Essential Research: 50-50

The two parties are once again locked together in the latest reading of the Essential Research rolling average, which find further evidence for a rapid deterioration in Malcolm Turnbull’s public standing, and a steady recovery in Bill Shorten’s.

Our only new federal poll for the week is the regular Essential Research rolling fortnightly average, which is once again at 50-50 on two-party preferred, despite Labor taking a two-point hit on the primary vote to 35%. The Coalition is steady on 42%, while the Greens are up a point to 11%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull down six on approval to 39% and up four on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten up three to 30% and down three to 44%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 48-19 to 44-22. Also:

• Thirty-nine per cent said they would support a double dissolution if the Senate failed to pass the Australian Building and Construction Commission bill, up five since last month, with 24% opposed, up two. Thirty-five per cent expressed support for the bill itself, following a question that emphasised the extent of the ABCC’s proposed powers, with 16% opposed and 23% opting for neither. The issue was rated important by 34%, and not important by 41%.

• The tax system was rated fair by 36% and not fair by 55%. Of particular interest was a breakdown by income, suggesting a strong negative correlation between income and belief in the system’s unfairness. Typically, a question outlining various potential tax reforms found strong support for anything targeting the wealthy, and weak support for increasing or broadening the GST. Opinion was evenly divided on removing negative gearing and replacing stamp duty with land tax.

The poll was conducted online Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1010, with the voting intention result also including the results from the previous week’s survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

757 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. [I suspect that Malcolm is a lazy bastard who doesn’t want to do the hard yards (like Shorten does). He’s ticked PM off his bucket list and now he’d like to enjoy his wealth without having to deal with the dickheads in his party.]

    This argument has legs.

  2. This piece by Miranda Devine is mind boggling. Last paragraph

    [Abbott was no conservative prime minister. I don’t know whether that was because he wasn’t a genuine conservative or because it was too hard to combat anti-conservative forces once he took office. Either way, appeasing the left cost him the support of the party room. No one is under any illusion about Turnbull’s ideological leanings, but so far he is not making the same mistake.]

  3. victoria

    [ This piece by Miranda Devine is mind boggling. ]

    Unbelievable. It seems Miranda has finally lost the plot altogether.

  4. [Either way, appeasing the left cost him the support of the party room.]

    Abbott “appeased the left”?

    Yeesh, in what way?

  5. I opened a book on jails in a library twenty years ago. The first sentence was wtte of “As all experts have recognised for decades now, there is no justification for jails.”

  6. Devine is talking of Abbott and his links to the DLP there has always been talk of Abbott being more DLP than a classic economic conservative have a look at DLP policies and you will see what I mean.

  7. [653

    This piece by Miranda Devine is mind boggling. Last paragraph]

    Yup, Abbott, the peacemaker…the conciliator…that architect of consensus…!

  8. As a rabid ex Abbott cheerleader, Miranda Devine is showing her innovation and agility in magically transforming into a rabid Turnbull cheerleader and now rewriting the Abbott legacy to discredit him. She’s learnt well from the Stalin show trials.

  9. Zoomster in a perfect world but we are a long way off, what do we do with the ones that continually hurt others. Experts also agree that pedophiles actually are not able to change the way that they think, what do we do with them?

  10. [pedophiles actually are not able to change the way that they think, what do we do with them?]

    OMG did you really just conflate pedophiles with fine defaulters?

  11. Vic on Devine’s quote

    [No one is under any illusion about Turnbull’s ideological leanings, but so far he is not making the same mistake.]

    She’s right, Turnbull has done nothing to appeal to the left since he became PM.

  12. briefly@652


    Try adding the AdBlock Plus extension to Chrome.

    Thanks BK, I will. Firefox is very unstable

    I had Firefox with ABP and it became really sluggish (those ads are giving ABP a run for its money). I swapped it with uBlock and ever since then, browsing has been a much more tolerable experience.

  13. When Bludgertrack reaches 51 to Labor then I’ll start to feel happier. Of course if it does, some polls will be 52 and 53 to Labor. Even if the current trend is correct, that’s still weeks out. So I’m not going to jump up and down just yet.

  14. [confessions absolutely not you don’t read a thing do you, different subject.]

    I’ve read your comments on this matter and they are pretty clear cut to me. Perhaps you need to be more circumspect and less cavalier with your views.

  15. tthe labor party need to win and deserve to win

    however i’ll take the party more seriously when it tackles core structural problems in health and ed

    maybe an inquiry into both

    all cizitens deserve equal and affordable services in health and ed – gonsky will not produce structural reform or reform gross inequities growing daily as result of private public and also the old selective school system in state

    whether owned bot state pr private — same deal same care, same quality – cap specialist and doctor fees and raise medicare fees to cover – regulate and limit insurance – no school fee or unifrom flat fees for any public funding etc etc

    let’s have some real social reforms

  16. plus a royal commission into iraq (altho the unlimited propping up of anything done by military will prvent that … ) then commission into govt role

  17. c@t, 680

    That was probably the only legitimate reason on there, and was also the only reason why I don’t think the piece is satire.

  18. Good to be a Victorian today.

    Highest State ALP TPP on bludgertrack – 53.4%
    Bill Shorten, a Victorian, showing a deft hand in Opposition
    Dan Andrews, a good ALP man not afraid to take on the Fed LNP
    And a State ALP Government kicking goals on all policy fronts and trouncing the Lib opposition

    Whats not to like?

    Just sayin….

  19. Abbot has actually been quite good of late but the fascination with him will continue, I think the left may be relying on Abbott a bit to much I don’t think he will help them as much as he did in the past. Probable been spoken to or begged to keep his mouth shut.

  20. Vic,

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m struggling to imagine what Abbott did to “appease” the left. A ridiculous proposition.

    Steelydan (who I have to congratulate on the improvement in his contributions) suggests Devine is talking about Abbott’s DLP past, but that isn’t really born out by the pride he took in all those Free Trade agreements.

    They tumbled out in such quick succession, after years of work from both sides, that you would be forgiven for thinking he just capitulated on a range of issues in order to finalise them.

  21. C@t:

    If that’s appeasing the left in the partyroom considering all the other damage he and his ilk did across the policy spectrum, then ‘the left’ can consider themselves a bunch of pussies with no authority at all!


    [A by-election during a federal campaign might not be the best option for Toowoomba South voters, Queensland Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath says, urging Opposition MP John McVeigh to quit immediately in his pursuit of a federal seat.

    Mr McVeigh has said he will formally resign from his state seat on April 29 to contest the federal seat of Groom in the upcoming election.

    The LNP has suggested the by-election be held on May 28.]

  23. Turnbull appoints some qualified new directors to the ARENA board, while gutting it of $1.5 billion, and telling them to help with the spivification of clean energy funding.

    The final say on any investment will be only be with the approval of Turnbull and Hunt.

    *Only proposals with a spiviness index exceeding 0.75 will be considered.
    *No money will be available to projects with solely an emission mitigation potential, so don’t bother applying.

    Spiviness index = Profit potential x Coalition friendliness coefficient/Emission mitigation potential

  24. [664

    WA is incarceration central. It truly is appalling how we treat minor offenders.]

    The chain of policing, charging, trying, sentencing, imprisonment and post-imprisonment is a failure from every point of view.

    Of course, the use of mandatory sentencing makes everything much worse.

  25. briefly
    Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2016 at 10:02 pm | PERMALINK

    Are you a Green-bot?

    ———dont be absurd — any reputable left wing party would want such things, and any economic realist would know they are essential to sustainable prosperity – the smug labor pragmatism evidenced in places like PB demonstrates why the greens have flourished

  26. confessions,
    I think it came in under the
    ’10 things for the IPA- 1 thing to appease the Moderates’ principle. Since repealed now Tony doesn’t have to pretend any more.

  27. As we are in a faux election campaign Labor has every right to sack the new ARENA Board members when it comes to government, just like the Coalition did with all late appointments by Labor in 2013.

  28. Petty One

    [ Wow. What biceps and chest. A great physique. Just wow. Verile sexy man. ]

    You have just convinced me that those PB’ers that think you are a man pretending to be a woman are absolutely correct. Only a particular kind of man could possibly have this reaction to a picture of Tony Abbott.

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