and usually tea after that at lunch and afternoon tea. But even when I don’t have my coffee fix, I don’t get headaches or other symptoms of withdrawal.

    I can’t work out why tea would dehydrate you. When I was a kid in Brisbane, nobody drank water, tea was all they ever drank. If it dehydrated you, my family would have died. As a kid the only thing I drank was milk and tea. Lots of tea. Water at school, where there was no tea to be had, but at the weekend and after school, it was just tea, and some milk.

    don
    Tuesday, April 19, 2016 at 9:41 pm
    Hey!

    blockquote and /blockquote, enclosed in pointy brackets, works on this iteration of PB as a quote!

    Does bold work?

    don
    Tuesday, April 19, 2016 at 9:42 pm
    Yep, it does.

    b and /b enclosed in pointy brackets.

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