Essential Research: 50-50

The two parties are once again locked together in the latest reading of the Essential Research rolling average, which find further evidence for a rapid deterioration in Malcolm Turnbull’s public standing, and a steady recovery in Bill Shorten’s.

Our only new federal poll for the week is the regular Essential Research rolling fortnightly average, which is once again at 50-50 on two-party preferred, despite Labor taking a two-point hit on the primary vote to 35%. The Coalition is steady on 42%, while the Greens are up a point to 11%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull down six on approval to 39% and up four on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten up three to 30% and down three to 44%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 48-19 to 44-22. Also:

• Thirty-nine per cent said they would support a double dissolution if the Senate failed to pass the Australian Building and Construction Commission bill, up five since last month, with 24% opposed, up two. Thirty-five per cent expressed support for the bill itself, following a question that emphasised the extent of the ABCC’s proposed powers, with 16% opposed and 23% opting for neither. The issue was rated important by 34%, and not important by 41%.

• The tax system was rated fair by 36% and not fair by 55%. Of particular interest was a breakdown by income, suggesting a strong negative correlation between income and belief in the system’s unfairness. Typically, a question outlining various potential tax reforms found strong support for anything targeting the wealthy, and weak support for increasing or broadening the GST. Opinion was evenly divided on removing negative gearing and replacing stamp duty with land tax.

The poll was conducted online Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1010, with the voting intention result also including the results from the previous week’s survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

757 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  4. [They need to argue this and at least beat the coalition to a draw on the issue, where the MSM doesn’t just accept this is a union rort.]

    This is correct. Given the attitude of the MSM (if the ABC is any guide), the ALP is like a boxer with one arm tied behind their back. The MSM is more than prepared to accept the government lies on this issue, so the ALP has to argue with conviction and evidence.

  6. Telstra slammed for backing away from its support of same-sex marriage

    TELSTRA has caved to pressure from the Catholic Church, pulling a public campaign in favour of same-sex marriage — and its customers are not happy.

    The telecommunications giant, and one of Australia’s largest companies, copped heat on social media after it said it would no longer actively back marriage equality.

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/media/telstra-slammed-for-backing-away-from-its-support-of-samesex-marriage/news-story/a6902d4075a1580fdd37e1e5327569ff

  7. phoenixRED
    [However, a letter from the Catholic Archdiocese of Sydney, suggesting religious organisations could scrap contracts with companies supporting marriage equality, appears to have toppled Telstra’s support.]
    From your referenced article – would this constitute a secondary boycott?

  8. [ BK

    Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2016 at 1:28 pm | Permalink

    phoenixRED

    However, a letter from the Catholic Archdiocese of Sydney, suggesting religious organisations could scrap contracts with companies supporting marriage equality, appears to have toppled Telstra’s support.

    From your referenced article – would this constitute a secondary boycott?

    ]

    I would have thought that such an organisation had no need of Telstra and its communication services – I thought they got their messages *direct* from the Great Spirit ????

  10. [
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2016 at 1:06 pm | PERMALINK
    Has Bronnie got up?
    ]
    What, did she fall off the step on her helicopter?

  16. Thanks jen@503, I think Shorten will do well on this issue, industrial relations is his forte.
    I am thinking of when Labor was last in government and they didn’t seem to be able to argue a case.

  17. FBI paid professional hackers one-time fee to crack San Bernardino iPhone

    The FBI cracked a San Bernardino terrorist’s phone with the help of professional hackers who discovered and brought to the bureau at least one previously unknown software flaw, according to people familiar with the matter.

    Cracking the four-digit PIN, which the FBI had estimated would take 26 minutes, was not the hard part for the bureau. The challenge from the beginning was disabling a feature on the phone that wipes data stored on the device after 10 incorrect tries at guessing the code. A second feature also steadily increases the time allowed between attempts.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/fbi-paid-professional-hackers-one-time-fee-to-crack-san-bernardino-iphone/2016/04/12/5397814a-00de-11e6-9d36-33d198ea26c5_story.html

  22. Dick Smith’s ad was in the logical publication to reach the pre selectors, the Australian, that expense to reach 96 people most likely all on the northern beaches.

  24. IN CASE YOU MISSED THIS FROM YESTERDAY (and apologies if already posted):

    (Check out the tone of this snippet)

    Nine chairman Peter Costello makes a triple play on broadcaster’s shares

    Nine Entertainment’s board knew what it was doing when appointing our former treasurer Peter Costello as the broadcaster’s new chairman last month.

    With its stock continuing to drag along at all-time lows on Friday, our man of action waded in with an order that more than tripled his holding of Nine shares.

    Nine’s filing with the ASX on Monday revealed that Costello had acquired 220,000 shares at just under $1.11 each – a total cost of $244,400.15.

    Not bad given the same stock cost $451,000 in the 2013 initial public offering.

    Nine insiders described it as Costello’s greatest contribution to the network since doing the macarena on Nine’s Midday show with Kerri-Anne Kennerley. That was 20 years ago this year.

    Now imagine if he offers Nine Entertainment as a hot stock tip to the boys and girls he oversees as chairman of the Future Fund? He will be in the money in no time.

    Unfortunately, Costello’s astute investment choice did not impress investors who sold the stock down to fresh lows on Monday – obviously worried our former treasurer was demonstrating the sort of financial abandon that led him to piss away the biggest mining boom in the nation’s history on income tax cuts.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/cbd/nine-chairman-peter-costello-makes-triple-a-play-on-broadcasters-shares-20160411-go3999.html#ixzz45aE0tB2C

  25. Myriam Robin reviews Jensen’s book.

    [“A work of erotic fiction.”
    I don’t agree with this characterisation. It’s a fairly standard military thriller in the style of Tom Clancy, whom Jensen nominates as one of his favourite authors. The overwhelming majority of the book is taken up with intensely detailed descriptions of military weaponry and tactics. Scoff if you want, but Clancy’s sales are proof plenty of people love this stuff. Once you read the book, it becomes clear that the The Skywarriors’ eroticism tag is preposterous. The only things described in explicit and loving detail in the 200-page novel are military operations. As for the sex that is in there — well, it’s hardly in there! The one sex scene is brief and towards the beginning — the villain gets a blowjob. ]

  26. Don’t believe the hype that ASIC is the solution to the Banking sector corporate culture problems:

    [ But the problem is that ASIC was already dysfunctional before the government’s cuts kicked in. This is a “regulator” that was described by a Senate committee report by Labor, the Nationals, the Greens and independents in 2014 as “a timid, hesitant regulator, too ready and willing to accept uncritically the assurances of a large institution that there were no grounds for ASIC’s concerns or intervention” and one that “has limited powers and resources but even so appears to miss or ignore clear and persistent early warning signs of corporate wrongdoing or troubling trends that pose a risk to consumers”.

    This is the regulator, remember, that was so sloppy that when the Commonwealth Bank itself advised ASIC that it had breached an enforceable undertaking it had given the regulator, ASIC staff simply lost the letter and never bothered to follow up. That was after repeated warnings by whistleblowers about the Commonwealth Bank’s wealth management arm defrauding customers, forging signatures and otherwise ripping them off. And remember, that was in an industry where ASIC said it already had “long-standing, publicly-expressed concerns”.

    God knows what cowboys in other financial industries got away with.

    The government’s response to that inquiry report was beyond feeble. Not merely did it reject the recommendation of a royal commission, it ignored recommendations to increase penalties for breaches by financial services licensees, ignored recommendations for a major overhaul of protection for corporate whistleblowers — where Australia performs comparatively poorly internationally — and rejected a recommendation that ASIC’s special enforcement account — its litigation war chest — be increased. The government agreed fully with just eight of 61 recommendations, mostly trivia that ASIC could do without additional resources. At that time, the government’s focus was on reducing regulation on the financial planning sector by gutting the future of financial advice (FOFA) legislation at the behest of the big banks. ]

    (From today’s Crikey)

  27. universal health care with access and equity

    universal education with access and equity tied to govt funds

    labor 53.5-46.5 will do

    still not sure lines 1 and 2 compatible with 3

  30. Bridie Jabour ‏@bkjabour 2m2 minutes ago

    Turnbull and Morrison finally on united ticket – that Bronwyn Bishop should not be preselected

  31. lizzie,
    That Darren Lyons character thinks that the key to success is being a clown in public and a bully behind closed doors.

    Of course, being a Liberal, he is blaming Labor for a vendetta, not that he has been caught with his political pants down.

    When hard evidence has emerged of his inappropriate behaviour he has tried to explain it away by saying, wtte, “Sure, I get a little upset when I don’t get my way! Especially considering all the great things I want to do.”

    Looks like just another little dicktator to me.

  33. [526
    C@tmomma

    Don’t believe the hype that ASIC is the solution to the Banking sector corporate culture problems]

    There is a fundamental problem with law enforcement in the banking sector. The problem is that were any corporation to be convicted of a criminal offence relating to the dishonest handling of financial assets – say, the offence of stealing or of fraud – it would be almost impossible for such a corporation to also hold a banking licence.

    As a result, no bank has been or will be charged with such offences even though there are plenty of instances that should attract prosecution. Were such acts to be committed by lesser corporations or by individuals they would certainly be charged, convicted and sentenced.

    Were a bank to be convicted of stealing its licence would have to be revoked. Chaos would certainly ensue as a result. This effectively means that banks have been able to place themselves beyond the law – an obviously intolerable situation. This cannot be addressed by ASIC or any other enforcement or prudential agency. It has to be dealt with by the Parliament.

  34. C@tmomma

    He was called a paparazzi in one article. How a photographer could possibly have the right skills for managing a huge and varied council area like Geelong beats me. I suppose he thought that a bright idea every now and again (and a change of hair colour) would be all that was needed. I believe that this shows up the problems with direct elections.

    (Confession: I used to work for one of the Geelong Region Councils before amalgamation.)

  35. [“A work of erotic fiction.”
    I don’t agree with this characterisation. It’s a fairly standard military thriller in the style of Tom Clancy, whom Jensen nominates as one of his favourite authors. The overwhelming majority of the book is taken up with intensely detailed descriptions of military weaponry and tactics. Scoff if you want, but Clancy’s sales are proof plenty of people love this stuff. Once you read the book, it becomes clear that the The Skywarriors’ eroticism tag is preposterous. The only things described in explicit and loving detail in the 200-page novel are military operations. As for the sex that is in there — well, it’s hardly in there! The one sex scene is brief and towards the beginning — the villain gets a blowjob. ]

    IIRC, Nikki Savva’s ‘Road to Ruin’ got the exact same review, verbatim.

  36. phoenixRED@506

    Telstra slammed for backing away from its support of same-sex marriage

    TELSTRA has caved to pressure from the Catholic Church, pulling a public campaign in favour of same-sex marriage — and its customers are not happy.

    The telecommunications giant, and one of Australia’s largest companies, copped heat on social media after it said it would no longer actively back marriage equality.

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/media/telstra-slammed-for-backing-away-from-its-support-of-samesex-marriage/news-story/a6902d4075a1580fdd37e1e5327569ff

    I don’t understand why Telstra feels the need to do this. Vodafone and Optus has the same stance, so if the Church don’t want to do business with Telstra anymore, they’re shafted.

  37. 6

    4

    Sky News Australia
    2h2 hours ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Michaelia Cash says announcement will be made within 48 hours on whether federal govt will pay Qld Nickel workers’ entitlements ( liztilley8

  38. Enjoyable article in the Grauniad by Josh Bornstein, http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/13/alarmism-economic-idiocy-and-orwellian-appointments-three-years-of-political-disaster

    …
    [Alex Hawke’s prediction that Australian conservatives would look to their counterparts in the US resonates precisely because the US Republicans increasingly make no sense.]
    …

    [The federal government is hostage to the campaign run by Abbott in opposition – a campaign had three essential features: it was ruthlessly prosecuted, very successful and, finally, completely and utterly irrational.]

    …

    [Exactly how the federal government would cut taxes, reduce government debt and transition to a budget surplus, boost infrastructure and not cut major expenditure like health, education and the pension was never made clear. Nor could it be made clear. The laws of mathematics do not accommodate such idiocy.]

    Good read.

  39. never saw catholic church boycotting other businesses – for climate refugee israel or any other of dozen causes with arguably more moral imperative certainly as much (even in their books) as this — catholics cant seem to do a thing right lately — rememebr how pell instructed faithful not to vote greens something never change

  40. Raaraa

    I and my whole family are Catholic and for the Catholic Church to be telling Telstra what to do after the Royal Commission in to Child Sex Abuse by the Catholic Church they should just shut up.

  42. Barnaby Joyce is running the country! What a time to be alive!

    The PM will be absent in China for no more than two days before hustling home, possibly worrying all the way that he’s left a bull in a China shop back in Canberra.

    It’s the most exciting time in history to be alive, he’s been insisting. And today, when he steps on a plane for China, indisputably, he’s right.

    We admit there’s some irony in the arrangement that requires Malcolm to leave the country for his prophecy to be fulfilled.

    Oh, irony, thy name is Barnaby.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/barnaby-joyce-is-running-the-country-what-a-time-to-be-alive-20160413-go5bl9.html#ixzz45gT6GE00

  43. The Age ‏@theage 3m3 minutes ago

    Tributes flow for Bryan Noseda crushed to death by his own cement truck in Apollo Bay http://bit.ly/

    Worker Safety should be included at this Election, and full on frontal attack on companies and LNP for neglecting safety standards.

  44. Re Turnbull’s trip to China, there was an article in the SMH today shares for various exporters to China are down, eg.Blackmores and milk formula companies.
    This is due to China putting import controls in place, and restricting products not on a specific list.

  45. [Worker Safety should be included at this Election, and full on frontal attack on companies and LNP for neglecting safety standards.]

    It’s a well known fact that any concern about worker safety is just a cunning ruse by the union movement to attract more members.

    I know because that nice Ms Cash told me so in her dulcet tones.

  46. @John/544

    Yup, and it will go further down if Australian companies/customs/etc restrict even more imports of Health/Baby products.

  47. adrian

    I was sitting waiting for my car to be ready when le Cash appeared on the screen. It was pure coincidence that a nearby toddler chose to scream throughout her speech, but I found it a blessed relief. She pro-noun-ces her words so care-ful-ly that the meaning is sometimes hard to grasp – quite apart from the strident tone. Unfortunately every time I see her I remember the claws held up in the Senate.

  49. autocrat

    An excellent assessment by Bornstein.

    Includes:
    [Christianity is, if you will forgive me, a broad church. It’s a fair bet that Alex Hawke’s reportedly preferred flavour, Hillsong, has little in common with that promulgated by the world’s most prominent Christian, Pope Francis, who condemns “ideologies that defend the absolute autonomy of the marketplace and financial speculation.”

    …If Christianity helps us understand the federal government, then it is a particularly aggressive and intolerant strain.]

    Oh, that explains so much. Hillsong is all about making money, not christian charity. How many of our ‘leaders’ (sic) are in this sect, I wonder.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/13/alarmism-economic-idiocy-and-orwellian-appointments-three-years-of-political-disaster

  50. [389
    Bushfire Bill

    A trick I use for cleaning stainless steel sinks is to get a scourer-sponge and rub in Domestos-like (generics are cheaper, of course) thickened chlorine.

    It’s cleans the crap out of stainless steel like crazy.]
    Only because it strips the protective passivated layer from the surface.

    Stainless steel and chlorine based compounds are rarely a good mix. They are one of the few classes of compounds that can destroy stainless fairly quickly. In particular avoid standard bleach, and hydrochloric acid.

    Some grades are more resistant than others. 316 – which is what most sinks are made from – is about twice as resistant as 304. But that isn’t saying much when 316’s upper limit for prolonged contact is about 4ppm, which is way below the concentration in standard bleach.

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