Essential Research: 50-50

Another sedate result on voting intention from Essential Research, which finds more evidence of strong support for a royal commission into the banking sector.

This week’s fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research is once again at 50-50, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 42%, Labor up a point to 36%, and the Greens steady at 11%. Other findings:

• Essential conducted one of its occasional experiments where separate halves of the sample are offered different versions of the same question, in this case relating to a royal commission into the banking and financial services industry. The more straightforward version recorded 59% supportive and 15% opposed. The more elaborate version attributed the notion to Bill Shorten and noted the resistance of Malcolm Turnbull, and got 54% supportive and 21% opposed, with the partisan effect particularly pronounced in the case of Coalition voters.

• From five options on school funding, the most favoured involved a greater involvement for the federal government, with 49% in favour of it becoming the main funder of all schools and 27% opposed.

• Thirty-six per cent said kids these days have more opportunities than back in the day, against 30% for less opportunities and 21% for the same.

• Fifty-six per cent said retirees received too little support, versus 7% for too much and 24% for about right.

• Seventy-six per cent thought it harder for young people to buy a house than for their parents’ generation, and 55% thought it harder for them to find a job. The respective figures for easier were 7% and 17%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,061 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

Comments Page 19 of 22
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  1. poroti
    What a joke! The give away line in that article – ” but little detail has been provided by the government to explain how it will work”. Sounds familiar with just about every policy they dream up.

  2. K17

    I wonder if Malcolm will even know what’s in the budget before it’s delivered.

    I wonder if Morrison will be told what’s in the budget before he delivers it.

  3. Mike Hilliard

    I reckon the meeting the other night between the banks and Mal et al the banks offered the money to avoid the public exposure of a RC

  4. [Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill]

    You would have to assume that they have focus group / polling that reflects the idiots here who declared Shorten unelectable. Indeed just this week at work I had someone reflecting this Shorten view. So I compared Shorten to Howard and the person was somewhat taken aback.
    I honestly think Shorten is streaks ahead of Howard just before Howard beat the best PM we’ve ever had.

  8. mikehilliard
    Wednesday, April 20, 2016 at 8:08 pm
    $121m to the banks is peanuts.

    The self-regulation model is a joke. Social security recipients are not subject to self-regulation. Neither road traffic law enforcement nor shoplifting are dealt with by self-regulation. The simple fact is that those who are in the best position to help themselves to other people’s money are subject to the least surveillance, almost completely absent enforcement and the mildest reprimand. The result is that hundreds of millions are taken from bank clients every year with complete impunity.

  9. TPP ALP Election result predictions.
    Tom: 53
    K17: 54
    Shiftaling: 52.7
    Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
    Airlines: 51
    Asha Leu: 52.5
    Matt31: 49.2
    C@tmomma: 51.3
    Chinda: 50.2
    Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
    Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
    ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
    Don: Labor 52.6. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
    nappin 51.8
    paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
    Taylormade : 48
    JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
    booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
    Peter of Marino 52.2
    Confessions: 49.8
    Psyclaw 52.1 and a majority of 8 or 9
    Steve777: 49.6
    Tom: 53
    Yabba88: 51.7
    Puff, the Magic Dragon 52.8
    Shiftaling: 52.7
    Socrates 50.5
    To add to this, please copy and paste AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END

  11. It’s good to see the LNP talking about Bill Shorten. One thing voters will say when given the opportunity to express themselves is how much they dislike it when politicians attack each other. What voters will remember is a politician behaving badly…yet again. Morrison will be remembered for his poor conduct, for his negativity, for his child-like squabbling and name-calling.

  12. I don’t know if this has been talked about yet, but…

    I just checked, and a July 2 Election would be smack-bang in the middle of the QLD, VIC and NT School Holidays; and would be right at the start of the School Holidays in NSW, WA, TA, and the ACT.

    So, yeah… can’t seeing that going too well with the parents.

  13. don
    Wednesday, April 20, 2016 at 8:32 pm
    TPP ALP Election result predictions.
    Tom: 53
    K17: 54
    Shiftaling: 52.7
    Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
    Airlines: 51
    Asha Leu: 52.5
    Matt31: 49.2
    C@tmomma: 51.3
    Chinda: 50.2
    Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
    Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
    ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
    Don: Labor 52.6. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
    nappin 51.8
    paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
    Taylormade : 48
    JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
    booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
    Peter of Marino 52.2
    Confessions: 49.8
    Psyclaw 52.1 and a majority of 8 or 9
    Steve777: 49.6
    Tom: 53
    Yabba88: 51.7
    Puff, the Magic Dragon 52.8
    Shiftaling: 52.7
    Socrates 50.5
    briefly 54.5
    To add to this, please copy and paste AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END

  15. Musrum,
    You know how there is the app that changes Abbott’s image to kittens, can you please do one to turn Bilbo’s pic into Gough Whitlam, or a bunch of flowers?

  22. Re the banks. I received a letter this week to tell me the RACQ is starting a banking business. Must be a bit of profit in it…. Perhaps they were driven to it.

  24. I want my avatar back. there was a right wing poster whom I replied to often only because I liked his dog avatar.
    Avatars are not that hard to include, shirley?

  26. [WeWantPaul
    Wednesday, April 20, 2016 at 8:47 pm
    I love your passion and optimism briefly. Are you heading to the Hasluck, Plibersek thing?]

    I hope to be able to…have had a very busy few days at the mill…I will if time permits.

  31. Not to make light of it all, but is the death of a work for the dole participant regarded the responsibility of the govt of the day in the same way as the death of a pink batts installer was during the GFC financial stimulation package?

  33. TPP ALP Election result predictions.
    Tom: 53
    K17: 54
    Shiftaling: 52.7
    Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
    Airlines: 51
    Asha Leu: 52.5
    Matt31: 49.2
    C@tmomma: 51.3
    Chinda: 50.2
    Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
    Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
    ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
    Don: Labor 52.6. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
    nappin 51.8
    paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
    Taylormade : 48
    JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
    booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
    Peter of Marino 52.2
    Confessions: 49.8
    Psyclaw 52.1 and a majority of 8 or 9
    Steve777: 49.6
    Tom: 53
    Yabba88: 51.7
    Puff, the Magic Dragon 52.8
    Shiftaling: 52.7
    Socrates 50.5
    briefly 54.5
    TPOF 52.9
    To add to this, please copy and paste AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END

  34. Good evening all,
    It appears the Libs are going to try and put the pressure on Bill Shorten to appear before the Senate committee into election funding that labor got through the senate on Tuesday night.

    Interesting line of attack from them. Not a surprise they are going after Bill but it will be interesting to see how they try and frame it and how labor responds.

    Cheers.

  35. The self-regulation model is a joke

    We could apply it to the roads. Drivers could determine for themselves what is a safe maximum speed, how much alcohol they can have and still be fit to drive, what side of the road to drive on..

  36. I’ve gotta say…The number of posts (reposts) with TPP predictions to navigate around is certainly consistent with the new PB layout on a dissatisfaction scale.

  41. Now i have dropped off the prediction list again.

    I am miffed and blame nappin. 🙂

    However, i stand by my 52 to the forced of light & goodnesses. 🙂

  42. DOYLEY – Labor will say he’s not a Senator, so doesn’t have to appear, and this matter was raised in the Royal Commission and no finding was made against him. End of story. Oh, and why don’t we start looking at the Rolex watch fiasco.

  43. Where is Turnbull and Ms Cash? What do they have to say to the CFMEU on this?

    John Setka
    John Setka – ‏@CFMEUJohnSetka

    The sickening thing about this is CFMEU will be prosecuted !EXCLUSIVE – Dodgy demo company attacks CFMEU #auspol http://youtu.be/k-Yd4blzp34
    YouTube
    YouTube

    CFMEU TV EXCLUSIVE – Dodgy demo company attacks CFMEU

    Watch this exclusive footage of crazed demo boss attacking our own CFMEU assistant secretary Shaun Reardon. CFMEU shut site down yesterday over safety concer…
    View on web
    1:40 AM – 20 Apr 2016
    28 RETWEETS19 LIKES

  44. Doyley
    Wednesday, April 20, 2016 at 9:00 pm
    Good evening all,
    It appears the Libs are going to try and put the pressure on Bill Shorten to appear before the Senate committee into election funding that labor got through the senate on Tuesday night.

    The Guardian has an article – it seems that Bernardi is pushing this. The article says that the unions RC exonerated Shorten over a $40,000 donation not declared at the time. Comments on the article are generally scathing of the LNP.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/20/coalition-demands-bill-shorten-appear-before-senate-inquiry-into-donations

  46. kevin,

    Good points.

    I am not too concerned about it all.

    I just find it interesting that the Libs are trying it on over a late campaign donation declaration especially, ss you say, the RC has already addressed it.

    Plenty of Libs in the same boat and really to go the personal attack on Bill over this is a ” courageous decision ”

    Cheers.

  47. “will be interesting to see how they try and frame it and how labor responds.”

    Lol! it will be ……”WHAT!!!!!!!! you admit to getting funds from EVIL DIRTY UNWASHED Unions!!!!!!!!”

    “Sorry no NBN report tonight. TPG gerbils make William’s gerbils rocket scientists.”

    My mum is really pissed about that at the moment. first iinet lost her connection request. Then the guy came out from NBN and broke a tile on the roof and wanted to install the connection in her bedroom. She made him do it where her current phone port is (mum takes crap from no tradie) and he plugged in his tester…….no go.

    This was a week and a half ago. She has now been told its a problem with the street infrastructure and wont be fixed before the 26th….of next month. Not really iinets fault but not a happy mum.

  48. Doyley

    And remember that the donation was ultimately declared. In th case of seenodonors, they have not disclosed the source of the donations

  49. victoria,

    Agreed.

    I find it a very interesting approach given the fact that a significant number of Libs gave also made late declarations over the years.

    It will be interesting to see how it unfolds.

    Could well be another own goal for the Libs.

    Cheers.

  50. Re Confessions @8:59PM: of course, for an Opposition to try to make political capital out of such a tragedy would be completelybeyond the pale. But that’s exactly what Abbott did, cheered on by his party and his media allies.

    P.S. I see the list of predictions has been updated, with a few dropped entries (including mine) restored. Ifwe want to keep it going, we should add the version number, as suggested by an earlier posting.

    P.P.S. The last 3 wins by Labor from Opposition:
    Rudd (2007): 52.7
    Hawke (1983): 53.2
    Whitlam (1972): 52.7
    In each case, Labor was widely expected to win, the Government regarded as tired and stale and the media was not particularly hostile to Labor, even supportive in some sectors.
    This time around, I thing any prediction above about 51.5 is fantasy land. Would be delighted to bevproved wrong, however.

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