The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records essentially no movement at all on national voting intention for the second week in a row, although the Coalition has at least avoided recording its eighth fall in a row. Reasonable results for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL balanced a particularly bad one from Roy Morgan, which stands out like a sore thumb on the sidebar charts due to the correction made for the pollster’s otherwise pro-Coalition form since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The Greens are down a bit, which it might be tempting to impute to Senate electoral reform, but it would pay to wait another week or two to see if the movement sticks. Only the ReachTEL poll was conducted after Turnbull’s election strategy announcement on Monday, but it produced no obvious evidence that anything had changed. However, there is a bit going on this beneath the surface this week at state level, with the Coalition gaining two seats since last week on the seat projection, but losing one each in Victoria and Queensland. On the leadership ratings, Newspoll has caused Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating to dip ever so gently into negative territory, while Bill Shorten’s continues to slog laboriously upwards, having slowly gained about 10% since the start of the year.
I would normally append this post with a bunch of preselection news and such, but I’ll be changing by MO now the pace has quickened with the inauguration of the phony election campaign. From now on, the news snippets will get their own post at the end of the week – and there will be a very great deal to report so far as preselection goes, with certain tardy state party branches now hurriedly getting their acts together ahead of an assumed July 2 election date. Also, what was formerly “seat of the week” is now “seat du jour”, starting with the entry below for Shortland, since I aim to make these a daily feature from now on. Eventually they will all be rolled together into the regular Poll Bludger’s seat-by-seat election guide.
199
That should read “State and Local”.
[ Re the DD. Having announced to the world that he will go to a DD on 2 July unless the Senate passes his putsy bills, what will be left of Turncoat if they call his bluff and he does not follow through? ]
A hollow empty suit……which is certainly “Continuity”.
Dashed expectations and Disaapointment…..which covers “Change”. 🙂
It’s not a question of whether Arfur, as Treasurer, did or did not know. The fact is that he SHOULD have known. Somebody has to carry the can for this, and it must be Arfur.
Airlines@194
I suspect you are in the industry so you probably know a lot more than most of us.
My knowledge comes from the MSM and TV programs like ‘Air Crash Investigation’. 😀
daretotread
No, fortunately, that poster was not used at my booth.
feeney, 199
I doubt that it would be possible, in FPV or OPV, to overcome a 47% PV – there would be too much preference leakage regardless of system.
[ imacca
Posted Thursday, March 24, 2016 at 1:31 pm | Permalink
Re the DD. Having announced to the world that he will go to a DD on 2 July unless the Senate passes his putsy bills, what will be left of Turncoat if they call his bluff and he does not follow through?
A hollow empty suit……which is certainly “Continuity”.
]
A letter from a reader in todays ‘AGE’ summed him up perfectly :
“Malcolm Turnbull’s box of policies matches his initials …. MT ” ….
bemused
Capital Hill’s also the ABC’s first ‘on’ daily programme that’s solely focused on domestic federal politics.
So Arthur’s imbroglio may have only got passing mention until Jennet could get someone from the Libs to appear and talk about it.
feeney@199
She should do that.
There goes that plan:
[“Just 3 per cent of voters think a company tax cut should be the government’s top economic priority”]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-devastating-poll-shows-just-three-per-cent-of-voters-support-likely-budget-centrepiece-20160324-gnq4t5.html
The LNP are certainly living up to their new slogan “Continuity and Change”.
The specific shambles change daily, but the omnishambles continues unabated!
bemused, 204
Not in the industry, just passionate 🙂
K17
[ Somebody has to carry the can for this, and it must be Arfur. ]
The problem is that when ‘Uncle Arfur’ pleads ignorance, it is very hard not to believe him.
The government is just being innovative and nimble.
Airlines@212
I am probably more interested than most people, but several levels below passionate.
davidwh
[ The government is just being innovative and nimble. ]
This nimble? …
[ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-23/nimble-pay-day-lender-to-refund-customers-asic/7269832 ]
I wonder how long Bluey is going to take to call this day for Labor too.
Poor Shorto must be wondering when the Libs are going to stop stuffing up enough to let him to get out and announce something positive.
We don’t do refunds Player One.
On MH370 – Is Boeing contributing to the cost of the search?
They would seem to be the main beneficiaries of finding the plane.
[Poor Shorto must be wondering when the Libs are going to stop stuffing up enough to let him to get out and announce something positive.]
Does this mean that the serial stuffups and clusterf*cks are just a means of stifling Labor policy announcements?
Nicholas,
Actually I do understand what you say well.
I have actually lived in the US (Boston area) in the past and the thing that struck me the most in the US is the inequality that is so ingrained throughout every aspect the US.
Although I agree to some extent with what you say your response does not answer my question as to why Sanders supporters would prefer a Trump presidency over Clinton.
Name me one issue at all that any progressive voter should care about that Trumps stance is more favourable compared to Clinton?
There is no chance of a Sanders, Elizabeth Warren or Jill Stein presidency within our lifetime so It does seem to me to be a case of biting off your nose to spite your face.
I also think you, in an attempt to criticise Clinton are failing to acknowledge more relevant factors both internally and externally to the US that has caused the inequality you speak of.
To blame Hillary Clinton is to completely and perhaps deliberately miss the point.
Guytaur,
Only a selfish moron would support Trump over Clinton because they somehow think Trump is anti-establishment.
Trump is the embodiment of the US establishment.
Infact you could argue that Sanders is pretty much part of the establishment having been in politics for 40 years.
That is not to say that Clinton is an outsider but anyone with the tiniest understanding of US politics would know that US politics has always and will always be a contest between those in what could be called the establishment.
I appreciate your reply but it does not answer my query as to why some Sanders supporters would prefer Trump over Clinton.
There appears to be nothing rational about that stance at all which is why I suspect that it has more to do with a deep seated misogynistic and racist attitude that these supporters have.
I say racist because Clinton has been closely linked to Obama and has tremendous support from the african american community as opposed to Sanders who has constantly and I would say unfairly criticised Obama and whose support base is predominately college educated, wealthier white people.
I feel that their irrational support for a bigoted, sexist rich white man is a proxy for their own unable to be voiced bigoted views.
Dtt,
You probably know about as much of US politics as I do.
I may of lived in the US but found their political system to be basically bizarre.
I agree that most sanders supporters will turn out to vote for Clinton in the end bacause like my partner the thought of a Cruz or Trump becoming president is too frightening to contemplate.
I disagree with your claim that old white blue collar male voters prefer Clinton.
Most of the things I have read seem to indicate that far and away those over 45, including the working class are backing Clinton.
To me it does appear that the majority (not all) of Sanders support comes from middle to upper class, well educated white people under 30. Not dissimilar to the Greens support base here in Australia.
The reason for that IMO is because many older working class people simply do not believe that Sanders represents them in anyway yet champions causes that they will be paying for and not benefiting from directly such as free University education and despite what some may say they have fond memories of Bill Clintons presidency and their economic circumstances during that time. Which is also why a very large reason why so many Black voters support Clinton.
I am also vary wary of head to head polls for predident taken at this stage.
Some (but not all) polls do show Sanders doing better than Clinton or Kasich beating everyone but these polls are meaningless as they fail to take into account things such as Clintons support being solid after 20 years of vicious attacks whereas Sanders and Kasich are still largely unknown in a national context and I have no doubt that after withstanding the type of attack Clinton has already faced both would be found wanting.
Sanders in particular would make a very easy target for the republicans and their backers like the nefarious Koch brothers.
40 years worth of far left (in US terms) advocacy being combed through and scrutinised and being on the record as a self described socialist would be the gift that keeps giving for the republicans.
Clintons numbers are solid and would only improve against someone like Trump who would fail to gain much support amongst independents who tend to be more astute and thoughtful in how they vote.
LNP slogan – Change and continuity.
A Change in Leader
Continuity of Abbott policies.
Tom.
Ctar and Bemused
I am trying, I really am. 🙂
Airlines
Thanks. I have been wondering for some time how a black box would hold up after such a long time under the sea.
cheers.
Bemused,
That’s funny. I get most my knowledge from shows like that too.
The problem I have with that show is that when I get on a plane all the crashes shown are immediately remembered thus causing more irrational fear than I usually get when flying.
What the fork was Julie Bishop doing in Bali dressed like red-light street hooker This is a majority Moslem country. Not even the blokes are allowed to show that much leg. I don’t mean she needs to wear a head scarf or anything, but some sensitivity to local customs is in order by our Foreign Minister.
I think it was a calculated insult designed to flash cultural superiority. Either that or Julie Bishop is a complete nitwit. Or both
Any diplomat who did this would be sacked.
http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/indonesian-foreign-minister-retno-marsudi-greets-australian-foreign-picture-id517021966
Keneally on PVO giving NSW Libs an absolute pasting!
She is abut the best political commentator I’ve seen for a while (though ALP she is generally fair-minded in her commentary) but on this matter she was spitting chips!
[LNP slogan – Change and continuity.
A Change in Leader
Continuity of Abbott policies.
Tom.]
This wins for the ALP counter to the slogan. Perfect.
feeney
You may be being a bit unfair to the Greens. You would have needed 87% of ALL preferences (including the people decide) to get over the line. So exhausted greens votes were not your problem.
There were about 3% Greens voters who went to Quirk so there goes 15% of your preferences before you even think about exhausted votes.
The liberal candidate got 47.3% and it is next to impossible to stop a candidate this close to a majority.
when are you going to put up the headline MORGAN LABOR 50.5 liberals 49.5 and also an independent poll which shows that the conservatives will lose ten seats in NSW alone. I am waiting
Colton@223
That post @221 was excellent!
I have a son who uses ‘of’ where he should use ‘have’. I have been working on him for a long time.
I am of a generation where the primary schools knocked it out of us at an early age. 😉
[Does this mean that the serial stuffups and clusterf*cks are just a means of stifling Labor policy announcements?]
https://youtu.be/fQk_832EAx4
Colton@225
Well I would be interested in an expert opinion, but I find such shows extremely interesting and accurate within the constraints of the time available.
Scary too when you are going to fly!
Puff
I actualy agree with you. Normally i do not mind what Bishop wears but that was way too short a skirt.
Could they in fact have been SHORTS? A lttle more acceptable. Given that she is NOT wearing stockings I am wondering if it was beach wear.
She would NOT need the scarf in Indonesia. Malaysia perhaps yes but NOT Indonesia.
In a contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton would be the lesser of two evils. She at least has the class to articulate ill-conceived policies in language that isn’t thuggish and redolent of fascism. Her predisposition to disastrous policies would be constrained by the priorities of the Democratic Party – priorities which people like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are reflecting and shaping – and by the conventions of constitutional democracy. Donald Trump is a right- wing nationalist with no obligations to his party and no respect for constitutional norms. He would be exceedingly dangerous if backed by executive authority.
Sorry TPOF, BK
Don’t really want to critic on the great work BK is doing. With what bemused and I noticed on the recopied link is more to be blamed on the way Crikey translates links in comments into how it is displayed on this page.
It converts characters into character codes and confuse the hell out of the Fairfax servers. I guess the blame here is a bit on both servers, but that’s what I think happened.
feeney
Glad to here that you did not use that poster. ALP HO must have had rocks in their skulls or taken the night off and left it to the student politicians (aged 17.5) to design a poster.
Raaraa@236
I certainly didn’t wish to be seen as criticising BKs work and I don’t think anyone else would.
But if he doesn’t get feedback, he may remain oblivious of the problem and not try to fix it.
From posts so far, it seems there are people with a lot more knowledge than me who are in a position to assist BK find a solution.
Of course it only happens when BK is ‘ambushed’ by William. 👿
Most people who had the backing of Obeid and Tripodi would avoid venturing an opinion on corruption but, Keneally, of course, would not.
Nicholas
[…Her predisposition to disastrous policies ]
Oh, you mean those ones Sanders actually voted for?
Puff
there’s also a distinct “Get out of my personal space” vibe in that photo.
bemused
Thanks for the feedback.
When preparing the Dawn Patrol I assemble the links in MS Word and then copy the chunks over to PB. Once done I delete the Word document. On those occasions William “gazzupmps” me by starting off a new thread concurrently I have been copying over the posts from one thread to the other.
In future I’ll try to keep the Word document open for a while.
[40.Most people who had the backing of Obeid and Tripodi would avoid venturing an opinion on corruption but, Keneally, of course, would not.]
Guilt by association, nice – I’m guessing you missed a few lectures.
From a very comfortable distance the overwhelming appearance of NSW is that there was a lot more nasty silly little smears like this, than you know, criminal convictions.
Ken @ 230 the Morgan Poll results were posted on Monday.
In my email:
[Today marks the 72nd Anniversary of the Great Escape from Stalag Luft III which took place on 24/25 March 1944.
As the memory of their bravery lives on, we pay tribute to our men of No. 450 Squadron, SQNLDR John (Willy) Williams and FLT Reginald (Rusty) Kierath, who paid the ulitmate sacrifice on this day, along with their British and Polish counterparts FLTLT Leslie George Bull and Flying Officer Jerzy Mondschein who perished with them at the hands of the Gestapo, after this momentous escape from hell.
For more information on this amazing historical event and the courage of these wonderful men, please go to the following website links.
http://www.450squadronraaf.org.au/the-great-escape.html
http://www.450squadronraaf.org.au/the-great-escape-book.html%5D
My father was in 450 Sqn and knew the men mentioned.
They are remembered.
[43.bemused
Thanks for the feedback.
When preparing the Dawn Patrol I assemble the links in MS Word and then copy the chunks over to PB. Once done I delete the Word document. On those occasions William “gazzupmps” me by starting off a new thread concurrently I have been copying over the posts from one thread to the other.
In future I’ll try to keep the Word document open for a while.]
You should keep an archive – it is / would be a fantastic resource.
BK
You’ll get a much better result if you use Notepad instead of Word. Word tends to add some of it’s own formatting when copying and pasting.
Notepad just uses raw text and doesn’t add anything else.
BK@242
Wise move.
Those West Australian psephologists are not to be trusted.
William is clearly poised and waiting for you to post before he declares ‘new thread’. 😛
Ken Morehouse @230:
[when are you going to put up the headline MORGAN LABOR 50.5 liberals 49.5 and also an independent poll which shows that the conservatives will lose ten seats in NSW alone. I am waiting]
Dude, who gives a shit?
(And, for that matter, what is this “independent” poll you speak of? First I’ve heard of it.)
Colton@161
I think the issue here is that people get overly emotional over their choice of preferred candidate.
I can understand Americans doing it, because it is their country, but Australians who are just spectators on the side, regardless of whether they support Clinton or Sanders, Trump, Cruz or Katich (Cruz seems the most unlikely to have many Australian supporters), sometimes get a bit too carried away.
Once they get a bit too fixated on their preferred candidate seems to be willing play the strawman and start attacking other supporters, to the point it gets really irrational.
I, of course, have my own preferred choice, but to me it’s no big loss regardless of who gets into power.
I’m failing however to see that Sanders supporters only fit a certain party profile, and I’ve seen both Labor and Greens members supporting Sanders here (naturally, seeing that Sanders seems to politically fit somewhere between those two parties here).
I just find it very unlikely that people from among these two groups supporting Trump. It sounds more like some of the 2GB types who I have often heard on talkback saying they prefer Trump.