The Easter weekend has meant the only poll this week has been the usual weekly reading from Essential Research, which records a tie on two-party preferred for the fourth week in a row. Both major parties are steady on the primary vote – the Coalition on 43%, Labor on 38% – while the Greens are down a point to 9%. There is accordingly not much change on the surface of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which records a gentle move to the Coalition that yields nothing on the seat projection. However, there’s a lot going on under the BludgerTrack bonnet, as I’m now doing it in R rather than SAS/STAT, and relying a lot less on Excel to plug the gaps. Now that I’ve wrapped my head around R, I can probe a lot more deeply into the data with a lot less effort – commencing with the observation that the Coalition’s two-party vote would be around 0.5% higher if I was using a trend of respondent-allocated preference to determine the result, rather than 2013 election preferences. I’ve also done my regular quarterly BludgerTrack breakdowns, featuring state-level primary votes based on results from Morgan, Ipsos, Essential and ReachTEL, together with the breakdowns published this week by Newspoll.
Further polling:
• The Essential poll found 44% would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate blocked the Australian Building and Construction Commission bill, with disapproval at only 23%. Respondents also showed good sense when asked the main reason why Prime Minister might wish to do such a thing: 25% opted for clearing independents from the Senate, 30% for getting an election in before he loses further support, and only 14% for actually getting the ABCC restored. Other questions recorded an unsurprising weight of support for income tax cuts (62% more important, 61% better for the economy) over company tax cuts (16% and 19% respectively). Results for a series of questions on which party was best to manage various aspects of economic policy were also much as expected, though slightly more favourable to the Coalition than when the questions were last posed a few weeks before the 2014 budget. A semi-regular inquiry into the attributes of the Labor and Liberal parties allows an opportunity for comparison with a poll conducted in November, shortly before the recent improvement in Labor’s fortunes. Labor’s movements are perhaps a little surprising, with extreme up and moderate down, and “looks after the interests of working people” down as well. The Liberals are down vision, leadership and clarity, and up on division.
• The Herald-Sun has a report on ReachTEL poll commissioned by the progressive Australia Institute think tank in the regional Victorian seat of Indi, which Sophie Mirabella hopes to recover for the Liberals after her defeat by independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. The news is not good for Mirabella, with McGowan recording a lead on the primary vote of 37.3% to 26.9%, while the Nationals are a distant third on 10.6%. The report says a 56-44 two-candidate preferred result from the poll allocated all Nationals preferences to Mirabella, a decision that was perhaps made in ignorance of the level of support McGowan received from Nationals voters in 2013. The primary votes as reported would more likely pan out to around 60-40.
Preselection latest:
• Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports the Liberal preselection for the new Western Australian seat of Burt is a tight tussle between Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme, and Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor. Storer is supported by the state branch’s increasingly assertive Christian Right, and in particular by its leading powerbroker in Perth’s southern suburbs, state upper house MP Nick Goiran.
• The Weekly Times reports that Damian Drum, state upper house member for Northern Victoria region and one-time coach of the Fremantle Dockers AFL club, will nominate for Nationals preselection in the seat of Murray, following the weekend’s retirement announcement from Liberal incumbent Sharman Stone. The front-runner for Liberal preselection looks to be Donald McGauchie, former policy adviser to the then Victorian premier, Ted Baillieu.
guytaur,
When Di Natalie was squirming about in a mess about the greens preferencing Libs instead of labor in Victoria he stated that their would be no formal agreement but any decision on preferences would be up to individual branches.
Seeing how you and others are jumping up and down about Danby I assume you will also direct your anger at any greens branch that does the same as Danby ?
Cheers.
😆 .. 😆
Immediately after my 2792, my internet connection dropped out.
So presumably ratsak would be fine with Labor preferencing Rise Up Australia or One Nation above the Greens, because the content of a HTV is irrelevant if it’s not going to be useful past the 1 vote.
Another thought on Danby: What happens if the Libs preference the Greens ahead of Labor?
ratsak
The FACT you hate is that Labor is telling voters to vote Liberal before the Greens.
You lot spent days going Greens grubby deal on the rumour of such a deal. Now we see an actual deal by Labor doing exactly what they accused the Greens of doing on what remains so far a rumour.
Danby is not fighting Tories.
[I assume you will also direct your anger at any greens branch that does the same as Danby ?]
I can’t speak for guytaur but I sure would.
It would be nice if the greens added a bit of transparency to their tax policy by publishing it in detail on the internet.
Labor in SA is in no rush to preselect its last lot of candidates, and thereby to broaden its Senate campaign, if this message today is any criterion:
[This morning the State Executive of the Labor Party opened preselections for the following positions. •Senate positions 1 and 2 in a general half Senate election.
•Sturt
•Barker
•Grey
•Mayo
Nominations for the Senate and Sturt close at 4pm on April 19th. Nominations for Barker, Grey and Mayo are open until a subsequent meeting of the State Executive.
If you have an interest in nominating, please contact Party Office on 8418 6700 to discuss, and to obtain the required nomination forms.]
[ lizzie
Posted Monday, April 4, 2016 at 4:03 pm | Permalink
😆 .. 😆
Immediately after my 2792, my internet connection dropped out.
]
Maybe Guytaur used the *magic button* on his Apple ?????
Further to my post at @2801 to clarify
My last paragraph should have read
I assume you and others will also direct your anger at any greens branch that directs its preferences to the Libs ahead of labor in the upcoming federal election.
Cheers.
president @2806,
Good to see.
I assume that would also include National Party candidates.
Cheers.
Doyley
I think the Greens would be playing by the rules of the game just as badly as Labor if they did so.
However thats not the point. The point is Labor people here were all how dare the Greens put the LNP before Labor. Well Danby has proven that Labor does it.
Therefore Labor cannot castigate the Greens for doing exactly the same. No moral high ground.
Grubby ALP deal with the Tories?
Liberals on Trams?
[Mr Danby told Sky News this afternoon that “I, as in the last election, have determined that in my seat that I will be preferencing the Liberals ahead of the Green Party.”]
http://greens.org.au/news/vic/shorten-must-rule-out-labor-liberal-preference-deal
Seriously this is bullshit. If you want to LOSE TO THE TORIES, do what this idiot Danby is doing.
guytaur @2805,
So, on your argument any greens branch that decided to preference a liberal or national party candidate ahead of labor would also incur your wrath ?
Cheers.
Re 2808:
Sturt and Mayo are Liberal seats said to be under some threat, if not from Labor then from X candidates.
Grey was a Labor seat until recent times.
The ALP candidate for Grey in SA is a done deal.
Doyley
Thats not my argument. My argument is Labor has no moral high ground here and should never have opened their mouths on the subject.
Labor has proven already it puts the Liberals ahead of the Greens. This is now fact no if or buts about it. No way for Labor people to lecture Greens people on Greens preference deals now.
[ lefty e
Posted Monday, April 4, 2016 at 4:10 pm | Permalink
Grubby ALP deal with the Tories?
Liberals on Trams?
Mr Danby told Sky News this afternoon that “I, as in the last election, have determined that in my seat that I will be preferencing the Liberals ahead of the Green Party.”
http://greens.org.au/news/vic/shorten-must-rule-out-labor-liberal-preference-deal
Seriously this is bullshit. If you want to LOSE TO THE TORIES, do what this idiot Danby is doing.
]
I agree lefty e – I agree with you – Danby needs a touch of the Jensens …. its the old saying – the enemy of my enemy is my friend and whatever ‘differences’ surely – the common L/G enemy is the LNP to us Labourites ….
guytaur @2812,
Sorry, but that is exactly the point.
Di Natalie has stated more than once that any decision to preference the Libs ahead of labor would be a individual branch decision.
So any greens branch that does a preference deal of any sort with a liberal or national candidate would, based on your argument, not be fighting Tories and should be loudly condemned ?
Cheers.
Josh Taylor @joshgnosis 1m1 minute ago
On Liberal candidate profiles, the PM sits in front of the candidate.
Doyley
Sorry but that is exactly the red herring you wish to insert to excuse looking at fact.
Fact: Labor castigated Greens for putting Liberals ahead of Labor on a rumour.
Fact: Labor putting Liberals ahead of Greens based on what an MP has said on Sky News.
Thats the facts. No moral lecturing from the ALP on preference deals now.
A more detailed story on the starving horses. The man was apparently ‘known to the RSPCA’, which is why they would not go on to the property without police protection.
[Bruce Akers, 63, is understood to have represented Australia as a wrestler at the 1972 and 1976 Olympic Games, and had been registered as a horse trainer, who last raced horses in 2011.
He competed as a welterweight in Munich and Montreal.]
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/man-arrested-over-death-of-22-horses-at-bulla-property-20160403-gnxfu6.html
guytaur @2817,
So, if the greens do reference against labor then they are just as bad as labor and should be condemned ?
You cannot have it both ways.
Either they are as bad as each other or else you are talking bullshit.
Cheers.
Doyley
You are the one talking bullshit. Anything to avoid looking at what your party is actually doing rather than what some Greens might do in the future.
Even if they did Labor cannot castigate any Green who does what they do.
Shea
[The ALP candidate for Grey in SA is a done deal.]
More please?
stop preferencing whatever it is worth anyway – leave open tickets
CFMEUWA: What would get to the bottom of the Panama Harbor scandal more ? ABCC or FED ICAC? #CFMEU #auspol #alpolitics https://t.co/XaRDG47CHQ
i hate all the green name calling – for HS they claim to stand of high principles – and am fed up with their constant bad naming labor … agenda is: destroy labor at whatever cost, greens to be opposition and then !!! this is grand delusion: greens at best have minority special interest mandate – they are not a coherent fully articulated party and transparent ideology at all and would fall apart put to a test of power …
Dutton raises clouds of obfuscation whenever he “explains”.
I don’t trust a word he says.
[Pressed by the ABC’s Fran Kelly on what resettlement options refugees on Nauru and Manus Island had, Mr Dutton said those on Nauru were being offered Cambodia.
Fairfax Media reported on Monday that Cambodia’s top government spokesman has described the resettlement agreement as a failure and asserted his country does not have the social programs to support those transferred.
Three of the five refugees transferred from Nauru to Cambodia under the deal have gone back to their countries of origin and the two remaining in Phnom Phen are deeply unhappy and want to leave.
Mr Dutton denied that Australia had spent more than $50 million on the Cambodian deal and blamed refugee advocates for convincing refugees who were interested in resettlement in Phnom Phen not to take up the offer. He could no offer an “exact figure” on how much had been spent.
Mr Dutton also played down tensions with the Manus Island detention centre over plans to separate more than 900 detainees according to their refugee status in preparation for moving those with refugee status in the community.
He said people were refusing to leave the detention centre “for whatever reason”. Detainees say they are refusing to leave because they fear for their safety and ability to provide for themselves in Papua New Guinea. At least one of the few who has been released into the community returned to Manus Island last week insisting he was not safe in Lae.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-dutton-vows-children-released-from-detention-are-still-bound-for-nauru-20160404-gnxklk.html
ie green have had and continue to have important role but as a third fourth or fifth party …. i think personally there time was up in 2009, then 2012, in 2013, then again this year … at least stretch my own loyalty
[ Thats the facts. No moral lecturing from the ALP on preference deals now. ]
Danby is doing exactly what the Greens said they would do. So neither the ALP nor the Greens can lay claim to any “moral high ground” on this issue.
Where is Morgan?
How many more weeks will this “posting too fast” continue? 😛
Even this one got the treatment.
You are posting comments too quickly. Slow down.
From a “footy outsider’s” point of view, I find AFL much more interesting / entertaining than Soccer. I am puzzled at Soccer’s international popularity. AFL is fast-paced and high-scoring, the best team always wins except in very close games, it seems to require varied and complex skills (like ‘shirt-fronting’) and players use their hands and feet. If it found a very wealthy fan who wanted to sponsor its international expansion, it might take on in some places.
In Soccer on the other hand, they grind away for 90 minutes for a score of 1-0 or often 0-0, with results often being decided by luck, sometimes by milked penalties. And they have this silly rule that you can’t use your hands. I am sure that the reason for so many Soccer riots must be extreme frustration.
The only code I am familiar with is Rugby League. It’s impossible to grow up and live in Sydney without acquiring some familiarity with the game.
[ Question
Posted Monday, April 4, 2016 at 4:27 pm | Permalink
Where is Morgan?
]
the pollster …. or the pirate ? 😉
whatever – it better be 51-48 Labour’s way … or else …
These are the lower house, single member seats that the Greens currently control somewhere in the nation:
Ballina (NSW) – gain off NAT
Balmain (NSW) – gain off ALP (with a GRN-LIB 2PP)
Melbourne (federal) – gain off ALP
Melbourne (VIC) – gain off ALP
Newtown (NSW) – seat created notionally GRN
Prahran (VIC) – gain off LIB
This splits 3:2:1 ALP-Coalition-Green. The Greens have won seats off the Coalition before and will do it again, and have won seats (Prahran) off the Coalition which Labor would not have, had the Greens not been around. I’m not sure how winning 1/3 of your seats off a Coalition member somehow means you’re not targetting the Coalition at all.
Additionally, referring solely to the upcoming federal election, the Greens are putting a lot of effot into their campaigns in Higgins and most likely in Brisbane as well (both Coalition seats, one of which Labor has never won).
PR,
It’s the pirate of the polls, very reactionary! (And it will now prove me wrong by not moving)
player one
it is greens that claim high ground – and green that apparently started this furore about preferencing this election – no longer first im afraid
[Dan Gulberry
Posted Monday, April 4, 2016 at 4:04 pm | Permalink
Another thought on Danby: What happens if the Libs preference the Greens ahead of Labor?]
That is very unlikely to make any difference Dan. The libs have got around 40% to the Greens 20% at the last couple of elections It would take a massive swing away from the Libs to have them come third and have their preferences distributed.
It is also unlikely that Danby’s preferences will get distributed so Danby might see this as a token swipe at the Green with no real effect.
This still seems to me like a particularly stupid move on Danby’s part though and the ALP’s power brokers not to prevent it. Danby relies on the Green preferences to get elected and last election got about 87% of them. Why try and alienate a group of voters who you rely on to get you over the line this way. Best case it make no difference to your chances but worst case is that enough green voters are persuaded to retaliate and you fall just short. A move with no upside and plenty of downside. Dumb.
phoenixRED
[whatever – it better be 51-48 Labour’s way … or else …]
51% and 48% don’t make up to 100%.
[ Decisions, decisions. Maybe he’ll try a distraction? I know! States charging income tax! oh…. ]
Yes rat. har fwarking har its a great joke but its nowhere near governance.
The problem is that they have already gone in well past the event horizon of peak policy and political stupid with their, apparently, serious suggestions to date….so where to from here is anyones guess??
They have ruled so much out, and now corporate tax cuts are looking toxic as well.
Maybe they will “go households” and do a $900 cheque for all as an economic growth stimulus? 🙂
If they are going to do distraction then maybe dumping prominent ministers for electoral funding corruption or #leadershit led by Andrews is actually their best option??
SK
[I reckon I could annoy you.]
You already are, but that’s no claim to fame.
My OH constantly delights, amuses and annoys the f#ck out of me. It’s a winning combination.
I really need the girl to get her butt on a plane out of Nice.
That’ll bring me down to Earth i.e. GRUMPY.
Even when there was all the hyperventilation on here about what the Greens may do with preferences, the talk was not of the Greens directly preferencing the Liberals over Labor, but rather running open tickets. This is something the Greens do regularly anyway, and the talk was that the Greens may extend this to some marginal seats. But here, we have an example of a Labor member preferencing the Liberals ahead of the Greens. Oh where is the outrage? Crickets.
If the ALP candidate for Grey is a ‘done deal’, he/she should be hoofing it around the bloody big electorate to drum up Senate votes. Should have happened yonks ago. Same in Sturt, Mayo and even Barker.
Ratsak
I think you may not be alert for problems. Any seat where the Greens are polling in excess of 20% has to be partly at risk for Labor.
Loking at 2013 data once you eleimiate all the minors the result would pan out at something like
ALP 33%, Liberal, 43% and Greens 24%. Labor needs to get 17/24 (almost 75%) of greens preferences to be in the race. should Greens return tit for tat ie preference against Danby, he might be in trouble.
To make matters more complex, assume there is a small but significant swing from Greens to labor – highly likely. Let us say 2%. At the same time there is a 5% swing against the liberals of which 2% goes to Labor and 3% to the greens – again highly likely if the Turnbull gloss washes off completely.
You then have a situation where the balance is ALP 33%, Liberal 38% and Greens 29%. It is starting to narrow a lot. If the swing were 3% Labor to Greens (this is what happened recent;ly ion Qld, so do not assume it cannot happen), and at the SAME time a big swing against the Turnbull governent then you might well have ALP 32% Greens 32% Liberals 36%. It then is touch and go. Danby could deliver the Liberals the seat.
[
51% and 48% don’t make up to 100%
]
Give PR a break. Morrison has been in the news a lot today.
CTar1
tell me when to stop.
[ MTBW
Posted Monday, April 4, 2016 at 4:36 pm | Permalink
phoenixRED
whatever – it better be 51-48 Labour’s way … or else …
51% and 48% don’t make up to 100%.
]
In the Scott Morrison/ Mathias Terminator Maths 101 Text Book —— just as long as our rich mates, Arfur Seenodonors, Pamama Papers and the IPA are cooking with gas – – who gives a flying F*** – we can buy whatever it takes to poll whatever we want and if Rupert can get out of the sack with Jerry he’ll tell them dipshits who write the shit for his rags to put up whatever figures suit his purpose …. and William Bowe will be looking at the poll results, scratching his head and saying ‘WTF” ?????
Question
[Same here. Surely Turnbull has had it when it becomes such a giggle?]
Yep.
Farces are still a popular form of theatre in the UK.
‘Turnbull’ @ the Barbican Theatre would be a gold plated money making opportunity.
When’s the next newspoll? tonight?