After a few weeks where it appeared the trend to Labor had tapered off, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid nudge to Labor this week on the back a Newspoll result crediting it with a 51-49 lead. BludgerTrack doesn’t go quite so far, but it does have the Coalition losing a full point off the primary vote since last week. This translates into a surprisingly mild net gain of one for Labor on the seat projection, with gains in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania being balanced by losses in Queensland and the Northern Territory – the latter being the result of a methodological tweak (I continue to have very limited faith in my Northern Territory projections one way or the other). Newspoll also provided a new set of data for the leadership ratings, which have maintained their existing trajectories – headlong downward in Malcolm Turnbull’s case, and steadily upwards in Bill Shorten’s.
Two further items of polling floating around in the past few days:
• The Australian has a second tranche of results from Newspoll, relating to the Liberal leadership. The poll finds 57% believe the Liberals were right to depose Tony Abbott, down five since October, with still only 31% opposed, up four. A question on preferred Liberal leader found Malcolm Turnbull leading on 35%, Julie Bishop on 22%, Tony Abbott on 14% and Scott Morrison on 8%. This suggests only modest change since an Essential Research poll in mid-March which had Malcolm Turnbull on 39% (down from 42% in December), Julie Bishop (down one) on 13% and Tony Abbott on 9% (steady), along with high “someone else” and “don’t know” components. Roy Morgan got a very different and much stronger result for Turnbull in October, presumably because respondents were asked who they would favour if they were Liberal or Nationals voters.
• A poll conducted by Research Now by the progressive Australia Institute think tank found 63.4% of 1412 respondents felt Tony Abbott should retire, compared with only 26.3% who preferred that he remain.
Much preselection news to report this week, largely thanks to the Western Australian Liberals, who have conducted a number of important preselection ballots, results of which remain to be confirmed by the party’s state council this weekend:
• The Liberal member for the Perth seat of Tangney, Dennis Jensen, suffered a resounding preselection defeat on the weekend at the hands of the party’s former state director, Ben Morton. Morton’s winning margin in the ballot of local party delegates was 57 to seven. This was the third time Jensen had lost a local preselection vote in a parliamentary career going back to 2004, earlier results having been reversed by the intervention of John Howard in 2007 and the party’s state executive in 2010. Jensen concedes he is unlikely to appeal this time, which would surely be futile given the scale of the defeat and the enthusiasm for Morton among the party hierarchy. Jensen has claimed to be a victim of “dirty tricks” from the Morton camp after news reports emerged last week concerning a novel he had written containing a graphic sex scene, which he says was designed to damage his standing in the eyes of religious conservatives. He has also launched defamation proceedings against The Australian over a report on Friday that he had moved out of the family home to live with his girlfriend at a property located outside the electorate.
• A second WA Liberal preselection on the weekend, for the new Perth seat of Burt, was won by Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor and staffer for two state MPs prominent in the southern suburban “Christian Right” – upper house member Nick Goiran and Southern River MP Peter Abetz, who is the brother of Tasmanian Senator Eric Abetz. Storer’s win came at the expense of Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme. Another preselection vote for the Perth electorate was won by employment consultant Jeremy Quinn over a field that included Darryl Moore, the candidate from 2013; Leona Gu, a property developer and real estate agent; and Trudi Lang, who has recently had roles in France and Switzerland with the OECD and World Economic Forum.
• Liberal MP Nola Marino has seen off a preselection challenge in her seat of Forrest, which covers south-western Western Australia. Marino ultimately enjoyed a 51-16 winning margin over Ben Small, a Bunbury businessman who had “worked in commercial shipping and as a property developer”. Small had the support of Marino’s precedessor, Geoff Prosser, and there were suggestions he was serious threat. However, The West Australian also reported this week that the party’s state council would be “under pressure to rescue Mrs Marino” if Small carried the day.
• The ABC reports there are four candidates for the Liberal preselection to replace Sharman Stone in the regional Victorian seat of Murray: Duncan McGauchie, former policy adviser to the then Victorian premier, Ted Baillieu; Emma Bradbury, Campaspe Shire councillor and chief executive of the Murray Darling Association; Camillus O’Kane, an urban planner; and Andrew Bragg, policy director at the Financial Services Council and an unsuccessful candidate in the Victorian Liberals’ recent Senate preselection.
• Ninety-six preselectors will vote in the Liberals’ Mackellar preselection next weekend, drawn equally from local branches and head office. Contentiously, the former contingent includes four of Bronwyn Bishop’s own staff members. Heath Aston of Fairfax hears Bronwyn Bishop and Jason Falinski are approaching 40 votes each, with 10 to 15 backers of Walter Villatora set to decide it for Falinski on the second round.
What annoys me about the ‘live within your means’ slogan is that it portrays Australia as a poor, desperate country in dire straits. Nothing could be further from the truth.
We are in the Top 5 countries in GDP per capita. We are pretty much the wealthiest people in world history. Portraying us as poor and in dire straits is a fallacy that needs to be destroyed. We have the means, we just distribute it poorly.
If the govt is in such trouble with a debt and deficit emergency why does it subsidise people to buy 10 houses? Have tax free multi milllion dollar super accounts? etc…
Re the First Day pic, so where is Credlin ?
Also dave@1434
[
It wouldn’t surprise to see the rape allegations get another outing.
]
Sadly I think it is guaranteed to surface.
Also was yesterday for Turnbull in Melbourne a launch of his ’30 minute cities ‘ policy after it had been approved by the Lib politburo
.
Don
Do as I say not as I do!!
I also had what i thought was a cast iron gut, hence asprins without water.
Be sensible and swallow with food and water. I do my best!!!
I think if the rape smear is given yet another outing it may in fact back fire.
[Sadly I think it is guaranteed to surface.]
If it surfaces during the election campaign when the Coalition is under the pump, it will look like an obvious attempt at smear and manipulation.
It never worked for Anna Bligh when she was facing defeat and it did not work for Campbell Newman at the beginning of last year when the reality of losing power hit him between the eyes.
[Yep – but they appear to be walking away from it]
Jeez is there anything Turnbull is prepared to stand for? Anything at all?
[ Jeez is there anything Turnbull is prepared to stand for? Anything at all? ]
Fess –
*Himself*
TPOF
Yes I agree with you – unless the lady is very pretty ans gets lotsa, lotsa sympathetic media coverage.
But as on NOW the meja has decided they want Bill and Turnbull is for the high jump.
Turnbull had better call an election before parliament goes back. I really do not think he will survive a week if there is a Liberal party meeting. I think that Andrews is a stalking horse for Robb.
Aspirin thins the blood.
They usually warn people who have problems with blood not clotting or easy to bleed from taking aspirin.
dave:
This is true.
Just as well it’s not Abbott promoting “30-minute cities”, he’d be pushing for a toll road to every postcode.
(The opposition infrastructure spokesman, Anthony Albanese, notes he talked about this idea at the National Press Club in 2014.)
I agree if that smear is raised it will reflect badly on whoever is involved, however if desperate I wouldn’t put it passed them.
Re company tax, if they announce something, but delay it (ie walk away from it) then the best of both worlds for Labor, they still annoy the voters with the prospect of a future company tax cut, and get big business offside.
John Reidy
[Also was yesterday for Turnbull in Melbourne a launch of his ’30 minute cities ‘ policy]
Truffles has already successfully rolled out his 30 minute policy position policy under which backflips are never more than 30 minutes away.
Millennial@1346
To be fair, I think I’ve heard the same thing from Obama about Clinton back in 2008. In the heat of the moment, people say a lot of things.
Re JR @1502: I agree. And we know the LNP aren’t above abuse of the courts and they have supporters with very deep pockets.
don@1498
Since I have always had a cast iron gut, I just swallow a disprin. Others should do as you suggest, I agree.
So should you.
And also take it with or after food.
You know it makes sense, Springsteen for Prez in 20 !
Corey earlier in the week –
[The Australian Financial Review understands that while it remains the government’s intention to offer a company tax cut, the beginning of any phase down in the 30 per cent rate may be delayed.
Sources say specific measures like the instant asset write-off for small business in last year’s budget could be better targeted and applied for a limited time, whereas a company tax cut would impose a long-term structural burden on revenue.]
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/government-scraps-plans-to-trade-away-tax-deductions-20160404-gnyf50#ixzz45BMbcO9T
Raaraa@1500
I received the same earlier today and if you don’t hang up too quickly you will be told it is the ALP and given a number to call for any inquiries. That was on a landline as was a similar call a week or two ago.
I had a missed call on my mobile as I was slow answering and when I called back out of curiosity, it was an ALP recorded message and I bet it was the robocall thingy again.
Nothing from the Libs yet.
daretotread@1508
That is just preposterous.
Robb announced he will not re-contest his seat and his replacement has been selected, none other than Tim Wilson.
outside left@1517
Republican, I’m guessing.
Hi all, how are you all going today?
Not keen on Bill Shorten with priests at his media talk about SSM.
He does not need stunts. Everyone knows Labor’s position. I understand he is putting pressure on M Turnbull because MT walks away from everything. But it’s childish.
A serious issue does not need stunts. As you know I’m a conservative and don’t support but respect Labor and people who do support SSM.
People are looking seriously at Bill Shorten. He does not need the stunts now. It’s a bad look – as if he is using some ministers of religion to make a political point. Not good.
ABC news doing its best to spruik for Malcolm, with 5 minutes of a very self-satisfied Mal, a pathetic Greg, and a hard eyed Julie doing their best. Then we had five words from Tanya for balance.
Trouble is Mal has smug self-satisfaction oozing from every pore, and Greg looks like the kid at school with no friends and no idea. At least Julie looks semi competent.
Someone on here described Paula Mathewson as a “lefty” recently (probably steamystan). She certainly hides it in this article:
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/04/08/labor-declares-war-big-corporations/
ABC news tonight ran story on doggy building damaged by storm
They showed the shonky developer, Liberal l councillor & liberal candidate for the Auburn state seat
Oueik was wearing a lovely blue Libeal Party tee shirt
In the wake of the storm, there was outrage over the fact Auburn Council had decided to approve Cr Oueik’s bid to modify the roof before construction began in 2008.
But Fairfax Media can reveal the entire building was approved and certified by Auburn Council itself.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/insurer-rejects-stormdamaged-lidcombe-apartment-building-claim-because-of-numerous-defects-20160408-go1kz5.html#ixzz45Js0jWbe
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/insurer-rejects-stormdamaged-lidcombe-apartment-building-claim-because-of-numerous-defects-20160408-go1kz5.html
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/auburn-council-takes-legal-action-against-its-own-councillor-ronney-oueik-20160303-gn9ayp.html
prettyone
[Not keen on Bill Shorten with priests at his media talk about SSM]
Not a stunt but a way to show that there is not total opposition to SSM in the “religious community”. Something the public need reminding of before the (if it happens) referendum/plebicite occurs. Religious reasons being the mainstay of opposition to it.
DG
[Someone on here described Paula Mathewson as a “lefty” recently (probably steamystan).]
She was a media advisor to Howard 20 years ago FFS.
The Libs are getting as bad as the old fashioned far left with the “whoever is not with us is against us” stuff.
[Someone on here described Paula Mathewson as a “lefty”]
She’s pretty much a centrist according to her blog:
https://dragonistasblog.com/about/
Alarmingly she states she no longer votes. I therefore find it hypocritical that she offers political opinion she expects people to take seriously!
[She was a media advisor to Howard 20 years ago FFS.]
And Richard Alston, again around 20-odd years ago.
Pretty, keep trying.
[1491
lizzie
“His is basically the Gillard agenda, with a new coat of paint.”]
That is to say, Labor policies remain characteristically Labor….hard to see how that is any kind of weakness. But it’s good of T to point out that Labor themes are intact.
confessions
[And Richard Alston, again around 20-odd years ago.]
Ah, effin’ Richard, the first iteration of the Liberal Party’s war on broadband.
Poroti
I don’t agree.
I reckon 90 odd percent of people know their opinion already. Probably more. It’s one of those issues. Rare, but there it is.
Stunts are not needed.It’s very poor form, in my opinion. People know what they believe. They don’t need token ministers of religion up there. Just respect the fact that people have their opinions from their own experiences, environment etc.
Raaraa, apparently not.
1522
prettyone
Not all clerics belong to the Liberals.
1533
prettyone
There are clerics that wish to associate themselves with Labor’s policy. That is surely a good thing from the viewpoint of those who will benefit from the policy as well as from the viewpoint of persons of faith who also support Labor.
ajm
I’m fully aware of Mathewson’s past. I’m sure it was steamystan however that described her as a lefty because she has articles published on The Drum website.
So do the IPA arsehats FFS.
Pretty,
The plebiscite is a stunt
prettyone
[I don’t agree.
I reckon 90 odd percent of people know their opinion already. Probably more. It’s one of those issues]
Agreed . However people are open to persuasion . Minds can be changed. Heck, hang around here long enough and you may end up walking into the light 🙂
Briefly, we have a great grassroots campaign going here in Gilmore. Hoping for a Bill townhall meeting here. Libs have basically disappeared
Dan, you are correct about steamy and Mathewson
1533
prettyone
There are plenty of clerics who moonlight for the Liberals. It’s very encouraging to see some willing to express their views on a civil and legal rights matter and thereby to differentiate themselves from the Crazy Branches of the Politico-Religious Right.
1540
outside left
Excellent, o-l. Good luck with it.
PO@1333
[Poroti
I don’t agree.
I reckon 90 odd percent of people know their opinion already. Probably more. It’s one of those issues. Rare, but there it is.
Stunts are not needed.It’s very poor form, in my opinion. People know what they believe. They don’t need token ministers of religion up there. Just respect the fact that people have their opinions from their own experiences, environment etc.]
Are you saying it is poor form for priests to appear on media, to state (given the bile from Pell) the somewhat surprising idea that there are Catholic priests who believe in marriage equality?
You do not believe these priests deserve a voice, and a chance to differentiate themselves from the Pells of this world?
Additionally, any statistician can tell you that practicing Catholics are becoming either:
1) Less fertile, or
2) Using contraception.
Do you think that Catholics would have felt free to do this unless some very brave priests came out in opposition to the Vatican edict against contraception?
I heard a great joke from a priest, in the 1980s:
Q: “What do you call Catholic couples who use the rhythm method?”
A: “Parents”
outside left@1534
I’ve always considered him more towards that end, but maybe he’s trying to drag them back towards mainstream. Or I guess I’m just wrong.
Heck, hang around here long enough and you may end up walking into the light 🙂
LOL We are all in our own light.
But Bill Shorten should not engage in stunts. Step up to the plate and show his seriousness and concerns including fiscal prudence. I keep saying that. This is the only time he will have to do it.
Public will know quick as a flash if he’s been taken over by far left. Then he’s gone. It will only take a week or two. He must must walk the central way.
[Ah, effin’ Richard, the first iteration of the Liberal Party’s war on broadband.]
And so utterly forgettable that I’d, well, forgotten about him. Until I read Dragonista’s profile.
Is there a link I’ve missed for this meeting of Shorten with clergy about marriage equality?
If clerics are appearing with Shorten to support Labor’s policy on SSM that’s good. It leaves the Liberals on the outer with the Pells of the world. That’s great.