BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition

Not much happening in terms of national polling this week, but a privately conducted poll finds Sophie Mirabella has little hope of recovering her old seat of Indi from independent Cathy McGowan.

The Easter weekend has meant the only poll this week has been the usual weekly reading from Essential Research, which records a tie on two-party preferred for the fourth week in a row. Both major parties are steady on the primary vote – the Coalition on 43%, Labor on 38% – while the Greens are down a point to 9%. There is accordingly not much change on the surface of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which records a gentle move to the Coalition that yields nothing on the seat projection. However, there’s a lot going on under the BludgerTrack bonnet, as I’m now doing it in R rather than SAS/STAT, and relying a lot less on Excel to plug the gaps. Now that I’ve wrapped my head around R, I can probe a lot more deeply into the data with a lot less effort – commencing with the observation that the Coalition’s two-party vote would be around 0.5% higher if I was using a trend of respondent-allocated preference to determine the result, rather than 2013 election preferences. I’ve also done my regular quarterly BludgerTrack breakdowns, featuring state-level primary votes based on results from Morgan, Ipsos, Essential and ReachTEL, together with the breakdowns published this week by Newspoll.

Further polling:

• The Essential poll found 44% would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate blocked the Australian Building and Construction Commission bill, with disapproval at only 23%. Respondents also showed good sense when asked the main reason why Prime Minister might wish to do such a thing: 25% opted for clearing independents from the Senate, 30% for getting an election in before he loses further support, and only 14% for actually getting the ABCC restored. Other questions recorded an unsurprising weight of support for income tax cuts (62% more important, 61% better for the economy) over company tax cuts (16% and 19% respectively). Results for a series of questions on which party was best to manage various aspects of economic policy were also much as expected, though slightly more favourable to the Coalition than when the questions were last posed a few weeks before the 2014 budget. A semi-regular inquiry into the attributes of the Labor and Liberal parties allows an opportunity for comparison with a poll conducted in November, shortly before the recent improvement in Labor’s fortunes. Labor’s movements are perhaps a little surprising, with extreme up and moderate down, and “looks after the interests of working people” down as well. The Liberals are down vision, leadership and clarity, and up on division.

• The Herald-Sun has a report on ReachTEL poll commissioned by the progressive Australia Institute think tank in the regional Victorian seat of Indi, which Sophie Mirabella hopes to recover for the Liberals after her defeat by independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. The news is not good for Mirabella, with McGowan recording a lead on the primary vote of 37.3% to 26.9%, while the Nationals are a distant third on 10.6%. The report says a 56-44 two-candidate preferred result from the poll allocated all Nationals preferences to Mirabella, a decision that was perhaps made in ignorance of the level of support McGowan received from Nationals voters in 2013. The primary votes as reported would more likely pan out to around 60-40.

Preselection latest:

• Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports the Liberal preselection for the new Western Australian seat of Burt is a tight tussle between Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme, and Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor. Storer is supported by the state branch’s increasingly assertive Christian Right, and in particular by its leading powerbroker in Perth’s southern suburbs, state upper house MP Nick Goiran.

• The Weekly Times reports that Damian Drum, state upper house member for Northern Victoria region and one-time coach of the Fremantle Dockers AFL club, will nominate for Nationals preselection in the seat of Murray, following the weekend’s retirement announcement from Liberal incumbent Sharman Stone. The front-runner for Liberal preselection looks to be Donald McGauchie, former policy adviser to the then Victorian premier, Ted Baillieu.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,289 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 59 of 66
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  2. [ briefly

    Posted Monday, April 4, 2016 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

    2889
    phoenixRED

    Again I say, the G’s are schismatic. They represent a consciously-made divide in anti-LNP ranks. Their methods serve the interests of the LNP. We see that again and again.

    ]

    OK – you are right and I am wrong …intransigence – and BOTH SIDES refusal to compromise on WHO needs defeating …

    Put your head between your legs and kiss your arse goodbye to MORE YEARS of Malcolm/Tony/Andrews/Bishop ….. running your life and all those door knocks won’t mean shit in the grand scheme of your life …..

  3. [ Are you just saying that Oh Lord because you know the inmates in the asylum get narky without fresh polls? ]

    Last one was two weeks ago, so….the next one is due tonight.

  4. WB @ 2892,

    When’s the next newspoll? tonight?

    Yes.

    Does that mean they lied on their website when they gave no indication they were out in the field?

  5. briefly,

    They are also living off the riff of the Rudd induced disaster of 2013.

    Latest poll I saw was the Greens vote slipping below double figures (and polls always over represent the Greens actual vote).

    I posted the Tasmanian split up the thread.

    The poor mites have lost their way. Their leader playing the celebrity Wiggle has exposed them for the vaccuous pile of nonsense they have always been.

  6. GG, 2868

    Not to say that the UTG has no chance (and I may, of course, be biased), but of all the Greens in all the land, the Tasmanian Greens are the most conservationist. They fight over 49 hectares of land like it alone will pave the way for every single Tasmanian tree to be felled. I’m not entirely sure that the UTG can poke holes in their conservation policies.

  7. [2895
    Airlines]

    The G’s have run into a wall of their own making. The Labor-leaning vote has been mined for all its worth, but this vein has been worked to the last vote. If the G’s want to prosper they will have to turn their sights on the LNP. Of course, this is much more difficult gig than deriding Labor. But it’s where they’re at. They will have to choose.

    The day will come when a Federal Labor Government will not need the Greens….and then their irrelevance will be obvious to all.

  9. My prediction for Newspoll is 51-49 to the Coalition.

    I think some people out there might have been sucked in by Turnbull and the Blatherskite’s arse-covering exercise over the weekend to explain away being traduced by the Premiers over State Income Tax.

  11. This stat
    [
    And on the weekend, Fairfax Media reported on work by the Melbourne Institute which shows the top 1 per cent of Australian earners had amassed 9 per cent of Australian income in 2013, more than double the rate of wealth concentration than was the case in the 1980s.
    ]
    Is often misrepresented by the right when talking about tax cuts, sorry tax reform.
    The wealthy deserve to get the top tax bracket cut because they are the heavy liters, they pay most of the income tax, but they neglect to mention the above figure, the wealthy have done extremely well over the last 20 years and earn most of the income.

  12. momma,

    I have resolved to not predict polls.

    I find predicting the past far more reliable.

    BTW, how’d the air con perform over summer?

  13. briefly, 2907

    I literally just told you this, they did attack the Coalition, and won (in Prahran and Ballina). Isn’t this a good thing then?

  14. In my view the Greens attract people with divergent priorities.
    Prefer coral reefs to more sugar production (or coal)
    Prefer buses and trains to more private cars.
    Prefer old-growth forest to selling woodchips to Japan (a country that carefully protects its own forests)
    Prefer self reliance and self-sufficiency to competitive advantage and rapid growth
    and so on.

    It was the failure of labor leadership to take such issues seriously that pushed people to the Greens
    Franklin dam issue one honourable exception.

  16. http://roymorgan.com/findings/6746-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-april-4-2016-201604040745

    [In early April L-NP support is 52.5% (up 3%) cf. ALP 47.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win.
    Primary support for the L-NP is 42% (up 2%) with ALP at 31% (down 2%). Support for the Greens is down 1% to 13%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 4.5% (up 0.5%; 22% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 0.5% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 0% (down 0%) and Independents/ Others are at 9% (up 1%).]

  20. DTT,

    I usually ignore your tripe because you’re a loon. ALP RWNJ? Hilarious stuff. Like the time you tried to tell me a small rural general store would be up for $110k in Carbon Tax for running their fridges. (ie their power bill was well over $1million a year).

    If Danby comes in third in Melbourne Ports I’ll eat my hat. He’ll win it and it won’t make a lick of difference what he says about preferences or even what the Greens do. Especially if as you say so many refuse to even take a HTV (you mustn’t be very good at it – I usually get em in the hand, and usually on top – it’s a skill).

    If the Greens have an open card it will make almost no difference to how their prefs flow. Danby will get about 80% because people voting Green don’t want a Liberal government. If the Greens direct prefs to the Libs they will see their primary drop with almost all of the loss going directly to Danby.

    The fact is Danby doesn’t really care what the Greens do. He is politicking. He’s trying to shake off a few Labor left gone Greens by playing up their closeness to the Libs of late. As for only getting 31% last time, that was almost all due to R-G-R. He’ll be back around the 38 he got in 2010 if not more and very likely first on prefs. Why? Because the Libs will be on the nose and particularly so in a seat like Melbourne Ports. The Libs won’t be far behind and the Greens way back in the rear distributing their preferences (mostly to Danby).

    I’m not one to take any seat for granted, but the ALP has held Melbourne Ports since 1906 and that ain’t gonna change in 2016.

  22. [Someone who should know tells me there will indeed be a Newspoll tonight. Morgan’s latest result will also be up very shortly.]

    So not so bad for Malcolm #mumblethoughts

  24. 2909
    C@tmomma

    I’m more optimistic.

    Voters really mistrust two things….the “great big new all-purpose promise” and “stunt politics”. T managed to perform both in the same week.

    Voters – if they paid more than passing attention – will likely be very underwhelmed.

    As well, voters will register that T was handed a thorough-going slap in the chops by the provincial nobility. This is not a good look for a PM; for one who is supposed to be able to hold and exercise power; one who is supposed to win the fights they start. Rudd found that losing loud fights in public soon cost him his job. T may find he cannot afford to lose any more fights. The last thing a PM should appear to be is impotent.

  25. Hi All,

    Here are the cartoons for today, horribly late. Work has gone crazy in the last few weeks. So, I may be posting cartoons in the evening, until Thurs am. Then things start to get better.

    A couple of great David Rowe’s:

    No more children in detention, except Scott.
    https://twitter.com/FinancialReview/status/716535057809219584

    Super Kev: Kevin Andrews expectations
    https://twitter.com/roweafr/status/716875889602990080

    John Kudelka in the Australian today on Malcolm and Scott’s friendship:
    http://www.kudelka.com.au/2016/04/see-malcolm-and-scott/

    Cathy Wilcox on the States picking up current Federal funding responsibilities:
    https://twitter.com/cathywilcox1/status/716733952241709056

    Tandberg on domestic violence:

    Petty on Commonwealth withdrawal of funding for state schools:

    Golding: The end of daylight saving just added even more time!

    A good chat in the pub from Weldon:

    A good one from Pat Campbell on Unaoil:

    A great one from Mark Knight:
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/d3f320001880e53efb886ffd0bd16103?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5

  27. Briefly

    You really have lost the plot a little. Have you been visiting BW. Is the insanity contagious.

    The greens have evolved a a separate party, not a hive off from Labor. Sure they have grabbed many of the left wing but given that many who joined the left of the ALP did so BECAUSE of their green position (Anti Uranium and pacifism and anti Vietnam war) you can hardly scream oh woe is me if those self same people shift to a party that shares this philosophy.

    Labor under Hawke and Keating and Beazley made a CONCIOUS choice to move to the right on some key issues – privatisation, immigration, uranium mining and police powers and terror laws and the war in Afghanistan. I am assuming they did this with the assumption that the left of the ALP had nowhere else to go. this backfired by the emergence of the Greens.

    You right wing ALP hacks made this bed, so bloody well lie in it. Stop wailing and saying that the mean greenies stole your toy. You left your toy in the rain and the Greens picked it up. You did not want the left in the ALP and systematically undermined every left wing value. So you got what you wanted. Stop wailing like bubbykins.

    Now I have stayed in the ALP but it gets harder and harder. I KNOW that my next branch meeting will be hard because of Adani inspired resignations.

    You lot just do not get it. Your RWNJ red necked xenophobia works OK in Western Sydney but is a total turn off in the inner city and leafy green areas. I grew up in the NSW ALP where the Balmin battle between the “Basket weavers” and the old dock workers ran rampant. Not much has changed but you have still failed to grasp the rea;lity that this is a culture war across which there is an almost insumountable barrier. Whitlam was able to hold it together, Hawke and Keating were not bad but having deliberately hived off the left it is becoming a serious problem.

  29. Greensborough Growler,

    BTW, how’d the air con perform over summer?

    Fantastic, thank you! In fact, we had it on as recently as last week and will probably have it on this week as we head for a 28C day tomorrow and 29C on Wednesday. It’s our Indian Summer in Sydney. It gets longer into Autumn each year. It’s otherwise known as Global Warming. 🙂

  30. Roy Morgan crediting the rise in lnp support to Turnbull’s cunning plan to discombobulate everyone (including his own treasurer) with daily policy flip flops. Oh dear lord.

  31. [2920
    ratsak

    DTT,

    I usually ignore your tripe because you’re a loon.

    As for (Danby) only getting 31% last time, that was almost all due to R-G-R. He’ll be back around the 38 he got in 2010 if not more and very likely first on prefs. Why? Because the Libs will be on the nose and particularly so in a seat like Melbourne Ports.]

    Voter expression will coalesce around the practicalities of changing the Government. Danby’s vote will likely run towards the 40’s…or even higher if things work out well for him. He will take PV’s from the G’s and the Libs. Excellent.

  32. Seems I was correct about the polls. Morgan at least. People are not quite prepared to abandon Malcolm just yet.

  34. [Roy Morgan crediting the rise in lnp support to Turnbull’s cunning plan to discombobulate everyone (including his own treasurer) with daily policy flip flops. Oh dear lord.]

    He probably makes cookies too. (Roy, not Malcolm)

  35. [ABC News
    1h1 hour ago
    ABC News ‏@abcnews
    #BREAKING: Australian security company @WilsonSecurity linked to Hong Kong corruption scandal, #PanamaPapers leak reveals]

  36. 2927
    daretotread

    I don’t mind the G’s. But they are a Labor-echo brand in the mind of those who vote for them. And the G-leadership deliberately position their Party as a boundary rider to Labor, hoping to lure the disaffected and the delusional, such as you. This has worked up to a point. But it will not work for them when the tide is running in favour of the election of a Labor Government, as is now the case in WA and, dare I say it, in the Federal election. At such times, Labor will attract votes from both the LNP and the G’s. So Labor success implies G-attrition. This is the logic of voting to eject Liberal Governments. It’s ineluctable.

  38. Hmmm. Just saw the Morgan result.
    Tears.
    If the shambles that the Turnbull Government has become has no effect on the polls, then we are stuffed.

    American society here we come.

  43. 2938
    Douglas and Milko

    Morgan recorded a huge shift in favour of Labor in its previous reading. It’s normal for shifts to partly reverse out from one data point to the next. What would have been unusual would have been a further pronounced move to Labor.

    Morgan is very bouncy….bouncier than voter opinion is actually likely to be. I would discount it and weigh it against other polls…polls still to be published.

  44. dtt,
    Balmain is the local area where my family came from. Stanmore too. I went to Fort Street High School in Petersham. These ‘leafy’ suburbs have been overrun by Academice, Actors and Lawyers. They are the Doctors’ Wives brigade and they vote Green because they can afford the luxury of a social conscience without the consequences. It seems you can too in your leafy Inner Brisbane suburb too.

    Labor will not be pandering to you or them anytime soon. Labor is a party of government for the people who live outside the leafy inner suburbs and if the people of the leafy inner suburbs have a real social conscience, as opposed to the faux sort they like to parade about with, then they will support the policies of a political party that cares about putting together policies which seek to support the Working and Middle Class and not just the petit bourgeoisie of the leafy inner suburbs who you get a fit of the vapours about every time someone seeks to criticise them and the party they have chosen to support, The Greens.

    Labor still has a robust Left Wing, and policies to suit them, and a Right Wing and a Centre. The Greens have feelpolicies and a strictly limited appeal that will never appeal to a broad swathe of the electorate outside the leafy inner suburbs and the trendy sea change locales.

  45. [The Shovel ‏@The_Shovel_ · 2m2 minutes ago

    Relief for authorities as Tony Abbott confirms he will directly confront Putin about money laundering allegations #auspol]

  47. DTT 2927

    Couldn’t have said it better. I fit in to the category myself of former Labor left, now a very proud and happy Green. It’s frankly laughable the way some Labor people here and more generally carry on. Their blind hatred of the Greens is a barrier to logic. Labor made a deliberate choice to move to the right from the 80s on, thumbing their noses at those with left wing values and beliefs. Well shock horror; myself and many like me eventually no longer felt that Labor represented our values and found another political home. But instead of addressing the cause, some in Labor squeal with a sense of entitlement to progressive votes. It’s actually quite laughable.

  48. briefly, 2936

    Polling does not show, either in WA or federally, a swing against the Greens from the last election.

  50. [2944
    C@tmomma

    Labor still has a robust Left Wing, and policies to suit them, and a Right Wing and a Centre. The Greens have feelpolicies]

    The Greens offer bait rather than policies. They want to catch voters rather than to serve them.

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