The latest ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has the two parties level on two-party preferred, after the Coalition led 52-48 in last month’s poll, and 54-46 in the poll before that. Full results should be up on the ReachTEL site shortly.
UPDATE: And here they are. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down from 46.6% to 43.5%, Labor is up from 34.4% to 35.8%, the Greens are down from 10.5% to 9.8%, and the Nick Xenophon Team supplants Palmer United as the poll’s fifth option, registering 3.8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister is down only slightly, from 60-40 to 58.4-41.6, but his combined very good and good rating is down from 29.6% to 25.5%, with poor plus very poor up from 34.1% to 36.6%. Shorten’s ratings are respectively up from 21.1% to 23.4%, and down from 47.3% to 42.4%. Respondents were asked to rate Scott Morrison’s performance as Treasurer, recording 21.5% very good plus good and 37.2% very poor plus poor, with 37.0% opting for average, and to indicate whether they thought Turnbull was a better (53.0%) or worse (18.3%) prime minister than Tony Abbott. A question on a royal commission into the banking sector found 54.1% supportive and 18.3% opposed. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2415, which is a bit smaller than the ReachTEL norm.
Lovely.
The panic will soon set in among the Liberals, replacing what until now has been lethargy and complacency.
It”s been a week of Rehabillitation, hasn’t it?
The worm is turning.
Support for Banking Royal Commission 54 in favour (and against was 14 or 18 or something like that – I got distracted by something about Morrison being crap).
The trend continues to run significantly against the Government. It is difficult to imagine, without some form of major external shock, the Government being able to create a narrative that would arrest that trend. They have no clear narrative, are in a complete mess on policy and are divided.
Better PM of 58-42 is in the “typical incumbent advantage” range if you ask me.
Hasn’t ReachTel had a recent history of favouring the Libs?
If so, this could be particularly bad for them.
Not one bit of good news for the Government. Not one.
The LNP can thank their far right colonial sons.
NXT at 3.8%, with LNP primary down 3.1%!
[3
Question
Support for Banking Royal Commission 54 in favour (and against was 14 or 18 or something like that – I got distracted by something about Morrison being crap).]
This policy alone is almost enough for a Labor win. It exhibits everything voters want…strength of purpose, political courage, a sense of fairness, a determination to make the system fairer.
If the banks campaign against it, paradoxically they will drive voters to Labor. Excellent. Of course, the LNP are now bound to oppose Labor on this. They had one chance…just one chance…to defuse this. They got it wrong, inevitably.
Liberals, gornski!
[9
Rewi
NXT at 3.8%, with LNP primary down 3.1%!]
The subsiding LNP PV and the collapse of PUP by themselves are just about enough to bring about a change of Government.
In Crikey today one of the letter writers asserted that wtte the road safety tribunal issue when framed as workers against large companies, might be worth 1% assuming the story gets out.
I think it does reinforce the narrative, not sure if it is worth more than that, currently the issue hasn’t surfaced outside the engaged.
I can certainly live with both the 2pp figure and ppm.
briefly, and then there is the economy
Morrison 37 crap, 37 average, 21 good (I guess only 5 undecided)
Coorey –
[ Malcolm Turnbull forced to fight on Labor’s banking agenda
The problem for the banks is that, over the years, they have collectively made themselves unpopular.
Be it minor annoyances like refusing to pass on in full cuts in official interest rate and charging fees at every opportunity, to the big transgressions of fleecing customers through the various financial advice and other scandals, it has all added up to make them easy targets for populist campaigns
…Malcolm Turnbull’s dressing down of the banks in response to the Westpac allegations was one of the better sprays a politician has given the sector in years.
Political potency
No surprise Labor decided to bring the announcement forward. “Turnbull changed our timing, not our substance,” a senior Labor figure told this column. Not only did Labor have the Prime Minister so eloquently make its case, it also presented another juicy opportunity to ram home to doubting voters the message that the Prime Minister talks a big game.
Labor has been building this case against Turnbull since he rolled Tony Abbott, trying to label him a fraud on climate change, gay marriage and the republic.
…Turnbull, the former banker, will be trying his utmost to highlight Labor’s supposed support for bent trade unions as he pushes the Senate over the two bills to strengthen union regulation. Bill Shorten, the former trade union boss, will be trying his utmost to highlight the Coalition’s support for bent banks, reminding voters that the same Coalition, upon coming into government, tried to water down Labor’s Future of Financial Advice reforms which were opposed by the banks.
…Given many more people have had direct experience with a bank than a construction union, Shorten has the easier task.
…Three years after hoiking $120 million out of ASIC’s budget, the government is now talking about giving the agency more power and resources, with a decision expected as early as Monday.
…Labor will argue that ASIC should continue to operate in parallel with a royal commission, but it is no substitute for a broad appraisal of the culture of financial services and the regulatory system.
…The risk for the government is that once more the conversation, as has been the case since Labor released its superannuation policy this time last year, will be on the opposition’s turf. And if, as is rumoured, there may be more bad news concerning bank behaviour in the pipeline, then the Coalition will be in strife.
Next week’s recall of Parliament was always going to be messy given the timing of the election was effectively outsourced to the Senate. It is now likely to be more so. And messy never benefits the incumbent.]
Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/malcolm-turnbull-forced-to-fight-on-labors-banking-agenda-20160415-go75uq#ixzz45sgaSAZo
PS – Bank profit reporting season commences in May – around the time a DD is announced ?
[8
En Quiry
The LNP can thank their far right colonial sons.]
Yes. In their determination to restrict Turnbot to nothing more than a ceremonial role, they have ensured their own defeat. A powerless PM is unelectable.
Display Name – from last post previous page.
Not sure about the exact percentages (something for scientists to work out) but agree with that sentiment exactly.
[ Col Allan, the big drinking Australian newspaperman who shot to prominence for escorting Kevin Rudd to a New York strip club, is exiting as the top editor of Rupert Murdoch’s favourite tabloid.
The New York Post editor-in-chief will step down at the end of this month, after a 15-year stint leading the brash newspaper, the media organisation announced late Thursday in the US.
News of his imminent retirement came on the same day The Post endorsed Republican frontrunner Donald Trump in the New York primary election to be held next Tuesday.
…The Post’s tabloid rival, The New York Daily News, farewelled Mr Allan with a front page headline: “Ta-ta to Trump’s tabloid toady.”]
http://www.afr.com/business/media-and-marketing/rupert-murdoch-man-and-kevin-rudd-escort-exits-the-new-york-post-20160415-go79at
[15
Question
briefly, and then there is the economy
Morrison 37 crap, 37 average, 21 good (I guess only 5 undecided)]
He is a sad excuse for a Treasurer…shows…
27.7% of respondents and 28% of LNP voters undecided on whether we should have a Royal Commission into banks.
Almost 21% of L-NP voters think Turnbull is worse than Abbott… I agree with the nutbag’s 🙂
Saw Cormans interview on 7.30 last night .really pathetic Talked about some plan he had/ Very unconvincing. Big problems for a hopeless bunch. Couldn,t stop my wife from laughing. Felt Sorry for Corman really looked like a classic Dope
That 28% of undecided LNP voters could be a happy hunting ground for NXT. If NXT were to run an accountability campaign against banks, and LNP hold on to their opposition to a Royal Commission, this could see votes peeled away from the government and up for the taking on 2PP.
Bit of an ‘if’ I suppose…
Karma continues to give the tories a solid bollocking –
[ Liberals could be short of cash in early poll
The Liberal Party could be very short of cash if Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull calls an early election, as a battle over $4.4 million of electoral funding with the NSW Electoral Commission looks set to drag on until at least June.
The Liberals want the commission to unlock the $4.4 million which the commission froze after electoral funding and disclosure breaches in the 2011 state election. But the commission has told AFR Weekend that it will not even consider releasing the money until its next scheduled meeting on June 8.
“When an amended requisite declaration for the 2011 disclosure period is submitted by the Liberal Party of Australia (NSW Division), the normal review and audit procedures conducted by the NSW Electoral Commission’s Funding, Disclosure and Compliance branch will follow
…With a double dissolution election possible as early as July, the delay in accessing funds could hurt the Liberals’ campaign in a key battleground state.
…Cabinet secretary Arthur Sinodinos, who was honorary party treasurer and chair of the finance committee at the time, was said to be “involved in the arrangements” touching the Free Enterprise Foundation.
The Liberal Party caved in three weeks ago and agreed to co-operate with the commission but it is not a done deal.
…The Liberal Party told the electoral commission that the $4.4 million of public funding was of “critical importance” and if it remained frozen it would necessitate “emergency measures” including “retrenchment of staff”.]
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/liberals-could-be-short-of-cash-in-early-poll-20160415-go736n#ixzz45skOfq72
What an exciting time to be a voter! They’ve still got a budget to deliver!
dave @16
Thanks for that Coorey article.
I would think the Fairfax story this afternoon re the liberal fundraiser being sponsored by National Australia bank will not help the governments case at all.
Cheers.
Is anybody feeling sorry for the Libs yet?? 🙂
The next three weeks are going to be bloody in a political context and if the Libs go into panic mode anything could happen.
So, any info on what the poll release schedule is for this coming week?? Newspoll, Essential, Ipsos?? If they all come out during the special sitting it will get interesting.
What were the previous couple of reachtels?
dave@25
The friendly banks will give them bridging finance at ‘mates rates’.
Labor had a golden opportunity to take back Boothby this time after a lapse of 70 years. Dull Doctor What’s-his-name has retired but the Labor candidate is a maths master also devoid of charisma. The Libs have chosen a feisty blonde political scientist – a farmer’s daughter who often slammed animal rights in her columns in The Advertiser. Not really a fair contest. Still, the tortoise did beat the hare.
It seems Labor is running dead in Sturt in the hope that Senator X’s candidate will knock off Prissy Pyne. Labor’s candidate, chosen very late, is a bit of a wild man and not highly regarded.
Labor again seems likely to be represented in Grey by good guy farmer Ben Browne, who had the smallest swing against him of any SA Labor candidate last time. Wonder what role the Whyalla crisis will play? It’s a pity the boundaries are not what they used to be.
[27
Doyley
dave @16
Thanks for that Coorey article.
I would think the Fairfax story this afternoon re the liberal fundraiser being sponsored by National Australia bank will not help the governments case at all.
Cheers.]
The Liberals are co-owned by the banks.
cud chewer
Last Reachtel was 52/48 and one before that was 54/46 in favour of the coaltion
imacca@28
Then we had Laura Tingle giving them a metaphorical size 10 boot up the clacker this morning as well….
Re the Coorey article linked at by dave at @16,
The last paragraph is interesting.
Coorey was one of the CPG toadies praising Turnbull as a genius for recalling parliament just a few short weeks ago.
Just another journo air brushing away previous opinion.
Another for Bushfire Bill to add to his list ( if he hasn’t already done so ).
Cheers.
Doyley
Yes last paragraph is interesting
[As is rumoured, there may be more bad news concerning bank behaviour in the pipeline, then the Coalition will be in strife.
Next week’s recall of Parliament was always going to be messy given the timing of the election was effectively outsourced to the Senate. It is now likely to be more so. And messy never benefits the incumbent.]
Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/malcolm-turnbull-forced-to-fight-on-labors-banking-agenda-20160415-go75uq#ixzz45spHScnZ
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook
Methodology question; does anyone know if mobiles are able to be robopolled?
Hmm. I wonder how much of this hung parliament chatter will have the effect of influencing voters to vote strongly for one major party or the other in order to avoid one?
[What an exciting time to be a voter! ]
As a blogger perhaps, but certainly not as a voter.
It would be more exciting if we were debating varied and challenging ideas from all those wanting to lead the nation.
Seriously, it’s hard to imagine that anybody (even a ratbag) could be pleased with gaining the reins of power to achieve so bloody little. No vision. No policy. No aspiration beyond destroying what the other side built.
All being said and done, you have to wonder why they bothered in the first place.
Totally depressing.
Matt31 @ 37
My work colleague was robopolled on his mobile by REACHtel last night. He does not have a landline
Steven
[ The friendly banks will give them bridging finance at ‘mates rates’. ]
They might even ‘declare’ such as a donation in view of current circumstances.
🙂
[No vision. No policy. No aspiration beyond destroying what the other side built.
All being said and done, you have to wonder why they bothered in the first place.
Totally depressing.]
So from the vast vast political spectrum of the greens on the far left to the LNP on the far right you can’t find a spot to place your vote?
38
confessions
It will help Labor. Voters will choose stability and order. They will also avoid voting for a sham PM..for a largely ceremonial PM. They know that to choose Turnbot is to invite further unpredictability.
[The May budget is shaping as a crucial test of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s innovation credentials, with leading Australian scientists urging his government to move beyond slogans and invest in long-term research.
Under Tony Abbott’s leadership, the Coalition cut $400 million from research institutions in 2014, placing Australia’s research and development investment at its lowest point in 30 years. Many of the cuts remain in the budget’s forward estimates.
…Krystal Evans, the chief executive officer of the BioMelbourne Network, which links medical technology companies with research organisations, said the 2014 cuts had prevented prototypes for drugs and therapies from becoming a commercial reality, right when they were seeking capital from private investors.]
http://www.theage.com.au/business/federal-budget/federal-budget-scientists-push-for-more-research-funding-20160411-go3uaa.html
See, if someone pulls a flashy manoeuvre, you need to work out what (if any) substance there is to it, and where it will land them, before you can decide it’s a good manoeuvre.
In isolation it may be (heuristically) determined to be a reasonable pattern, but it still needs to be examined in context.
Conversely, sometimes a “bad” pattern may work if circumstance suits.
So, policy blind political commentators can be safely ignored.
[ What an exciting time to be a voter!
As a blogger perhaps, but certainly not as a voter. ]
If ordinary voters either don’t know or care where their economic interests lie this time around – they must be brain dead and deserve what they get.
[The May budget is shaping as a crucial test of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s innovation credentials, with leading Australian scientists urging his government to move beyond slogans and invest in long-term research.
Under Tony Abbott’s leadership, the Coalition cut $400 million from research institutions in 2014, placing Australia’s research and development investment at its lowest point in 30 years. Many of the cuts remain in the budget’s forward estimates.
…Krystal Evans, the chief executive officer of the BioMelbourne Network, which links medical technology companies with research organisations, said the 2014 cuts had prevented prototypes for drugs and therapies from becoming a commercial reality, right when they were seeking capital from private investors.]
http://www.theage.com.au/business/federal-budget/federal-budget-scientists-push-for-more-research-funding-20160411-go3uaa.html
Human population growth is a weapon.
Kings, queens, presidents and religious leaders (and religious writers have always known this).
Human history tells us that every-time a region (or culture) is experiencing population growth it bodes ill consequence for the cultures and nations around it.
European colonialism occurred when birth rates there were high and European’s outnumbered Africans and South Americans. It ended when birth rates plateaued and those other nations increased.
Europeans (by descent and culture) once outnumbered Africans 2 to 1, now it is 1 to 1, by the time I am dead in about 60 years the number of children and women of child bearing age will be in a ratio of 1 to +5 (at current trajectories).
Colonisation and mistreatment and marginalisation of minorities is not a european thing but a human thing. Something we can correct in time (I doubt many left-leaning people here would ever be guilty of such but you cannot assume everyone is like yourself when they haven’t shared the same experiences, privileges and education, or have the same historical outlook.
But something not likely to be corrected, IN time, if you know what I mean.
The Chinese mistreat the Uighurs and Tibetans, Euro and new Australians mistreat the aborigines it goes on.
Life was not kind for the white working class in Zimbabwe that were unable to leave when the rich whites did and they found themselves truly a minority, not a minority with power.
There is no reason to expect otherwise going forward. Buddhists, Jews, Atheists, Agnostics, & Euro-whites who identify with euro culture are all on track to become significant minorities over the next 100 years.
Some, like Thai’s in Thailand, have a hope of not being a subjugated minority (as Buddhists) by making sure they have a homogenous, defendable nation state. A nation run by buddhists for buddhists, respectful of minorities but not allowing minorities to become majorities within their borders (notice where that happens, like in the South of Thailand, strife follows).
Others like Jews are already minorities but does their cultural safety change without a majority White-Christian USA or Europe?
So far all of the above would have you pegging me as Nazi, White-Supremest who wants to maintain white hegemony over the globe, who has been inflated by mis-information from right-wing groups.
But this is not the case. The information is from UN & OECD reports and from looking at history through non-racial eyes e.g. everyone pretty much acts the same and has the same capacities what is different is whether in that moment of time they have the power.
I know humanity is better than that though, and that not many people desire the world to be such a way.
That is why it is vital that every culture and nation have its own safe space – every cultural group should have the right to their own land and way of life free from interference of others.
This is especially true for groups already in minorities or growing at below replacement levels.
Until the world can provide adequately for all its citizens (this is what we must work for!) and total respect for minorities becomes a human norm (via education and lack of will because of adequate provision for all) it is foolish for a cultural group (or groups) that have the power to do so not put in provisions to protect themselves and their culture and set up a world of rules and regulations that naturally prohibit the advantages that come from overpopulation or mistreating minorities.
The world is on track to be less full of Europeans, atheists and agnostics, Buddhists and Jews and more full of Muslim’s, African’s and Indonesian’s, Indian’s & Filipino’s. (Numbers of Hispanics & Christian’s will maintain approximately equal numbers in percentage terms as now.
The fact that the world is becoming more religious should be taken as a serious threat by all non-religious people in the world.
With the decrease of one comes inhibition on the rights of women & gays. With the other enforcement of their ‘norms’ on others.
It is great that the world have nations that have fairly open immigration policies and people of all nationalities and cultures and regions exist and that especially in these places room is granted for new cultures and styles to emerge.
Just don’t kid yourself that an empowered China, or significant growth of minorities within countries (you think this can’t happen here but Australia has long maintained higher rates of immigration than the US and the US is rapidly hurtling towards being minority white and I don’t think you would dispute that so….) is a recipe for a better world.
It is a recipe for a world where the names and culture of the oppressor and oppressed have changed but not the reality of oppression itself.
Refusing to reward countries and cultures that have unbalancing population growth AND AT THE SAME TIME building institutions that operate fairly on rules and regulations that are unbiased to cultural strength and number is integral to building a just world where future minorities (Whites, Agnostics, Jews, Buddhists) etc are safe as well as existing minorities.
Doing everything we can to ensure economic growth in foreign cultures is integral to this as well as maintaining a strong defensive position.
Allowing a hegemonic position to fall to any cultural group owing to its rapid population expansion is foolish in the extreme.
Most of us would rather not see sorting out such issues come to violence. That’s why population growth should be called out for what it is (bad) and countries and cultures incentivised to desist in it.
Safety for all, respect for all, equality for all, and eventually a post-racial world (in a couple of centuries) not foolish, we decided we wouldn’t do that (anymore) so others will to without every trying it on first (we hope).
Victim’s often grow up to be abusers (ask any psychologist). The West created many victims.
If I were the West I would be loathe to give up the strength to defend myself until such times as I was able to help put things right, give it a lot of time for attitudes to change and memories fade, have a world that was not inflaming chip on the shoulder attitudes “and take, take, take” life viewpoints and then relax the military, demographic and power aspect.
Hey we are all safe now, thank you for forgiving the sins on my ancestors and not continuing their perpetuance. Response: thank you for not continuing your ancestors sins when you could have done so and for helping (or at least getting out of the way) of my people building their own prosperity – we have no quarrel. We are all human and equal.
Yes Tom, I think I can manage that bit. 😛
Turnbull must be the first Australian PM to have a purely ceremonial role.