The Easter weekend has meant the only poll this week has been the usual weekly reading from Essential Research, which records a tie on two-party preferred for the fourth week in a row. Both major parties are steady on the primary vote – the Coalition on 43%, Labor on 38% – while the Greens are down a point to 9%. There is accordingly not much change on the surface of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which records a gentle move to the Coalition that yields nothing on the seat projection. However, there’s a lot going on under the BludgerTrack bonnet, as I’m now doing it in R rather than SAS/STAT, and relying a lot less on Excel to plug the gaps. Now that I’ve wrapped my head around R, I can probe a lot more deeply into the data with a lot less effort – commencing with the observation that the Coalition’s two-party vote would be around 0.5% higher if I was using a trend of respondent-allocated preference to determine the result, rather than 2013 election preferences. I’ve also done my regular quarterly BludgerTrack breakdowns, featuring state-level primary votes based on results from Morgan, Ipsos, Essential and ReachTEL, together with the breakdowns published this week by Newspoll.
Further polling:
• The Essential poll found 44% would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate blocked the Australian Building and Construction Commission bill, with disapproval at only 23%. Respondents also showed good sense when asked the main reason why Prime Minister might wish to do such a thing: 25% opted for clearing independents from the Senate, 30% for getting an election in before he loses further support, and only 14% for actually getting the ABCC restored. Other questions recorded an unsurprising weight of support for income tax cuts (62% more important, 61% better for the economy) over company tax cuts (16% and 19% respectively). Results for a series of questions on which party was best to manage various aspects of economic policy were also much as expected, though slightly more favourable to the Coalition than when the questions were last posed a few weeks before the 2014 budget. A semi-regular inquiry into the attributes of the Labor and Liberal parties allows an opportunity for comparison with a poll conducted in November, shortly before the recent improvement in Labor’s fortunes. Labor’s movements are perhaps a little surprising, with extreme up and moderate down, and “looks after the interests of working people” down as well. The Liberals are down vision, leadership and clarity, and up on division.
• The Herald-Sun has a report on ReachTEL poll commissioned by the progressive Australia Institute think tank in the regional Victorian seat of Indi, which Sophie Mirabella hopes to recover for the Liberals after her defeat by independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. The news is not good for Mirabella, with McGowan recording a lead on the primary vote of 37.3% to 26.9%, while the Nationals are a distant third on 10.6%. The report says a 56-44 two-candidate preferred result from the poll allocated all Nationals preferences to Mirabella, a decision that was perhaps made in ignorance of the level of support McGowan received from Nationals voters in 2013. The primary votes as reported would more likely pan out to around 60-40.
Preselection latest:
• Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports the Liberal preselection for the new Western Australian seat of Burt is a tight tussle between Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme, and Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor. Storer is supported by the state branch’s increasingly assertive Christian Right, and in particular by its leading powerbroker in Perth’s southern suburbs, state upper house MP Nick Goiran.
• The Weekly Times reports that Damian Drum, state upper house member for Northern Victoria region and one-time coach of the Fremantle Dockers AFL club, will nominate for Nationals preselection in the seat of Murray, following the weekend’s retirement announcement from Liberal incumbent Sharman Stone. The front-runner for Liberal preselection looks to be Donald McGauchie, former policy adviser to the then Victorian premier, Ted Baillieu.
GG
Politics.
Morgan jumping all over the place. It appears to have overstated the Coalition since Turnbull, so maybe the result two weeks ago was an outlier for them. Either way, I personally don’t take a whole lot of notice of it and will wait for Newspoll.
matt31,
Have you gone?
I just hope the flyscreen door didn’t hit you on the arse as you walked out the door.
This bloody ‘wait your turn’ nonsense means that a quick response is separated from the question, especially at the top of a page. I’m sick of it.
Briefly@2943,
Thanks 🙂
Too busy to follow things closely enough at the moment!
Oh FFS a reasonably reputable poll needs to be released so that the ALP / Greens warriors can give it a bloody rest, and do the remainder of us a favour.
I do love being called a RWNJ for my life long support for:
– universal health care,
– universal public education,
– progressive taxation,
– anti-discrimination and investment to assist women and minorities get a fair crack at the fair go,
– a reasonable welfare system to support those who aren’t enjoying the material benefits the majority does,
– rigorous environmental standards,
– a legitimate role for unions to counterbalance the power of capital in the workplace,
– a mixed economy with a strong role for government to set oversight and regulation in the market and to take direct ownership roles in areas of natural monopoly,
– a strong belief in government having next to no role in regulating the behaviour of consenting adults in who they take to bed, marry etc
– government having a strong interventionist and redistributive role to ensure the economy is not grown for it’s own sake and that wealth is not concentrated but that economy is simply on of numerous tools we use to increase human happiness and spread it as widely as possible.
Damn I’m so RWNJ me and Tony are planning on going for a surf just as soon as we finish this bike ride.
2947
matt31
You’re very welcome to dwell with the G’s. So far so good. The thing is, there are only so many who will be romanced by G-serenades. Most have chosen to remain attached to Labor. Right now they hope that Labor can displace the Liberals. The energy for this is very easy to find in Perth. I’ve yet to find a single voter that hopes the G’s will form the next State or Federal Government.
ratsak
You are an offensive ignorant fool. HOW DARE you make comments about that which you know nothing re the electricuty bills of IGAs. I never ever quoted figures as high as you suggesated. You just did not understand it.
I assure you that many (I could give you names but that would breach confidence) use in excess of 100,000 KW per year. If we take an IGA using 99,999 KWH/yr at $0.25 c/KWH, this is a bill of $25,000 per year. The carbon tax for those businesses would come in at 10% or about $2,500 pa. So yes they get a 10% increase as per all the literature.
But you ignoramus at least here in Qld those using 100,001 KWH/yr mpostly have opted for a contract which in theory made their electricity costs much cheaper – say 5c/KWH plus a Network charge that roughtly double the cost, which while it was a struggle for many was a net cost of just $10,000 per year. The problem with the carbon tax was that it was set at 2c/KWH. So rather than a less than 10% increase in cost – from 2.5 c to 2.7 c/KWH, the cost for many was am increase from 10c to 12 c/kwh, which is you, silly laddie a 20% increase. For some it was more significant still. Translated into $ for an IGA (usually a lot of refrigerators and large air conditioners) you are looking at $2-3,000 per year or $500 per month. If the business is operating with one owner and partner, plus some part time staff it is a real cut in income of $500 per month for the owner – $125 per week. No self respecting unionist would tolerate such a cut. For those with high turnover it may be a drop in the bucket, but for many I saw it was make or break.
The better the so called “contract deal” they thought they had won, the more severe the financial impact of the CT. Sadly it was often those businesses that were struggling that had chosen contracts that seemed to offer good deals but were hurt most by the CT.
Do you grasp this now. Perhaps you should track down your primary school teacher for some remedial arithmatic.
[2941
Phylactella
It was the failure of labor leadership to take such issues seriously that pushed people to the Greens
Franklin dam issue one honourable exception.]
Really? It has been Labor that has acted to protect the environment every time over the last 50 years.
It was the Whitlam Government that created the Great Barrier Reef National Park and signed Australia up to the World Heritage Convention.
It was Hawke who saved the Franklin, and who created the Daintree National Park (and got it world heritage listing), protected the Tasmanian Wilderness, and who limited the number of uranium mines.
It was Labor who passed the Endangered Species Protection Act in 1992, which got the ball rolling on systematic federal funding of endangered species recovery plans.
It was the Rudd/Gillard Govt that got the Tarkine world heritage listing. It was the Rudd/Gillard Govt that ratified the Kyoto protocol, kicked off the renewable energy industry, and tried to to take action on climate change.
The Greens had a little to do with some of these, hindered some others, but on the whole all of these would’ve happened with or without the Greens.
Yes, Labor has a flawed record on environmental rhetoric, but whether the Greens stick around or disappear, Labor will continue on as the party that actually delivers on environmental protection.
Andrews to challenge for the Liberal leadership.
Turnbull and Morrison told to sort out their relationship.
If you can’t govern yourselves you can’t govern the country. This mob really do need to be sent packing.
2948
Airlines
The G’s did unusually well at the Senate re-run in 2014. This is highly unlikely to be repeated. In the area where I live – the NW suburbs – the G’s scored about 10% of the PV in the 2013 election in the Reps. It’s hard to find Green voters around here these days. Maybe they will scrape into double figures but most likely not. I would expect that a significant share of G-support and PUP-support will shift to Labor this time, along with past Lib-support too.
dtt,
The more you write the less credibility you have.
What is going to be interesting will be voter reaction to the news over the last few days.
Not sure that will be showing up in polls yet. Our first clue may be QandA tonight.
We have had the LNP now promising to do the exact opposite to what they campaigned on of no cuts to health education etc. Instead they now want to cut all public education funding.
They are in denial about the cutting to health as well. Then today we had the Panama Papers and until we see Four Corners tonight the real impact will not be felt.
An indication of this is that the entire panel on the Drum tonight was scathing of Turnbull on his stunt over the Coag meeting.
This is truly the time of people fighting back against all the power of the 1%. It is going to be clear to the population that the choice is either vote for the LNP and the supporting of the 1% or vote LNP last and see a government in place that puts people first.
Mr Shorten is spot on with his use of that slogan this is truly that election.
Apologies for my error in my previous post, the Tarkine still has not been listed.
briefly, 2962
Can you reference me a poll that shows the Greens below 8.7% federally or below 8.4% on a state level?
I’ll add that it has to be recent to the above.
The Morgan poll is surprising but we will see what newspoll gives up, the Coalition could not possible go up after the last couple of weeks, I will take it but it would not be deserved and very worrying for the ALP.
ratsak
That should have been up to $500 per month. For some it might just be $250/month.
IH8 ShockJox @IH8SHOKJOKS · 13h13 hours ago
Alan Jones says mood in the Lib party is diabolical. Turnbull called Mr 5yards. He enters a room & within 5yrds he’s changed his mind
Colvinius: ‘Does he know what he’s doing?’ Fear and loathing in the Coalition https://t.co/0z2ibfQNPo via @FinancialReview
[The Greens had a little to do with some of these, hindered some others, but on the whole all of these would’ve happened with or without the Greens.]
This is the point Boerwar repeatedly makes, yet for some reason people continue to slag him off.
GuardianAus: No way Kevin Andrews would replace Turnbull, says education minister https://t.co/4I7KEgQgkr
[Alan Jones says mood in the Lib party is diabolical. Turnbull called Mr 5yards. He enters a room & within 5yrds he’s changed his mind]
Amusing that the Liberal partyroom is thinking in old fashioned measurements that haven’t been used in AUstralia in decades! 😆
2966
Airlines
In the polls the G’s sit roughly where they were at the time of the last elections, as measured by bludgertrack. These measures likely over-state their support, if past results are anything to go by. In WA the mood for a change of Government is very strong. Voters can procure this result by voting Labor. This is what they will do. They about one-in-four of those voters who last time voted LNP will vote Labor next time. In some places the shift will be one-in-three. As well, a significant share of those who voted for minor voices last time will also vote Labor if only because this makes a change of Government more likely.
Confessions
Your 2972 is not true. Without the likes of Bob Brown and David Bellamy blockading the Franklin Dam project just as they are coal now the dam would have gone ahead.
The Greens have made a difference in lots of ways. They just do not yet have the numbers to form a government but their trajectory or trend is on the going up side.
I think this will in the end be at the expense of the LNP not Labor because Labor are not in denial.
This is why I predict that one day it will be Labor and the Greens as the two majors with the LNP seen as a dodgy brothers party of not much relevance.
I just do not know how far away that one day is.
briefly
I am not sure that anything happening in WA translates fully to the east coast.
I had expected that following the senate debate the greens would take an electoral hit here in Qld. Did not happen. In my neck of the woods they got a HUGE positive swing. we are talking 5-10% swing in many many booths. I mean climbing from 19% polling at the last federal election to 29% polling in the council. Now there may be explanatory factors eg low voter turn out, but still it is significant. 21/36 booths had Greens ahead of Labor.
briefly, 2975
No they don’t. In Bludgertrack, the Greens are up 2.3% (to 11%). In the WA Bludgertrack which William recently posted, the Greens are well above 10% (around what I’d presume to be 12% or 13%). I ask again, where are these polls that you speak of that have the Greens “roughly where they were at the time of the last elections”?
I think the greens are not facing up to how strongly previous supporters are upset about them teaming up with the LNP to attempt to rid the senate of those Independent Senators who have resisted the worst aspects of LNP – IPA changes.
It may well be that the greens vote will be down by 2% at the next election. They will struggle to have volunteers for handing out How to Votes at the booths here in Hinkler. This will seriously reduce their Senate % too.
guytaur:
What about my remarks are untrue? Are you saying a) Boerwar doesn’t repeatedly make these observations about the Greens’ influence, or that b) other commenters don’t constantly have a go at him for it? Because I’m sure the next time Boerwar comments about the Greens there will be elements of a) which will draw responses of the likes of b)
I love the “not dead yet” cries of the Greens as they sink in to the cess pit of irrelevance.
ausdavo, 2979
There’s no proof of this in polling whatsoever.
“In the polls the G’s sit roughly where they were at the time of the last elections, as measured by bludgertrack.”
From bludgertrack above:
Greens
currently 11%
last week -.6%
since election +2.5%
For comparison:
ALP
currently 33.8%
last week +.2%
since election +.4%
confessions, 2980
The difference is Jimmy put it in a very calm and measured way, whereas Boerwar acts like a bull in a china shop.
Airlines there wont be in the Polls the Greens always do better in Polls and drop at election time always been the case.
[It may well be that the greens vote will be down by 2% at the next election.]
For some reason the Greens seem to poll better in between-elections polling than they do at the actual election itself. A reverse ‘Shy Tory’ effect perhaps? ‘Bolshie Green’?
Steelydan, 2985
Regardless, you would assume that there would be a drop in the Greens polling directly after the Senate reforms – the Greens vote isn’t inflated at a fixed rate, it fluctuates like every other party’s polling numbers. The fact that the Green vote didn’t go down indicates that there was no voter fallout from the Senate reforms.
Airlines:
It may just be me, but personally I find Boerwar’s frank communication style highly amusing.
Steelydan, 2985
Regardless, you would assume that there would be a drop in the Greens polling directly after the Senate reforms – the Greens vote isn’t inflated at a fixed rate, it fluctuates like every other party’s polling numbers. The fact that the Green vote didn’t go down indicates that there was no voter fallout from the Senate reforms.
Confessions
My point was obvious in my post.
Confessions
My point was obvious in my post.
Airlines:
It may just be me, but personally I find Boerwar’s frank and forthright communication style highly amusing. 🙂
Steelydan, 2985
Regardless, you would assume that there would be a drop in the Greens polling directly after the Senate reforms – the Greens vote isn’t inflated at a fixed rate, it fluctuates like every other party’s polling numbers. The fact that the Green vote didn’t go down indicates that there was no voter fallout from the Senate reforms.
guytaur:
It wasn’t to me, hence my request for clarification.
Sorry about that, the gerbils must have gone haywire.
Polls often over-state the Greens. I listen to the “punters” in the Shopping Centre. Turnbull is on the nose now and the Greens are losing their shine. Shorten is now becoming the only choice for many people.
We’ll see on election night !
Confesssions
Where you reference no influence. Thus my:
[Confessions
Your 2972 is not true. Without the likes of Bob Brown and David Bellamy blockading the Franklin Dam project just as they are coal now the dam would have gone ahead.
The Greens have made a difference in lots of ways. They just do not yet have the numbers to form a government but their trajectory or trend is on the going up side]
[Airlines
Posted Monday, April 4, 2016 at 7:00 pm | Permalink
confessions, 2980
The difference is Jimmy put it in a very calm and measured way, whereas Boerwar acts like a bull in a china shop.]
Sure. The Greens are a China Shop.
[2976
guytaur
Your 2972 is not true. Without the likes of Bob Brown and David Bellamy blockading the Franklin Dam project just as they are coal now the dam would have gone ahead.]
Ah but you have to differentiate between the environmental movement and the Greens. The environmental movement has made an enormous contribution to the welfare of this country, and their achievements are ones that all Australians can be proud of. I respect Bob Brown immensely for his achievements in and out of Parliament, and I commend him for continuing to protest logging in Tasmania.
The environmental movement is always careful to stay at a distance from the Greens as they both have deep ties within the Labor Party and know that it’s Labor that will make environmental progress for the foreseeable future.
ausdavo, 2996
To measure how much the Greens vote is overstated, we have to look back at previous elections. The Greens vote at previous elections is (for the most part) overstated, but, in federal elections at least, only by 1-2%. This would at worst result in a Greens vote of 9% (on current Bludgertrack numbers) – still better than what they polled last election. I don’t see how you can feasibly predict a figure that is 2% lower than that.