ReachTEL: 50-50

ReachTEL has become the latest poll from which Malcolm Turnbull’s honeymoon lead of late last year has vanished altogether.

The latest ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has the two parties level on two-party preferred, after the Coalition led 52-48 in last month’s poll, and 54-46 in the poll before that. Full results should be up on the ReachTEL site shortly.

UPDATE: And here they are. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down from 46.6% to 43.5%, Labor is up from 34.4% to 35.8%, the Greens are down from 10.5% to 9.8%, and the Nick Xenophon Team supplants Palmer United as the poll’s fifth option, registering 3.8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister is down only slightly, from 60-40 to 58.4-41.6, but his combined very good and good rating is down from 29.6% to 25.5%, with poor plus very poor up from 34.1% to 36.6%. Shorten’s ratings are respectively up from 21.1% to 23.4%, and down from 47.3% to 42.4%. Respondents were asked to rate Scott Morrison’s performance as Treasurer, recording 21.5% very good plus good and 37.2% very poor plus poor, with 37.0% opting for average, and to indicate whether they thought Turnbull was a better (53.0%) or worse (18.3%) prime minister than Tony Abbott. A question on a royal commission into the banking sector found 54.1% supportive and 18.3% opposed. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2415, which is a bit smaller than the ReachTEL norm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,131 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 50-50”

  1. The gross white privilege shown by some Sanders supporters especially the millionaire celebrity types like Susan Sarandon, Tim Robbins and Rosario Dawson has put lie to Sanders faux concern for the little people…

    Rosario Dawson shows white privilege?

    As usually you trot out hastily digested talking points without having the slightest clue about what you are saying.

  2. [What should you do if you do find a big spider in your car or living room? First, get a grip! She isn’t going to hurt you.

    …In 14 years of studying Aussie huntsman spiders, I’ve handled many thousands of individuals and been bitten only 11 times when I (mostly) deserved it. Their fangs are big enough to break skin, but the venom rarely has much effect.]

    https://theconversation.com/hidden-housemates-australias-huge-and-hairy-huntsman-spiders-55017

  3. Colton

    Quick googlish shows that 44% of recent college graduate do not have a job that requires a degree – which means they are working for $12/hr (or less) and still have $30,000 owing. Not sure how priveleged they feel.

  4. Bronnie has about one week to write her tell-all book and get it published before nobody gives a s… I don’t think that is going to happen.

  5. The new ‘member for Fisher’, replacing Mal Brough. Good to see that one of his highest qualifications will be common sense. Always goes down well with Lib voters.

    [Mr Wallace said he was very keen to take the fight up to Labor at the next election.

    “I’ve got a trade background as well as a professional background. I think probably one of my biggest benefits will be common sense and that’s what I intend to bring as the member for Fisher,” he said.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-17/mal-brough-replacement-chosen-by-lnp-with-fresh-start-promise/7333154?section=qld

  6. In the Michigan primary exit poll Bernie Sanders won the votes of 48% of voters on incomes of less than $30k; 54% of voters on incomes between $30k and $50k; 50% of voters on incomes between $50k and $100k; and 48% of voters on incomes between $100k and $200k. The claim that Bernie Sanders is running a boutique campaign that appeals chiefly to high income earners is completely incorrect. Exit polls from other primaries bear this out. Race and age are the demographic variables that differ appreciably between the two candidates’ voters. Not income level.
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/mi/Dem

  7. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@1105

    Bronnie has about one week to write her tell-all book and get it published before nobody gives a s… I don’t think that is going to happen.

    She could ‘further’ tanish abbott/ credlin saying it was all their fault etc on a range of matters.

    The fly in the ointment is she went along with it all….so much for being an ‘impartial’ speaker.

    All of what she might say will be regarded as sour grapes.

    But if it gets the tories a day or so of bad media it won’t be a waste.

    And bronny – regarded publicly as a tory rat?

    Her erstwhile fellow travellers might have a few tales to ell about her as well.

    Moe popcorn! 🙂

  8. pom@1110

    I think windows 10 is a free upgrade from windows 8.1

    Yep it is.

    Its also ‘apparently’ the last version of Windows.

    Future changes to Windows will apparently just be pushed out as needed etc without version numbers.

    Much of Win10 is positioning MS to make money out of the data they mine from machines etc. Lots of reporting back if you don’t close it down. Closing it down effectively is the important bit as updates can turn it all back on apparently ?

    win 10 – disable spying
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1kGMCfb2xw

    Why no Win 9 ?

    One of the stories I’ve seen is that legacy bits of snippets of coding still reference Win95 and Win97 and it was thought that the ‘9’ bit might cause problems ?

    I’m sure there are others versions to this story.

  9. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/voters-expected-more-poll-20160417-go8b73.html
    [Fairfax-Ipsos poll points to knife-edge election between Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten
    April 17, 2016 – 6:55PM
    Mark Kenny
    Chief political correspondent

    The Turnbull government’s strong lead over the opposition has evaporated just as it enters a risky three-week special sitting of Parliament, secure an unlikely political bounce from a tight budget, and justify an early election on July 2.

    Months of perceived government dithering over tax reform and more recently, indifference over the banks, coupled with disappointment over social policy and confusion over hospitals and schools, have savaged Mr Turnbull’s previously stratospheric personal standing, and wiped out his government’s poll advantage.

    The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll conducted over the weekend put support for the Coalition and Labor across the country on a knife-edge at 50-50, assuming an allocation of preferences similar to those at the last election.

    The national survey of 1402 electors was conducted between April 14-16 and showed support for the Coalition had dropped by a statistically significant 3 percentage points since the March poll.

    This equates to a 3.5 per cent swing away from the Coalition’s share of the vote achieved at the September 2013 election, raising the prospect the election could produce a government with a wafer-thin majority or even another hung Parliament.

    The Prime Minister’s net approval rating has dropped by 10 points since March and his preferred prime minister rating has also fallen by seven points over that time, although he still leads Opposition Leader Bill Shorten comfortably on that head-to-head comparison with double the support at 54-27.]

  10. Bluey Bulletin No 28 Day 28 of 103

    MSM TWIGS
    Bluey reckons that the MSM have finally twigged that we are in lockstep with the US on defence and with China on trade. Bluey reckons talk about doing the national splits. We can’t do cringe-worthy crawling to both of them 100% at the same time without a bit of the old cognitive dissonance.

    ADF WELFARE CHEATS
    Some Liberal genius reckons that if you live on tax dollars you are on welfare. Bluey wonders whether they have run that past the ADF who are risking their lives in Iraq and Afghanistan. Bluey also wonders whether the MP cretins have worked out that Liberal MPs are on welfare. Bluey reckons all idiot and no savant.

    BRONNIE: BUSTER BUSTER BUSTER (one for CTaR1)
    Bluey shed a tear while restraining himself from using terms such ‘failed battleaxe’. Bluey also reckons that Bronnie is an exponent of all that is evil in the Raving Right and that she will do her best to make people pay for her humiliation. She does good hate.

    THREE LITTLE SLEAZEBAGS SITTING IN A ROW?
    Bluey wonders whether the Liberals will go for the trifecta after Slipper and Brough. Surely they will try for three sleazebags in a row?

    FARMGATE JOYCE
    Bluey reckons hyuk hyuk.

    BEYOND SLOGANS
    Bluey reckons that economically illiterate occies could do worse than having a squiz at Lenore Tayler’s article.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/15/pesky-facts-are-spoiling-scott-morrisons-economic-story

    CODE BLUE
    Bluey is a bit surprised that everyone in the sports world got in a tizz about Lord Pollywaffle of the Swimming Pool saying hyperbowlic things about the AFL. Hey guys, it does not matter. Really.

    TRUCKS
    Bluey’s bucolic existence was disturbed by the sound of less than .01 % of the nation’s truck owners rumbling over the Commonwealth Bridge tooting their horns and doing their air brakes.

    Bluey is grateful that the Cash’s shrieks of doom did not penetrate far through the murky depths of the non-pelucid waters of LBG. Bluey trusts that henceforth the only people who are road killed or collaterally maimed as a consequence of idiot truckie triumphalism are trucking magnates, their families, their investors and their gormless Liberal toyboys and toygirls. Bluey is not optimistic about this.

    Verdict for the day. Evens.

    Cumulative tally: Labor 19.5 Liberals 8.5

  11. Bluey Bulletin No 28 Day 28 of 103

    MSM TWIGS
    Bluey reckons that the MSM have finally twigged that we are in lockstep with the US on defence and with China on trade. Bluey reckons talk about doing the national splits. We can’t do cringe-worthy crawling to both of them 100% at the same time without a bit of the old cognitive dissonance.

    ADF WELFARE CHEATS
    Some Liberal genius reckons that if you live on tax dollars you are on welfare. Bluey wonders whether they have run that past the ADF who are risking their lives in Iraq and Afghanistan. Bluey also wonders whether the MP cretins have worked out that Liberal MPs are on welfare. Bluey reckons all idiot and no savant.

    BRONNIE: BUSTER BUSTER BUSTER (one for CTaR1)
    Bluey shed a tear while restraining himself from using terms such ‘failed battleaxe’. Bluey also reckons that Bronnie is an exponent of all that is evil in the Raving Right and that she will do her best to make people pay for her humiliation. She does good hate.

    THREE LITTLE SLEAZEBAGS SITTING IN A ROW?
    Bluey wonders whether the Liberals will go for the trifecta after Slipper and Brough. Surely they will try for three sleazebags in a row?

    FARMGATE JOYCE
    Bluey reckons hyuk hyuk.

    BEYOND SLOGANS
    Bluey reckons that economically illiterate occies could do worse than having a squiz at Lenore Tayler’s article.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/15/pesky-facts-are-spoiling-scott-morrisons-economic-story

    CODE BLUE
    Bluey is a bit surprised that everyone in the sports world got in a tizz about Lord Pollywaffle of the Swimming Pool saying hyperbowlic things about the AFL. Hey guys, it does not matter. Really.

    TRUCKS
    Bluey’s bucolic existence was disturbed by the sound of less than .01 % of the nation’s truck owners rumbling over the Commonwealth Bridge tooting their horns and doing their air brakes.

    Bluey is grateful that the Cash’s shrieks of doom did not penetrate far through the murky depths of the non-pelucid waters of LBG. Bluey trusts that henceforth the only people who are road killed or collaterally maimed as a consequence of idiot truckie triumphalism are trucking magnates, their families, their investors and their gormless Liberal toyboys and toygirls. Bluey is not optimistic about this.

    Verdict for the day. Evens.

    Cumulative tally: Labor 19.5 Liberals 8.5

  12. Bluey Bulletin No 28 Day 28 of 103

    MSM TWIGS
    Bluey reckons that the MSM have finally twigged that we are in lockstep with the US on defence and with China on trade. Bluey reckons talk about doing the national splits. We can’t do cringe-worthy crawling to both of them 100% at the same time without a bit of the old cognitive dissonance.

    ADF WELFARE CHEATS
    Some Liberal genius reckons that if you live on tax dollars you are on welfare. Bluey wonders whether they have run that past the ADF who are risking their lives in Iraq and Afghanistan. Bluey also wonders whether the MP cretins have worked out that Liberal MPs are on welfare. Bluey reckons all idiot and no savant.

    BRONNIE: BUSTER BUSTER BUSTER (one for CTaR1)
    Bluey shed a tear while restraining himself from using terms such ‘failed battleaxe’. Bluey also reckons that Bronnie is an exponent of all that is evil in the Raving Right and that she will do her best to make people pay for her humiliation. She does good hate.

    THREE LITTLE SLEAZEBAGS SITTING IN A ROW?
    Bluey wonders whether the Liberals will go for the trifecta after Slipper and Brough. Surely they will try for three sleazebags in a row?

    FARMGATE JOYCE
    Bluey reckons hyuk hyuk.

    BEYOND SLOGANS
    Bluey reckons that economically illiterate occies could do worse than having a squiz at Lenore Tayler’s article.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/15/pesky-facts-are-spoiling-scott-morrisons-economic-story

    CODE BLUE
    Bluey is a bit surprised that everyone in the sports world got in a tizz about Lord Pollywaffle of the Swimming Pool saying hyperbowlic things about the AFL. Hey guys, it does not matter. Really.

    TRUCKS
    Bluey’s bucolic existence was disturbed by the sound of less than .01 % of the nation’s truck owners rumbling over the Commonwealth Bridge tooting their horns and doing their air brakes.

    Bluey is grateful that the Cash’s shrieks of doom did not penetrate far through the murky depths of the non-pelucid waters of LBG. Bluey trusts that henceforth the only people who are road killed or collaterally maimed as a consequence of idiot truckie triumphalism are trucking magnates, their families, their investors and their gormless Liberal toyboys and toygirls. Bluey is not optimistic about this.

    Verdict for the day. Evens.

    Cumulative tally: Labor 19.5 Liberals 8.5

  13. Bluey Bulletin No 28 Day 28 of 103

    MSM TWIGS
    Bluey reckons that the MSM have finally twigged that we are in lockstep with the US on defence and with China on trade. Bluey reckons talk about doing the national splits. We can’t do cringe-worthy crawling to both of them 100% at the same time without a bit of the old cognitive dissonance.

    ADF WELFARE CHEATS
    Some Liberal genius reckons that if you live on tax dollars you are on welfare. Bluey wonders whether they have run that past the ADF who are risking their lives in Iraq and Afghanistan. Bluey also wonders whether the MP cretins have worked out that Liberal MPs are on welfare. Bluey reckons all idiot and no savant.

    BRONNIE: BUSTER BUSTER BUSTER (one for CTaR1)
    Bluey shed a tear while restraining himself from using terms such ‘failed battleaxe’. Bluey also reckons that Bronnie is an exponent of all that is evil in the Raving Right and that she will do her best to make people pay for her humiliation. She does good hate.

    THREE LITTLE SLEAZEBAGS SITTING IN A ROW?
    Bluey wonders whether the Liberals will go for the trifecta after Slipper and Brough. Surely they will try for three sleazebags in a row?

    FARMGATE JOYCE
    Bluey reckons hyuk hyuk.

    BEYOND SLOGANS
    Bluey reckons that economically illiterate occies could do worse than having a squiz at Lenore Tayler’s article.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/15/pesky-facts-are-spoiling-scott-morrisons-economic-story

    CODE BLUE
    Bluey is a bit surprised that everyone in the sports world got in a tizz about Lord Pollywaffle of the Swimming Pool saying hyperbowlic things about the AFL. Hey guys, it does not matter. Really.

    TRUCKS
    Bluey’s bucolic existence was disturbed by the sound of less than .01 % of the nation’s truck owners rumbling over the Commonwealth Bridge tooting their horns and doing their air brakes.

    Bluey is grateful that the Cash’s shrieks of doom did not penetrate far through the murky depths of the non-pelucid waters of LBG. Bluey trusts that henceforth the only people who are road killed or collaterally maimed as a consequence of idiot truckie triumphalism are trucking magnates, their families, their investors and their gormless Liberal toyboys and toygirls. Bluey is not optimistic about this.

    Verdict for the day. Evens.

    Cumulative tally: Labor 19.5 Liberals 8.5

  14. Labor and the Unions did NOT campaign against the China/Australia Free Trade Agreement!

    Turnbull is lying to Uhlmann on the ABC News!

  15. So Turnbull is planning to let ASIC loose to conduct an Inquiry into the Banks in order to counteract the Labor Party call for a Royal Commission.

    A Toothless Tiger gumming the Banks into a faux submission.

    A Show Inquiry.

  16. Bang! Bang! Bang! the Anti Union drum! That’s all Turnbull could do on ABC24 just now. It’s all he’s got!

    The way he and Barnaby Joyce were going on you’d think that Unions worked to LOWER workers pay and conditions and REDUCED their safety at work!

    I hope people in the electorate realise that the only thing between them and Social Darwinism in the workplace is the constant campaigning by Unions on things like Worker Health and Safety and Penalty Rates.

    I hope they look at the subtext to the Union-busting Truck parade we saw today in Canberra and see it for what it is.

    Union Busting = Worker Busting

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