This week’s fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research is once again at 50-50, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 42%, Labor up a point to 36%, and the Greens steady at 11%. Other findings:
• Essential conducted one of its occasional experiments where separate halves of the sample are offered different versions of the same question, in this case relating to a royal commission into the banking and financial services industry. The more straightforward version recorded 59% supportive and 15% opposed. The more elaborate version attributed the notion to Bill Shorten and noted the resistance of Malcolm Turnbull, and got 54% supportive and 21% opposed, with the partisan effect particularly pronounced in the case of Coalition voters.
• From five options on school funding, the most favoured involved a greater involvement for the federal government, with 49% in favour of it becoming the main funder of all schools and 27% opposed.
• Thirty-six per cent said kids these days have more opportunities than back in the day, against 30% for less opportunities and 21% for the same.
• Fifty-six per cent said retirees received too little support, versus 7% for too much and 24% for about right.
• Seventy-six per cent thought it harder for young people to buy a house than for their parents’ generation, and 55% thought it harder for them to find a job. The respective figures for easier were 7% and 17%.
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.5. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
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TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Jen: 51.3
Briefly: 54.5
imacca: 52
BK: 50.4
Yabba88: 51.7
Socrates 50.5
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Taylormade : 48
JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
To add to this, please copy and past AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.5. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
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Would a tax on all funds being transferred from Australia to a foreign bank account solve the multinational pay no tax dilemma?
re the predictions. Someone with a PC might gather them up for posterity. Bit hard on a tablet.
lizzie
And it was ALL your fault ! 🙂 Your mention of Edge reminded me of an intention to upgrade and so spurred me on upwards and onward. Glad I had your prod along.
Pom 51.7
OK Tom (small spelling correction for you too)
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.5. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
Taylormade : 48
JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
To add to this, please copy and paste AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Jen: 51.3
Briefly: 54.5
imacca: 52
BK: 50.4
Yabba88: 51.7
Socrates 50.5
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Taylormade : 48
JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
Peter of Marino 52.2
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I would have thought that the only way Malcolm could win would be to approach the election looking like he’s going to win big (and thus get a big mandate). If that doesn’t look on the cards, the voters could get very ugly. We could get a repeat of 2013 when voters decided to tip Rudd into a dustbin.
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.5. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
Taylormade : 48
JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
Peter of Marino 52.2
To add to this, please copy and paste AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.5. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
confessions: 59.8%
To add to this, please copy and paste AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.5. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
confessions: 49.8%
To add to this, please copy and paste AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.5. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
Taylormade : 48
JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
Peter of Marino 52.2
To add to this, please copy and paste AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END
And before adding your predictions, go to the end of the comments and choose the latest update!
Sorry, ignore the previous comment. I certainly don’t think the next election will have Labor on 2PP of nearly 60%!!
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.6. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
Taylormade : 48
JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
Peter of Marino 52.2
To add to this, please copy and paste AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END
And before adding your predictions, go to the end of the comments and choose the latest update!
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
Puff, the Magic Dragon 52.8
Don: Labor 52.6. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
Confessions 49.8
To add to this, please copy and paste the latest version AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END
..
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.5. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
confessions: 59.8%
Psyclaw 52.1 and a majority of 8 or 9
To add to this, please copy and paste AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.6. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
Taylormade : 48
JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
Peter of Marino 52.2
Confessions 49.8
And before adding your predictions, go to the end of the comments and choose the latest update!
To add to this, please copy and paste AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.6. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
Taylormade : 48
JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
Peter of Marino 52.2
Confessions: 49.8
To add to this, please copy and paste AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END
And before adding your predictions, go to the end of the comments and choose the latest update!
Don. You are on high rotation!
Fess, is your estimate 49.8 or 59.8?
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.6. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
Taylormade : 48
JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
Peter of Marino 52.2
Confessions: 49.8
Psyclaw 52.1 and a majority of 8 or 9
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Ok, I have done the last update. If people cannot follow the instructions to copy and paste from the latest version, they will just have to hang their heads in shame as shirkers of the competition :).
Tom.
nappin
Wednesday, April 20, 2016 at 7:39 pm
Don. You are on high rotation!
*************
I know, I just can’t stand to see bad data!
To keep election predictions for posterity from an iPad, take a screenshot (push home button while depressing the on/off switch). Alternatively, copy and past into a note (Notes App).
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.6. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
Taylormade : 48
JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
Peter of Marino 52.2
Confessions: 49.8
Psyclaw 52.1 and a majority of 8 or 9
Dan G 51.5
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“To add to this, please copy and past AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END”
I don’t think this method works, as there are too many overlapping versions of the list going around.
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.6. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
Taylormade : 48
JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
Peter of Marino 52.2
Confessions: 49.8
Psyclaw 52.1 and a majority of 8 or 9
Steve777: 49.6
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try a version number at the end of the list…add 1 to the number after each update….then look for the latest number before you update it…
ScoMo’s interview on 7.30 just now:
For someone who has no chance of winning the next election, Bill Shorten sure seems to be scaring the beejesus out of the Liberals.
don:
49.8%. Earlier was a typo.
Speaking of NXT (as Simon not-the-cricketer) just did, the latest national Morgan showed their vote at 4.5%. Now young Nick has a lot of admirers outside SA, but I doubt that many are thinking of voting for his party. So assuming all his supporters are in SA (11 electorates out of 150), that would make his support in SA 61%. Assuming 1% of folk outside SA support him, that brings the SA vote down to 40%. Or if it’s 2% outside SA it comes down to 36%. And I can’t believe that more than 2% are saying “we’ll vote NXT” outside SA – so their support in SA is somewhere between 36 and 60%. I asked Ant Green a few months ago how many seats he’d have to allow for NXT in SA if he wasn’t just using old Reps figures and he said “It’s impossible to guess, but maybe all of them!” I’m starting to think that could be right – but it would be nice to see an SA poll with a decent number of respondents.
Most of the forecasts listed are clustered around the apparent state of the polls today. Implicitly, these forecasts mean the apparent motion in favour of Labor will soon come to rest if it has not already done so. But this ignores the reasons for the motion in the first place. The factors that have drawn voters to Labor are still in play and will continue to attract support as more voters focus on political events and as the election approaches.
It’s worth recalling that the election has yet to be actually called. Everything that has happened recently is merely anticipation of a poll in the context of disappointment. Once the Parliament is dismissed and full campaigning starts, disengaged and undecided voters – in their millions – will start to determine their intentions. As this occurs, Labor are highly likely to accumulate yet more support.
In the middle of Morrison’s blathering, did I miss the bit where Leigh Sales challenged him on why the “immediate action necessary” he was going on about doesn’t happen till 2017?
No? Thought not.
And why did she ask such a stupid question at the end about whether he was ” feeling the pressure ” re the budget – dead set gift for a motor mouth like him to go on about something else. Appealing interviewing!
It lost mine
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Jen 51.3
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
Puff, the Magic Dragon 52.8
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http://www.pcworld.idg.com.au/article/597042/ideas-boom-bust-where-national-innovation-science-agenda-went-wrong/
and
and
What a happy trio
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2016/apr/18/polls-on-a-knife-edge-as-parliament-resumes-for-a-special-sitting-politics-live#img-1
Bushfire Bill
Wednesday, April 20, 2016 at 7:48 pm
ScoMo’s interview on 7.30 just now:
Thanks Leigh………… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill
This just summarises the pickle that Turnbull, Morrison et al are in. Everything they are now doing is a reaction to what Shorten and Labor have proposed.
$121m to the banks is peanuts. And how did they arrive at that figure anyhow, did ScoMo just pull it out of his arse? Were is the cost analysis for chasing bad banking practice down hundred’s of rabbit holes. I doubt $1.21 billion would be enough.
What a lovely video.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2016/apr/20/grammar-snobs-are-patronising-pretentious-and-just-plain-wrong-video
Motor Mouth interview on 7.30 just now:
Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill
He should try it a little slower and a little variation.
Motor Mouth interview on 7.30 just now:
Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill Shorten… Bill
mikehilliard
How ? Here’s a hint .
“ASIC funding boost to restore Abbott-era cuts and enhance surveillance”
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/20/asic-funding-boost-to-restore-abbott-era-cuts-and-enhance-surveillance
Secondly . The banks pay it ? Sacre beaujolais !! even such ash tray money will be paid for one way or another by we the customers by way of adding fees and charges.
Have tampermonkey and cccp.
Page #’s and preview. 🙂
Thanks all! 🙂
Blah blah blah is what I can describe best from LNP.
a few having gotten dropped from the list, sorted.
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
BK: 50.4
booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
Briefly: 54.5
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
imacca: 52
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Jen 51.3
JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
K17: 54
Matt31: 49.2
Peter of Marino 52.2
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
Puff, the Magic Dragon 52.8
Shiftaling: 52.7
Socrates 50.5
Taylormade : 48
Tom: 53
Yabba88: 51.7
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You’ve got to wonder if they will even have a budget on 3 May. Turnbull will want to offer fistfuls of dollars and maybe even soak the rich, in a desperate bid to save his arse. ScoMo will pull out the prosperity bible and say that is total wickedness. Their poor relationship is obviously going to get a lot worse. I wonder if Malcolm will even know what’s in the budget before it’s delivered.
Im too lazy to spam possible election outcomes on crikey.