ReachTEL: 50-50

ReachTEL has become the latest poll from which Malcolm Turnbull’s honeymoon lead of late last year has vanished altogether.

The latest ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has the two parties level on two-party preferred, after the Coalition led 52-48 in last month’s poll, and 54-46 in the poll before that. Full results should be up on the ReachTEL site shortly.

UPDATE: And here they are. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down from 46.6% to 43.5%, Labor is up from 34.4% to 35.8%, the Greens are down from 10.5% to 9.8%, and the Nick Xenophon Team supplants Palmer United as the poll’s fifth option, registering 3.8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister is down only slightly, from 60-40 to 58.4-41.6, but his combined very good and good rating is down from 29.6% to 25.5%, with poor plus very poor up from 34.1% to 36.6%. Shorten’s ratings are respectively up from 21.1% to 23.4%, and down from 47.3% to 42.4%. Respondents were asked to rate Scott Morrison’s performance as Treasurer, recording 21.5% very good plus good and 37.2% very poor plus poor, with 37.0% opting for average, and to indicate whether they thought Turnbull was a better (53.0%) or worse (18.3%) prime minister than Tony Abbott. A question on a royal commission into the banking sector found 54.1% supportive and 18.3% opposed. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2415, which is a bit smaller than the ReachTEL norm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,131 comments on “ReachTEL: 50-50”

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  1. lizzie@1049


    Edge replaced IExplorer when I updated to Windows 10.
    I also run Chrome because I can’t run Adblock in Edge.

    You are running Windows 10? Wow! Up with the latest. 😀

    I am still on 8.1 and Chrome is my browser of choice.

  2. Darren Laver @ 1050

    Agree totally.

    Bernie has spent his whole political career as an independent; his success has been aided by the Democratic Party not running against him.

    He’s full of himself.

  3. DLaver

    [Sanders has been spared 25 years of right wing attacks — he has also rarely been attacked by the democrats — they even let him run unopposed for the Senate FFS!]

    Although not technically a Democrat, Saunders did/does caucus with the Democratic party. (Angus King of Maine, another Independent Senator, also caucuses with the Dems.)

    [As a result, It is not unsurprising he enjoys better favourability in general election polls at this point — hell, Ross Perot was going to be president at about this point in 1992!]

    I agree. There’s not much mud left to throw at Hillary. Plus, the Republicans kind of like the spectacle of Bernie taking the fight to her.

    But I find the idea very hard to swallow that a self-styled socialist could win a general election – even if the opponent is Trump.

  4. The very old browser Camino is the only way I can read comments at the moment.

    It’s a bug for me on Mac using Chrome or Firefox. No comments are visible.

  5. “I have detected disturbances in the wash.’ ‘The wash?’ ‘The space-time wash.’ ‘Are we talking about some sort of Vogon laundromat, or what are we talking about?’
    D Adams

  6. [A timely reminder that the Dem primary system (especially the nature of caucuses) give an unfair advantage to Sanders (yes, Sanders): ]

    Yes, the caucuses are appallingly undemocratic and usually in small states which refuse to publicly fund state-wide primaries.

    They require hours of commitment, usually on an evening — they specifically disenfranchise the very people (poor, shift workers, single mothers, working two jobs) the Sanders campaign purports to support.

    The dirty secret of the Sanders campaign is that it is largely made up of dissatisfied white privilege from the middle to upper middle classes who are now squealing given they finalised realised that the deck is also stacked against them. Where were they when we needed them against Bush? They weren’t helping the Latinos and African-Americans then. And they were no-where to be seen when Jessie Jackson was running in 1988.

    They, particularly African-Americans, have had to struggle against entrenched privileged for generations – Sanders’ little “revolution” is naively quaint for them. Hence why Sanders’ candidacy in places from Virginia to Florida and to Texas has been as novel as a fart in a lift.

  7. Phew! Where were we?


    Edge is my default browser for all links unless I change to Chrome. As it happens my Twitter account is in Edge, and that’s where I found the Sophie tale.

  8. don
    The very old browser Camino is the only way I can read comments at the moment.]

    Another “very old” Camino. The Chev El Camino. The Septic’s version of our ute.

  9. [ bemused

    Posted Sunday, April 17, 2016 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    What happened?


    ….. I think it was Bronnie giving all the PB meanies a few lightning bolts to jolt us back to saying nice things about her ….. ( a la Colonels Cathcart/Korn in Catch 22 )

    Lt. Col. Korn, XO: [speaking to Yossarian] All you have to do is be our pal.

    Colonel Cathcart: Say nice things about us.

    Lt. Col. Korn, XO: Tell the folks at home what a good job we’re doing. Take our offer Yossarian.

    Colonel Cathcart: Either that or a court-martial for desertion.

  10. lizzie@1070

    Phew! Where were we?


    Edge is my default browser for all links unless I change to Chrome. As it happens my Twitter account is in Edge, and that’s where I found the Sophie tale.

    OK, I think we are getting somewhere.

    You clicked on a link in a tweet?

  11. [ In other news, can we expect an ipsos and newspoll today?

    Yes and yes, I’d say.]

    Wow — it will be polling overload.

    I suspect Newspoll will be 51-49 Labor, Ispos 51-49 Coalition — either side of Reachtel.

    Something for everyone!

  12. bemused

    [ a link in a tweet?]

    Yes, but it wasn’t one of those short forms.

    Interestingly, I just went back and traced Maiden’s tweet (just for you) and all I could get was the subscription page.

  13. Great posts by EG Theodore, Jackol and Briefly last night. Not sure I will ever understand it (way above my cerebral pay grade) but very impressive stuff. Thanks.

  14. From the Senate enquiry 2015.–australias-deadliest-job-says-transport-workers-union-20150702-gi3jdk.html

    [Truck driver Duane Bowering says he has been routinely forced to take his life – and those of other motorists – into his hands by carrying loads that are too heavy and unsecured.

    With two brothers who have died at the wheel, Mr Bowering spoke about his concerns at a Senate inquiry into road safety on Thursday. He said people’s lives were “dramatically at risk” on the roads because companies were compromising safety standards to save costs.

    Mr Bowering, who is paid $24 an per hour to drive trucks for Blue Star Global in South Australia, said he and other drivers were being forced to take safety risks that could result in death. Other motorists were particularly vulnerable.

    …It was rare that Mr Bowering was allowed a meal break and he often had to work while fatigued.

    Transport Workers Union national secretary Tony Sheldon said one truck driver, Stephen Day, is serving a 10-year jail sentence for killing a cyclist after being required to work “extraordinary hours”.

    “Yet both the employer and the client that was making money out of this terrible tragedy are not in the box, are not being questioned and not being charged,” Mr Sheldon said.

    “It is horrendous to see the truck drivers who do have responsibility on the road, but when you are threatened with being sacked or putting food on your table … then people push the law. Because the boss says you either you do it or we don’t get the contract, or you get terminated.]

  15. Bemused

    Not quite sure why you are posting that Chinese stuff – interesting but what does it have to do with the possible military tensions?

    Of course there are benefits from a beter Chinese USA trade relations. But the South China Sea remains a major flash point – as does Taiwan still.

  16. This is why we are all getting confused, I think.

    [Lorde de Voterati ‏@OzEquitist · 1h1 hour ago

    Yo @abcnews @abcnews24
    Pls fix news ticker which falsely states
    that truck DRIVERS are protesting.
    They’re OWNERS! #RSRT]

  17. Darren Laver @ 1069

    Brilliant post.

    The gross white privilege shown by some Sanders supporters especially the millionaire celebrity types like Susan Sarandon, Tim Robbins and Rosario Dawson has put lie to Sanders faux concern for the little people in the US.

    Anti-establishment my arse.

    The fact that so many Sanders supporters swallow the republican kool-aid and regurgitate Republican talking points and claim they will vote against Clinton or petulantly abstain in November says it all.

    These middle to upper class mainly white ‘millenials’ (surely the most narcissistic, privileged and selfish generation ever) can afford to sulk and pout while a clown like Trump or right wing nut like Cruz wins the White House because their comfortable and entitled existence will not be threatened by a Republican administration.

    Blacks, Latinos, Muslims, Women, the poor, the sick, the elderly and the disabled unfortunately do not have the luxury to endure a republican administration because their preferred candidate lost the democratic nomination.

    Thankfully the egotistical last hurrah from a Democrat of convenience who has achieved absolutely nothing in 40 years of public office will probably be snuffed out in New York this week.

  18. I am a member of Generation X, which has lately been supplanted by millennials as the most narcissistic, privileged and selfish generation ever, just as it supplanted the baby boomers in turn. I wonder what’s going to happen next.

  19. I also find it funny how those who most criticise Hillary Clinton for some of her decisions or comments in a 30 odd year career in the public eye are often at the same time lauding Elizabeth Warren as some sort of pure angel who can do no wrong.

    I doubt these ignorant dopes even know that Elizabeth Warren was a registered Republican for most her life until the mid nineties.
    Even voting for Ronald Reagan.

    She was a Republican voter for most her life because in her own words-
    “I was a Republican because I thought that those were the people who best supported markets”.

    I wonder if she should be continually criticised for her shockingly poor and selfish decision to vote for a right wing republican president and party who paved the way for the massive inequality we see in the US these days.

  20. Changing your political beliefs doesn’t make you evil or a traitor to your new political beliefs. It means you changed your opinion (for better or worse) and that’s all. It shouldn’t be criticised harshly since all that does is discourages people from changing their opinions (or making their opinion changes known).

  21. [I am a member of Generation X, which has lately been supplanted by millennials as the most narcissistic, privileged and selfish generation ever, just as it supplanted the baby boomers in turn. I wonder what’s going to happen next. ]

    According to who’s telling the tale, i am either a boomer or Gen X. I don’t relate to either. I prefer to refer to us as being Cold War Kids (born between 56 and 66).

    As a member of this forgotten breed I hereby claim that WE are the most selfish generation in history. We built on the groundwork laid out by the Boomers, and have been copied (but never bettered) by every generation since (X, Y, Millenials and whatever comes next).

    Our sense of entitlement is unparalleled. It’s about time we received the credit we deserve.

  22. William,

    That is true.

    Every generation is probably more selfish than the one before.
    So my point stands in regard this current generation of ‘millenials’

    I say that as a millenial myself? (30 years old)

  23. WARNING There’s a pic of Tony “kissing” Bronnie’s cheek – except that he’s got his mouth open, as usual.

    [Members of the hard right were playing down talk of an official deal on Sunday. “There was no deal done, this one was free of charge,” said a source.

    But the centre-right is convinced that the hard right planned the hit on Mrs Bishop in collusion with the left and that Mr Abbott had been “hitting the phones hard” to ensure that outcome.

    …Even before Mrs Bishop’s 29-year career in Parliament ended on Saturday night, there were texts going around that the factional alliance would implode if she did not prevail.

    But a separate source said the main damage was to relations within the right.

    A measure of the depth of feeling between Mr Abbott and Mrs Bishop is that he worked towards installing a Liberal whose views on hot button social issues like same sex marriage are completely at odds with the former prime minister.

    One Liberal described Mr Falinkski as the “wettest of the wets” in the party.]

  24. William @ 1088

    My point is that the inequality we see in the US is not endured by the middle to upper class white kids we see supporting Sanders.

    You’re the psephologist. Show me one bit of evidence that contradicts my point.

  25. Just heard a brief piece of Cash on 24. She sounds more like one of those ‘union thugs’ that she so abhors. 😛

  26. poroti

    [During the MH plane search ]

    I was equally surprised.

    He’d obviously listened to his briefing. And knew when to let the RAAF guys have a say rather than him looking like a tool.

    (I may have put this up before.)

  27. [Attorney-General George Brandis has admitted some sacked Queensland Nickel workers may not receive their full entitlements, despite taxpayers shelling out $70 million.

    Under the Fair Entitlements Guarantee Act, payments are capped at 13 weeks’ pay plus annual and sick leave, resulting in many long-serving employees depending upon the work of liquidators for significant sums owed to them by the Clive Palmer-owned company.

    Longer-serving employees are entitled to much more than 13 weeks’ pay, superannuation will not be covered for any workers, and payments will be capped for employees earning more than $130,000.

    “That’s what happens when a company goes broke,” Senator Brandis told Sky News.]

    Approach with caution.

  28. [“That’s what happens when a company goes broke,” Senator Brandis told Sky News. ]

    I see. All the workers get shafted, the directors walk away, and the highest legal officer in the land shrugs his shoulders and continues the necessary task of allowing bigots to spew their bile freely.

  29. Colton

    I actually thought a lot of blue collar unionists were supporting Sanders. Comfortable but certainly NOT priviledged.

    Not sure whether your beef is personal or ideological. For those who belong to the ALP or vote ALP, I would have thought Sanders was a bit of a no brainer. He is much closer to say Shorten than in Hilary although he has a bit of Bill Hayden feel to me.

    Hilary (and all the middle road conservatices) I would see pretty much as Meg Lees ideologically or ideed mal the magnificent.

    You night like to know I have a friend who is a right of centre Liberal – not quite Abbott but leaning that way. He regards himself as an American Democrat.

    Too many in Australia equate the Democrats with the ALP. The ALP of Ma’arn maybe or Michael Danby, but NOT the ALP of Wong, Pibersek, Shorten, Swan or Albo. Certainly NOT the ALP of Whitlam, Cairns or almost any of the 1972 crowd.

  30. Hyperbole in overdrive:

    [PM vows to get truckies back on the road

    Heartbroken owner driver truckies have pleaded with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to abolish a transport watchdog that is crippling their family-run businesses.

    On the eve of parliament’s return, about 200 truckies drove their rigs to Canberra on Sunday to urge MPs to scrap the Gillard government’s Road Safety Remuneration Tribunal that has set new minimum pay rates.

    Some came from as far away as Townsville, Adelaide and Western Australia.

    Gordon Mackinlay, from Holbrook in NSW, told the rally his truck hadn’t made a buck in a week.

    “This is not about politics – I want to feed my family and make a truck (loan) repayment next month,” he said.

    Kelly Boland, who runs a business with her husband, said her family had been owner drivers for three generations and their 19-year-old son wants to be the fourth.

    “His future is being taken away from him,” she said.

    Mr Turnbull vowed to get the owner drivers back on the road.]

  31. I haven’t been following the US election closely. But it seems to me that Sanders is really blowing up the whole Bill Clinton / Hillary Clinton “Third Way” and “Triangulation” strategy as a big con that sold out average Americans. So wonder Bill’s getting pissed off these days.

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