Essential Research: 50-50

Our only new federal poll for the week is the regular Essential Research rolling fortnightly average, which is once again at 50-50 on two-party preferred, despite Labor taking a two-point hit on the primary vote to 35%. The Coalition is steady on 42%, while the Greens are up a point to 11%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull down six on approval to 39% and up four on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten up three to 30% and down three to 44%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 48-19 to 44-22. Also:

• Thirty-nine per cent said they would support a double dissolution if the Senate failed to pass the Australian Building and Construction Commission bill, up five since last month, with 24% opposed, up two. Thirty-five per cent expressed support for the bill itself, following a question that emphasised the extent of the ABCC’s proposed powers, with 16% opposed and 23% opting for neither. The issue was rated important by 34%, and not important by 41%.

• The tax system was rated fair by 36% and not fair by 55%. Of particular interest was a breakdown by income, suggesting a strong negative correlation between income and belief in the system’s unfairness. Typically, a question outlining various potential tax reforms found strong support for anything targeting the wealthy, and weak support for increasing or broadening the GST. Opinion was evenly divided on removing negative gearing and replacing stamp duty with land tax.

The poll was conducted online Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1010, with the voting intention result also including the results from the previous week’s survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe