The latest ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has the two parties level on two-party preferred, after the Coalition led 52-48 in last month’s poll, and 54-46 in the poll before that. Full results should be up on the ReachTEL site shortly.
UPDATE: And here they are. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down from 46.6% to 43.5%, Labor is up from 34.4% to 35.8%, the Greens are down from 10.5% to 9.8%, and the Nick Xenophon Team supplants Palmer United as the poll’s fifth option, registering 3.8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister is down only slightly, from 60-40 to 58.4-41.6, but his combined very good and good rating is down from 29.6% to 25.5%, with poor plus very poor up from 34.1% to 36.6%. Shorten’s ratings are respectively up from 21.1% to 23.4%, and down from 47.3% to 42.4%. Respondents were asked to rate Scott Morrison’s performance as Treasurer, recording 21.5% very good plus good and 37.2% very poor plus poor, with 37.0% opting for average, and to indicate whether they thought Turnbull was a better (53.0%) or worse (18.3%) prime minister than Tony Abbott. A question on a royal commission into the banking sector found 54.1% supportive and 18.3% opposed. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2415, which is a bit smaller than the ReachTEL norm.
briefly, 140
[On the face of it, 6 LNP and 5 Labor Senators …and a Green in each State. Of course, this would be modified by Xenophon, Lambie, maybe Lazarus and the impact of exhausting votes. It does’t look like a Lib Senate. There will likely be Labor gains, Green losses.]
I think the Greens will get 9 Senators, I can’t see them losing a Senate seat anywhere other than SA (ie 2 WA, 2 VIC, 2 TAS and 1 the rest, worst case scenario).
Can’t answer your HTV questions yet, but I’m inclined to say yes 🙂
If Bronwyn Bishop wins pre-selection tomorrow in Mackellar she will be the hangnail in Malcolm Turnbull’s political coffin.
Yes being they will preference the ALP above the LNP
[William, if you’re reading.
The boxes and curves, top and bottom right on your PPM graph are misaligned.
Someone else pointed it out before, but I missed if you replied.]
So it is/was. Thanks to you, and whoever the other person was.
NXT on 3.8%?!
Given X doesn’t have a high profile outside SA and SA would only be 10% of the sample, X must be pulling big numbers in SA. You’d have to think X is drawing votes off the Libs.
It’s time, 155
I think Xenophon pulled a bit of the vote off the ALP too (which was covered up by gains), and a bit of the protest vote off the Greens. 4% is very good for NXT anyhow.
C@tmomma@152
And it turns out that ‘loyal tony’ is unsurprisingly ‘loyal’ right up to the day that he’s not.
Karma hitting BBsip and abbott right where is matters.
Again!
Noice…
[The question for the G’s will be whether they put out HTV’s that favour Labor ahead of the LNP.
Will they help elect new Labor Senators?]
The question for the Labor will be whether they put out HTV’s that favour the G’s ahead of the LNP.
Will they help elect new G Senators?
Just saw the innovation ad on tv. Inspired I leaped onto their site (innovation.gov.au) and started showing agility as I navigated around the site.
What an uninspiring heap of rubbish. I wanted to see how it would help me if I wanted to be innovative and found a lot of information that said nothing.
I guess it was an electronic version of what comes out of their mouths.
lizzie
Nick Cave (and Matt Moffitt) are familiar things to me.
Shit happens.
Hey Bemused and Imacca
You are such military brains trusts. You has better take your military wisdom along to the US Congress. Funnily enough they do not dismiss China’s capacity as you pair do.
https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdf
PeeBee @ 159
It looks and reads like an election policy, not a serious government program.
daretotread@161
Don’t verbal me. Or Imacca.
I made no such claims.
briefly@140
It will be very surprising if the Greens do not get two in Tasmania. If Lambie gets up too then that’s 5 for one major and 4 for another. The Tassie Libs should get the five in theory but are doing everything in their power to fail.
Rewi @ 61
Good point – hadn’t thought of that – clever question then
So, Badgerys Creek may become an election issue. Anyone would think that this “government” is incompetent 🙂
Yesterday, one of the justices presiding over the hearing, Justice John Griffiths, asked Mr Doyle three times whether the Government would commit to building the airport and not something else on the site.
Mr Doyle said yesterday that Badgerys Creek had been declared an airport site, but there was no specific proposal for the airport yet.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-15/badgerys-creek-residents-still-waiting-on-government-answers/7331562
Tom.
It’s Time@155
X is polling 17% in SA in this poll. One of the curious things about the national 3.8% is NXT aren’t running in every seat so a lot of that may not get the chance to translate to votes.
Another note (unrelated to the above): the 2PP in this poll before rounding was 50.4 to Coalition. Contra to Seven News’ hung parliament nonsense, that would translate into about 79-80 Coalition seats on average.
From Lenore Taylor a neat bit of pointing out the emptiness of the anti tax-concession crackdown arguments:
[But much of Labor’s revenue raising comes from reducing tax concessions used mostly by the wealthy – on superannuation and negative gearing, for instance – or from changing the rules to circumvent some of the multinationals’ rampant tax minimisation. (Morrison’s backers sometimes switch arguments here and argue “class warfare”, which somewhat contradicts the “increase the tax burden on ordinary Australians” point.)]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/15/pesky-facts-are-spoiling-scott-morrisons-economic-story
The only thing the Coalition wants to transform Australia into is the Saudi Arabia of coal, complete with indentured labor.
Steve777, 169
Shame we wouldn’t get the free healthcare though. (If you’re a citizen of course)
[ Hey Bemused and Imacca ]
Whatever dtt. 🙂
Have to admit it takes some political genius for Turnbull to take the LNP towards the middle and lose support from everywhere.
Coming in late and it may have already been said, but if voter concern over a hung parliament really is an issue (and it seems a little arcane for most people who are probably just trying to vote according to principle or make whatever decision that they believe benefits either themselves their own or is best the country as a whole) wouldn’t they be more likely contrast Labor favourably with the inability of the Coalition to handle the crossbencg
Bemused
You made some silly comment about Chinese submarines and quality etc. This was to imply that although matching in number the Chinese subs were backward etc. Which was probably quite true in 1990, but the world has moved on.
I first read of the strength of the Chinese navy about 4 years ago and was quite surprised. According to the US Congress at least 41 of those 65 sub are modern attack craft. It presumably is growing very fast.
Now why is this relevant. Now my instinct has been since I was about 6 years old for Australia to be independent and NOT to be too closely linked to the USA. However I did recognise that there was an argument for licking portions of the US collective anatomy, because their superior strenghth would protect us from the baddies. (I said it was an argument, not that I agreed with it). However if we make a judgement call that in fact that military superiority of our big protector is no longer overwhelming, it sort of makes the case for bown tonguing less persuasive.
The trend is consistent and i think gaining momentum to drop this appalling bunch of intellectual and moral crooks that is the contemporary LNP.
I must admit i am surprised by how bad Turnbull is as PM.
He seems bored with and disinterested in the job. Maybe the RWNJ which make up the “real” Liberal Party have cowed him.
He seems to be a PM in name only. He communicates no real values…no change from the same old Liberal anti-learning, anti-science, homophobic, crony capitalism.
Hopefully Labor is developing a backbone and will fight for fairness, a commitment to the value of public service and to commit to reforming our appalling (capitalist) institutions.
For a start:
– Remove ALL corporate money from politics
– Make government truly open and accountable
– Ban secret meetings of ministers with lobbyists/ require all meetings to be recorded and published.
– Reform the electoral system to make it more democratic
– strengthen public broadcasting and protect it from political interference
– enact restrictions on concentration of media ownership/control
– Remove politicians corrupt control over town planning/development, the education system, the medical system et al.
– Require public plebiscites for treaties that diminish Australian sovereignty.
– Introduce a Bill of Rights to protect Australians from politicians/government.
– Commence a process to make the European construct of “Australia” reflect indigenous philosophical and cultural understanding of our land and develop changes to our constitution, government processes and environmental management to reflect this.
– In the meantime slow population growth until the country knows what it is and wants to be.
164
Kevin Bonham
Thanks Kevin. Do you think Lambie has a chance of being returned?
[174
daretotread
I first read of the strength of the Chinese navy about 4 years ago and was quite surprised. According to the US Congress at least 41 of those 65 sub are modern attack craft. It presumably is growing very fast.]
The hawks in US defence love all this. Last time they had a real military opponent was before Gorbachev. They will characterise China as an enemy one way or another. I can see the merit from their point of view: relevance again after decades of futility.
daretotread@174
They have a handful of nuclear subs and the rest are conventional and mostly old designs. They are mainly for coastal defence.
For the present and some time into the future the US has a significant technological lead.
Of course this does not suit the military industrial complex which has an insatiable appetite for funding.
If Labor does win this year, Australia will have had six Prime Ministers (and seven Prime Ministerships) in a decade (2007-2016). Not quite Rome’s Year of the four Emperors (AD 68-69) but right up there with the first decade of Federation (1901-10, when six PMs and 8 PMships).
And should that happen, and should Shorten settle in for a couple of terms, history will forever (or for as long as anyone cares about early 21st century Australia) bracket Turnbull with Abbott, just as Gillard is permanently bracketed with Rudd. And the four will end up bracketed together.
If Shorten wins and doesn’t last long, history will bracket him with all the others: RGRATS.
[167
Kevin Bonham
One of the curious things about the national 3.8% is NXT aren’t running in every seat so a lot of that may not get the chance to translate to votes.]
The NXT vote suggests disaffection among the small-l lib community. They’re not happy. Fortunately for the country, in the absence of a NXT candidate, these voters will gravitate to Labor, the party of modernity, reason, optimism and unity of purpose. We should add most of these votes to Labor’s PV 🙂
Swamprat @ 175 – add to that, that no MP is to be employed by any company that operated within an MP’s sphere of influence for a minimum of 5 years after exiting parliament. I beliene that this is standard in the UK and USA, although I am not sure of the time limits.
Tom.
I believe that I cannot spell believe 🙂
Tom.
This is the comment I just posted under Peter Hartcher’s article:
[ Well, Mark Textor’s smooth talking and use of a buzzword to hang an election campaign on, absent substance, has certainly worked on Peter Hartcher. To him winning an election for the Coalition is as simple as some flim flam, feelgood ads, some over-exaggerated and misleading mischaracterisation of the Opposition Leader, and a fistful of dollars to throw into the ;pork barrel when needed.
Plus, Peter Hartcher thinks that the Coalition going, ‘Trust us’ will do the trick. When all the evidence over the last 4 years, since the run-up to the 2013 election, tells us that the Coalition are prepared to do anything, and say anything, to win the election. After the election is when you see the real agenda taken out of the bottom drawer.
No doubt we’ll also get the schmaltzy glossy booklet thrust at us again with everyone in the ‘Leadership Team’ looking purposeful and resolute. Inside will be a wadge of amorphous meaningless drivel.
What we won’t get is tin tacks about a plan to make this fabled ‘transition’ because the little we have gotten from the Turnbull government so far has equated to yet another set of tax concessions for the Coalition’s business cronies.
On the other hand, Labor are concentrating on doing unsexy stuff like making sure we can all send our kids to a good school and obtain a high standard of medical care when we need it. Also that our wages and jobs aren’t consumed by the China Disease, the other side of the ‘Made In China’ coin, which sees our home-grown industries unable to compete with the behemoth production lines in China that churn out so much of everything for so much less and pay their workers so much less than ours too.
Yes, there’s two sides to every coin. ]
[183
C@tmomma
This is the comment I just posted under Peter Hartcher’s article:
Well, Mark Textor’s smooth talking and use of a buzzword…]
What is Textor’s theme?
Briefly
Yes you have a point. The military certainly love to hype up the enemy.
However there seems to be something in the Chinese technological advances.
daretotread@185
Like?
C@tmomma
Excellent retort! 🙂
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/04/australias-health-star-ratings-farce/
Something to think about …
Bemused
Are you sure of your data? Apparently 7 of the Chinese subs a modern nuclear ones with two more in production. Sort of a big handful. However I guess when compared with the USA’s 75 nuclear powerd ships it is small.
Mind you I have no real idea what the advantages are of a nuclear powered ship is – I guess it can stay at sea longer. Really ONLY an advantage in offensive actions.
daretotread@189
For a start, years between refuelling and can stay underwater a very long time.
bemused
For cryiong out bloody loud. You’re the military man – you tell me!!!
Those who write about this stuff seem to think that the modern submarines are pretty good. Not as good as the US or Russian ones but still very good.
Bemused this is a serious question so do not go into attack/ defence over drive
Can submarine crew actually stay at sea a very long time or do you risk the guys going stir crazy? In other words is staying at sea one of those fancy “apps” that look good on paper but are actually pretty useless.
[Swamprat @ 175 – add to that, that no MP is to be employed by any company that operated within an MP’s sphere of influence for a minimum of 5 years after exiting parliament. I beliene that this is standard in the UK and USA, although I am not sure of the time limits.
Tom.]
Agreed
Steve777@179
And if the LNP manage to scrap too, I’m not very confident that Turnbull will be rewarded enough to actually hold onto that leadership by the end of next term.
I meant to say “scrap through”.
daretotread@191
This is a crazy assertion. I was in the RAAF several decades ago. I now am a lay person in matters military although I do take an interest.
I know nothing about submarines but:
1. The Germans have a long history of unterwasserboats (?)
2. German engineering is of a high standard.
3. I do not think we should give $50 Billion to support barbaric whale killers.
All this means we will choose Japanese, of course.
briefly,
Malcolm Turnbull’s election pitch stamped ‘Made in China’
[ Malcolm Turnbull has pulled out the biggest campaign prop ever used by an Australian prime minister.
With 1.4 billion people and an $US11 trillion-a-year economy, it’s many times bigger than Australia itself. It is, of course, the People’s Republic of China. His visit to China this week is the only overseas trip he’s making during the quasi campaign phase in between his demarche to the Senate and formally calling the election.
Of course, it’s good policy to make a prime ministerial courtesy call on your major trading partner in any case. Especially when you’ve already paid ritual regards to Indonesia and made the obligatory genuflection to Washington.
But the government has decided that it’s also good politics.
Why? Because Australia’s economic “transition” is going to be central to the election campaign. And China is the source of that transition.
It’s not the prettiest word in the English language, but you’re going to be hearing “transition” a great deal in the months ahead. The government is already shaping the narrative. The storyline runs like this:
1. Australia went through a vast mining boom thanks to China. That boom is now over thanks to China.
2. There is new growth phase afoot in China. Australia is making the transition to ride that new growth. Australia will enjoy more jobs and growth thanks to China.
3. You can trust the government to manage the transition.
4. You cannot trust Labor with the transition.
That’s about it. It’s a theme geared to a nation that is sick of political shenanigans, anxious about the economic future, and looking for stability and prosperity.
The election theme is already before us, hiding in plain view. Three cases in point. First, the Treasurer, Scott Morrison, has been talking for weeks about Australia’s “successful transition”.
“So,” he said in a recent interview, “our economy is transitioning. It is well synchronised with what is happening in China.”
On Thursday he said that Australia would “continue to transition through what is a tough economy globally. The Prime Minister is in China today, and working on those further relationships.”
Second, so has Turnbull. He set out the story as soon as he touched down in Shanghai on Thursday.
China’s “demand for Australian resources, across this great nation of 1.4billion people, has underpinned the greatest run of unbroken prosperity Australians have ever known,” he told a gathering of some 2000 business people over lunch. “Now, however, as we all know, China is transitioning away from reliance on construction and resource-intensive industry.”
“And this structural change is driving parallel changes in our own economy,” he said. “And the challenges and opportunities presented by this deep structural change explain why every element of my government’s economic plan is working to continue our successful transition to a stronger, more diversified, more innovative 21st century economy.”
The good news, he said, was that Australia was already most of the way through the transition:
“But we cannot afford to be complacent. We have to get our policies right to be more productive, more competitive, more innovative. It is with these objectives in mind that we embrace all of the extraordinary opportunities presented by China’s own economic transition towards a more consumption-driven economy.”
By visiting China, Turnbull has come to the source of the “transition”. And he wants to be seen as the trusted custodian of it. ]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-election-pitch-stamped-made-in-china-20160415-go7jt3.html#ixzz45tucYo5E
daretotread@192
They are carefully selected and go through extensive testing.
It is not for everyone and I have only known one submariner.
They not only stay at sea but remain submerged for extended periods of time in very cramped quarters.
gecko,
Thank you. 😳