After a few weeks where it appeared the trend to Labor had tapered off, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid nudge to Labor this week on the back a Newspoll result crediting it with a 51-49 lead. BludgerTrack doesn’t go quite so far, but it does have the Coalition losing a full point off the primary vote since last week. This translates into a surprisingly mild net gain of one for Labor on the seat projection, with gains in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania being balanced by losses in Queensland and the Northern Territory – the latter being the result of a methodological tweak (I continue to have very limited faith in my Northern Territory projections one way or the other). Newspoll also provided a new set of data for the leadership ratings, which have maintained their existing trajectories – headlong downward in Malcolm Turnbull’s case, and steadily upwards in Bill Shorten’s.
Two further items of polling floating around in the past few days:
• The Australian has a second tranche of results from Newspoll, relating to the Liberal leadership. The poll finds 57% believe the Liberals were right to depose Tony Abbott, down five since October, with still only 31% opposed, up four. A question on preferred Liberal leader found Malcolm Turnbull leading on 35%, Julie Bishop on 22%, Tony Abbott on 14% and Scott Morrison on 8%. This suggests only modest change since an Essential Research poll in mid-March which had Malcolm Turnbull on 39% (down from 42% in December), Julie Bishop (down one) on 13% and Tony Abbott on 9% (steady), along with high “someone else” and “don’t know” components. Roy Morgan got a very different and much stronger result for Turnbull in October, presumably because respondents were asked who they would favour if they were Liberal or Nationals voters.
• A poll conducted by Research Now by the progressive Australia Institute think tank found 63.4% of 1412 respondents felt Tony Abbott should retire, compared with only 26.3% who preferred that he remain.
Much preselection news to report this week, largely thanks to the Western Australian Liberals, who have conducted a number of important preselection ballots, results of which remain to be confirmed by the party’s state council this weekend:
• The Liberal member for the Perth seat of Tangney, Dennis Jensen, suffered a resounding preselection defeat on the weekend at the hands of the party’s former state director, Ben Morton. Morton’s winning margin in the ballot of local party delegates was 57 to seven. This was the third time Jensen had lost a local preselection vote in a parliamentary career going back to 2004, earlier results having been reversed by the intervention of John Howard in 2007 and the party’s state executive in 2010. Jensen concedes he is unlikely to appeal this time, which would surely be futile given the scale of the defeat and the enthusiasm for Morton among the party hierarchy. Jensen has claimed to be a victim of “dirty tricks” from the Morton camp after news reports emerged last week concerning a novel he had written containing a graphic sex scene, which he says was designed to damage his standing in the eyes of religious conservatives. He has also launched defamation proceedings against The Australian over a report on Friday that he had moved out of the family home to live with his girlfriend at a property located outside the electorate.
• A second WA Liberal preselection on the weekend, for the new Perth seat of Burt, was won by Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor and staffer for two state MPs prominent in the southern suburban “Christian Right” – upper house member Nick Goiran and Southern River MP Peter Abetz, who is the brother of Tasmanian Senator Eric Abetz. Storer’s win came at the expense of Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme. Another preselection vote for the Perth electorate was won by employment consultant Jeremy Quinn over a field that included Darryl Moore, the candidate from 2013; Leona Gu, a property developer and real estate agent; and Trudi Lang, who has recently had roles in France and Switzerland with the OECD and World Economic Forum.
• Liberal MP Nola Marino has seen off a preselection challenge in her seat of Forrest, which covers south-western Western Australia. Marino ultimately enjoyed a 51-16 winning margin over Ben Small, a Bunbury businessman who had “worked in commercial shipping and as a property developer”. Small had the support of Marino’s precedessor, Geoff Prosser, and there were suggestions he was serious threat. However, The West Australian also reported this week that the party’s state council would be “under pressure to rescue Mrs Marino” if Small carried the day.
• The ABC reports there are four candidates for the Liberal preselection to replace Sharman Stone in the regional Victorian seat of Murray: Duncan McGauchie, former policy adviser to the then Victorian premier, Ted Baillieu; Emma Bradbury, Campaspe Shire councillor and chief executive of the Murray Darling Association; Camillus O’Kane, an urban planner; and Andrew Bragg, policy director at the Financial Services Council and an unsuccessful candidate in the Victorian Liberals’ recent Senate preselection.
• Ninety-six preselectors will vote in the Liberals’ Mackellar preselection next weekend, drawn equally from local branches and head office. Contentiously, the former contingent includes four of Bronwyn Bishop’s own staff members. Heath Aston of Fairfax hears Bronwyn Bishop and Jason Falinski are approaching 40 votes each, with 10 to 15 backers of Walter Villatora set to decide it for Falinski on the second round.
confessions
An article about him.
[This man must be the biggest luddite in history
And unfortunately, he’s a cabinet minister for IT]
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2001/03/28/this_man_must/
prettyone@1547
And what will these far left demons do when they have possession of him?
Vogon Poet @1538
[Pretty,
The plebiscite is a stunt]
The Liberal party does stunts – it’s what they do. They don’t do policy (and when they stray and do some policy, it goes badly for them, so they avoid policy when they’re wise).
PrettyOne is right – Labor should stick to doing policy, since it’s what they do.
CTar1,
NAB, ANZ bosses say calls for royal commission in banking a ‘serious distraction’
From what?
Fleecing their customers.
Re Pretty One @1533: you are right about most people having made up their mind, maybe 90%. But elections are always about those who haven’t.
The WA Liberal state council has overturned the preselection of Liz Storer in Burt, which I presume will now go to Matt O’Sullivan, and Dean Nalder has defeated Matt Taylor in the preselection for Bateman. Both are defeats for Christian Right numbers man Nick Goiran.
ajm @ 1549,
[ Is there a link I’ve missed for this meeting of Shorten with clergy about marriage equality? ]
A march through the city to Tanya Plibersek’s office was organised today by gay activists and sympathetic clergy from the Uniting Church. Bill and Tanya spoke to them. Probably before or after Bob Ellis’ funeral.
[1547
prettyone
But Bill Shorten should not engage in stunts.]
Labor’s policy on marriage reform is no stunt. It’s a serious promise founded on Labor’s historic commitments to equality. The party with a stunt is the the LNP who propose a non-binding plebiscite some time in the non-specific future.
WB @ 1556,
The WA Liberal state council has overturned the preselection of Liz Storer in Burt, which I presume will now go to Matt O’Sullivan, and Dean Nalder has defeated Matt Taylor in the preselection for Bateman. Both are defeats for Christian Right numbers man Nick Goiran.
Thank God!
Wow! Julie Bishop has come out of hiding and boy does she look younger than before she went into hiding. 😉
William Bowe
Do you think there will be much of a backlash from what the West Australian called the “Happy Clappers” ? Do they have enough power to cause serious problems ?
[1556
William Bowe
The WA Liberal state council has overturned the preselection of Liz Storer in Burt, which I presume will now go to Matt O’Sullivan, and Dean Nalder has defeated Matt Taylor in the preselection for Bateman. Both are defeats for Christian Right numbers man Nick Goiran.]
This is a welcome development. Thanks for the posting. there are several more Liberals that warrant similar attention.
C@tmomma
[Thank God!]
😀
[1561
poroti]
There will be ructions. Hopefully the bigoted branch will lose.
briefly
[There will be ructions. Hopefully the bigoted branch will lose]
I was just wondering how much actual power/influence they have. But yes hopefully they lose…………..but not before doing some serious electoral harm for Uncle Colin.
For those interested in a more democratic election than Washingtons, the Scottish Parliament elections are on 5 May.
The latest survation poll points to considerably more pain for the Labour Party…. on its way to becoming a minor party.
If carried through on election day the SNP would increase its seats by 4 to 73, the Conservativeby 8 to 23 and the Greens by a massive increase from 2 to 14. The Labour Party would fall behind both the Conservatives AND the Greens: going from 37 to just 13 seats.
Constituency ballot :
SNP 52% (-2)
Labour 21% (+1)
Conservatives 16% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)
Regional list ballot :
SNP 44% (+2)
Labour 19% (+1)
Conservatives 16% (-2)
Greens 10% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
UKIP 4% (-1)
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com.au
http://www.scotlandvotes.com
PO@1547,
[But Bill Shorten should not engage in stunts. Step up to the plate and show his seriousness and concerns including fiscal prudence. I keep saying that. This is the only time he will have to do it.]
So if Shorten talks about anything other than economics it is a stunt?
Luckily, the ALP is quite vocal and sensible about economics:
A great example:
The poor performance of retail super funds (read big 4 banks) compared to Industry funds (where employers and employees get together (shock! Royal Commission now) to maximize the superannuation investment of employees: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-22/kohler-no-sure-thing-in-the-superannuation-lottery/6032802.
What idiot would put their super in a retail fund when you expect 25% less in the kitty at retirement. And, note, that retail funds in the rest of the world do about the same as our Industry funds, so something is very rotten in our banking sector.
A royal commission into the financial industry sector will ***HELP*** the sector. The price gouging will stop, and it will become sustainable.
At the moment the LNP policy is to kill Industry funds, so that they are no longer available as a smart investment for employees. This means that everyone goes onto the lower return retail funds (Industry super funds will be managed on the same basis, and will exist in name).
Only in Australia!
Also, if the Big 4 bank’s retail funds give 25% less in super fund balance at retirement, does this mean that the money then goes to the banks or their employees themselves?
It seems not. Australian banks do not pay significantly more to their fund managers/ employees than better performing retail super funds around the world. It seems that the 25% is basically just frittered away in poor investment decisions and red tape making sure the board members of retail funds can never be criticized for their poor investment decisions.
In the end, this system make Australia poorer, and actually defies the “invisible hand of the free market”. Australia’s banking sector is anything but free – a cartel of 4 is a good number.
Actually, on second thoughts, those figures entered into the seat allocation meter at scotlandvotes.com, don’t seem to make sense!!! The Labour Party must have more than the Greens!!
Catmomma@1557
[ajm @ 1549,
Is there a link I’ve missed for this meeting of Shorten with clergy about marriage equality?
A march through the city to Tanya Plibersek’s office was organised today by gay activists and sympathetic clergy from the Uniting Church. Bill and Tanya spoke to them. Probably before or after Bob Ellis’ funeral.]
So PrettyOne cannot even get the terminology correct, but will lecture us anyway.
The Catholic church and the High Anglicans have Priests.
The Non-conformists, including my favourite inner city religion, the Uniting church, have ministers and pastors.
PrettyOne, if you do not get these basic differences, I suggest you refrain from commenting on whether or not “priests” are a stunt.
The inner city Uniting Church has been a vocal voice for the gay community for aeons.
For the record, as William Shirer almost said, the writer of this comment is an atheist, with no dog in the fight about which religion is the “rightest”.
This is better for the Survation poll:
Seats:
SNP 71 (+2 from 2011)
Labour 23 (-14)
Conservatives 18 (+3)
Greens 11 (+9)
LibDem 6 (+1)
[Both are defeats for Christian Right numbers man Nick Goiran.]
Amen to that.
D&M
[The Catholic church and the High Anglicans have Priests.]
And even the High Anglican congregation I belong to is very LGBTI friendly.
poroti
[Do they have enough power to cause serious problems ? ]
I sincerely hope so. 👿
swamprat
The Scottish Parliament is increasing the number of seats right?
Is this coming from both the single seats and the proportional AMS? Are the increase proportional?
As the major parties lose members they become much more susceptible to being taken over by fringe groups. I think this is more of a problem for the Liberals than Labor because of the influence of the unions within the latter.
I know we hear calls for increasing democratisation in the parties, but any such moves may actually make it easier for the extremists.
D and M
Since most retail funds are index huggers, there is no justification of the exorbitant fees they charge.
Fees are why industry funds outperform retail funds. Industry funds are index huggers as well, but have a lower fee structure.
Vanguard are probably the best retail fund managers. They don’t claim to be anything other than index huggers, and they do it on the smell of an oily rag. Over the long term, Vanguard also outperform most retail managers.
[ Steve777
The 2014 Budget measures will be back in the 2017 Budget, if not befor the end of the year.
And so will the GST increase. ]
Yup, and that is Abbott’s biggest “legacy” to the Liberal Party.
From what they TRIED to do in their absurd 2014 Budget, when they thought they could bully the Senate rather than negotiating, the country KNOWS what they will do if they get the chance.
[ Step up to the plate and show his seriousness and concerns including fiscal prudence. ]
He has been pettyone, repeatedly, and its being noticed. 🙂
[ He must must walk the central way. ]
He’s talking the talk and walking the walk just fine. Your boy Malcolm seems incapable of either. 🙂
[ Both are defeats for Christian Right numbers man Nick Goiran.
Amen to that. ]
I’ll add Praise The Lord to that.
Raara,
No change in seat numbers.
Holyrood has 129 seats. 73 constituency seats and 56 regional list seats (from 8 regions)
Just heard an SBS TV news update.
Did I get it right? Turnbull is actually spruiking AGAINST a Bank Royal Commission?
Has the man gone mad?
Turnbull talks about a transition to a new economy, innovation, etc.
How does he expect Australia to do this without getting the fundamentals right? He keeps trying to sell air-fairy, top-down, solutions that lack foundation. Let’s pull this or that big lever. Let’s throw money at “innovation”. Who cares about building proper support structures?
How about the basics? Education. Health. Basic, long term science. Enabling Australians to connect with each other, via increasing their mobility and building scalable networks – whether social, technological or otherwise. Fostering a culture that values all of these things.
Throwing money at industry does little to tackle the hard problems of synthesis, such as getting the right people and resources together. A shift in focus to easily commercialised science will create an Australia only capable of reaching the low hanging fruit – though I suppose that’s better than an Australia only capable of digging rocks out of the ground. Building special hubs doesn’t scale, they become bottlenecks that service the few. A sick, stressed, exploited populace scraping by just looking after itself is in no position to chase ideas and dreams.
On the other hand, a population of well educated, healthy, mobile, networked, curious, Australians will take the initiative to find and work with each other, across all of Australia. That’s the challenge, building concrete/real structures, networks and systems across Australia that will serve as a foundation for future growth.
[ABC news doing its best to spruik for Malcolm, with 5 minutes of a very self-satisfied Mal]
Yes. That piece was a shocker. Appalling “journalism”. Straight out of the Liberal “Thought For The Day” script.
I suppose the ABC chick who did the report thought she was being “balanced”, or something.
ajm@1572
[D&M
The Catholic church and the High Anglicans have Priests.
And even the High Anglican congregation I belong to is very LGBTI friendly.]
Absolutely! I have the greatest respect and affection for the High Church ones. It is with great sadness that I have seen St Saviours in Redfern recently taken over by the low church, and all the community groups who were anchored there, who were really making a difference in what is still a disadvantaged neighborhood, were given the shove.
I went through a stage of reading everything that Anthony Trollope wrote, and so feel I have some understanding of where the High Church is coming from. Plus I have wonderful friends who are High-Church Anglicans, with whom I do not think I have had any disagreement with on social policy.
A small family history thing, but my OH’s brother’s partner’s parents met at a Social at St Saviours, and were married at Christ Church, St Laurence, in the city.
[1580
Bushfire Bill
Just heard an SBS TV news update.
Did I get it right? Turnbull is actually spruiking AGAINST a Bank Royal Commission?
Has the man gone mad?]
It’s Abbottitis – the involuntary response of those affected to automatically oppose anything put forward by Labor; thought to be endemic in some groups; cure unknown.
Bushfire Bill@1582
The ABC News I saw was reporting on the Vic Libs State Conference so you would expect it to be all about the LIbs.
And it included a very embarrassed Kroger on the subject of the money embezzled from the state branch and the sudden resignation of the state treasurer.
It was all on topic and not helpful to the Libs overall.
BRIEFLY – The libs will swim through a river of shit to do what their donors want. They are complete donor-bots. Electoral cost be damned.
briefly
[It’s Abbottitis – the involuntary response of those affected to automatically oppose anything put forward by Labor; thought to be endemic in some groups; cure unknown. ]
The cure is known. A sound defeat in an election will serve them well.
[As the major parties lose members they become much more susceptible to being taken over by fringe groups.]
The GOP experience as we’re seeing play out now. Very disturbing.
[It’s Abbottitis – the involuntary response of those affected to automatically oppose anything put forward by Labor; thought to be endemic in some groups; cure unknown.]
Maybe, but what did he think it would gain him? The punters HATE the banks. And the banks haven’t done much to alleviate that hatred lately.
Turnbull was speaking as if Labor was attacking some kind of cherished institution, a national ikon, like Steve Irwin or Banjo Paterson, or someone similar.
Jesus, spruiking FOR the banks? On the ground that it would cause “disquiet”?
The next time Turnbull disappears for a while (Hartcher would put it as “governing”) I’d like to see Bill Shorten muse that maybe he’s off in the Caymans, looking after his investments.
The pain hasn’t yet begun for Malcolm, I think.
Thanks swamprat. I must have got my elections all mixed up.
Just doing a bit of reading up on Wikipedia. Why are the SNP short of majority at the moment (based on absolute numbers)?
[Turnbull is actually spruiking AGAINST a Bank Royal Commission?]
Today, yes. Tomorrow? May be another story. 😀
[The cure is known. A sound defeat in an election will serve them well.]
Yes. They’e asking the nation to stand by, waiting for them to get some policies together, and then we can REALLY see how wonderful and agile they are.
Like a Budget that’s already labelled as “modest”, dare I say “austere”?
Where have we heard THAT before?
I’m amazed that there haven’t been leaks from Treasury about how they’re fed up with the dates changing, the message changing and about how they’re pissed off that they don’t know what Malcolm The Magnificent will decide is “In” or “Out”.
Pointless asking ScoMo… he’s not of the Inner Circle. Maybe Lucy is a better bet for hints?
What Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton say publicly about each other in this campaign is very tame compared with what Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton said publicly about each other in 2008.
On the one hand we have Turnbull floating castles built out of clouds. That’s the only material left available to him that will ascend to such heights, given his own government is busy digging up the foundation and tearing the frame out.
On the other hand we have a plan from Labor to patiently build up the foundation, and then frame, piece by piece, of a real structure that will enable Australians to ascend and stand directly facing that cloudscape, instead of merely wistfully admiring it from the ground.
Raaraa@14: Bernie was responding to a Clinton interview on Morning Joe when she was asked if Bernie was fit to be President. Her answer was the usual pollie waffle – not a NO and not a YES, but an implied inference that she thought he was not.
The Sanders campaiogn then responded with the ‘she is not fit to be President’ speech. It would have been better if they had not, but tension is high in all camps during an election.
Michael
2h2 hours ago
Michael @TheRightArticle
“#ResignCameron protests: Thousands to gather at Downing Street to ask Prime Minister to step down” http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/resign-cameron-protests-thousands-to-gather-at-downing-street-to-ask-prime-minister-to-step-down-a6976036.html …
Sorry Raaraa- should have been 1514 not 14.
[Not a stunt but a way to show that there is not total opposition to SSM in the “religious community”. Something the public need reminding of before the (if it happens) referendum/plebicite occurs. Religious reasons being the mainstay of opposition to it.]
It probably benefits the religious community more than Labor. Some non-ultraconservative religious leaders want potential congregants to know that there are congregations that welcome LGBTI and other people who don’t follow the line of the Australian Christian Lobby.
Of course there is another Scottish country: Jamaica!!!
http://www.flagupscotjam.uk
Displayname@1581, re ‘innovation’
[
How about the basics?…
]
Also how about an efficient transparent financial services industry.
An industry that have a unique place in our economy, essential to growth and equity, but it too important too critical, that we cannot risk an inquiry to ensure it is functioning properly.