This week’s fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research is once again at 50-50, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 42%, Labor up a point to 36%, and the Greens steady at 11%. Other findings:
• Essential conducted one of its occasional experiments where separate halves of the sample are offered different versions of the same question, in this case relating to a royal commission into the banking and financial services industry. The more straightforward version recorded 59% supportive and 15% opposed. The more elaborate version attributed the notion to Bill Shorten and noted the resistance of Malcolm Turnbull, and got 54% supportive and 21% opposed, with the partisan effect particularly pronounced in the case of Coalition voters.
• From five options on school funding, the most favoured involved a greater involvement for the federal government, with 49% in favour of it becoming the main funder of all schools and 27% opposed.
• Thirty-six per cent said kids these days have more opportunities than back in the day, against 30% for less opportunities and 21% for the same.
• Fifty-six per cent said retirees received too little support, versus 7% for too much and 24% for about right.
• Seventy-six per cent thought it harder for young people to buy a house than for their parents’ generation, and 55% thought it harder for them to find a job. The respective figures for easier were 7% and 17%.
psyclaw
psyclaw
If I took an uneducated guess, I’d say that the continued popularity of the NSW Liberal State Government is helping the Federal NSW voting intention.
I also think something similar is happening in Tasmania; and with the WA State Government being so unpopular, it might be having the opposite effect on federal voting intention in WA.
MTBW
Smaller print and numbers on posts would make me happy.
And numbers on pages as well!
airlines, Why don’t you include Dobell as a winnable in NSW. I believe Karen McNamara, who sticks to Abbott like a leech, has v little chance of holding on. The public schools and banks bit will bite hard here.
Yabba, 5:59PM
Dobell is a notionally ALP seat, so I count it as already gained by the ALP.
Is the Senate going to continue sitting in coming days and weeks?
Notice at the top of this page.
“The new Crikey is free while it’s in public beta. Send your issues to product@crikey.com.au“
Crikey has been a subscriber only newspaper for years and has hosted PB and other blogs and giving them free access.
Airlines, DTT – Paterson …?
MM, 6:10PM
Paterson’s notionally ALP also.
Didn’t Caroline Overington have a run in with Turnbull? Or was it his opponent? I cant remember. But she doesn’t seem too impressed.
That’s the whole (rather shortish) column from The Australian, so no need for a link, eh?
Will, from how close to your nose was that photo taken? The secret of good portraits is to use a tele lense and get about 4m away – then the subject’s face is not dominated by the nose and the head actually shows some ears. As with the whole format, you should try again.
lens!
It was taken on a phone, Jack. I’d have put a bit more effort in if I’d known how prominent it was going to be.
Would it be reasonable to conjecture that if the combined Labor and Greens primary vote is 50% or above, there will be a change of government, but if the sum of Labor’s and the Greens’ primary votes is less than 50% the Coalition Government will endure?
William
I liked it better when you were a mysterious shadow, manipulating us behind the scenes. 🙂
Didn’t Caroline Overington have a run in with Turnbull?
Overington attacked Turnbull’s Labor opponent at a polling booth in the 2007 election.
[I liked it better when you were a mysterious shadow, manipulating us behind the scenes.
]
All he needs is a crown and a beard.
Well, it seems she’s made up with him, and doesn’t like Turnbull much.
It’s not a bad thesis: “Malcolm thinks he’s CEO.”
There’s been quite a lot of ordering people about. If the Senate doesn’t do as we instruct, we put them under discipline, with a view to dismissal. Let’s force construction workers to answer to a Star Chamber. No need for the niceities of evidence or the right to silence. Want some money, states? Go fetch! No more gravy train for youse. You’d think it was public money, or something, that we were giving you. The people are supposed to obey the government, not protest against it, or (The Horror!) vote against it. A majority of 1 is good enough to be a dictatorship. What we say goes. Show ’em the cold steel Malcolm. They don’t like it up ’em.
When yu think of all the trouble he’s cause – borh for us, the nation and his own miserable party – you’d think the problem could be best solved by the Royal Order Of The Boot, in Malcolm’s direction. It’d be simpler that way.
And it would give the iberal Party a chance to regroup like Labor had to do; to come up with some solid policies that don’t rely solely on polling perceptions that they are (naturally) the best to manage the economy, or look after the banks (although there ight be some irony there).
The thing is: the Libs weren’t ready to govern. They couldn’t get over 2007. They had the Born To Rule mentality writ large. Remember how they told us all they were so “experienced”? What chutzpah! What did they do? Effed it up. Whatever crazy ideas they had in their heads didn’t work. They fudged, they kludged, the smudged the fine print. But in the end they were just sore losers and couldn’t get over themselves as the natural party of government. Time they learned their lesson, or they never will.
WB
To follow on Jack a Randa’s post, maybe get a shot of you from one of the many appearance you made on TV. All dressed up, glammed up and probably a good angle.
Wow! The site still has a few bugs crawling over it but smexy new banner guys! Black is the new Crikey Pollbludger blog!
However, *sad face*, there doesn’t seem to be the ability to include emojis! I’m complaining to the management! :pretend grin emoji:
William. your picture makes you look like a rather young Jean-Luc Picard.
Because I am from NSW I do not know who these Collingwood supporters of whom others speak actually are, but isn’t Collingwood a toffy neighbourhood these days?
Actually, to be honest, I do kind of know about Collingwood. My mother is Victorian (I always say I was the product of a mixed-marriage – mother Victorian, Catholic DLP, VFL; Father NSW, Catholic, Labor, mad rugby league follower. ) My mother was a life-long Carlton supporter, while her Irish uncle who lived with us was a mad Collingwood supporter.
Most of what I know about Collingwood comes from reading Power Without Glory by Frank Hardy.
OK, so the html italics works!
As in <!– italics –>
This is going to take some getting use tobut the return of numbers and pages could help
Hmmm ignore last post.
Collingwood itself has changed a good deal more than the club’s support base, D&M.
Shiftaling at 6:09 – there was a report on The Pulse from the Senate twitter account that the Senate wouldn’t sit again till May 2 – but as I understand the SOs, it’s in the hands of the majority. At the mom you can see them working through notices of motion on http://www.aph.gov.au/News_and_Events/LiveMediaPlayer?vID={290E06F4-E547-4A25-A545-7F4E7C562559}&type=1 and you can read what the notices of motion are on http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/chamber/orderofbusiness/20160419_SR150/upload_pdf/Tuesday, 19 Apr 2016.pdf on pp 2 and 3. Not terribly exciting, but it gives the definite impression that the Government is NOT in control. So my guess is that they might continue to do some real work, not of the Govt’s choosing, for another few days.
To the person up thread that complained about the refresh problem he had.
Here is my solution: before hitting refresh, hit the date time of the last post so it goes to the top of the screen. Then hit refresh and the last post will still be at the top of the screen with all subsequent posts below it.
I’ve just sent my first situation report to Crikey central, and getting comment numbering back was top of the list. I also suggested that the font size at least be reduced in comments. I’ll lobby for the return of emoticons, but they’re a second order concern. Do note that there’s a dedicated thread for discussion of the site redesign.
Bushfire Bill:
‘ Didn’t Caroline Overington have a run in with Turnbull? Or was it his opponent? I cant remember.’
It was Labor candidate for Wentworth in the 2010 election, George Newhouse. He was doing some real damage to Turnbull and it was touch anf go there for a while which upset Ms Overington. She being one of the chief cheerleaders at The Australian for Malcolm Turnbull.
I believe she physically man-handled George at the Bondi Public School booth as she harangued him about something or other that had got her Kimbies in a twist. Her kids were there and all present at the time were witnesses to how aggressive she was.
So Rupert didn’t have much choice but to put her in the Sin Bin to cool off and soon after the election she was moved over to The Womens Weekly. As is the wont of Rupert wrt his favourite girls he has waited until the tumult and the shouting has died down and so now she’s back at The Australian as Deputy Editor just in time for this election.
I expect we’ll be seeing her all over The Drum like a rash and wherever else she can wheedle her way in to serve as Numero Uno Cheerleader for Malcolm again.
Sad excuse for a journalist that she is.
Thanks Jack
On the page I am looking at the words, ‘Comment navigation’ are sitting on top of
‘Leave a Reply’.
Also, the words, ‘Older comments’ are in the comment box and the first few words you type go over it.
,blockquote>
Question
Tuesday, April 19, 2016 at 6:31 pm
[I liked it better when you were a mysterious shadow, manipulating us behind the scenes.
]
All he needs is a crown and a beard.
And a bloody big sword!
Tom
ABC News 24
27m27 minutes ago
ABC News 24 @ABCNews24
Outgoing Liberal backbencher @DennisJensenMP takes a parting shot at Prime Minister @TurnbullMalcolm #ausvotes http://snpy.tv/1ShWcCU
Turnbull was shown on Ch 10 news tonight saying a banking RC would cost hundreds of millions in legal costs, run for several years and in the end only produce a report. That sounds like the unions RC except that the government added the cost of a team of coppers – they could be redeployed to a banking RC.
Oooo. I missed this development
Stephanie Anderson
41m41 minutes ago
Stephanie Anderson @stephanieando
Miss the action in the Senate just now? Labor has succeeded in establishing an inquiry into Liberal party donations and associated entities
Stephanie Anderson
41m41 minutes ago
Stephanie Anderson @stephanieando
Arthur Sinodinos will also be directed to appear before that inquiry #auspol
Evening all.
Apparently Labor also got up a health funding enquiry
The donations enquiry is due to report on the day after the budget.
D&M
[Most of what I know about Collingwood comes from reading Power Without Glory by Frank Hardy.]
My maternal grand father gets a mention.
I remember when there was a frenzy of activity to identify everyone in the book.
I’ve still got the Roneoed cheat sheets that were produced at the time and handed around after church.
Unbelievable!
Good evening all,
7.30 will also be a bit of a downer for the Libs as well tonight.
The greens getting down and dirty. And no I do not mean that in a negative way. Good on them.
Cheers.
BB, re: Caroline Overington, her run-in was actually with George Newhouse, the human rights lawyer who stood against Turnbull a few elections ago. The run-in got physical, and I think Overington was sent on leave.
However, her estimation of where Turnbull is coming from is excellent.
This morning, because I did not have BK’s amazingly curated news links, and by Dog did I miss them. I had to read the SMH and ABC websites during my somewhat hurried breakfast.
I read Mark Kenny and Peter Harcher, and some others. As someone said upstream, boy are these guys angry that Turnbull is not doing well. They blame the electorate, the RWNJs in the Libs, Labor (who apparently is stumbling blindly to a less decisive defeat than they deserve, because, hey, there is no way the working class rabble could have come up with decent, sensible, evidence-based policies).
The article that best describes how the NSW contingent of the CPG is this one by Alan Stokes: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-needs-a-big-win-or-well-all-lose-20160418-go9iwp.html
If I recall, when Turnbull won the pre-selection from Peter King in Wentworth (in 2004?) He recruited about 400 new members for the Point Piper branch. They included all living Fairfaxes, and lots of other local luminaries. At the time Peter King, the sitting (Liberal) member, accused Turnbull of branch stacking. Turnbull’s reply was that the 400 new members were ll people who should have been members of the Liberal party.
Sydney is a pretty incestuous place, and I know that most of the reporters for the SMH live within a few km of Wentworth. Some intrepid types live near me in the still grungy South Sydney, but Malcolm is still a big personality around here. I think that the SMH reporters know Malcolm, and get tidbits from him. I also know that the main money spinner for the SMH these days is Domain . The SMH is shit scared of anything that may burst the local apartment real-estate bubble. So, ergo, our SMH reporters need to talk up Malcolm, as the best hope for supporting the real-estate bubble (sorry boom).
The bubble has of course burst. I heard in a Chinese whisper type situation a year ago that Mr Meriton, Harry Triguboff (sp?) said that the apartment market had peaked. Interesting that he is now meeting with people from the reserve bank.
That ALP sponsored inquiry is certainly not going to be a good look for the Libs – especially at the start of the (pseudo-) election campaign. I wonder if they’re thinking the parliamentary recall was still worth it.
I’m having so much trouble with the big print. It’s an effort to read this huge writing without a headache.
Anyways, I support the RC in to financial services, party donations, electricity costs , corrupt union practices.
Anything the public would like to know more or feel something underhand is going on.
I think we need to get over this left vs. right, Labor vs. Liberal and realise an RC or enquiry is to shine a light into the dark corners (I think Tony Abbott said that), and right some wrongs, in relation to big issues the public has a right to know about.
“Labor has succeeded in establishing an inquiry into Liberal party donations and associated entities”
And reports back just after the budget?
That would be something to warm the cockles of Malcolm heart wot?
And would not have been possible if he hadn’t brought the senate back for a special sitting. 🙂
David Feeney
David Feeney – Verified account @Feeney4Batman
Liberal Party candidate for #Batman ‘in deep water’ after sexist & bigoted comments @NorthcoteLeader #auspol
Embedded image
5:47 PM – 18 Apr 2016 from Canberra, Australian Capital Territory
With News ltd loudly leading the pack.
CTar1,
Thanks for that lovely cameo 🙂
Hmm so the Senate found something to get on with. How inconvenient for the government