BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Coalition

The Turnbull government has resumed its downward trajectory in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate after this week’s remarkable result from Newspoll.

After a few weeks where it appeared the trend to Labor had tapered off, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid nudge to Labor this week on the back a Newspoll result crediting it with a 51-49 lead. BludgerTrack doesn’t go quite so far, but it does have the Coalition losing a full point off the primary vote since last week. This translates into a surprisingly mild net gain of one for Labor on the seat projection, with gains in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania being balanced by losses in Queensland and the Northern Territory – the latter being the result of a methodological tweak (I continue to have very limited faith in my Northern Territory projections one way or the other). Newspoll also provided a new set of data for the leadership ratings, which have maintained their existing trajectories – headlong downward in Malcolm Turnbull’s case, and steadily upwards in Bill Shorten’s.

Two further items of polling floating around in the past few days:

• The Australian has a second tranche of results from Newspoll, relating to the Liberal leadership. The poll finds 57% believe the Liberals were right to depose Tony Abbott, down five since October, with still only 31% opposed, up four. A question on preferred Liberal leader found Malcolm Turnbull leading on 35%, Julie Bishop on 22%, Tony Abbott on 14% and Scott Morrison on 8%. This suggests only modest change since an Essential Research poll in mid-March which had Malcolm Turnbull on 39% (down from 42% in December), Julie Bishop (down one) on 13% and Tony Abbott on 9% (steady), along with high “someone else” and “don’t know” components. Roy Morgan got a very different and much stronger result for Turnbull in October, presumably because respondents were asked who they would favour if they were Liberal or Nationals voters.

• A poll conducted by Research Now by the progressive Australia Institute think tank found 63.4% of 1412 respondents felt Tony Abbott should retire, compared with only 26.3% who preferred that he remain.

Much preselection news to report this week, largely thanks to the Western Australian Liberals, who have conducted a number of important preselection ballots, results of which remain to be confirmed by the party’s state council this weekend:

• The Liberal member for the Perth seat of Tangney, Dennis Jensen, suffered a resounding preselection defeat on the weekend at the hands of the party’s former state director, Ben Morton. Morton’s winning margin in the ballot of local party delegates was 57 to seven. This was the third time Jensen had lost a local preselection vote in a parliamentary career going back to 2004, earlier results having been reversed by the intervention of John Howard in 2007 and the party’s state executive in 2010. Jensen concedes he is unlikely to appeal this time, which would surely be futile given the scale of the defeat and the enthusiasm for Morton among the party hierarchy. Jensen has claimed to be a victim of “dirty tricks” from the Morton camp after news reports emerged last week concerning a novel he had written containing a graphic sex scene, which he says was designed to damage his standing in the eyes of religious conservatives. He has also launched defamation proceedings against The Australian over a report on Friday that he had moved out of the family home to live with his girlfriend at a property located outside the electorate.

• A second WA Liberal preselection on the weekend, for the new Perth seat of Burt, was won by Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor and staffer for two state MPs prominent in the southern suburban “Christian Right” – upper house member Nick Goiran and Southern River MP Peter Abetz, who is the brother of Tasmanian Senator Eric Abetz. Storer’s win came at the expense of Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme. Another preselection vote for the Perth electorate was won by employment consultant Jeremy Quinn over a field that included Darryl Moore, the candidate from 2013; Leona Gu, a property developer and real estate agent; and Trudi Lang, who has recently had roles in France and Switzerland with the OECD and World Economic Forum.

• Liberal MP Nola Marino has seen off a preselection challenge in her seat of Forrest, which covers south-western Western Australia. Marino ultimately enjoyed a 51-16 winning margin over Ben Small, a Bunbury businessman who had “worked in commercial shipping and as a property developer”. Small had the support of Marino’s precedessor, Geoff Prosser, and there were suggestions he was serious threat. However, The West Australian also reported this week that the party’s state council would be “under pressure to rescue Mrs Marino” if Small carried the day.

• The ABC reports there are four candidates for the Liberal preselection to replace Sharman Stone in the regional Victorian seat of Murray: Duncan McGauchie, former policy adviser to the then Victorian premier, Ted Baillieu; Emma Bradbury, Campaspe Shire councillor and chief executive of the Murray Darling Association; Camillus O’Kane, an urban planner; and Andrew Bragg, policy director at the Financial Services Council and an unsuccessful candidate in the Victorian Liberals’ recent Senate preselection.

• Ninety-six preselectors will vote in the Liberals’ Mackellar preselection next weekend, drawn equally from local branches and head office. Contentiously, the former contingent includes four of Bronwyn Bishop’s own staff members. Heath Aston of Fairfax hears Bronwyn Bishop and Jason Falinski are approaching 40 votes each, with 10 to 15 backers of Walter Villatora set to decide it for Falinski on the second round.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,635 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Coalition”

Comments Page 30 of 33
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  1. [NAB, ANZ bosses say calls for royal commission in banking a ‘serious distraction’]

    From what?

    I’d like to see the current explanation for credit card interest rates.

    And many other thing that exist in Insurance, and the Financial Services sectors.

  2. [as Howard publicly warned Abbott it would.]

    Wow I missed that. If even Howard, a man who thought government and public institutions were his own personal playthings thought TURC was a bad idea it must really have been a bad idea!

  3. Millennial

    You’ll need to check with FARC in Colombia to see if it’s OK. Wouldn’t want you to get on their “list” .

  5. @sharrimarkinson
    ICAC barrister Geoffrey Watson facing disciplinary action by the Bar Council for his professional conduct theaustralian.com.au/national-affai…

  6. [1447
    confessions
    [To tell a govt something it already knew wasn’t a serious problem except in a small minority of cases?    ]

    Interesting – following that logic, where the Liberals are happy to call an RC even if it’s a waste of time, then they must think there really ARE problems in the financial industry, given they’re insisting everything is hunky-dory and an RC would be a waste of time.

    The financial spivs’ return on their Liberal Party protection racket investment is going gangbusters at the moment 😀

  7. Turnbull’s meme(theme?) of living within our means does not make sense.

    If Australian corporations paid a fair share of tax instead of near zero and the extra money was not used to give away corporate tax cuts we could live within our means.

    If the tax rates were increased by 5% we could live within our means; or by 10% or 15% I am sure we could still live within our means.

    He seems to imply that the amount of money the govt. gets now is a hard ceiling – it is not.

  11. [The financial spivs’ return on their Liberal Party protection racket investment is going gangbusters at the moment]

    On that sense, yes. But honestly the spivs at the Business Council of Aust haven’t been happy with this govt for some time because it fails to do anything on tax reform.

    Rock. Hard place. My heart bleeds 😀

  13. Prediction

    AFL Coaching Cull. No.1 of 2016

    Hardwick by next week.

    Buckley (and Eddie) rolled in extraordinary AGM by end of year. “Joffa” gets the coaching gig

    (can’t get any worse really…)

  15. [confessions
    1452

    Wow I missed that. If even Howard, a man who thought government and public institutions were his own personal playthings thought TURC was a bad idea it must really have been a bad idea! ]

    Howard (usually) knew how far to push these kind of things before the blow back became too damaging. The most obvious exception being SerfChoices.

  16. I think that DTT described the ‘New Economy’ @732 yesterrday morning – either ‘8’ or ‘9’- http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/04/07/bludgertrack-50-8-49-2-to-coalition-2/?comment_page=15/#comment-2371433

    “8. Government ownership of industries even natural monopolies virtually non -existent, but with some regulation. Education, and health would be funded by government but mostly it would be provided by private operators. Former government providers would be “corporatised” and given extensive autonomy. Government would not subsidise any industries and free trade would be encouraged. Basic social safety net for pensions, but very limited for the unemployed. It is the policy agenda actively pursued by Kennet, Newman etc. This would be I think the position for most Liberals.

    9. Government ownership of industries even natural monopolies non -existent, and minimal regulation. Government role largely limited to defence and security. Education, and health would be provided by private operators. Role of government would be minimal. A basic health safety net provided but minimal. Government would not subsidise any industries and free trade would be encouraged. Minimal social safety net for pensions, but very limited for the unemployed. It is the policy agenda actively pursued by IPA. This would be I think the position for many Liberals.”

  17. [ NAB, ANZ bosses say calls for royal commission in banking a ‘serious distraction’ ]

    The more squealing from the banks the better IMO.

    I really doubt there is much public sympathy for them.

    Their own goals don’t help at all.

    Bank profit reporting season is not far off either – how many Billions in profit did I hear you say?

    But I’m sure pollsters will be asking the public what they think of the RC idea and reporting their findings in the coming weeks.

  18. Just received my cloud storage receipt…

    “You sent a payment of $138.00 USD to Dropbox Ireland Limited”
    Another Irish tax dodge

  19. mari

    BCassidy says that the coalition MPs are nervous, and DCrowe says they are confident and complacent. What to believe?

  20. [Howard (usually) knew how far to push these kind of things before the blow back became too damaging. The most obvious exception being SerfChoices.]

    Drunk on power after the 2004 election which gave them control of the Senate, and the widely accepted invincible ‘man of steel’ thing the press gallery had going. I bet Abbott felt similarly invincible after the 2013 election too 🙂

  22. 1330 @Airlines

    But it also states this in the article.

    “While Labor’s threat may boost National hopes, a Liberal source said Mr Kroger had enough bargaining chips to counteract this.

    “There are six or so seats where we can hurt them, and them choosing to preference the Nats would guarantee that we would ratf..k them in all six,’’ the source said.

    “Whereas Michael could do a deal where we spare them in one of those seats.”

    I think the Liberals are bluffing. Even Anthony Green says the Greens are only really into play with Wills and Batman. The talk six or seven seats the Greens could win on Liberal preferences is a hollow threat.

  24. DTT

    [While asprin ceretainly can cuse gastrintestinal ulcers, as a drug it is MUCH, triple then quadruple much, safer than paracetamol.]

    aspirin is a big danger for the elderly because it can cause stroke in people w high blood pressure

  25. David, 1472

    I agree. I don’t think the Greens have much chance at all of coming out of this election with more than three seats. I think that the Wills and Batman preference deal by the Libs is supposed to try and get the Greens to pour resources into those seats as opposed to trying to go for Higgins, which would understandably hurt the Libs more.

  26. MTBW:

    Three of them have gone from the leadership, hence the Buzzfeed caption.

    I wondered if it was a recent headline article about how fortunes can change so quickly, but I can’t read the small text on the front cover.

  28. MTBW:

    I think you’re right actually, it’s from the first day of their govt, perhaps taken after they were first sworn in.

  30. Um!!!!

    Jen

    Asprin is give to patients as an ANTI- STROKE medicine. Asprin is a drug that activley prevents clot driven strokes. It also thins the blood and helps prevent heart attacks.

    I think what you might mean is when there is a brain bleed. Hey medicos – where are you?

    The hard reality is that if someone goes (say a teenager) goes to the medicine cabinet and swallow 100 asprins, they might get a tummy blled but they would live. If they swallow 100 panadol, it is a liver transfer at best and death at worst.

  33. Airlines

    I could only see Higgins coming into play if the Liberals returned to Abbott or someone like Andrews of the RWNJ.

  34. My guess is that the Buzzfeed picture relates to Day One of the Abbott Government – 18/9/2013 – showing the top 4.

    Within two years, two were sacked by their party for incompetence, one retired at a time of his choosing aged 67, while one still hangs on.

  36. [dave

    Posted Saturday, April 9, 2016 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

    NAB, ANZ bosses say calls for royal commission in banking a ‘serious distraction’

    The more squealing from the banks the better IMO.

    I really doubt there is much public sympathy for them.

    Their own goals don’t help at all.]

    I agree dave. The more they try to avoid scrutiny the more people will believe they have something to hide.

    The TURC should be a warning to Labor not to over egg it though.

  39. dtt, 1483

    Now, I’m probably optimistic about this for obvious reasons, however if the Greens run a strong campaign (with ALP preferencing support) focusing on their stance on social issues (which resonates with wet Libs like ones in Higgins) as they have been doing, they stand to cleave a decent amount off the Liberal PV. Probably not enough to win, but (I hope) enough to get O’Dwyer below 50%.

    Additionally, looking at this graph of Higgins 2PP and Liberal PV, the non-Liberal share of the 2PP is trending upwards, and the Liberal PV is trending downards (though it hasn’t managed to fall past 50% yet, it was pretty close in 2010). If this trend continues, Higgins could be in progressive hands, especially coupled with a campaign like I proposed above.

  40. daretotread@1480

    Um!!!!

    Jen

    Asprin is give to patients as an ANTI- STROKE medicine. Asprin is a drug that activley prevents clot driven strokes. It also thins the blood and helps prevent heart attacks.

    I think what you might mean is when there is a brain bleed. Hey medicos – where are you?

    The hard reality is that if someone goes (say a teenager) goes to the medicine cabinet and swallow 100 asprins, they might get a tummy blled but they would live. If they swallow 100 panadol, it is a liver transfer at best and death at worst.

    Indeed.

    I take an aspirin a day as a blood thinning agent – I had a clot in one eye a few years ago which left it damaged, I have 90% vision in that eye now, not a big deal – but if the clot had lodged in my brain, I may have been in real trouble.

    It means that I bleed a lot from a minor cut, but that is a small price to pay.

    Avoid getting any medical emergency in the Christmas – New Year period from about 23rd December through to the second week in January if you live in a country town is my advice.

    I know it’s like being told you should choose your parents wisely, but there was no specialist advice anywhere closer than Sydney, if I was lucky, 500 km away, much too far to have done anything in the time when intervention may, perhaps, have done some good. And it was a Sunday morning. I took six aspirin straight off, which I believe helped limit the damage.

  41. [The prime minister began on Saturday the task of managing public expectations before the May budget, warning it would focus on living “within our means”.

    However, he confirmed his first budget would contain “changes to our tax system” designed to promote investment, innovation and enterprise.]

    Does this mean lower taxes for corporates?

    [A Labor party led by Shorten was a risk to Australia’s economic advancement, he said.

    “His is basically the Gillard agenda, with a new coat of paint.”]

    He’s trying to match the “Turnbull is Abbott” statement.

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/09/malcolm-turnbull-budget-victoria-damien-mantach

  44. jenauthor@1474

    DTT

    While asprin ceretainly can cuse gastrintestinal ulcers, as a drug it is MUCH, triple then quadruple much, safer than paracetamol.


    aspirin is a big danger for the elderly because it can cause stroke in people w high blood pressure

    Sure of that?

    It is also prescribed in small doses for people at risk of stroke to thin the blood.

  45. [NAB, ANZ bosses say calls for royal commission in banking a ‘serious distraction’]

    As serious a distraction as dragging a whole bunch of union officials and organisers, not to mention the leader of the opposition, before a Royal Commission?

    Of course, the guys who will have to answer to such an RC are paid millions of dollars a year. They have more important things to do than account for the lack of ethics that have been disclosed time and again by whistleblowers, working with genuine investigative journalists (as opposed to those who investigate nothing more than the menu when having dinner with the TURC staff).

  46. [ I take an aspirin a day as a blood thinning agent ]

    So do I. The coated Aspirin like Cartia are intended to dissolve into the bloodstream after passing through the gut to miniumise bleeding.

  48. dave@1496

    I take an aspirin a day as a blood thinning agent


    So do I. The coated Aspirin like Cartia are intended to dissolve into the bloodstream after passing through the gut to miniumise bleeding.

    Since I have always had a cast iron gut, I just swallow a disprin. Others should do as you suggest, I agree.

  49. confessions@1497

    Does this mean lower taxes for corporates?


    Hasn’t Turnbull/Morrison promised this already?

    Yep – but they appear to be walking away from it – even they seemed to have worked out other voters won’t like it.

    But I think there will at least be a promise to cut the company rate but probably pushed out a few years.

  50. Just got robo-polled regarding federal elections in Victoria. Questions asked:
    1) Which party? LNP / Greens / Labor / others
    2) How certain are you? Not quire sure / somewhat certain / very sure
    3) Which issues matter to you most? Education / environment / tax / health
    4) Age group? (can’t remember the options now)

    It was not mentioned who is doing the polling but it was conducted for the ALP.

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