Our only new federal poll for the week is the regular Essential Research rolling fortnightly average, which is once again at 50-50 on two-party preferred, despite Labor taking a two-point hit on the primary vote to 35%. The Coalition is steady on 42%, while the Greens are up a point to 11%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull down six on approval to 39% and up four on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten up three to 30% and down three to 44%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 48-19 to 44-22. Also:
• Thirty-nine per cent said they would support a double dissolution if the Senate failed to pass the Australian Building and Construction Commission bill, up five since last month, with 24% opposed, up two. Thirty-five per cent expressed support for the bill itself, following a question that emphasised the extent of the ABCC’s proposed powers, with 16% opposed and 23% opting for neither. The issue was rated important by 34%, and not important by 41%.
• The tax system was rated fair by 36% and not fair by 55%. Of particular interest was a breakdown by income, suggesting a strong negative correlation between income and belief in the system’s unfairness. Typically, a question outlining various potential tax reforms found strong support for anything targeting the wealthy, and weak support for increasing or broadening the GST. Opinion was evenly divided on removing negative gearing and replacing stamp duty with land tax.
The poll was conducted online Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1010, with the voting intention result also including the results from the previous week’s survey.
[699
C@tmomma]
There’s very little faux about the Labor campaign, C@t 🙂
Talking about Abbott, Pollie Pedal is over, Parliament is on Monday so he is back in Canberra. About time for some more Abbott input isn’t it. 🙂
Tom.
Player
Are you thinking what I am thinking re that photo?
My thoughts were NOT PC.
dtt
[ Are you thinking what I am thinking re that photo? ]
I am trying very hard not to.
[ Only a particular kind of man could possibly have this reaction to a picture of Tony Abbott. ]
It is a bit creepy pathetic.
696
geoffrey
Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2016 at 10:14 pm | PERMALINK
briefly
Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2016 at 10:02 pm | PERMALINK
[681
geoffrey
Are you a Green-bot?
don’t be absurd]
lol
in fewer words, yes.
Player
Do portable canvas structures in rows spring to mind?
Just caught up with Pickering’s show. Love “Malcolm’s Musing’s”. He did a good interview with Bolt, who was in turn surprised that Pickering didn’t just have an avalanche of material to make him look a fool.
The most interesting thing for me was that Bolt said what made him a conservative was that he believed in “Evolution rather than Revolution”.
This was strange for me, because as a “lefty” I completely agree. I think it would have been perfectly fine to put in place a piss weak ETS in 2009 and then gradually “amp it up”.
It would have been better than nothing, and it would have been going for 7 years now. People would understand how it works, and then the argument can then be about how heavy handed you want it to be.
As it is people are still confused between an ETS and a Carbon Tax.
Saying that you have to get it right from the start is as stupid as saying you have to get progressive tax scales right from the start.
dtt
[ Do portable canvas structures in rows spring to mind? ]
Indeed.
briefly
Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2016 at 10:02 pm | PERMALINK
681
geoffrey
Are you a Green-bot?
don’t be absurd
lol
in fewer words, yes.
————–unless i get your cypticism wrong you seem a many of few words and even fewer ideas
*a man of few words and few ideas
could apply to a few others here
until there is serious analysis admission and plicy to deal with systemic failings of ed and health caused by underregulation and privatisation i am not convinced
I hope this picture reproduces. It’s sentiment is very apt.
(If it doesn’t then someone may be able to help me get it on the page)
711
geoffrey
In the meantime, while you wait for someone or other to take the trouble to convince you of lawd knows wot, Labor will win a few elections and proceed with its general mission. Now there is an idea for you. Muse upon it.
I don’t think Tony Abbott is anywhere near that row of pup tents. He resides in the court of Narcissus. Still has to wear glasses though like all us other mere mortals. 🙂
[Steelydan 687
Abbot has actually been quite good of late but the fascination with him will continue, I think the left may be relying on Abbott a bit to much I don’t think he will help them as much as he did in the past. Probable been spoken to or begged to keep his mouth shut.]
Yes Abbott has been good of late, and the begging isn’t working. Saw him a few times in the news in the past week, as Bolt would say “we need a conservative voice”.
Question
Bolt saying he believes in Evolution not Revolution is simply a rationalisation of his lies, which he knows will exposed in the long term.
It’s like his claim to be a sceptic rather than a denier wrt climate science. He is not a sceptic, simply an ideologue and a lier.
C@tmomma
[ I hope this picture reproduces. ]
Yes, it’s fine. What is it about Bishop the Younger that makes her a point of stability and maturity in the LNP omnishambles?
Sure beats the heck out of me!
Night all!
One day closer to parliament next week. 😉
712
C@tmomma
They really do look like the taxidermist has been around. Truss needs re-upholstering.
Briefly
Over here in the real world I contemplate a near future where a decent swing to Labor will still not yield government.
Player One,
Julie Bishop has an amazing ability to defy gravity. She can be caught with her hand in the cookie jar, call a press conference and deny it, and get away with it!
Go figure!?!
briefly,
I thought Joe Hockey had on his best ‘You can trust me with the accounts’ face. 😉
[716
Trog Sorrenson
Question
Bolt saying he believes in Evolution not Revolution is simply a rationalisation of his lies]
Bolt wants a counter-reformation. He pines for a lost orthodoxy. The neo-cons are all romantics, essentially. They have succumbed to nostalgia. Reason is a dispensable inconvenience.
[722
C@tmomma
briefly,
I thought Joe Hockey had on his best ‘You can trust me with the accounts’ face. ;)]
A look on his face and a peppermint in his bottom….
[720
daretotread]
I am sowing optimism, dtt. There’s no point at all in pessimism. Pessimism invites dismay both before and after a defeat. At least I have something to look forward to and a reason to fight! At least if I lose I will be able to say I believed in winning and gave my energy to it. I’m sick to death of the world-weariness of the losers. I want to win.
The way I took it is that Bolt believes Evolution is a conservative tenet, and Revolution is a Lefty tenet, because he believes lefties are all radicals.
I am quite happy for politics to “evolve” toward the left. I am in no rush, as I suggested with the ETS example.
The important thing for me back in 2009 was to get the “mechanism” in place. In the same way I am glad we have a progressive income tax “mechanism”.
Having come to understand it, people approve of progressive tax, which is why the L-NP then try to flatten it with the GST and create Capital Gains and Super loopholes.
briefly 725,
Absolutely, I tire of people who support Labor “getting realistic”. We can all go to “Mark the ballot” (see margin), and see the odd’s, and the fact of the matter is that the ALP already have fantastic odd’s against a first term government.
Then we can gain more comfort knowing that this is not a typical first term government. Not only do they have the baggage Gillard had to deal with, but all sorts of complicated and yet explained differences in what policy will be. Indeed they don’t really have any policy.
Then we also have PM Turnbulls Net-sat’s, which we are informed by the Pseph’s are leading indicators of the TPP performance of governing parties… and they are still in free fall.
Confessions
[ Oh god, please tell me this is an old Abbott photo! 😮
https://www.facebook.com/BuzzFeedOzPol/photos/a.142048349464230.1073741828.139652223037176/260836370918760/?type=3&theater ]
PrettyOne@669
[Confessions
Not an old photo but from yesterday.
Wow. What biceps and chest. A great physique. Just wow. Verile sexy man.]
I deleted what I originally wrote here, because William does not need to be sued, but PrettyOne, what were you thinking when you wrote that comment?
You have been fairly up-front about being male in past comments, and no woman on the planet would make the comment you wrote.
727
Question
Too right, Q.
And the anecdotal story is that voters have yet to make up their minds. Their opinions and intentions are evolving. This is going to be very far from an ordinary election.
briefly
Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2016 at 10:36 pm | PERMALINK
711
geoffrey
In the meantime, while you wait for someone or other to take the trouble to convince you of lawd knows wot, Labor will win a few elections and proceed with its general mission. Now there is an idea for you. Muse upon it.
——————-ah the old nsw right labor pragmatism – the arrogance is still there despite time in the wilderness …. i dont need to convince anyone of a thing, the issues of social justice in ed and health should be in dna of labor – yes they may win (as i said) but for what general mission? and how much change?
it is interesting how intolerant many here can be – ostrocise the person rather than discuss – when rudd was being supported one was a liberal – when shorten criticised ditto _ can sound like actu bulletin sometime – now, when policy addressed one is consigned to dustbin of greens
re turnbull – he made the mistake of rudd second tme around (you’d think turnbull would have observed and learnt ) – both guys would have won a quick election on back of resurgent popularity, and both seemed to want to bask in office for a while having expended so much effort getting there
Re the Panama Papares… and
THIS IS CLASS WARFARE… the UK has 3,250 staff investigating benefits and pension fraud and only 300 investigating tax evasion.
Geoffrey,
You are not “discussing”. You are presenting opinion as fact.
At the same time, what I can manage to decipher, you are lecturing the major parties on policy and integrity and then devolving into cynical CPG type sermons on how they should time their campaigns.
Well, at least he’s enjoying himself, I suppose…
As an ALP supporter I delight in any conservative, including PrettyOne, getting their rocks off on Abbott’s Abs.
[This is going to be very far from an ordinary election.]
Labor won an election in 2007 at the height of an economic boom. That defied all conventional wisdom about the conditions in which government changes in Australia. There have been no ordinary elections since. Too much credit is given to ‘conventional wisdom’ in forecasting electoral movements.
My prediction of a solid (and getting bigger) Labor win has been based on my observations of what matters to the people whose votes change government. They are a lot less interested in policy, especially as it is often too complex to get their heads around, than in feeling that the government is committed to governing in the public interest and in governing competently and coherently. In this context the issue of raising the GST has less impact than ongoing brain farts and flip flops with back flips.
We have, objectively, a terrible, confused, internally warring, incoherent, bumbling government. They are up against an opposition that seems to be listening and connecting with voters, united and stable, with a pretty good ability to explain itself to the public in a way that treats the public as adults. It’s not that policy does not matter to voters; it matters very much. But the best policy ideas in the world are pointless if the party that has them does not have the skill, commitment and plain common sense to deliver them.
[re turnbull – he made the mistake of rudd second tme around (you’d think turnbull would have observed and learnt ) – both guys would have won a quick election on back of resurgent popularity, and both seemed to want to bask in office for a while having expended so much effort getting there]
Rudd went pretty quickly after getting the job back. The election was less than three months later.
Question
Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2016 at 11:41 pm | PERMALINK
Geoffrey,
You are not “discussing”. You are presenting opinion as fact.
At the same time, what I can manage to decipher, you are lecturing the major parties on policy and integrity and then devolving into cynical CPG type sermons on how they should time their campaigns.
—————– shock and horror – somewhere here presenting opinion as fact and lecturing major parties!!!!!! let alone being cynical!! look, these issues i raise are not opinions and not new – they should be bread and butter for the alp from its traditions – it was henry parkes who passed first education act 1870 … etc etc … i think your impatient and somewhat rude dismissal of these important topics shows alp not fully ready to govern
tpof
true it seemed longer – maybe he managed to get people aside – enough to loose – with some hasty decisions – not sure how quick an election can be
turnbull must be regretting he was not more ruthless about a quick election last year – perhaps the thought earlier tonight that he loves role of PM above all and didn’t want to risk or politicise too much has merit
Sorry Geoffrey,
I have had a few beers, but obviously not enough.
If it helps, I also believe that everything I say is a fact.
Since you have had since 1870 to organise your thoughts I would expect them to be more convincing and more persuasive. Frankly I have no idea of what you want.
geoffrey @ 738
Rudd actually went when it was due. The 2010 election, which was a little early, was in August and the 2013 election was just over 3 years later on 7 September.
If Turnbull had gone to an early election, it would have been a full year before it was due. It is impossible to know what might have happened. Certainly, he would have had his work cut out convincing voters that an early election was justified just because his party had dumped an unsuitable PM.
Geoffrey,
Turnbull saw what happened to Gillard in 2010.
Also Gillard went to the polls a tad earlier than they were due, but not so early it created any constitutional problems. Turnbull had no such luxury.
hullo question comrade
well at least i know something of what i want so that is a start
you might be right i did not discuss enough – but this never seems quite the right forum for that, even though the alternative can seem rare – i too quickly sketched a direction that i assume is familiar or might ring bells … like, yes she should be doing that but it is electorally hard let’s think of a consensual strategy that might work … the main imperative, stop/reverse the privatisation of health and education, and make them more affordable and equitable and accessible for all australians
Geoffrey you funny bastard,
And now we agree 🙂
[730
geoffrey
ah the old nsw right labor pragmatism]
I’m not from NSW. I’m not factional. I believe we should strive to win. Call it what you like.
735
TPOF
Very well said.
TPOF,
Your description of swinging voters @735 seems at odds with earlier comments to the effect that they are reasonable and well informed and that policy does matter. If they are uninterested in policy detail as you say now and only respond to perception and buzz, then they really are prisoner to whatever narrative the MSM wishes to push.
Fact is, people have to understand actual little details (like the Liberals still want to cut pensions) to figure out for themselves just how bad the Liberals are. If they are simply responding to buzz and the media tell us how wonderful the Libs are, despite the facts, they may just vote for them.
[Your description of swinging voters @735 seems at odds with earlier comments to the effect that they are reasonable and well informed and that policy does matter.]
I don’t think I’ve ever said that. It’s not a question of whether they are reasonable or not; rather it is a question of how important policy is in their decision on who to vote for. And, indeed, the level of attention they give to policy and politics in the hurley burley of their daily lives. I think very few are political tragics like us denizens of PB.
What I am arguing is not that their understanding of politics is superficial and easily tricked by MSM groupthink reporting. Rather, they typically place much greater emphasis on the quality and character of government and leadership than those of us who look also deeply at policies.
Just a thought.
What I recon, is the US want Japan to re-militarise (China), and recon that getting Japan to build our sub’s is a good start.
I think think this overrides any Australian political affiliation. It’s just a matter of which party will fight to keep as much as they can here.
TPOF @747,
My point though is this. If they aren’t political tragics and rely upon the MSM, how on earth do they form a view of the “character and leadership” question itself? You and I might judge Turnbull harshly in terms of “character and leadership”, but does the swinger voter do so, given the swinging voter is constantly subjected to MSM groupthink and the handed down “buzz” from the breakfast show hosts?
Indeed I’d go further. To the extent the swinging voter really does depend on a pack of idiots for their impressions, does this not make them also volatile and prone to forgetting. In other words the “short memory syndrome” is very much about having not being informed and having no rational basis and instead feeding off the “buzz” and at election time, also the political advertising drowning out talk about “character and leadership” with dire warnings about Labor’s great big new taxes and of course the MSM constantly ending every story with “but, Labor is just as bad”, or if the MSM is talking about Liberal internal problems then the gratuitous “but its not as bad as Gillard/Rudd was”. And so on.
I’m sorry but I’m so weary with the criminal acts of intellectual dishonesty perpetrated by the media that I find it hard to believe that swinging voters who as you say, aren’t well informed, aren’t also easily swayed by MSM groupthink and scary ads.
And look, I’m not disagreeing that a lot of voters are pretty shallow and care about personality, and likeability and “trustable” and “gets on with the job” and all those qualities. But Turnbull just hasn’t been around long enough for swinging voters to have a confirmed view of him. When the truth comes out about his absolutely incompetent handling of the NBN, then maybe it’ll sink in and nothing the MSM can do about it. But my guess is that a lot of voters still have in the back of their heads that Labor was wasteful/ineffective/incompetent last time and would only vote Labor if it was to avoid a worse fate (Abbott). And a lot of swinging voters can’t bring themselves to admit that they got it wrong when they cast a ballot last time. And a lot of those swinging voters therefore are still desperately looking for Turnbull to reveal his Superman cape. After all, the Liberals ARE better economic managers, right? So all he has to do is to make the right noises in the budget, the MSM to cheer him on and why would the swinging voter know any different. Especially if their favourite TV personality says “yeah, Turnbull had a rough patch, but his budget is cool” (again, the MSM really does have a big influence over mere “commentators”.).
There really is no fairness to this game, TPOF. You know, I know, anyone who has any time to gather the evidence knows, that the Liberals are a rabble and the reason is that their ideology prevents them from doing anything remotely decent. We also know they are arrogant, incompetent, mean, and a host of other adjectives.
But has this impression hardened among a bunch of swinging voters? Will it matter when the bullshit starts to rain down on their unthinking heads?
I have my doubts.
What will change things is if the groundswell against the budget builds like it did in 2014. And again, I will bet good money that no matter what it says, the MSM will report it as “fair and balanced” or even “innovative” or whatever other bullshit News Limited has come up with. The “commentators” will pick that up. It takes a lot of momentum to cut through this. The fact that the 2014 was just so fucking mean in so many little, petty ways meant it couldn’t be ignored, even by people who only picked up one or two details (for me, it was the petty and mean indexing changes to my pension).
Anyhow I’m rambling. I’m just not convinced the average swinging voter is yet hardened in his/her opinion and so many are still desperate to believe the Libs are better and that Turnbull will be ok.