Our only new federal poll for the week is the regular Essential Research rolling fortnightly average, which is once again at 50-50 on two-party preferred, despite Labor taking a two-point hit on the primary vote to 35%. The Coalition is steady on 42%, while the Greens are up a point to 11%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull down six on approval to 39% and up four on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten up three to 30% and down three to 44%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 48-19 to 44-22. Also:
• Thirty-nine per cent said they would support a double dissolution if the Senate failed to pass the Australian Building and Construction Commission bill, up five since last month, with 24% opposed, up two. Thirty-five per cent expressed support for the bill itself, following a question that emphasised the extent of the ABCC’s proposed powers, with 16% opposed and 23% opting for neither. The issue was rated important by 34%, and not important by 41%.
• The tax system was rated fair by 36% and not fair by 55%. Of particular interest was a breakdown by income, suggesting a strong negative correlation between income and belief in the system’s unfairness. Typically, a question outlining various potential tax reforms found strong support for anything targeting the wealthy, and weak support for increasing or broadening the GST. Opinion was evenly divided on removing negative gearing and replacing stamp duty with land tax.
The poll was conducted online Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1010, with the voting intention result also including the results from the previous week’s survey.
The Drum
Toby Ralph, a nonentity ad exec, makes a pitch to the banks for an ad campaign against Labor’s proposed RC. He also claims, in a segment around the cultural sensitivities of climbing Uluru, that the climb of the rock is going out of fashion, ‘like smoking’ ??!!.
Anne Henderson, who I think must be Senator Cash’s godmother, suggests that a reasonable compromise on the cultural sensitivity of climbing the rock, would be to have a meeting with the indigenous owners and possibly agree to only climb it half way!
The program was a load of crap, and it was disturbing to observe the bias that is now so pervasive. For example, during the segment on the truckies tribunal, there was no evidence presented, no fact check, on the safety issues which have been thoroughly researched.
And while we’re on
‘Bushfire Bill’s Handy Home Cleaning Hints’ 😉
let me tell you my little cost saver.
If you have polished wood floorboards and they haven’t been sealed, instead of going to Bunnings and purchasing this:
http://www.bunnings.com.au/cabot-s-4l-natural-decking-oil_p1523576
for $58.90
just go to another arm of the Wesfarmers conglomerate, Coles, and purchase 4L of Rice Bran Oil instead.
You can either get down on your hands and knees with paper towels and apply it that way, or purchase an applicator from Bunnings for $14.95 if you are feeling extravagant:
http://www.bunnings.com.au/cabots-decking-oil-applicator_p1660060
I can assure you it doesn’t smell after you have done it, it soaks into the wood nicely after a couple of hours and leaves it looking a nice honey colour with a matt finish.
Any Rice Bran Oil left over you can use for cooking. 🙂
Trog Sorrenson @ 601,
For example, during the segment on the truckies tribunal, there was no evidence presented, no fact check, on the safety issues which have been thoroughly researched.
And by the guy who does Fact Check no less!
That is not anything like the article Pegsus’s link directed me to. But have I got this right the offensive remarks where made to a police officers facebook account who had changed his facebook picture to Leong’s not to Leong herself. I am going to have to look up what a swamp monkey is.
Swamp monkey. Natural inhabitant of New Orleans who shares a common style popularized by the american rapper lil wayne
“man u look like a real swamp monkey today”
Don’t see the New Orleans Asian connection but I am not up to date on my racist remarks
BB, the 3rd commandment. Try it!
Steelydan – your attempt to minimise and excuse the juvenile and bullying behaviour of the police officers in question is just contemptible.
The swamp in “swamp monkey” would be derived from the Mekong Delta and a blurry awareness of the Vietnam War, and is very obviously racist.
BK
Ah, but don’t forget, coal is good for humanity.
Steelydan
Perhaps it is a straight reference to the species ?
[596
Steelydan
The rumours from the Libs are they also rate the election as anyone’s game. They are expecting to lose seats and maybe to lose the lot!
What rumors from who? from where? if you have nothing as I expect why bullshit how does it help you on a site such as this.]
You expect me to break a confidence? Not likely! Just be assured, the Liberals know the electorate is in flux and the outcome in July cannot be taken for granted. They know they can lose just as Labor know they can win. At the very least, the result is going to be much closer than anyone predicted even three months ago.
A DD is a very risky game. But it’s a game to which the Liberals are now committed. They are well aware that they can lose everything and that they’re being outplayed.
ok got it
Steelydan,
Just because someone is a Police Officer you don’t hold them to a lower standard of conduct than other members of society. If anything you should hold them to a higher standard!
If you want to get into a debate about the efficacy of drug dogs and Police Officers patrolling train stations and rock festivals, let alone the philosophical aspects of such a discriminatory policy, then go for it!
However, what seems to be the basis for your argument is…because they are Police Officers and Jenny Leong is questioning them, therefore they have a right to racially abuse her on facebook and invite comments which refer to her mixed Vietnamese/Australian heritage after one of them thought it would be a laugh to change his fb photo to her!?!
Re Peabody declaring bankruptcy.
Of course this means thousands of jobs lost here and in the USA. That’s sad, but we shouldn’t shed any tears for Peabody’s shareholders.
What will be interesting is how many “vulture capitalists” will pick over the coal mining assets at what would have to be below fire-sale prices.
If no-one is willing to pick them up for a song, it means there truly is no future left for coal mining.
briefly @ 611,
A DD is a very risky game. But it’s a game to which the Liberals are now committed. They are well aware that they can lose everything and that they’re being outplayed.
You could almost say they’ve bet the (Parliament) House on it! 🙂
614
Dan Gulberry
The steam is going out of coal… (sorry!!)
Bluey Bulletin No 24 Only 99 days to go
KOWTOW TIME
Bluey notes that our Prime FIGJAM is off to China. Bluey trusts that FIGJAM will take it up to XI on the Unilateral Grand Larceny South China Sea, China’s massive military build up, the casual use of military force by the PLA against Vietnam and Indonesia, the increasingly despotic treatment of civil society in China, and the raft of new non-tariff trade barriers the Chinese have just whacked on Australia’s manufactured exports to China under Genius Robb’s Co-Prosperity Sphere Chinese Take Away. But Bluey reckons that Banker Turnbull will only want to do money stuff.
BLACK SWAN EVENT- GRANNY BASHING
So, Nine gets involved in some sort of granny bashing event in Beirut. And who is the Chairman of Nine? Hammock. Bluey reckons that this mob cannot take a trick.
BLACK SWAN EVENT – MANAGEMENT CORRUPTION
Bluey notes yet another management corruption shitstorm. Mindful of Bilbowe’s legal exposure, Bluey reckons that this time around it is alleged that the alleged assets of the alleged manager of an alleged organisation allegedly called Seven Network Operations have allegedly been frozen. Add this to 13 banking scandals, 7/11, PizzaPayGate, the chronic and systemic bastardisation of the contract labor system, 47 cents an hour or $10 a week, take your pick, the despoliation of the Fijian seasonal labourers and it all sort of adds up to corruption being a blow-back sort of election meme.
BLACK SWAN EVENT – LUNATIC HOTEL
Acting Prime Minister Joyce. Bluey reckons that there will be a bit of footage of Joyce being prime ministerial and that thereafter he will be sent off to the Lunatic Hotel at Drake to keep him out of sight and, preferably, out of mind.
BLACK SWAN EVENT – TURNBULL DESTROYS MORE JOBS
Bluey notes that the last white goods manufacturer in Australia shuts its doors in yet another victory for Australia’s greatest ever national Robber. Bluey does not mind as long as the city of Orange understands that it is destroying itself for the good of the nation’s spivs.
THE CAYMANS CUT OUT – CONE OF SILENCE
Bluey reckons that the only reason he can think of that the Caymans are not on the Agenda is that senior Labor figures are in it up to their necks. Bluey reckons the Caymans silence is spooky. Bluey also notes that Cameron, desperate, is going to change the tax rules in British Overseas Territories like the Cayman Islands.
Bluey reckons that the Australian Banking Association implied threat to run a mining tax campaign against exposing bankers’ rorts is a gift to Shorten. Bluey reckons that the obvious response to this is so powerful that even the stupid, self-interested, greedy and grasping reactionaries are going to shut their flaps on this brainfart. Pronto. Doomed.
WELL HUNG BUT OVERCOOKED
Bluey reckons that the more talk there is about possible hung Senate and hung House outcomes, the less likely such outcomes are likely to be. Bluey reckons that people are soooooooooooo sick of the instability and uncertainty that goes with that sort of thing. Bluey reckons that the combined majors’ share of the total vote will be larger than it was in the last two Fed elections.
LET THEM EAT SENTIMENT
Bluey reckons that Turnbull is killing consumer sentiment which has dropped below the magic 100 mark. Bluey notes that Westpac is blaming the high dollar. Crap.
FREE REIN OR FREE REIGN?
Bluey knows that occies can count to eight better than anyone but wonders whether humans have spotted the correct usage when forced to choose between giving the ABC ‘free reign’ or ‘free rein’. Bluey blames Shakespeare in ‘Richard 3’ for opening the stable gate on this one.
TRUCK STOP
Bluey notes that Shorten & Co were slow to respond to reactionaries’ Greed-based Assault on Road Safety but are making reasonable progress on retrieving the situation. Shorten was gazzumped on this one by an agile Turnbull presumably guided by Cash’s Inner and Outer Voice.
Bluey reckons that all Turnbull has to do to win with a landslide is to promise to debark Cash if re-relected.
PAT DODSON
Bluey reckons powerful speech today. Nice to see that Bill does good Captain’s Picks. That said, the stats are a huge indictment on Australian ‘civilization’. Abbott tried tents and cutting half a billion from Indigenous programs. Pearson tried to turn Indigenous people into cappos. Giles made swingeing cuts to NT Indigenous programs but, facing electoral oblivion, is changing his tune. Barnett, wanting to be thorough on destroying Western Australia, gave his best shot at destroying remote Indigenous communities. Bluey reckons that Scullion is nothing much more than a rapscallion. Nyunggai’s Advisory Council is a hand-picked crew of mainly urban Indigenous people. Remote Indigenous people are, quite simply, completely absent. And it shows.
INKY
Bluey had to take some time out to rescue a Kiwi cuz from the humans. Bluey and Inky are working on an aquarium exhibit in our rock pool. Stage one of the project plan is to teach humans to breathe water.
D’OH WRONG SPINEBILL
Bluey understands that Sandgropers are up in arms because the $5 bill has an Eastern Spinebill on it and not a Western Spinebill. Typical East Coast hegemonist arrogance, apparently. Bluey reckons that the Sandgropers should have a careful look at what the artyfarts did to the Eastern Spinebill. This done, the Sandgropers would understand that the $5 bill is a tongue-in-cheek slap in the face to all East Coasters.
Verdict for the day: evens
Cumulative: Labor 18 Liberal 6.
C@tmomma – indeed – we wouldn’t even accept this behaviour from schoolkids, let alone people sworn to uphold the law. Police officers should conduct themselves with the highest integrity, which is why, if these allegations are confirmed, the officers involved should be sacked.
briefly
Good puns, or even bad puns like yours, are always welcome. 😉
Ok briefly an election win can most assuredly not be be taken for granted and a loss of seats is probable but as for your “friend’s “maybe lose the lot” I have not seen or heard anything like that.
615
C@tmomma
🙂
They never had a plan for re-election other than putting Turnbull up on a stick and waving him around. It’s not enough. They need policies and clearly haven’t got any. They have parsimony. They have Labor-blame. But they haven’t even two policies to rub together. The only things weaker than their policies are their leadership and their strategy.
The Liberal Party must have some serious focus group research that supports Michaelia Cash being front and centre no stop on every issue Mal runs with.
She must appeal to the same group that Pauline Hanson appealed to.
Again Mal shows he’s little different to Abbott
620
Steelydan
I am not saying another word!
Trade Minister Steve Ciobo currently saying China should abide by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea – exactly what we’re NOT doing with Timor right now.
FFS!
[PAT DODSON
Bluey reckons powerful speech today. Nice to see that Bill does good Captain’s Picks. That said, the stats are a huge indictment on Australian ‘civilization’. Abbott tried tents and cutting half a billion from Indigenous programs. Pearson tried to turn Indigenous people into cappos. Giles made swingeing cuts to NT Indigenous programs but, facing electoral oblivion, is changing his tune. Barnett, wanting to be thorough on destroying Western Australia, gave his best shot at destroying remote Indigenous communities. Bluey reckons that Scullion is nothing much more than a rapscallion. Nyunggai’s Advisory Council is a hand-picked crew of mainly urban Indigenous people. Remote Indigenous people are, quite simply, completely absent. And it shows.]
Brilliant and so true. Thanks for that Boerwar.
sceptic
[The Liberal Party must have some serious focus group research that supports Michaelia Cash being front and centre no stop on every issue Mal runs with. ]
Perhaps the focus groups are all Labor voters. 😆
Re: Pat Dodson
The travesty of the aboriginal imprisonment rate is not that aborigines are incarcerated in such numbers – they are incarcerated at a rate appropriate to their crime levels but that our society has not yet provided enough “fair go’s” for enough aboriginal people to lift themselves out of bad circumstance.
Criminal actions are always the responsibility of the perpetrator no matter what other circumstance prevails. What behooves us as a society is to ensure that aborigines are respected enough, and treated fairly enough to be able to choose better pathways in life.
This years election will for the first time in many years actually have two distinct sides/approaches.
The LNP with slogans,blame but no policies. A proven legacy of failure to govern. A ballooning defect by a party fraught with infighting.
The ALP with policies, stability a good economic record for the 2007/2013 duration.
Add to that the Abbott legacy, the 2014 budget the mile long list of broken promises and slogans….plus the outside chance that the LNP have option of returning Abbott to the leadership….the campaign material is endless…
Momma meant nothing of the sort
briefly @ 621,
. They need policies and clearly haven’t got any. They have parsimony
What they do have is the pork barrel. I was just reading a story about Queensland being the battleground State for the election and Michelle Landry in Capricornia (0.8% margin) chirruping about a $100 Million jobs package for her area that the government are working on. I bet they are! And expect to see the barrel rolled out all over Queensland to save their sorry arsks! 😀
Steelydan,
meant nothing of the sort
Good to hear.
620
Steelydan
Reflect on the polls…on their direction. Clearly, T is no longer going to be enough to win by himself. The 2PP is trending away from the Libs all the time.
The most interesting stats derived from the polls will be the ones that never get published – the ones that explore the magnitude of the “undecided” vote, the issues that animate these voters and their likely leanings. These are the voters that will determine the election. There are around 4 million of them right now – at least 25,000 voters in any given Federal electorate. They are observing, gestating, wondering. They are listening to Labor. A very large number of these voters – voters that supported the LNP last time – are preparing to express themselves by choosing Labor this time. If these undecided voters break cleanly Labor’s way the election will be walk-over.
Turnbott has awakened the otherwise disengaged from their slumber. They know an election is approaching; that the long campaign is on; and, after all the ructions and disappointments of the past 7 years, they have become both more sceptical and more vigilant.
This election will be a watershed event.
Lack of equality and opportunity = high unemployment = high incidence of crime.
Yes racism exists in our justice system but if anything our justice system is too light on repeat offenders, of which many are aboriginal.
The key is intervention before crime not after it.
Would there be more job opportunities for aboriginal people if it weren’t for such large numbers of immigrants and 457 visas? There would certainly be a lot of open positions especially for low skill grade positions (cleaners, wait staff, factory hands, farm labour) that are essential for large numbers of people to get their start in the workforce.
We need to be realistic, aborigines that are able to complete their education are highly employable and are able to get and take their opportunities – what is needed are opportunities for the rest who are not able to make it that far.
Think about it.
[630
C@tmomma
briefly @ 621,
. They need policies and clearly haven’t got any. They have parsimony
What they do have is the pork barrel.]
Voters are very sick of the pork promises. It is possible to do more harm than good by making lavish promises. I reckon voters will settle for the credible rather than the extravagant.
[Re Peabody declaring bankruptcy.]
Isn’t bankruptcy in the us a simple painless way to rip up union agreements, strand people without pension funds and health insurance and to reboot the same enterprise debt free?
Isn’t making bankruptcy easier for the bankrupts one of Malcolm’s ideas? Did he legislate it?
LGH exactly well said.
You know one thing I’ve noticed since the faux election campaign has been underway?
That Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t do dress ups as well as Tony Abbott used to.
We had Tony the Volunteer Fireman.
Tony the High Vis Guy.
Tony the Fruiterer.
Tony, King of the Kids.
However, when I saw Malcolm Turnbull in WA at Barrow Island yesterday in his High Vis he just looked uncomfortable. I guess Armani don’t make High Vis.
And he had that uncomfortable look people get when they have been shoehorned in to a situation not of their choosing but of necessity.
I honestly think he might be secretly happy if he can lose the election, resign from parliament as a former PM, get the portrait up in Parliament House forevermore, and then go back to Point Piper.
[The key is intervention before crime not after it.]
Indeed closing the gap is the key and is our responsibility.
Responsibility for crime shouldn’t be viewed as a single factorial problem. We are all responsible, and have to suffer the consequences. Obviously no-one suffers more than the victims and only the criminals face the repercussions in the criminal justice system.
COTMOMMA – I’ve been speculating for a long time that Malcolm’s heart might not be in being PM. It sounds very counter-intuitive, doesn’t it. I mean, you spend 60 years of your life desperately trying to get the job, and then you throw in the towel. As Andreotti said: “Power doesn’t tire you out; it’s not having power that tires you out.”
Still, I suspect that Malcolm is a lazy bastard who doesn’t want to do the hard yards (like Shorten does). He’s ticked PM off his bucket list and now he’d like to enjoy his wealth without having to deal with the dickheads in his party.
[L G H
Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2016 at 8:04 pm | Permalink
Lack of equality and opportunity = high unemployment = high incidence of crime.
Yes racism exists in our justice system but if anything our justice system is too light on repeat offenders, of which many are aboriginal.]
So simplistic that it is hardly worth commenting on. For example you ignore completely the rate of policing effort. You might also cast your mind to working out how people who steal millions of dollars in our society never ever bump into a policeman while people who do nothing much more than have a drink in the long grass are almost certain to be harassed by the police.
We are also responsible through the criminal justice system, a company can kill a person at work and leave with a very light slap in the wrist. You try robbing a service station with a knife and getting $200 from the till. Incarceration is the most expensive and least effective response to crime we know but collectively we love it.
More WA Aboriginal people are jailed for fine defaulting than anywhere else in the world, apparently. Many even choose a jail sentence to clear their debt than take community service if they can’t pay it back. Something like a quarter of WA’s prison population are fine defaulters, one in three Aboriginal women in WA jails being fine defaulters and 42% of Aboriginal people in jails being fine defaulters.
[A total of 42 per cent of Western Australia’s jailed fine defaulters are Aboriginal, which slightly exceeds the rate of overall Aboriginal imprisonment in the state with the highest indigenous incarceration rate. The number of Aborigines going to jail for unpaid fines has boomed by 480 per cent, from 101 in 2008 to 590 in 2013.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/women-choosing-jail-to-clear-their-debts/news-story/fcf517e54b185671d61fa30384c31940
And did I mention that people are reportedly choosing jail over other corrective services measures. Yes, choosing jail over community service.
This is not something to ‘well said’ or ‘crime fits the punishment haw-haw’ about. This is a serious policy and legislative fail.
Kevin-17,
Wait until the book comes out about Malcolm’s time!
It’ll put Niki Savva’s book about Tony in the shade! Everyone in the Liberal Party will be willing to go on the record for that one!
Boerwar
[ So simplistic that it is hardly worth commenting on. ]
The fact that LGH and Stoolie Dan appear to be ‘simpatico’ tells you all you need to know about either one of them.
I think Pat Dodson made a good point today at the NPC. He said that the problem with the high incarceration rate for Indigenous Australians is that is the default position for them when it comes to Sentencing options but that it just throws them into a place where they instantly become depressed, so it also becomes the place where they suicide, and so because there are so many per capita in the prison population they have had to design cells with no hang points.
Also that it is a vicious circle, which just causes young black lives to spiral down and down and out of control once they get into the Corrective Services system.
What they need is respect, understanding and education. A way to pull them out of their death spiral.
He was also willing to give the Healthy Welfare Card trial a go if it could be made to work to get them off the grog. One of the major causes of their problems in the first instance.
Malcolm linked favourably on his facebook page this morning to a woman truckie opposed to the RSRT. Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey:
[Beneath the partisan politicking of the government’s use of the Road Safety Remuneration Tribunal as a wedge against Labor is both a complex safety debate and a disturbing, and ongoing, tragedy.
The purpose of the tribunal, set up in 2012 by the Gillard government, is to improve safety in the road transport sector through remuneration, standards and dispute resolution. But primarily, it’s about the first of those: the statutory role of the body is “ensuring that road transport drivers do not have remuneration-related incentives to work in an unsafe manner” and “removing remuneration-related incentives, pressures and practices that contribute to unsafe work practices”.
That is, to ensure remuneration is both sufficient and structured so that truckies can work in a safe manner without suffering a financial penalty. Road transport is the country’s most dangerous industry: data from Safe Work Australia shows that the transport sector overall accounts for 15% of workplace fatalities, putting it ahead even of agriculture in terms of employees killed on the job. In most industries, there’s little or no link between remuneration and workplace safety — getting paid poorly or in a way that creates perverse incentives isn’t likely to directly lead to injury or death on the job. But the tribunal was established on the basis that road transport in unusual in having such a link.
But the very idea that there’s a link between remuneration and safety is contested by employers in the industry, because once you accept that link it becomes much harder to reject improved remuneration. The Coalition has reviewed the tribunal not once but twice since coming to office…]
…
[Employment Minister Michaelia Cash has suggested GPS tracking of all heavy vehicles as an alternative approach to addressing enforcement of driving hours regulations, which would be a significant imposition of surveillance on both the industry (many larger firms already operate GPS tracking systems, but smaller firms and most owner-operators do not) and individual drivers. But by and large the government prefers not to talk about safety, preferring instead to concentrate on trying to link Bill Shorten to trade unions and talking about a “crisis” that will destroy livelihoods and drive up freight costs.
However, whether you accept or deny a link between remuneration and safety, road transport still kills far too many employees and other people, and no politician is serious about the issue unless they have a workable and implementable policy to improve enforcement of driving hours regulations.]
Confessions. The fines you talk of make it sound like they are for driving offences they are not they are for unpaid fines for crimes that they have committed. And yes they do choose to go to prison after many attempts to get the fines payed off by other means, but most are so dysfunctional they can not turn up to work programs, there is every help agency you can think of available in the town I live in and still it continues, look at the statistics ok throw some more money look at the statistics throw some more money and so it has gone on for the last 30 years.
This site is becoming unusable. The pages consistently jam whether using Firefox or Chrome. I suspect the ads being run the cause.
briefly
Try adding the AdBlock Plus extension to Chrome.
Boerwar
Another fine contribution by bluey 🙂