The Easter weekend has meant the only poll this week has been the usual weekly reading from Essential Research, which records a tie on two-party preferred for the fourth week in a row. Both major parties are steady on the primary vote – the Coalition on 43%, Labor on 38% – while the Greens are down a point to 9%. There is accordingly not much change on the surface of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which records a gentle move to the Coalition that yields nothing on the seat projection. However, there’s a lot going on under the BludgerTrack bonnet, as I’m now doing it in R rather than SAS/STAT, and relying a lot less on Excel to plug the gaps. Now that I’ve wrapped my head around R, I can probe a lot more deeply into the data with a lot less effort – commencing with the observation that the Coalition’s two-party vote would be around 0.5% higher if I was using a trend of respondent-allocated preference to determine the result, rather than 2013 election preferences. I’ve also done my regular quarterly BludgerTrack breakdowns, featuring state-level primary votes based on results from Morgan, Ipsos, Essential and ReachTEL, together with the breakdowns published this week by Newspoll.
Further polling:
• The Essential poll found 44% would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate blocked the Australian Building and Construction Commission bill, with disapproval at only 23%. Respondents also showed good sense when asked the main reason why Prime Minister might wish to do such a thing: 25% opted for clearing independents from the Senate, 30% for getting an election in before he loses further support, and only 14% for actually getting the ABCC restored. Other questions recorded an unsurprising weight of support for income tax cuts (62% more important, 61% better for the economy) over company tax cuts (16% and 19% respectively). Results for a series of questions on which party was best to manage various aspects of economic policy were also much as expected, though slightly more favourable to the Coalition than when the questions were last posed a few weeks before the 2014 budget. A semi-regular inquiry into the attributes of the Labor and Liberal parties allows an opportunity for comparison with a poll conducted in November, shortly before the recent improvement in Labor’s fortunes. Labor’s movements are perhaps a little surprising, with extreme up and moderate down, and “looks after the interests of working people” down as well. The Liberals are down vision, leadership and clarity, and up on division.
• The Herald-Sun has a report on ReachTEL poll commissioned by the progressive Australia Institute think tank in the regional Victorian seat of Indi, which Sophie Mirabella hopes to recover for the Liberals after her defeat by independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. The news is not good for Mirabella, with McGowan recording a lead on the primary vote of 37.3% to 26.9%, while the Nationals are a distant third on 10.6%. The report says a 56-44 two-candidate preferred result from the poll allocated all Nationals preferences to Mirabella, a decision that was perhaps made in ignorance of the level of support McGowan received from Nationals voters in 2013. The primary votes as reported would more likely pan out to around 60-40.
Preselection latest:
• Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports the Liberal preselection for the new Western Australian seat of Burt is a tight tussle between Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme, and Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor. Storer is supported by the state branch’s increasingly assertive Christian Right, and in particular by its leading powerbroker in Perth’s southern suburbs, state upper house MP Nick Goiran.
• The Weekly Times reports that Damian Drum, state upper house member for Northern Victoria region and one-time coach of the Fremantle Dockers AFL club, will nominate for Nationals preselection in the seat of Murray, following the weekend’s retirement announcement from Liberal incumbent Sharman Stone. The front-runner for Liberal preselection looks to be Donald McGauchie, former policy adviser to the then Victorian premier, Ted Baillieu.
can morrison add up?
can you use a spreadsheet?
accounts software?
what tertiary qualifications in anything remotely required for treasurer?
issue of qualification could be held against a lot of ministers one assume who act insecurely and substitute verbiage for knowledge – then again you wouldn’t trust turnbull as treasurer either … a hard rain on the democratic parade
K17, 2850
Next week, I thought.
Kenny just now:
[… news stories abound exposing the prevalence of tax minimisation measures employed by the super rich, and by big companies, all of which have left PAYG taxpayers feeling like mugs for their good faith.
The latest installment, the Panama Papers, has identified hundreds of thousands of wealthy international clients of the Panama legal firm Mossack Fonseca. Among the prominent individuals linked to creative tax avoidance are powerful world leaders and business heavyweights, and many Australians. The Australian Tax Office is investigating as many as 800 such individuals linked to the firm.
This follows last month’s admission by the ATO that of 321 companies with earnings over $200 million, 98 had not paid any company tax at all in 2013-14.
And on the weekend, Fairfax Media reported on work by the Melbourne Institute which shows the top 1 per cent of Australian earners had amassed 9 per cent of Australian income in 2013, more than double the rate of wealth concentration than was the case in the 1980s.
And remember, those in the top bracket with declared incomes greater than $180,001, will get more relief in 2017 when Joe Hockey’s temporary 2 per cent budget repair levy expires.
Nice work if you can avoid declaring it.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/malcolm-turnbulls-company-tax-cut-strikes-an-off-note-amid-abuse-revelations-by-rich-and-powerful-20160404-gnxmm7.html#ixzz44q0ibrgT ]
Surely Me Kenny knows that anyone criticising the use of tax havens and money laundering facilities is just jealous?
Class envy at its worst, I say.
If Malcolm Turnbull is rich enough to be able to afford the services of discreet, but expensive Cayman Island tax minimization banks, then we should celebrate his prowess, his elan, his panache, his decisiveness and just wish we were wealthy enough to bamboozle the taxman with offshore accounts.
While we are squabbling Malcolm has been governing.
While we have been sneering, Malcolm has been investing.
Agile. Innovative. Magnificent… Exciting times: Australia under The Sun King.
[51% and 48% don’t make up to 100%.]
I am pretty sure it adds up to eleventy.
kevjohnno
Thanks for that. It does seem dumb, and not a little bit petty.
bushfire 2853
more than good as always
take over from bob
Rupert Murdoch himself would have to be one of the Mossack Fonseca clients surely?
Actually I can’t wait for the American list to be released. I wonder if a certain Billionaire Presidential candidate for the Republican Party nomination is among them?
Airlines – Ta.
Simon Katich
Posted Monday, April 4, 2016 at 4:21 pm
[Shea
The ALP candidate for Grey in SA is a done deal.
More please?]
Nup.
Sorry.
Small hint – it won’t be a surprise.
[ C@tmomma
Posted Monday, April 4, 2016 at 5:07 pm | Permalink
Rupert Murdoch himself would have to be one of the Mossack Fonseca clients surely?
Actually I can’t wait for the American list to be released. I wonder if a certain Billionaire Presidential candidate for the Republican Party nomination is among them?
]
Actually I can’t wait for the Australian list to be released. I wonder if a certain Millionaire Liberal Party Leader is among them?
[2850
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
When’s the next newspoll? tonight?]
Next week.
Point well made by Bernard Keane:
[ When Turnbull railed at the states and their calls for a restoration of the $80 billion in funding cut from their health and education budgets as a “fantasy” invented by Julia Gillard, he insisted that Australians have to “live within your means”.
For a start, if the $80 billion in lost funding is a fantasy, if the “money was never there”, it’s peculiar that the government’s own budget overview in 2014-15 contained the statement:
“In this Budget the Government is adopting sensible indexation arrangements for schools from 2018, and hospitals from 2017-18, and removing funding guarantees for public hospitals. These measures will achieve cumulative savings of over $80 billion by 2024-25.”
If the lost funding is a fantasy, it’s a fantasy the Coalition believed in two years ago. ]
[CTar1
Farces are still a popular form of theatre in the UK.
‘Turnbull’ @ the Barbican Theatre would be a gold plated money making opportunity.
]
I’m thinking Punch and Judy on a deserted pier.
The OH still gets annoyed by Punch (Morrison), but I find him amusing. I can’t help playing bullshit-bingo whenever I hear him. See how many sentences he can go without “Gillard, tax and spend, Labor, Shorten, beyond our means”. He spends his whole time slagging off Labor, but because it comes from someone with no economic authority, it’s just kind of sad and funny.
I also heard him say “moving forward” on AM this morning…
[ briefly
Posted Monday, April 4, 2016 at 5:10 pm | Permalink
2850
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
When’s the next newspoll? tonight?
Next week.
]
Rupert is still honeymooning with Jerry – newspoll is still awaiting his numbers that he wishes posted
Gee …. he’s an old guy – it takes him all night to do what you do all night …. give the old guy a break – he’ll eventually wake up to the fact that democracy needs some focus and he’ll get back to us patiently awaiting his newspoll summation of what’s on his mind – Malcolm – thumbs UP or DOWN ?????
2818
phoenixRED
Danby is making a pointed statement. The G’s have relied on and profited from Labor prefs all the way down the line. They want to have their cake and eat it as far as Labor is concerned – to be able to compete against them one day and dine on their prefs the next. The G’s do not have a lien on the prefs of Labor voters. If the G’s want Labor prefs they should show what they’re prepared to do in return. They should not make the mistake of taking them for granted.
gt @ 2812
[However thats not the point. The point is Labor people here were all how dare the Greens put the LNP before Labor. ]
I wasn’t.
Danby needs Greens preferences to retain Melbourne Ports though.
I think it would be interesting to see Melbourne Ports with each of the 3 parties running open tickets.
The phone box party is splitting even further. Greens in disarray all over the country.
There’s a whiff of Democrat Demise around!
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/tas-greens-split-to-add-political-party/news-story/62f1c97177fef8a4b50993786af62abc
Airlines
[When’s the next newspoll? tonight?]
K17’s just asked what some smart bugger declared in the dark hours to be the ‘classic’ question for here.
“are we there yet” 😆
[2857
C@tmomma
Actually I can’t wait for the American list to be released.]
I know one name that won’t be on the list… no matter how hard I might try, I’ll never qualify 🙂
Briefly that might make sense if the Greens profited in anyway from Danby’s preferences but they don’t. Danby profits from Green preferences so the pointed statement points to Danby’s foot.
@briefly
The cute thing about that is that Danby himself relies on Green prefs to win, and that Greens keep on preferencing him in Melbourne Ports despite it all.
If that really is his point as you say, then it is self-defeating.
Baghdad Briefly, it’s no use polishing this turd of a decision by Michael Danby. He deserves the same fate as Dennis Jensen.
If the G-leaning voters of Melbourne Ports were directed to pref the Libs their vote would collapse.
[ briefly
Posted Monday, April 4, 2016 at 5:18 pm | Permalink
2818
phoenixRED
Danby is making a pointed statement. The G’s have relied on and profited from Labor prefs all the way down the line. They want to have their cake and eat it as far as Labor is concerned – to be able to compete against them one day and dine on their prefs the next. The G’s do not have a lien on the prefs of Labor voters. If the G’s want Labor prefs they should show what they’re prepared to do in return. They should not make the mistake of taking them for granted.
]
I say again – BOTH sides need to take a cold shower and THINK !!!
WHO is it that we need to defeat ??? ….. WHO is the enemy ????
Is it the LNP … or each other ?????
Whatever I have read on Danby – he is against everything ….. but what He believes ….. he seems very fixed in his beliefs …
Strength through UNITY ….
Its Malcolm or Bill …. decide at your own peril ….
Question
[I can’t help playing bullshit-bingo]
😆
I was really tempted once to take an A4 version to a meeting with IT persons.
I just yelled a lot instead.
Let’s see how G-voters might respond if they were generally directed to pref the Libs. They would lose most of their PV. They would lose most of their Senators and any lower house seats would be at risk as well.
The G’s are a Labor echo. If they tried to turn themselves into a Liberal echo they would almost instantly vanish.
2875
phoenixRED
The day the G’s stop attacking Labor and start trying to shave votes form the Libs is the day this kind of appeal can be taken seriously.
This sums up the Brissenden/Morrison interview very nicely.
[After a long amble around tax reform, with a brief rest-stop at new federalism, we are back to the Abbott-era absurdity that Australia does not have a revenue problem. There is also a near meaningless formulation that Australia just has to live within its means.
On the ABC on Monday morning, journalist Michael Brissenden attempted to cut through the vacuousness of the formulation by pointing out that taken to its logical extent, we would not borrow for infrastructure, we would not build for the future, we would not allow students to borrow money to fund their education. What does this living within your means concept actually mean?
The treasurer said he believed Australian households knew exactly what living within your means meant. “It means you manage your finances responsibly, it means if you do need to spend extra money then you find savings.”
This explanation is just a whisker away from suggesting Australian households don’t borrow, or seek supplementary income, in order to provision productively for their future – which is an absurdity, and one really unworthy of an occupant of the treasury portfolio.]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/04/malcolm-turnbull-promised-us-serious-but-were-getting-soap-opera
briefly, 2878
Much like how they won the state seats of Prahran and Ballina?
I am guessing PVO thinks it is a big fat joke. 😀
[Peter van Onselen
2h2 hours ago
Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
It’s a risk leaving the Sky News centre to pick up the kids, in case we go to rolling coverage on Kevin Andrews challenging the PM]
So, basically, what Bernard is saying is that Turnbull and Morrison are trying on a prestidigitation trick. They are trying to get to have people believe that the $80Billion never existed except in the fevered imagination of that woman Prime Minister (the underlying sexism in that attitude is only to be expected from the Liberal Party).
Come out today with a full court press of the meme, sprinkle some Woofle Dust on the $80B and poof! it’s gone!
The venality of the Liberal Party never ceases to amaze. Nor their continued contempt for the electorate and the media as evidenced by this attempted sleight of hand with $80Billion.
nappin
Nobody likes a smart arse! 😆
2880
Airlines
If the G’s can win seats from the Libs, good for them. To have harmonious relations with Labor, they should stop trying to displace Labor MP’s. Until this happens, they will be placing themselves in the same position as the LNP with respect to Labor…they will be presenting themselves as opponents. It stands to reason that Labor will make this clear to its own supporters.
went off to do some painting after throwing my last grenade.
Guytaur leave your claim to facts about things you haven’t the first idea about (including and especially what gets me angry) out of it old son. It just makes you look stupid.
I am completely comfortable about Labor preferencing the Libs over the Greens, or any old ratbag right party you care to name POSS.
In fact I’ve handed out numerous HTVs for Labor that have done exactly that in the past. In reasonably safe seats or even seats where Labor probably won’t win but have no chance of coming third it has been common to have a HTV with a 1 next to the Labor candidate and then 2,3,4 down the page and then continuing on from the top as required till all boxes are numbered.
Labor does this for the very simple reason that their prefs are never going to be distributed and by making it as simple as possible for their voters they decrease the chance of a voter accidentally spoiling their vote with a preference mix up.
Beazley and Labor made a big song and dance about putting One Nation last back in 98, but that was a purely political decision trying to embarrass Howard into doing the same and so reducing the flow of prefs back to the Coalition (a tactic with some success).
Otherwise unless Labor has a good chance of coming third or worse in an electorate I and no one else supporting Labor could give a flying continental about what numbers go on a Labor HTV in a lower house election. It is very different for the Greens because they are almost always third or lower. Their prefs matter because they get distributed. I the Greens want to play silly buggers and help the Libs into power that’s their business, but it comes with consequences they might not like.
Briefly
One of your sillier comments.
In MP Danby needs a whopping 75% of preferences to get over the line. Last time he polled just 31.7%. He has set out to alientate the Greens for ideological reasons.
Now I imagine the response from the Greens will be to issue an open ticket. The real issue for Danby is publicity of this deal because it might just energise the green base and also cause a significant whack of green voters to choose not to preference him.
Not sure what effect it will have on Labor voters, however in that seat I imagine only a few old timers follow the HTV. Danby is wahcko for announcing his decision with such fanfare. Does he actually WANT to lose? With just 31.7% of the vote he is no local hero.
CTar1
I’m sure if I kept refreshing this page “innovation” and “agile” would come up. I think Turnbull goes here to get his terminology for the day.
http://www.bullshitbingo.net/cards/bullshit/
[2880
Airlines
briefly, 2878
Much like how they won the state seats of Prahran and Ballina?]
I guess this qualifies the G’s to think of themselves as independent Libs.
[ briefly
Posted Monday, April 4, 2016 at 5:30 pm | Permalink
2875
phoenixRED
The day the G’s stop attacking Labor and start trying to shave votes form the Libs is the day this kind of appeal can be taken seriously.
]
.. and reading posts daily on this site – its a 2 way street ….or are you so one-eyed you don’t see it ??????
I say again – BOTH sides need to take a cold shower and THINK !!!
WHO is it that we need to defeat ??? ….. WHO is the enemy ????
Is it the LNP … or EACH OTHER ?????
Strength through UNITY ….disunity is DEATH
Do you want more of Malcolm or do you want Bill ???? …. decide at your own peril … and if you make the wrong decision we face more years of LNP ruling our lives and our emotions – THAT’s the bottom line !
briefly,
No Knowledge Nick is fretting. How touching it is that as he sinks further in to his putrid swamp of inanity he tries to keep his head above water he cries out to Labor not to make waves.
Question
[I also heard him say “moving forward” on AM this morning…]
Additional comment, I know, but Morrison can’t even get “Moving Forward” right.
It certainly should be a lazy “movin’ for-ward”.
[When’s the next newspoll? tonight?]
Yes.
2889
phoenixRED
Again I say, the G’s are schismatic. They represent a consciously-made divide in anti-LNP ranks. Their methods serve the interests of the LNP. We see that again and again.
Just thinking about that tweet from PVO. I wont forget the look on his face together with Kroger and other. Sky panellists when the QLD state election results started to show a very tight finish.
Priceless!!
briefly, 2888
So the Greens are damned if they target Labor seats (because they are damaging progressive politics!!!!) and damned if they target Coalition seats (because then they’re obviously just the Coalition in disguise).
Ratsak
Jeepers where do you ALP RWNJ get off.
if you have EVER handed out HTVs in recent yuears you will notice that huge numbers of voters under 40 refuse to take HTV. I think you could pretty much match these voters to the green vote.
By and large green voters ignore the HTV if they take one at all.
The problem for Danby is going to be the bad publicity – starting here. Precisely because labor made a fuss about Green LNP preference deals, Danby’s decsion will get much more air time. Greens votersmay choose not to support him. Given that Danby needs a HUGE share of preferences to win the seat, his behaviour seems self destructive. If only 1/3 greens voters decide to preference the libs ahead of Danby in retaliation, danby would lose the seat. If the greens actually target the seat with a high profile campaing who knows what might happen.
[When’s the next newspoll? tonight?
Yes.]
Are you just saying that Oh Lord because you know the inmates in the asylum get narky without fresh polls?
DTT,
Can I suggest you know sfa about Labor in Victoria.
You’ve always been painfully long on analysis, but short of actually understanding politics.
The Greens are a scourge. Heroes like Michael Danby are leading the charge to rid us of these Greens pestilence. More power to his arm is what I say.
Someone who should know tells me there will indeed be a Newspoll tonight. Morgan’s latest result will also be up very shortly.
2890
Greensborough Growler
N knows the G’s have run out of growth momentum. As voter opinion coalesces around the idea of changing the Government, Labor’s appeal will wax. This will be at the expense of all Labor’s rivals, including the G’s. So what does N do? Try to insult and deride Labor. It won’t work. All it does is persuade Labor voters that their opponents include both the G’s and the LNP.
One day the G’s will figure it out. The best way for them to prosper is to cease insulting Labor and its supporters. N may never work this out…but others will.