ReachTEL: 50-50

ReachTEL has become the latest poll from which Malcolm Turnbull’s honeymoon lead of late last year has vanished altogether.

The latest ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has the two parties level on two-party preferred, after the Coalition led 52-48 in last month’s poll, and 54-46 in the poll before that. Full results should be up on the ReachTEL site shortly.

UPDATE: And here they are. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down from 46.6% to 43.5%, Labor is up from 34.4% to 35.8%, the Greens are down from 10.5% to 9.8%, and the Nick Xenophon Team supplants Palmer United as the poll’s fifth option, registering 3.8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister is down only slightly, from 60-40 to 58.4-41.6, but his combined very good and good rating is down from 29.6% to 25.5%, with poor plus very poor up from 34.1% to 36.6%. Shorten’s ratings are respectively up from 21.1% to 23.4%, and down from 47.3% to 42.4%. Respondents were asked to rate Scott Morrison’s performance as Treasurer, recording 21.5% very good plus good and 37.2% very poor plus poor, with 37.0% opting for average, and to indicate whether they thought Turnbull was a better (53.0%) or worse (18.3%) prime minister than Tony Abbott. A question on a royal commission into the banking sector found 54.1% supportive and 18.3% opposed. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2415, which is a bit smaller than the ReachTEL norm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,131 comments on “ReachTEL: 50-50”

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  1. [My comment is and thanks for listening, don’t want to bore people here, but it’s only Reachtel and like Ipsos is dicey because it’s done by vested interests.]

    I’d be curious to know what vested interests you think are served by the world’s fourth largest market research firm.

  2. 76
    confessions

    It’s a Labor strength this time, for sure. It will consolidate support behind Labor.

    Labor candidates will be implicitly conveying this message to voters…”Stability is important. You can have it. By voting for me, you will be voting to get those properties of Government that are most important to you. You will get stability, order, strength of purpose, unity of action.”

    To embellish this, Labor will be offering a suite of policies that are both reassuring – policies on health, education, the climate, taxes, the economy – and strong.

    Labor have been on song for many many months. The next 2 1/2 months will amplify and deepen the messages. Labor are on course to a memorable and magnificent win.

  3. I’d be curious to know what vested interests you think are served by the world’s fourth largest market research firm.
    ——————————–

    In all due respect, Mr Bowe, I need to know who is the world’s fourth largest market research firm.

  4. Rewi @ 89,

    What’s next, eugenics as serious science?

    I think you need to speak to Dr Jennifer Oriel about that.
    You’ll find her writing columns over at The Australian about how Public School students are lower on the evolutionary scale than Private School students. 🙂

  5. [91
    prettyone

    Briefly

    My take is that the electorate know Labor spend too much.]

    This is a myth. It’s a political myth promulgated by the fiction writers on the right.

  6. And I bet Turnbull thought his grand procession through the Middle Kingdom this week with his entourage of 1000 innovative and agile businesspersons would boost his polls in time for the start of parliament next week. 😀

  7. [On the topic, William…how does Bludgertrack rate Reachtel?]

    At present, both major parties get about a point shaved off their primary vote, which goes to “others”.

  8. 110
    C@tmomma

    They are seriously complacent, C@t. I know a couple of Libs. They are sure they will win comfortably, that defeat is impossible. They are simply extrapolating the past and supposing a win is inevitable. They do not understand change.

  9. The answer is Ipsos, Prettyone, although I don’t anticipate that will help you answer the question.
    ——————————

    I think Ipsos only started 6 or so months ago? It’s best to go with long term companies like Newspoll, I think.
    As well Essential.

    My understanding Ipsos is run by Fairfax. They have problems with accuracy and truth in journalism judging by the law suits. Take it with a grain of salt, is my idea.

  10. [113
    William Bowe

    On the topic, William…how does Bludgertrack rate Reachtel?

    At present, both major parties get about a point shaved off their primary vote, which goes to “others”.]

    Thanks William. How does this wash out In the 2PP? Slightly to the better for the LNP?

  11. Boerwar,

    Thanks for the bluey summary.

    Re the political plus for the government and Cash from the QN decision.

    I would wait and see how it unfolds before any prediction on political benefit.

    It will take a period of time for the payments to be calculated for each worker and then even more time before the money is received.

    Also it may well be the case that expectation does not meet the reality regarding how much each worker receives.

    I know I am biased but I cannot help but feel there is a huge chance the government will cock this up badly.

    Anyway, time will tell.

    Cheers.

  12. John Laws is still going. He’s 80 years old and has a spot on Sydney’s now obscure 2SM. In fact, Bob Rodgers is still going, at 89, with a spot on Sydney’s ‘easy listening’ 2CH. Gary O’Callaghan turned 90 last year, but doesn’t do radio any more.

  13. Briefly, the 2% that’s docked from the major parties, which formerly split 50-50, would instead split about 53-47 in favour of the Coalition. So we’re talking inside 0.1% here.

  14. briefly,
    WA Libs are so isolated and fed on crap by the likes of Bishop, Cormann and Cash that they honestly believe that success is just a brilliant manouver away.

  15. Steve, and if 2UW was still going…….. lol. Hold on, they transferred their license to 2DAYFM, and they gave us…

  16. Doyley

    I imagine that Cash will be extraordinarily generous with taxpayers’ cash in this instance.

    First she gets an opportunity to help kill truck drivers for the good of the nation and the maintenance of national truckie culture.

    And now she gets to shovel cash to workers.

    How lucky is that?

    There was a bit of chat on PB about why Cash?

    I reckon the reason is that she could not sound less like Malcolm Turnbull if she tried.

    Her electoral role is everywoman, antidote to the pukka banker.

    Her ideology is Raving Right with helps offset the Party trogs.

    She is a wonderful gift for Turnbull and her prominence is a sign that not everyone is brain dead over in the FIGJAM bunker.

  17. [124
    C@tmomma

    briefly,
    WA Libs are so isolated and fed on crap by the likes of Bishop, Cormann and Cash that they honestly believe that success is just a brilliant manouver away.]

    There is a belief that inertia will hold for them….that large shifts away from them and in favour of Labor are intrinsically implausible. This is often true. But it does not allow for those phases when opinion slides…slides like cargo on a wet deck…just slides unstoppably.

  18. Steve777:

    Back in the day when I still had Foxtel I remember Sky News devoting weeks and weeks to John Laws’ retirement, even live broadcasting his final radio appearance.

    This wasn’t that long ago, IIRC. I’m therefore surprised to learn he’s still at it. He had the send off to end all send offs, so what gives I wonder?

  19. Fess

    [ I’m therefore surprised to learn he’s still at it ]

    He couldn’t hack ‘retirement’ so went back to work.

    He wouldn’t have needed the money I wouldn’t imagine.

    But I don’t think the comeback worked ?

    What did happen is his pre retirement salary was huge – so when he retired, first time, stations used that as a trigger to drop salaries across the board as contracts expired.

  20. The many perks of being POTUS. (Note the spoilers in the link!!)

    [HBO and “Game of Thrones” showrunners David Benioff and D.B. Weiss have made it abundantly clear that they won’t be releasing screeners of the new season, The Washington Post reported, which is a decision TV Guide called “unprecedented.”

    One man, though, knows how to play the game of thrones.

    During HBO’s Sunday red carpet for the premiere of Season 6’s first episode, the showrunners confirmed that the president will receive advance episodes of the show.

    “When the commander in chief says, ‘I want to see advanced episodes,’ what are you gonna do?” Benioff said.

    This might not seem like particularly striking news, unless you consider the work that HBO has put in during the past year to maintain what the Wrap called the year’s biggest cliffhanger. It matters so deeply to some that one impassioned fan has created an online petition on the White House’s official website demanding that President Barack Obama release information from the screeners.

    (Note: This piece contains spoilers from this point onward.)]

    http://www.theoptimist.com.au/story/3852401/barack-obama-will-be-one-of-the-first-in-the-world-to-see-the-new-season-of-game-of-thrones/?cs=4845

  21. Prittydum, to quote William Bowe, in Crikey, May 05, 2015 :
    “The Australian announced yesterday that the Newspoll organisation, which has provided it with its polling since 1985, will be wound up, with the loss of 26 jobs.

    Polling will continue to appear in the paper under the Newspoll banner, but what was once a company will now be merely a brand.

    As of July, the actual work will be conducted by Galaxy Research, which was established in 2004 by Newspoll alumnus David Briggs and has long conducted polling for the News Corporation tabloids.”

    So, Newspoll isn’t Newspoll, its Galaxy! Do you get it!

  22. [On the primary vote, the Coalition is down from 46.6% to 43.5%, Labor is up from 34.4% to 35.8%]

    On the face of it, 6 LNP and 5 Labor Senators …and a Green in each State. Of course, this would be modified by Xenophon, Lambie, maybe Lazarus and the impact of exhausting votes. It does’t look like a Lib Senate. There will likely be Labor gains, Green losses.

  23. Hartcher drawing a long bow – does he really believe for a moment that a visit to China will effect votes ?

    Ahem – China was visited at the end of a long list of other countries- while Japan was almost first cab off the rank. The US, Indonesia, PNG, NZ etc etc – months ago.

    [ Malcolm Turnbull’s election pitch stamped ‘Made in China’

    Malcolm Turnbull has pulled out the biggest campaign prop ever used by an Australian prime minister.

    With 1.4 billion people and an $US11 trillion-a-year economy, it’s many times bigger than Australia itself. It is, of course, the People’s Republic of China. His visit to China this week is the only overseas trip he’s making during the quasi campaign phase in between his demarche to the Senate and formally calling the election.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-election-pitch-stamped-made-in-china-20160415-go7jt3.html

  24. The question for the G’s will be whether they put out HTV’s that favour Labor ahead of the LNP.

    Will they help elect new Labor Senators?

  25. Maybe as the campaign rolls forward and Labor’s PV climbs, Labor will not need G prefs to reach 5 Senators in each State. The question will be whether or not the G’s will help elect 6th Labor Senators in some States….or will they try to act to preserve their B-o-P and support the LNP?

  26. [ .@chriskkenny says Bronwyn bishop might win tomorrow but has some tips for to make sure it doesn’t happen. ]

    I hope she does ‘win’ – because it will show where the tories believe their future, their ideas, their standards, their ‘intellect’, their ‘compassion’ etc all are.

    It will also show them for what they all are.

  27. William, if you’re reading.

    The boxes and curves, top and bottom right on your PPM graph are misaligned.

    Someone else pointed it out before, but I missed if you replied.

  28. [142
    dave]

    Yet another example of Turnbot performing ceremonial duties instead of working hard on the peoples’ business.

  29. gee wiz how do I get a neat butterfly icon preferably better than johny-come-lately prettyone? Oh well mines at least better than confessions mulberry square….

  30. [ Yet another example of Turnbot performing ceremonial duties instead of working hard on the peoples’ business. ]

    As Keating use to say – a bunch of no bodies, going nowhere and doing next to nothing.

    And about the only ‘thought’ in their heads being *they were born to rule*

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