The latest ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has the two parties level on two-party preferred, after the Coalition led 52-48 in last month’s poll, and 54-46 in the poll before that. Full results should be up on the ReachTEL site shortly.
UPDATE: And here they are. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down from 46.6% to 43.5%, Labor is up from 34.4% to 35.8%, the Greens are down from 10.5% to 9.8%, and the Nick Xenophon Team supplants Palmer United as the poll’s fifth option, registering 3.8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister is down only slightly, from 60-40 to 58.4-41.6, but his combined very good and good rating is down from 29.6% to 25.5%, with poor plus very poor up from 34.1% to 36.6%. Shorten’s ratings are respectively up from 21.1% to 23.4%, and down from 47.3% to 42.4%. Respondents were asked to rate Scott Morrison’s performance as Treasurer, recording 21.5% very good plus good and 37.2% very poor plus poor, with 37.0% opting for average, and to indicate whether they thought Turnbull was a better (53.0%) or worse (18.3%) prime minister than Tony Abbott. A question on a royal commission into the banking sector found 54.1% supportive and 18.3% opposed. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2415, which is a bit smaller than the ReachTEL norm.
lizzie@1049
You are running Windows 10? Wow! Up with the latest. 😀
I am still on 8.1 and Chrome is my browser of choice.
bemused
It was a free upgrade and I can’t resist that sort of bargain!
Darren Laver @ 1050
Agree totally.
Bernie has spent his whole political career as an independent; his success has been aided by the Democratic Party not running against him.
He’s full of himself.
DLaver
Although not technically a Democrat, Saunders did/does caucus with the Democratic party. (Angus King of Maine, another Independent Senator, also caucuses with the Dems.)
I agree. There’s not much mud left to throw at Hillary. Plus, the Republicans kind of like the spectacle of Bernie taking the fight to her.
But I find the idea very hard to swallow that a self-styled socialist could win a general election – even if the opponent is Trump.
lizzie@1052
So how did you get that article to appear in Edge? What did you click on?
A timely reminder that the Dem primary system (especially the nature of caucuses) give an unfair advantage to Sanders (yes, Sanders):
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-winning-the-states-that-look-like-the-democratic-party/
So… new bug?
The very old browser Camino is the only way I can read comments at the moment.
It’s a bug for me on Mac using Chrome or Firefox. No comments are visible.
Testing
Working again, I think?
What happened?
William Bowe
Thank you
Good as new, William.
Don’t know, but the blog header isn’t showing, so I suspect there’s an ongoing disturbance of some kind.
All seems fine again now, thanks.
“I have detected disturbances in the wash.’ ‘The wash?’ ‘The space-time wash.’ ‘Are we talking about some sort of Vogon laundromat, or what are we talking about?’
D Adams
and the comments weren’t showing under each username
In other news, can we expect an ipsos and newspoll today?
William Bowe@1064
A ‘disturbance in the Force’?
Yes, the caucuses are appallingly undemocratic and usually in small states which refuse to publicly fund state-wide primaries.
They require hours of commitment, usually on an evening — they specifically disenfranchise the very people (poor, shift workers, single mothers, working two jobs) the Sanders campaign purports to support.
The dirty secret of the Sanders campaign is that it is largely made up of dissatisfied white privilege from the middle to upper middle classes who are now squealing given they finalised realised that the deck is also stacked against them. Where were they when we needed them against Bush? They weren’t helping the Latinos and African-Americans then. And they were no-where to be seen when Jessie Jackson was running in 1988.
They, particularly African-Americans, have had to struggle against entrenched privileged for generations – Sanders’ little “revolution” is naively quaint for them. Hence why Sanders’ candidacy in places from Virginia to Florida and to Texas has been as novel as a fart in a lift.
Phew! Where were we?
bemused
Edge is my default browser for all links unless I change to Chrome. As it happens my Twitter account is in Edge, and that’s where I found the Sophie tale.
don
Another “very old” Camino. The Chev El Camino. The Septic’s version of our ute.
One for DTT.
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/will-common-ground-u-s-china-strengthen-bond/?utm_source=kw_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2016-04-14
Yes and yes, I’d say.
….. I think it was Bronnie giving all the PB meanies a few lightning bolts to jolt us back to saying nice things about her ….. ( a la Colonels Cathcart/Korn in Catch 22 )
Lt. Col. Korn, XO:
All you have to do is be our pal.
Colonel Cathcart: Say nice things about us.
Lt. Col. Korn, XO: Tell the folks at home what a good job we’re doing. Take our offer Yossarian.
Colonel Cathcart: Either that or a court-martial for desertion.
lizzie@1070
OK, I think we are getting somewhere.
You clicked on a link in a tweet?
And another for DTT.
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/henry-paulson-on-engaging-with-china/?utm_source=kw_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2016-04-14
Wow — it will be polling overload.
I suspect Newspoll will be 51-49 Labor, Ispos 51-49 Coalition — either side of Reachtel.
Something for everyone!
bemused
Yes, but it wasn’t one of those short forms.
_____
Interestingly, I just went back and traced Maiden’s tweet (just for you) and all I could get was the subscription page.
Great posts by EG Theodore, Jackol and Briefly last night. Not sure I will ever understand it (way above my cerebral pay grade) but very impressive stuff. Thanks.
From the Senate enquiry 2015.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/truck-driving–australias-deadliest-job-says-transport-workers-union-20150702-gi3jdk.html
Bemused
Not quite sure why you are posting that Chinese stuff – interesting but what does it have to do with the possible military tensions?
Of course there are benefits from a beter Chinese USA trade relations. But the South China Sea remains a major flash point – as does Taiwan still.
This is why we are all getting confused, I think.
victoria@940
Is it possible to overdose on Schadenfreude?
Darren Laver @ 1069
Brilliant post.
The gross white privilege shown by some Sanders supporters especially the millionaire celebrity types like Susan Sarandon, Tim Robbins and Rosario Dawson has put lie to Sanders faux concern for the little people in the US.
Anti-establishment my arse.
The fact that so many Sanders supporters swallow the republican kool-aid and regurgitate Republican talking points and claim they will vote against Clinton or petulantly abstain in November says it all.
These middle to upper class mainly white ‘millenials’ (surely the most narcissistic, privileged and selfish generation ever) can afford to sulk and pout while a clown like Trump or right wing nut like Cruz wins the White House because their comfortable and entitled existence will not be threatened by a Republican administration.
Blacks, Latinos, Muslims, Women, the poor, the sick, the elderly and the disabled unfortunately do not have the luxury to endure a republican administration because their preferred candidate lost the democratic nomination.
Thankfully the egotistical last hurrah from a Democrat of convenience who has achieved absolutely nothing in 40 years of public office will probably be snuffed out in New York this week.
I am a member of Generation X, which has lately been supplanted by millennials as the most narcissistic, privileged and selfish generation ever, just as it supplanted the baby boomers in turn. I wonder what’s going to happen next.
William Bowe 1085
Am I allowed to say “HAHAHAHAHA!” if I am laughing with you?
I also find it funny how those who most criticise Hillary Clinton for some of her decisions or comments in a 30 odd year career in the public eye are often at the same time lauding Elizabeth Warren as some sort of pure angel who can do no wrong.
I doubt these ignorant dopes even know that Elizabeth Warren was a registered Republican for most her life until the mid nineties.
Even voting for Ronald Reagan.
She was a Republican voter for most her life because in her own words-
“I was a Republican because I thought that those were the people who best supported markets”.
I wonder if she should be continually criticised for her shockingly poor and selfish decision to vote for a right wing republican president and party who paved the way for the massive inequality we see in the US these days.
If we see such massive inequality in the US these days, how did these millennials get to be so privileged?
Changing your political beliefs doesn’t make you evil or a traitor to your new political beliefs. It means you changed your opinion (for better or worse) and that’s all. It shouldn’t be criticised harshly since all that does is discourages people from changing their opinions (or making their opinion changes known).
According to who’s telling the tale, i am either a boomer or Gen X. I don’t relate to either. I prefer to refer to us as being Cold War Kids (born between 56 and 66).
As a member of this forgotten breed I hereby claim that WE are the most selfish generation in history. We built on the groundwork laid out by the Boomers, and have been copied (but never bettered) by every generation since (X, Y, Millenials and whatever comes next).
Our sense of entitlement is unparalleled. It’s about time we received the credit we deserve.
William,
That is true.
Every generation is probably more selfish than the one before.
So my point stands in regard this current generation of ‘millenials’
I say that as a millenial myself? (30 years old)
WARNING There’s a pic of Tony “kissing” Bronnie’s cheek – except that he’s got his mouth open, as usual.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-party-factions-at-war-over-tony-abbotts-alleged-role-in-the-garrotting-of-bronwyn-bishop-20160417-go88zx.html
William @ 1088
My point is that the inequality we see in the US is not endured by the middle to upper class white kids we see supporting Sanders.
You’re the psephologist. Show me one bit of evidence that contradicts my point.
Just heard a brief piece of Cash on 24. She sounds more like one of those ‘union thugs’ that she so abhors. 😛
poroti
I was equally surprised.
He’d obviously listened to his briefing. And knew when to let the RAAF guys have a say rather than him looking like a tool.
(I may have put this up before.)
Approach with caution.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/queensland-nickel-collapse-george-brandis-admits-some-workers-wont-get-full-entitlements/news-story/bf89520564b984309d9a37f62dacb481
I see. All the workers get shafted, the directors walk away, and the highest legal officer in the land shrugs his shoulders and continues the necessary task of allowing bigots to spew their bile freely.
Colton
I actually thought a lot of blue collar unionists were supporting Sanders. Comfortable but certainly NOT priviledged.
Not sure whether your beef is personal or ideological. For those who belong to the ALP or vote ALP, I would have thought Sanders was a bit of a no brainer. He is much closer to say Shorten than in Hilary although he has a bit of Bill Hayden feel to me.
Hilary (and all the middle road conservatices) I would see pretty much as Meg Lees ideologically or ideed mal the magnificent.
You night like to know I have a friend who is a right of centre Liberal – not quite Abbott but leaning that way. He regards himself as an American Democrat.
Too many in Australia equate the Democrats with the ALP. The ALP of Ma’arn maybe or Michael Danby, but NOT the ALP of Wong, Pibersek, Shorten, Swan or Albo. Certainly NOT the ALP of Whitlam, Cairns or almost any of the 1972 crowd.
Hyperbole in overdrive:
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/truckies-roll-into-canberra-in-protest/news-story/271b7bd7ed0656e443793dc8d0e8474e
I haven’t been following the US election closely. But it seems to me that Sanders is really blowing up the whole Bill Clinton / Hillary Clinton “Third Way” and “Triangulation” strategy as a big con that sold out average Americans. So wonder Bill’s getting pissed off these days.