Essential Research: 50-50

The two parties are once again locked together in the latest reading of the Essential Research rolling average, which find further evidence for a rapid deterioration in Malcolm Turnbull’s public standing, and a steady recovery in Bill Shorten’s.

Our only new federal poll for the week is the regular Essential Research rolling fortnightly average, which is once again at 50-50 on two-party preferred, despite Labor taking a two-point hit on the primary vote to 35%. The Coalition is steady on 42%, while the Greens are up a point to 11%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull down six on approval to 39% and up four on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten up three to 30% and down three to 44%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 48-19 to 44-22. Also:

• Thirty-nine per cent said they would support a double dissolution if the Senate failed to pass the Australian Building and Construction Commission bill, up five since last month, with 24% opposed, up two. Thirty-five per cent expressed support for the bill itself, following a question that emphasised the extent of the ABCC’s proposed powers, with 16% opposed and 23% opting for neither. The issue was rated important by 34%, and not important by 41%.

• The tax system was rated fair by 36% and not fair by 55%. Of particular interest was a breakdown by income, suggesting a strong negative correlation between income and belief in the system’s unfairness. Typically, a question outlining various potential tax reforms found strong support for anything targeting the wealthy, and weak support for increasing or broadening the GST. Opinion was evenly divided on removing negative gearing and replacing stamp duty with land tax.

The poll was conducted online Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1010, with the voting intention result also including the results from the previous week’s survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

757 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

Comments Page 12 of 16
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  1. lizzie, she is quite shameless in her relentless bullshitting. I wonder how many people are taken in, or can bear to listen to her for more than 30 seconds.

  3. While we’re on cleaning, the best solution apart from bi-carb is steam cleaning. Doing away with expensive, polluting and often caustic chemicals is a bit of a liberation.

    And bi-carb with steam is a great combination for showers.

  4. [ or can bear to listen to her for more than 30 seconds. ]

    I think the technique is “believe and agree and then i’ll shut up”.

    I’m sure that in the case of the odious Cash we should be protected under some UN convention to do with torture or cruel and unusual punishment??

  5. Sky News Australia
    3m3 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Govt has the numbers! “I’m inclined to support the abolition of the RTST…I want to be sure $4m is spent on safety” Dio Wang (@ljayes)

  6. I daresay this is what Ms Cash said this morning on ABC774

    [ABC Radio Melbourne – Verified account ‏@774melbourne

    Real estate agents are “literally up in arms” about Labor’s negative gearing policy, says @SenatorCash #auspol]

  7. [ Real estate agents are “literally up in arms” about Labor’s negative gearing policy, says @SenatorCash #auspol ]

    Oh! Spivs upset?? Cash Screeching?? Must be good policy then. 🙂

  9. victoria @555,

    If that is the case then so be it.

    Labor has done the right thing supporting its retention.

    If the tribunal is abolished then nothing will happen to improve safety concerns and financial security for drivers. The government will move on claiming a victory but improving nothing.

    I will still wait with interest to see how this unfolds next week. A bit more to this story yet.

    Cheers.

  10. She repeated ‘literally thousands of mums and dads have been contacting me’, a few times on AM this morning, although that’s not quite so bad, assuming she checked all their marital status and evidence of offspring.

  12. [Real estate agents are “literally up in arms” about Labor’s negative gearing policy, says @SenatorCash #auspol ]
    One of the least trusted professions raising a ruckus.

    Perhaps they’ll have to find some honest work in the future, like selling used cars.

  13. Oh. Appears Ms Cash was on ABC774 this afternoon

    [John Wren
    32m32 minutes ago
    John Wren ‏@JohnWren1950
    .@senatorcash being her obnoxious best on @774melbourne shouting shit over the top of @raf_epstein & Dreyfuss. #auspol]

  14. There must be an election in the air!

    [Rowan
    41s41 seconds ago
    Rowan ‏@FightingTories
    The Gov have rolled out their twitter trolls. So many accounts with 0 to 10 follower making pro Gov comments & attacks (lol)]

  16. Sky News Australia
    27m27 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    WA Premier @ColinBarnett will recall state parliament for a joint sitting to see Pat Dodson endorsed for @AuSenate vacancy (@Dan_Bourchie

  17. Elysse Morgan ‏@ElysseMorgan 10h10 hours ago

    Fifty leading Australians urge Malcolm Turnbull to put budget fairness before tax cuts

    There fairness, or fairness of the poor?

  19. On today’s The Drum bias watch we have two raving right wingers in Toby Ralph and Anne Henderson, someone closer to the centre in a Daily Telegraph journalists and someone who tends left of centre in Jamila Rizvi.

    Plus John Barron who sits somewhere around the same place as Daily Telegraph journo Sarah Le Marquand.

    Tipping really badly to the right.

    It’s a good thing that only political tragics watch the Drum. But it reflects really poorly on the same buggers who buried any criticism of the NBN because they were intimidated by Turnbull.

  20. [Federal election: The 20 seats that could fall to cause a hung parliament]

    For those who think the Coalition will still win, who would have thought three months ago that James Massola would be writing an article with this headline now?

  21. [Real estate agents are “literally up in arms” about Labor’s negative gearing policy, says @SenatorCash #auspol]

    I’ll cry myself to sleep tonight. Poor real estate agents, doing it tough.

  24. TPOF

    You’ve probably noticed it as well. The questions in The Drum are far too long winded – more like a short argument. The person about to reply usually tries to get going at least three times while the questioner talks on and on.

  27. TPOF

    [It’s a good thing that only political tragics watch the Drum.]

    That also applies to ABC24 more broadly.

    For some unknown reason I turned on the Drum on Monday afternoon (I got home early from work, and wanted something to watch while I downed a G&T). A former Murdoch/News Ltd henchman, and a lunatic RWNJ woman who was styled a ‘journalist’. It was absolute crapola.

  29. Glad I don’t watch The Drum – sounds like a real shit show.
    And if a Daily Telegraph journo is representative of the centre, it doesn’t say much about the rest of the panel!

  30. The word literally is one of the most misused words in the English language, along with unique, as in very unique.

    You’d think someone with Ms Cash’s obvious intelligence and education would know better.

  31. Christ! It’s hard to argu with this:

    [Only because it strips the protective passivated layer from the surface.

    Stainless steel and chlorine based compounds are rarely a good mix. They are one of the few classes of compounds that can destroy stainless fairly quickly. In particular avoid standard bleach, and hydrochloric acid.

    Some grades are more resistant than others. 316 – which is what most sinks are made from – is about twice as resistant as 304. But that isn’t saying much when 316’s upper limit for prolonged contact is about 4ppm, which is way below the concentration in standard bleach. ]

    All I can say is that it works. The vinegar afterwards neutralizes the chlorine and al is sparkly and wekk.

    And besides: no one ever accused me of cleaning a sink so aggressively that I rubbed through the metal.

  32. http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/13/labor-and-greens-battle-government-over-minimum-pay-rates-for-truck-owner-drivers
    [Labor and the Greens have locked in behind the tribunal which sets minimum pay rates for truck owner-drivers, setting the scene for a stoush with the government when parliament is recalled and during the election.

    The government originally proposed to delay the pay order and abolish the tribunal after the election. Senator Glenn Lazarus forced the issue by calling for the immediate abolition of the tribunal, which was backed by Jacqui Lambie.

    So far five of eight crossbench senators have expressed support to abolish the tribunal. Senators Dio Wang, Ricky Muir and John Madigan have not supported abolishing it, instead favouring delay of the pay order.]

  34. The online racist and sexist intimidation and harassment of NSW Greens parliamentarian Jenny Leong:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/13/i-introduced-a-bill-to-repeal-a-police-program-in-response-i-was-harassed-by-police
    [When I introduced a bill to repeal the New South Wales Drug Detection Dog Program one year on from my election as the member for Newtown, I was delivering on an election promise. The NSW Drug Detection Dog Program does not work. In 2006, the independent NSW Ombudsman recommended an end to the program.

    The response to the introduction of the bill – or more specifically to a photo we posted of two police officers with a sniffer dog on a train – kicked off a Facebook furore. What began as some genuine criticism and questioning of the policy, quickly descended into offensive and menacing comments, made all the more concerning when it was revealed that serving members of the NSW police were directly involved. We have referred this matter to the police integrity commission.]

  35. While I am diametrically opposed to Lambie’s politics on just about every scale, I have to admit I love to hear her sticking it to them in her unique and totally blunt fashion. Her interview on RN Drive was an absolute treat!

  36. TPOF, first time I’ve seen a “Drum” episode in toto.

    You say: “On today’s The Drum bias watch we have two raving right wingers in Toby Ralph and Anne Henderson, someone closer to the centre in a Daily Telegraph journalists and someone who tends left of centre in Jamila Rizvi. Plus John Barron who sits somewhere around the same place as Daily Telegraph journo Sarah Le Marquand. Tipping really badly to the right.”

    Bizarrely, in many ways the DTs Sarrah Le Marquand came across as more to the “left” than Rizvi (who disappointed terribly) to me. Barron sounded like a personal pal of the execrable Toby Ralph. What a woeful, ill informed lot they all (except perhaps SLM) were!

    Well, I’ve seen “The Drum” now. I don’t think I’ll inflict it on myself again.

  37. 570
    TPOF

    The rumours from the Libs are they also rate the election as anyone’s game. They are expecting to lose seats and maybe to lose the lot!

  38. ALP Victorian premier Daniel Andrews showing leadership on countering domestic violence:
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/13/victoria-allocates-572m-to-fund-family-violence-inquiry-recommendations
    [The Victorian government has allocated more than half a billion dollars towards funding the extensive list of 227 recommendations from the royal commission into family violence, the premier, Daniel Andrews, announced on Wednesday.

    Andrews said $572m would be made available over the next two years as part of the family violence funding blitz for housing services, courts, crisis support and education.]

  43. Did anybody notice that the Sportsbet odds have dropped for labour from 4.50 to 3.50 and coalition has gone up from 1.20 to 1.30. Few months ag it was 1.10 to 5.50

  44. Pegasus read the article what where the offensive remarks what makes her think police have made them, the article seems to be about getting rid of Police sniffer dogs and sexism/racism thrown in there somehow, a bit confusing at best shouting sexism/racism to push her own agenda at worst.

  45. [ Real estate agents are “literally up in arms” about Labor’s negative gearing policy, says @SenatorCash #auspol ]

    And Real Estate Agents, who make more money the higher real estate prices go, especially when they are being bid up by Property Investors searching for property to minimise their taxable income and tax…are the objective authority in this matter because???

    Does Cash know how ridiculous that claim looks in black and white?

  46. The rumours from the Libs are they also rate the election as anyone’s game. They are expecting to lose seats and maybe to lose the lot!

    What rumors from who? from where? if you have nothing as I expect why bullshit how does it help you on a site such as this.

  48. Steelydan @ 594:

    [NSW police are investigating allegations that serving police officers posted sexist and racist comments on social media that targeted Greens MP Jenny Leong.

    Sworn officers — including senior management — are accused of trolling and harassing the Newtown MP with racist and sexist posts on social media, Fairfax has revealed.

    Officers at Sydney City, Kings Cross, Bankstown and Cabramatta local area commands are among those allegedly in the incident, which Ms Leong has referred to the Police Integrity Commission.
    In one incident, an officer allegedly changed his Facebook profile picture last month to a photograph of Ms Leong and sparked a wave of likes as well as sexist and racist replies.
    Many of the posts took aim at Ms Leong’s ethnic background, including one post that referred to her father as a “swamp monkey”.

    Another police officer allegedly wrote: “Wow Jenny. It was clearly a mistake when your father spotted your mother across a crowded swap (sic) and dragged her back to his hut to make you.”

    Among the comments, a Sydney detective allegedly wrote in reply: “She is still copping a smashing — love it!”]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/crime/police-to-probe-alleged-sexist-and-racist-online-abuse-of-greens-mp/news-story/df1c9e3049fed5f5390f83306c1454d6

    This is disgusting behaviour, and any officer found to have acted this way should be sacked.

  49. Pegasus: “There is no ambiguity what she wants to communicate, calling a spade a spade!”

    Except in this case she’s confused a bloodied D9 bulldozer with a trowel. Ignorance, sadly , breeds such silly, no, murderously stupid, decisions.

  50. Pegasus: “There is no ambiguity what she wants to communicate, calling a spade a spade!”

    Except in this case she’s confused a bloodied D9 bulldozer with a trowel. Ignorance, sadly , breeds such silly, no, murderously stupid, decisions.

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